I think about the same as last year if not more. Last year in a pod cast they said that a Disney rep told them that the free dinning promotion is and has been the most successful promotion they have offered, even though they have offered better money savings offers from past promotions.
So considering the down turn in the economy here in the states and reports that some travel destinations have seen a down turn in their future reservations I think Disney will offer as many discounted promotions as they can sell especially since the Disney Dinning plan is not a great value as it once was.
Also IMHO I think Disney knows that most in the know guest who desire the free dinning promotion will take advantage of the Value Resorts as that is a better deal but will offer the 40% code to get those willing guests to take advantage of a better deal and therefore filling up the moderate/deluxe resorts. I think Disney and there shareholders will be very proud to be filled to near capacity in all their resorts in such an economic time in this country during one of their more slower times of the year.