Farmer's Almanac/Weather

[Innerpc]

Does anyone have a Farmer's Almanac? I'd like to know what the weather will be on our cruise - 7/31/04 - Western Magic.

Thank you!
Mandy

 

[TinkHappy]

I wouldn't put too much faith into the FA...I looked at it for winter cruising this past Feb. FA said it was going to be a terrible winter with a lot of snow storms. It WAS very cold, but we only had maybe 3 big snow storms. It wasn't as bad as last winter. Although it is fun to look, I would say that it is not always correct.

 

[The4OfUs]

When I was in college, persuing my degree in meteorology, my professor told us that anything outside of 36 hours is only about (in his estimation) 30% accurate...and I've never forgotten that.

Farmer's Almanac is not the way to go unless you're looking for tide/mood information. You want the climatology of an area (the average accumulated over however long they have kept records...years, decades, centuries, the longer the better), because believing a weather forecast for the following weekend on the current one is already a risk. Then again, I used to revel in the fact that I got paid, right or not... *grin* Then again, when I moved out of the "forecast" dept. and into the online weather website dept, and answered questions via email, I was often berated by visitors who could not understand WHY I could not give them a forecast for their wedding day next year at 10am near such and such church. Again, I'd refer them to the climatology of the area for a better idea of what to expect.

Here's a good starting point for that:

http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html

 

[Innerpc]

Thank you for the information. Very interesting website that you mentioned. Okay, how about this..... could you tell me what the weather will MOST LIKELY be like??? Or maybe you can look in your chrystal ball for me??? I bet you get this from alot of people!!! I just want the weather to be good. We went to Kauai last spring and it was cold. It was so disappointing.

Mandy

 

[The4OfUs]

*grin* I don't get the question much anymore, as being a meteorologist is not a family friendly career...strange hours, no consistancy, I'd equate it to being a nurse, with rotating shifts where I worked and so on. I'm a webmaster now, but you're right, I do get the questions from time to time and like to flex that "weather muscle" when I can (including talking at the kids' schools). Sooo, with that in mind, here's what I found for the Western in July.

Key West:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/HTML/climate/eywclimate.html

You're looking at average highs in the mid to upper 80s, average lows in the 70s, and rainfall about 15 days of the month, but it seems that most rainfall is light on average.

Grand Cayman
http://www.gov.ky/servlet/page?_pageid=2353&_dad=portal30&_schema=PORTAL30&_mode=3

Pretty much the same, but with more chance of rain than Key West according to the stats on that site. October is the worst in terms of chance of rain.

Cozumel
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/climatology/monthly/MXQR0074

You're looking good here too, although keep in mind that the dew point temp. is not noted (the dew point is what is important in terms of what it'll FEEL like. Dew points over 70 tend to make it VERY uncomfortable for people...) so while it says ave. high of 87, a high dew point, which means a humid day, can make it feel hotter. But isn't that why we go to these places?

Castaway Cay does not have an official weather station on it, therefore no official weather records. Freeport, on Grand Bahama Island, has one... http://www.grand-bahama.com/climate.htm That's pretty close to what you'll find.

In any event, I don't think cold will be an issue in July...enjoy your trip!!!

 

[Innerpc]

Thank you! Thank you! You are awesome!

Mandy