Fastpass return or replacement?

[maltdizzy]

Except for the fact that touring plans LITERALLY did the math and found it to be true that FP+ did not add to Standby wait times.

IIRC, Touring Plans did the math when FP+ was added to rides (that did not previously have FP) and found it increased Standby wait times by 50-100%. They also calculated that 70+% of ride capacity is assigned to FP.

I believe this is discussed in the interview that Dis did with Len Tesla/TP in 2018.

 

[DougEMG]

I greatly appreciate all the great FP discussion. It is obvious that this topic is somewhat polarizing based on your park touring style.

I’m sure you could add more, but I’m going to classify WDW guests into these groups:

1. Uber planners - people who have ADRs booked at 180-days, have FP booked at 60-days, have at least a general plan for their park day, are able to get multiple FPs after their 3 are used.

2. Moderate Planners - people who booked their ADRs and FP in advance, but don’t necessarily like to be refreshing MDE in their phones all day trying to get more FP. Although they do it at least somewhat.

3. Anti-planners - even though these people have ADRs and FP, they like ultimate flexibility with their schedules and do not like having to plan things so far ahead (even though many of them do because they feel forced to). These people wish you could just change your mind and do whatever you feel like throughout the day and hate that Disney forces them to be more structured than they would like.

4. Newbies and the Uniformed - these are the poor inglorious souls who show up at MK and think they can just walk into Cinderella’s Royal Table fir dinner without a reservation and / or who ask the CM at the entrance at 7DMT how they can get a FP when they see the standby line is 150 minutes and people with FP are scanning their magic bands and walking past the standby queue.

Like i said, you could create more categories but I will go with this list for now. The current state of FP (or lack there of) is a blessing for Group 4 (Newbies & Uninformed). It puts them the closest to an even playing field they will ever get without having to do their homework. They probably will have no idea this is helping them, but perhaps most of them have a better overall park experience.

It sounds like we have some Group 3s in this thread and I understand their point of view. However, I would argue that while these folks might like park touring better without FP, they weren’t harmed as much compared to Group 4 back when FP was active. I would even argue this group was able to get the best of both worlds…they enjoyed FP when they had it but they could also opt to be spontaneous and not feel obliged to over engineer a plan. Of course, I understand if this group felt compelled to get the most out of FP so they could avoid long waits and that maximizing the FP system wasn’t their idea of a vacation.

But for those that fall into Group 1 (and admittedly that’s me), the lack of FP makes going to the park borderline unbearable. I will see how my family does this upcoming trip (Mid-August), but we are scared to death. We are usually the type that are in the parks from open to close each day. We do a ton of table service dining and shopping around our fast passes. We do not do a standby wait if it’s more than 25 minutes - ever. So we either have a FP or are spending money elsewhere. We do dessert parties, fireworks cruises, add-ons galore. We are prepping ourselves to only ride 3 - 4 rides per day because we will not wait in those lines. We will end up back at the pool most days and may go offsite for dinner.

I would guess that a lot of people on these boards fall into Group 1. This group is the most negatively impacted by the lack of FP. It has completely upended the way this group tours. And even amongst this group their is a divide. I would be happy to pay for FP right now because I’m so terrified of going to the park without it. My wife on the other hand, wants to sell our DVC if Disney rolls out a paid only FP system for WDW.

So it’s clear that the lack of FP is helping some but really destroyed WDW for others. I hope the powers that can be can find a balance with the new FP system that gives the planners the ability to plan somewhat but gives the non-planners more opportunity to be spontaneous. But whatever it is - please, please bring back some form of FP back as soon as possible!!!!!

I'm probably fall somewhere between type 1 and 2. We'd normally arrive in the parks around 11, do our 3 FP+, try and get a couple more FP+ and do any standbys that were 20 minutes or less. So the current wait times I am seeing is a total no go for me. My idea of a vacation is not standing in line for 30-60 minutes for a 90 second ride. We've got a trip booked for Nov which will be our first time back since the parks shut down and if things are still the same as now, I'm done with Disney, will get rid of my DVC and go elsewhere for vacation, somewhere were I don't pay to stand in lines all day.

 

[bsmcneil]

My guess personal guesses
97% By next summer
85% by this Christmas
80% by this Thanksgiving
70% by this Halloween
60% by October 1st.
35% by September

I have no insider knowledge and am not Tyler. That said, my guess is that it's more like this:

99% By Jun 1, 2022
80% By Mar 15 (or some selected date for spring breaks)
50% by Jan 1, 2022
40% by this Christmas
40% by this Thanksgiving
33% by this Halloween
33% by October 1st.
10% by September

I'm traveling there Jan 30-Feb 5; so my real guess is that it'll start Feb 6 . ETA: there's so much going on with Oct 1 (and then Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas) that realistically, I don't think they're willing to add something else to the tree that'll make it all topple over. I could be wrong - but I suspect they're expecting crowds to naturally subside with school (and maybe reports of these lines) and then they'll zoom to 2022. But, a new system gives them something to advertise and market through the holidays. I suspect you'll hear all about it during the Christmas parade, etc.

 

[kc51570]

I was at WDW 1 weeks ago as part of a party of 9 - we had a great time…the heat was much more of a problem than the lack of FP

I was there too and what we could normally do in one park day between previously rope dropping and FP combination took a lot of piecemealing It took 3 different visits to MK alone to get all the rides in-what we could have done in one day in the past. Some rides we never got on because of breakdowns at rope drop and being overall tired of getting up at the crack of dawn every day and standing in multiple long lines.
We were having the same heat at home and there was lots of heavy cloud cover so that was not an issue for us.

 

[Mac30188]

While the line length vs speed vs wait time explain how slower standby lines don't extend wait times, it doesn't completely explain why. Here is my best guess on why wait times don't change that much.

Most users will perform a Enjoyment vs. Wait analysis on everything they come across. They look at the wait time and decide;

Is it worth to ride this ride at the cost of the wait time posted on the sign?

This analysis is often performed without any regard to whether there is a Fastpass line or not and the decision is likely the same. For example, a user approaches SDMT, sees a posted wait of 90 minutes and decides not to ride. Here are some potential justifications;

• I don't wait over an hour for any ride.
• I am a thrill ride person. If I am going to wait over an hour it is going to be for a mountain coaster, not some kiddie coaster.
• Look, my phone says if we walk a little further BTMRR has a 17 minute wait. I would rather wait 17 minutes on BTMRR and the do other rides than spend 90 minutes in line for SDMT.
• My touring plan says if we wait 2 hours the line for SDMT will likely drop to 70 minutes.

You see the impact of these decisions impact how the lines grow in the park every day. As more people enter the park the lines grow quickly at first and then their growth start to slow as less and less people see value in jumping in a lengthy standby line. I would imagine if there were no limits of closing time and guests, eventually there becomes a point where so few people see value in waiting that long that it just won't get any longer. They also tour this way regardless of whether their are Fastpass+ lines in place or not. I suspect the first one, "I don't wait over an hour for any ride" is a fairly common evaluation criteria. As most lines for a ride start hitting an hour, the slow considerably and users start extending other rides until others approach an hour.

Therefore, while Fastpass slows the speed of the Standby line, the actual wait times of rides are typically regulated by this value calculation more than they are impacted by Fastpass (thus shorter standby lines with Fastpass). Once rides start hitting an hour, their growth will slow and people will go on to other things. Therefore the Fastpass may impact which individual's ride something, but they may not necessarily extend a standby line's wait time that much.

I suspect every time a user arrives at a ride they want to ride, and then declines to ride because it failed the Wait vs. Enjoyment value calculation, it is a dissatisfier. One or two rides, won't make a huge difference in the guests day, but as more and more calculations fail, the guest's frustration grows until they declare, the park a disaster. At that point the park hoppers jump, the multi-day guests start debating pool time, and the day guests get angry and go home complaining about the waits and feeling ripped off.

 

[deannaf87]

I have no insider knowledge and am not Tyler. That said, my guess is that it's more like this:

99% By Jun 1, 2022
80% By Mar 15 (or some selected date for spring breaks)
50% by Jan 1, 2022
40% by this Christmas
40% by this Thanksgiving
33% by this Halloween
33% by October 1st.
10% by September

I'm traveling there Jan 30-Feb 5; so my real guess is that it'll start Feb 6 . ETA: there's so much going on with Oct 1 (and then Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas) that realistically, I don't think they're willing to add something else to the tree that'll make it all topple over. I could be wrong - but I suspect they're expecting crowds to naturally subside with school (and maybe reports of these lines) and then they'll zoom to 2022. But, a new system gives them something to advertise and market through the holidays. I suspect you'll hear all about it during the Christmas parade, etc.

I do think, unfortunately for those going this fall, this might be a more accurate prediction. October 1 is pretty close, in Disney planning time, and I would think an announcement of FP for that time period would be imminent. Seems like that isn’t the case. I can totally see them just struggling through the rest of the year and implementing something for 2022. I just hope they bring back shows and meet and greets by fall to ease some of the long queue pains.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

So explain to me why people are so desperate for old FastPass+ to return or new FastPass to be announced if it’s going to make wait times even worse?

To be honest, MOST of the people I see who are desperate for FP+ to return are those who have gotten good at "gaming the system". They are the same ones who if you go back and look, do not get their 3 FP+
s and happily enjoy their day. They are the ones who have gotten good at spamming their cell phones are getting 6-8 FP+ (or more) a day. (At some point in their posting career, they brag about how good they were at it. Many wore it as a badge of honor).

As I have said previously, FP+ was a great system for a few people, but a terrible system for Disney's main stream audience. They know this, but have lacked a good direction on how to fix it and a good excuse to rip it out without a fix. The pandemic - among other things - gave Disney an excuse to fix a lot of things they did not like. FP+ was one of them, and I doubt it will return in it's previous form.

From my own experience, I liked that FP+ guaranteed that I could do a few of my favorites. I often benefited because my trips were longer than the average Disney goer, so I could usually score the valuable ones in days 4-7 of my trip (like SDD, FOP, Soarin, and 7DMT). However, I did not game it and typically just used my 3.

At the same time, I did not like FP+ because as a whole, I found it frustrating. It came to a head with me when I was waited in line for Peter Pan. It was a bloody 80 minute wait even though the line was significantly shorter than usual. I ended up waiting over 100 minutes because around the 80 minute mark, I was 2 people from the front of the line and a horde of FP+ showed up and the CM did not let ONE person from the standby line go for almost 15 minutes.

Still, on average I benefited more from FP+ then was hurt by it. By all rights, I should be screaming for it to return. However, personally I am not. As I said, it was good for some, bad for many. It was particularly bad for new visitors or inexperienced visitors and favored those who frequented the parks - which I think is the opposite of what is good for Disney.

I do not know the good way, the right way, or the best way to do it. But I do see both sides of the system, and understand the complexities that Disney has to weigh. TBH no matter what they do, they are going to make people unhappy. The unhappiest will be the louder few on these boards than the average public and it's important to remember that these boards are not a holistic view of the Disney populace.

 

[Wandering Oaken]

To be honest, MOST of the people I see who are desperate for FP+ to return are those who have gotten good at "gaming the system". They are the same ones who if you go back and look, do not get their 3 FP+s and happily enjoy their day. They are the ones who have gotten good at spamming their cell phones are getting 6-8 FP+ (or more) a day. (At some point in their posting career, they brag about how good they were at it. Many wore it as a badge of honor).

As I have said previously, FP+ was a great system for a few people, but a terrible system for Disney's main stream audience. They know this, but have lacked a good direction on how to fix it and a good excuse to rip it out without a fix. The pandemic - among other things - gave Disney an excuse to fix a lot of things they did not like. FP+ was one of them, and I doubt it will return in it's previous form.

From my own experience, I liked that FP+ guaranteed that I could do a few of my favorites. I often benefited because my trips were longer than the average Disney goer, so I could usually score the valuable ones in days 4-7 of my trip (like SDD, FOP, Soarin, and 7DMT). However, I did not game it and typically just used my 3.

At the same time, I did not like FP+ because as a whole, I found it frustrating. It came to a head with me when I was waited in line for Peter Pan. It was a bloody 80 minute wait even though the line was significantly shorter than usual. I ended up waiting over 100 minutes because around the 80 minute mark, I was 2 people from the front of the line and a horde of FP+ showed up and the CM did not let ONE person from the standby line go for almost 15 minutes.

Still, on average I benefited more from FP+ then was hurt by it. By all rights, I should be screaming for it to return. However, personally I am not. As I said, it was good for some, bad for many. It was particularly bad for new visitors or inexperienced visitors and favored those who frequented the parks - which I think is the opposite of what is good for Disney.

I do not know the good way, the right way, or the best way to do it. But I do see both sides of the system, and understand the complexities that Disney has to weigh. TBH no matter what they do, they are going to make people unhappy. The unhappiest will be the louder few on these boards than the average public and it's important to remember that these boards are not a holistic view of the Disney populace.

Not me. I desperately want FP+ back and as God as my witness I do not remember a time when I "gamed the system" by going back for more FP's. I took the ones I had and was very content with that.

 

[krybandt]

To be honest, MOST of the people I see who are desperate for FP+ to return are those who have gotten good at "gaming the system". They are the same ones who if you go back and look, do not get their 3 FP+s and happily enjoy their day. They are the ones who have gotten good at spamming their cell phones are getting 6-8 FP+ (or more) a day. (At some point in their posting career, they brag about how good they were at it. Many wore it as a badge of honor).

Maybe not enough of us amateurs are speaking up because we loved FP+ and rarely got more than the first round. It allowed us to take breaks (and spend money in the parks) instead of waiting in lines all day. I don't want to pay for it, but that's another issue.

At the same time, I did not like FP+ because as a whole, I found it frustrating. It came to a head with me when I was waited in line for Peter Pan. It was a bloody 80 minute wait even though the line was significantly shorter than usual. I ended up waiting over 100 minutes because around the 80 minute mark, I was 2 people from the front of the line and a horde of FP+ showed up and the CM did not let ONE person from the standby line go for almost 15 minutes.

Was this a normal experience, to wait ~15 minutes without a CM letting one single standby rider on? I've definitely waited in FP lines while they let standby riders through. That experience would aggravate me too.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Not me. I desperately want FP+ back and as God as my witness I do not remember a time when I "gamed the system" by going back for more FP's. I took the ones I had and was very content with that.

I said most, not all. You are a duly noted exception, my friend. As I mentioned, I never "gamed" it either, but as a whole, I benefited from it and I liked certain aspects about it. It was "good for me", but I still argue it favored those who frequented the parks more than the once in a generation average Disney goer.

 

[BrianL]

Was this a normal experience, to wait ~15 minutes without a CM letting one single standby rider on? I've definitely waited in FP lines while they let standby riders through. That experience would aggravate me too.

It could happen when the FP line got extremely backed up. At rides like 7DMT they would make an announcement to standby about the wait being longer than had been posted and it was because of an influx of FP riders all at once. It doesn't always happen though and usual protocol was to still take a few from standby even when there were some FP guests.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

*replying to my experience in a standby line where FP+ was let through for over 15 minutes without a single draw from standby*

Was this a normal experience, to wait ~20 minutes without a CM letting one single standby rider on? I've definitely waited in FP lines while they let standby riders through. That experience would aggravate me too.

I'll be honest - that was a one off for me. I have seen less pronounced versions, but on average I would expect the CM's to pull from FP+ more frequently than standby. This was really the first time I had seen a CM pull NO ONE from standby for 15 minutes and only pull from FP+. I suspect it was a new CM (or at least a poorly trained one). It would be reasonable to say my frustration with the system in remembering this one experience is a bit unfair as it was the CM who was the problem, not the system.

Still, I will maintain that on the whole, the system benefited the experienced Disney go-er more than their target audience.

 

[kanerf]

I do think that Disney needs to provide an advantage to guests and DVC members who stay on site. The prices are 2-3 times what they are outside the gates and what benefits are we currently getting?

 

[Lisse24]

That study was paper fast pass vs fast pass+...

I believe that study looked at average waits, too. In which case it's important to remember that:
The average of 5, 5, & 5 is 5
&
The average of 2, 6, & 7 is also 5

While lines are dealing with larger numbers, it would be faulty to look at average numbers and conclude that if waits for one person are decreased waits for another are not increased.

I imagine it is because FP gives you those 3 rides where you have a minimal wait. But most don't factor in how much longer the other lines are to compensate. it "feels" like you are waiting less. Why do some people buy the dining plan when it actually costs them more money then if they paid OOP? Humans are weird.

Yeah, so this is important. People prefer to feel like they're not waiting. There've been multiple people in this thread and the previous one who said they didn't mind the longer stand-by waits as much because they were moving the whole time. This is actually a known psychological phenomenon and a valid reason to rejigger FP+ if standby lines were slowed to a point where the lack of movement really wore down the people in standby.

Video on line psychology:

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I do think that Disney needs to provide an advantage to guests and DVC members who stay on site. The prices are 2-3 times what they are outside the gates and what benefits are we currently getting?

This is a very different topic, and again one I see both sides on.

For DVC, what we are getting is what we paid for. We paid for a hotel - nothing more. It is in fact explicitly stated in our contract that we are not paying for any benefits such as the ability to ride certain rides.

ON THE OTHER HAND, as a DVC member, I often feel that I would like to be part of "the Disney IN". I have dedicated a significant amount of my income to Disney, and I think that benefits should come with that. Does that benefit HAVE to be in the form of FP+? Certainly not. In fact, the value of FP's goes down the longer you are a DVC owner. But I am constantly frustrated that Disney has been eroding the benefit of staying onsite with the inclusion of good neighbor hotels.

Again though, I think the idea of benefiting onsite guests and deluxe resort guests is a sperate conversation from whether FP+ should return.

 

[Missingmypooh]

I believe that study looked at average waits, too. In which case it's important to remember that:
The average of 5, 5, & 5 is 5
&
The average of 2, 6, & 7 is also 5

While lines are dealing with larger numbers, it would be faulty to look at average numbers and conclude that if waits for one person are decreased waits for another are not increased.




Yeah, so this is important. People prefer to feel like they're not waiting. There've been multiple people in this thread and the previous one who said they didn't mind the longer stand-by waits as much because they were moving the whole time. This is actually a known psychological phenomenon and a valid reason to rejigger FP+ if standby lines were slowed to a point where the lack of movement really wore down the people in standby.

Video on line psychology:

Exactly this. There is intense study done on tiny things like the distance of tiles on the floor, and how many registers are open/in place, and the size of the carts etc (all in relation to lines/ shopping).

we know there’s an algo for ROTR boarding passes and DVC/annual pass/day tickets and it’s likely that whatever Disney is making is taking some time.

the “limbo” between the scarcity/FOMO about the fastpasses coming back and impacting the trip is causing a lot of anxiety (hence these threads derailing).

 

[CSLucas]

Therefore, while Fastpass slows the speed of the Standby line, the actual wait times of rides are typically regulated by this value calculation more than they are impacted by Fastpass (thus shorter standby lines with Fastpass). Once rides start hitting an hour, their growth will slow and people will go on to other things. Therefore the Fastpass may impact which individual's ride something, but they may not necessarily extend a standby line's wait time that much.

I think this is spot-on for when the parks are running normally. Right now, though, there aren't enough other things for people to do, which is why I think we are seeing such long wait times (and which is also the reason adding FP back right now wouldn't work IMO)

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

While the line length vs speed vs wait time explain how slower standby lines don't extend wait times, it doesn't completely explain why. Here is my best guess on why wait times don't change that much.

Most users will perform a Enjoyment vs. Wait analysis on everything they come across. They look at the wait time and decide;

Is it worth to ride this ride at the cost of the wait time posted on the sign?

This analysis is often performed without any regard to whether there is a Fastpass line or not and the decision is likely the same. For example, a user approaches SDMT, sees a posted wait of 90 minutes and decides not to ride. Here are some potential justifications;

• I don't wait over an hour for any ride.
• I am a thrill ride person. If I am going to wait over an hour it is going to be for a mountain coaster, not some kiddie coaster.
• Look, my phone says if we walk a little further BTMRR has a 17 minute wait. I would rather wait 17 minutes on BTMRR and the do other rides than spend 90 minutes in line for SDMT.
• My touring plan says if we wait 2 hours the line for SDMT will likely drop to 70 minutes.

You see the impact of these decisions impact how the lines grow in the park every day. As more people enter the park the lines grow quickly at first and then their growth start to slow as less and less people see value in jumping in a lengthy standby line. I would imagine if there were no limits of closing time and guests, eventually there becomes a point where so few people see value in waiting that long that it just won't get any longer. They also tour this way regardless of whether their are Fastpass+ lines in place or not. I suspect the first one, "I don't wait over an hour for any ride" is a fairly common evaluation criteria. As most lines for a ride start hitting an hour, the slow considerably and users start extending other rides until others approach an hour.

Therefore, while Fastpass slows the speed of the Standby line, the actual wait times of rides are typically regulated by this value calculation more than they are impacted by Fastpass (thus shorter standby lines with Fastpass). Once rides start hitting an hour, their growth will slow and people will go on to other things. Therefore the Fastpass may impact which individual's ride something, but they may not necessarily extend a standby line's wait time that much.

I suspect every time a user arrives at a ride they want to ride, and then declines to ride because it failed the Wait vs. Enjoyment value calculation, it is a dissatisfier. One or two rides, won't make a huge difference in the guests day, but as more and more calculations fail, the guest's frustration grows until they declare, the park a disaster. At that point the park hoppers jump, the multi-day guests start debating pool time, and the day guests get angry and go home complaining about the waits and feeling ripped off.

The last few sentences perfectly described our April 2021 (even the part about BTMRR, which I rode 2 times and still have yet to ride 7DMT). I booked Boo Bash tickets just so my kids can ride the rides they missed out on at MK and the rides we would normally FP.

That being said, I was so mad when they originally got rid of FP for FP +. I wouldn't be totally opposed to going back to the old system.

 

[Wandering Oaken]

The last few sentences perfectly described our April 2021 (even the part about BTMRR, which I rode 2 times and still have yet to ride 7DMT). I booked Boo Bash tickets just so my kids can ride the rides they missed out on at MK and the rides we would normally FP.

That being said, I was so mad when they originally got rid of FP for FP +. I wouldn't be totally opposed to going back to the old system.

If you mean the paper FP's then I definitely would mind that. That was such a fiasco. People running from rope drop, people getting knocked down by others trying to get to the machines, the machines breaking, CM's just handing out 10-20 FP's to someone who is just there as a party of two who lied to the CM, etc. Too many issues to bring that monster back.

 

[Mac30188]

I think this is spot-on for when the parks are running normally. Right now, though, there aren't enough other things for people to do, which is why I think we are seeing such long wait times (and which is also the reason adding FP back right now wouldn't work IMO)

I agree and believe you are spot on. It won't change the wait times. For the same reason they don't hurt, they don't help either. I agree the only way to shorten lines is add attractions or reduce guests.

What they do is change guest behavior and give guests a break from standing in line. Right now it is an endurance test. The only way to take advantage of the park's entertainment is a neverending series of lines. Faspass gives guests a few times a day where they do not feel driven to run to the next line.

In addition, Fastpass will also take advantage of current ride queue designs and get people out of the sun.

While I don't think it will solve long lines, it will improve guest's overall experience.