Fantasyland & Avatar "blown" / compared to WWOHP (Really)? + Star Wars Land thoughts

[SalutemyShorts]

If I'm talking to 20th Century Fox give me the revitalized Planet of the Apes instead of Avatar. Want to wage a bet on which film advertisers will roll their eyes at when we start talking costs for showing a commercial? And which one Fox will charge more for on a license to distribute? Granted this discussion is sliding somewhat away from our earlier topic but it's nice to speculate.

Actually, if Avatar is FX's highest viewed movie then the advertisers won't laugh at it at all. They'll gladly pay FX's price for Avatar in order to reach that audience, they're not going to just pick a movie because it's newer if it isn't garnering a larger audience. I work in television and all they mostly care about what show or movie has the highest rating point. This is why our stations can charge move for reruns of the Blacklist than first run episodes of most CW shows.

 

[wallrock]

Disney will recoup the cost the same way they recoup the cost of any other attraction, increased attendance in the park. You say you don't personally consider Avatar to be a valuable IP, but by virtue of it's $2.7B box office, and Cameron's name being attached to it, it would be considered a very valuable IP to some.

Personally I like the Avatar idea, but I am in no way trying to say this is a slam dunk for Disney. I agree with those that have said it doesn't still have much cultural relevance. I am just trying to make case that there doesn't need to have been any financial incentive from Cameron for this deal to have happened.

I just don't think that there will be a significant increase in attendance for that product, but that's a wait and see. I too have no issue with Avatar coming into the park, but without the merchandising extras Disney has to think about where the profit is coming from. If they funded the whole thing then there has to be something out there that screams a stock price increase.

And again, it's more than just the tickets sold in the theater. An IP's 'value' goes up when it generates revenue over the long haul. How much revenue did Star Wars generate yesterday? How about Harry Potter? I bet each of those IPs generated more money in the last week than Avatar has in six months. Avatar's value was big, but only for the time it was in the theater and the first days the DVD went on sale. After that it dropped off a cliff.

Will the sequels bring it back? Who knows. If I were a betting man I'd say they will make a few bucks, but nowhere near what the original did. Not sure if that is going to be enough staying power to make Avatar a valuable IP.

 

[wallrock]

Actually, if Avatar is FX's highest viewed movie then the advertisers won't laugh at it at all. They'll gladly pay FX's price for Avatar in order to reach that audience, they're not going to just pick a movie because it's newer if it isn't garnering a larger audience. I work in television and all they mostly care about what show or movie has the highest rating point. This is why our stations can charge move for reruns of the Blacklist than first run episodes of most CW shows.

As I said, I don't watch television. If older films give them a higher viewership then so be it.

 

[ahoyle]

So we all agree that we dont know the details of the agreement between Disney and Cameron?

We all agree Avatar is less valuable than HP or SW?

We all agree normal licensing deals involves company x paying company y for use of said property?

Yet some process that information and conclude Cameron and Fox are paying for development. I dont know how you can logically get there...but no point in arguing it further.

I wonder how many people on here that dismiss Avatar also argue how great Disney is by using attendance figures?

 

[dinolounger]

It doesn't matter, really. If the rides and themed land are awesome...it's a hit.

Oh, I see. As long as there's some generic scenery, a lot of flashy effects, noise and some G forces, a theme park attraction is a hit.

Yep, a familiar, beloved backstory and a related, engaging narrative have nothing to do with it.

Welcome to the new Disney strategy: replicate Six Flags.

 

[Suger Mag]

Oh, I see. As long as there's some generic scenery, a lot of flashy effects, noise and some G forces, a theme park attraction is a hit.

Yep, a familiar, beloved backstory and a related, engaging narrative have nothing to do with it.

Welcome to the new Disney strategy: replicate Six Flags.

Space Mountain is a great example of the kind of ride you are talking about... nope, not a popular ride at all

I am very excited for the new land, who cares about the movie... saw it, it provides a visual in my head, but it will be what I experience when I actually visit AK that makes it or breaks it, but I will visit it.

When it comes to Pandora, sometimes it seems folks just want to argue each side. The thing is, there are success stories for each argument. Many of WDW's most beloved rides have very little major back story... and some of WDW's other most beloved rides have major film backstory. End of the day, if the ride/experiences are imagineered well ... and especially if it has new exciting technology (which many are expecting with the Pandora land)... it will be VERY popular.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Oh, I see. As long as there's some generic scenery, a lot of flashy effects, noise and some G forces, a theme park attraction is a hit.

Yep, a familiar, beloved backstory and a related, engaging narrative have nothing to do with it.

Welcome to the new Disney strategy: replicate Six Flags.

Interesting take and I agree to a certain extent...

Disney's most popular longterm rides have been ones Where the theme/stories are just as popular as the ride themselves.

Cases in point...small world and pirates.

Does anyone think peter Pans flight would have an hour wait if people didnt love Peter Pan?

What's funny is defenders of all things Disney have an array of excuses...

With avatar ( unattractive IP)... It's "if they build
It right... Everybody will love it"

When Disney was doing nothing and universal starting adding/building things... It's "well... Sure they can build rides, but only Disney can do immersive theming"

And when universal took great IP, Harry potter, and made great theming and impressive technology and has trumped anything Disney has done for nearly 20 years...it's "Disney is so much bigger and better that they don't NEED to waste time doing that"

Hmmm...lots of Excuse...it seems. But excuses
From fans only protect Disney profits.

 

[Andrew015]

And again, it's more than just the tickets sold in the theater. An IP's 'value' goes up when it generates revenue over the long haul. How much revenue did Star Wars generate yesterday? How about Harry Potter? I bet each of those IPs generated more money in the last week than Avatar has in six months. Avatar's value was big, but only for the time it was in the theater and the first days the DVD went on sale. After that it dropped off a cliff.

Will the sequels bring it back? Who knows. If I were a betting man I'd say they will make a few bucks, but nowhere near what the original did. Not sure if that is going to be enough staying power to make Avatar a valuable IP.

Interesting points. My only thought is this:

• Avatar Sequel is rumored to be in the works for 2016/2017
• AvatarLand is scheduled to open ~2017

This is all about timing, and the bet is (and this is quite the large gamble)... that Avatar 2 spurs interest in AvatarLand, and in parallel, the Disney marketing machine kicks into full gear with Avatarland, which in turn, drives further demand for the movie. The two coupled together, along with some flashy new merchandise for AK, are the beginning of a new franchise. I think this all depends on timing, and it could potentially pay off big, but is quite a large, uncharacteristic risk for Disney. Avatar has little IP value (no merchandise, toys, etc.) beyond the movie, but that could change in a big way if this grand plan comes together as outlined above...

 

[twebber55]

history tells us to bet on Jim Cameron both in terms of the next movie but also the new land

I always go back to this..if there was no Avatar movie and Disney said we re teaming up with jim Cameron to make this fictional land with floating mtns and bio luminescent flora and fauna people would be fine with this project

WWOHP works because they re not really telling a story but more so immersing you in the land so people who never saw HP could enjoy the land

 

[lockedoutlogic]

history tells us to bet on Jim Cameron both in terms of the next movie but also the new land

I always go back to this..if there was no Avatar movie and Disney said we re teaming up with jim Cameron to make this fictional land with floating mtns and bio luminescent flora and fauna people would be fine with this project

WWOHP works because they re not really telling a story but more so immersing you in the land so people who never saw HP could enjoy the land

I'll bet that avatar 2 does significantly less box office - 50-60% best case scenario - than the original.

We've talked about this before... Avatar fell into kinda a perfect storm of 3D, mainstream purchase of the HD TV, and soft competition. Don't even discount newfound interest into environmentalism in the US due to government change.

Reminds me of the vacuum that was around TITANIC as well.

You know what was titanics main competition in the theater? Kevin costner's classic The Postman. I remember it well.

Anyway...avatar 2 will sell early tickets en masse...but then what happens after 3 weeks?

Recent history tells us that this one will come in well under the initial haul. If you have an excellent story on the first film... The second will get a bump. Iron man and POTC being good examples. If the first movie is a craze...much harder to replicate.

When the phantom movie came out... 30 years of suppressed Star Wars lust was unleashed. Everybody ran out and saw it...then saw it again to figure out how it was good. But it sucked...so the gross fell on the following train wrecks.

Batman begins was a really good movie... Dark night was fantastic...but Rises was hurt in the box office because it wasnt quite as good.

Avengers 2 won't sniff what one did. Huge gross...but it will fall short.

So it seems like Disney is making a commitment to a somewhat risky property...yet they don't care.

Hmmmm...I wonder why???

 

[twebber55]

I'll bet that avatar 2 does significantly less box office - 50-60% best case scenario - than the original.

We've talked about this before... Avatar fell into kinda a perfect storm of 3D, mainstream purchase of the HD TV, and soft competition. Don't even discount newfound interest into environmentalism in the US due to government change.

Reminds me of the vacuum that was around TITANIC as well.

You know what was titanics main competition in the theater? Kevin costner's classic The Postman. I remember it well.

Anyway...avatar 2 will sell early tickets en masse...but then what happens after 3 weeks?

Recent history tells us that this one will come in well under the initial haul. If you have an excellent story on the first film... The second will get a bump. Iron man and POTC being good examples. If the first movie is a craze...much harder to replicate.

When the phantom movie came out... 30 years of suppressed Star Wars lust was unleashed. Everybody ran out and saw it...then saw it again to figure out how it was good. But it sucked...so the gross fell on the following train wrecks.

Batman begins was a really good movie... Dark night was fantastic...but Rises was hurt in the box office because it wasnt quite as good.

Avengers 2 won't sniff what one did. Huge gross...but it will fall short.

So it seems like Disney is making a commitment to a somewhat risky property...yet they don't care.

Hmmmm...I wonder why???

so you re saying avatar is gonna do 1.4 billion ranking it above frozen all time yet will be unpopular and a failure?

when avatar came out it did 77 million and the amazing thing is the second weekend it didn't drop (unheard of for movies)

word of mouth was incredible

but I guess we ll see

 

[lockedoutlogic]

so you re saying avatar is gonna do 1.4 billion ranking it above frozen all time yet will be unpopular and a failure?

when avatar came out it did 77 million and the amazing thing is the second weekend it didn't drop (unheard of for movies)

word of mouth was incredible

but I guess we ll see

When was it released and what were #2-5 that week?

If your gonna make a history argument... You have to put it in historic context.

And I said "best case scenario"...
I'm Guessing 300 domestic and 800 or so global is much more in the ballpark. Which is a
Huge success but way down.

And I remember word of mouth...I was told "you gotta go see it in 3D"
Which I did...

Funny thing is neither I nor the person who told me can remember ANYTHING about it.

 

[twebber55]

When was it released and what were #2-5 that week?

If your gonna make a history argument... You have to put it in historic context.

And I said "best case scenario"...
I'm Guessing 300 domestic and 800 or so global is much more in the ballpark. Which is a
Huge success but way down.

And I remember word of mouth...I was told "you gotta go see it in 3D"
Which I did...

Funny thing is neither I nor the person who told me can remember ANYTHING about it.

domestic numbers
released Dec 20009
week 2 75 000 000 (#2 all time)
week 3 68 000 000(#1 all time)
week 4 50 000 000 (#1 all time)
week 5 42 000 000 (#1 all time)

and it doesn't really matter if you or I remember it or that you don't like it
millions of people do and there is lots of evidence of the influence it had around the world
like
http://www.weather.com/travel/tourists-flock-chinas-avatar-national-park-photos-20130926

 

[lockedoutlogic]

domestic numbers
released Dec 20009
week 2 75 000 000 (#2 all time)
week 3 68 000 000(#1 all time)
week 4 50 000 000 (#1 all time)
week 5 42 000 000 (#1 all time)

and it doesn't really matter if you or I remember it or that you don't like it
millions of people do and there is lots of evidence of the influence it had around the world
like
http://www.weather.com/travel/tourists-flock-chinas-avatar-national-park-photos-20130926

I was asking what the competition was...not avatars gross over time. No decline indicated no competition. Which was the case.

But into numbers:

Avatar set a record by grossing 9.5% of
It's opening weekend take in IMAX...on only 3% of the screens.

Also...domestically...about 2,100 screens of a total 3,500 were in 3D... Again a record at the time and an astounding 55-60% in 3D...

Hmmmm....it sure seems like perhaps the spectacle was the draw.
But I'm no roger Ebert

And...lol...that park area in china has had a steady uptick in visitors due to increase in access and facilities since 1982. The avatar bump is a bit of a red herring...it's a
Beautiful area that the movie used in the worlds most populace country with the largest economy.

Are you suggesting they built 854 hotels (double what was built for wdw or Vegas) and 55,000 hotel rooms due to avatar fever? That's a hoot.

The "I must see avatar...lets go to china!" Sect is overstated.
Might want to get your articles from the NYT...not TWC.

 

[Broker]

Is there a thread that can explain what they have planned for avatarland? I'm very interested but can't find much.

 

[twebber55]

Is there a thread that can explain what they have planned for avatarland? I'm very interested but can't find much.

http://www.slashfilm.com/first-look-avatar-land-at-disneyworlds-animal-kingdom/

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Is there a thread that can explain what they have planned for avatarland? I'm very interested but can't find much.

Officially? Just the storyboard concepts posted in the previous post...

There also have been rumors (just that... Rumors) that WDI is having problems with Cameron...which would shock no one

 

[Broker]

Officially? Just the storyboard concepts posted in the previous post...

There also have been rumors (just that... Rumors) that WDI is having problems with Cameron...which would shock no one

I totally understand that. I also understand to want to keep his interests quality. I hope this gets done and gets done right.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Officially? Just the storyboard concepts posted in the previous post...

There also have been rumors (just that... Rumors) that WDI is having problems with Cameron...which would shock no one

I think this is a given in any such relationship, and doubly expected with James Cameron. It is also very, very, good news!

Cameron is a genius inventor and crazy perfectionist. This is his legacy and he will make sure it is good. In their heart-of-hearts the imagineers are having a blast pushing boundaries while management wants to reign things in and watch costs. However Cameron surely kept control and is pushing and pushing.

That is why I am so stoked for this to open. All those who complain about Disney not going far enough with new rides and expansion should love that Cameron is involved.

Look at that link. This is going to be good. The amazing world of Pandora is what was popular around the world and made so much money. Can't wait for 2. Not because I expect a great deep story, but because we will be wowed again with amazing visuals.

 

[wallrock]

I think this is a given in any such relationship, and doubly expected with James Cameron. It is also very, very, good news!

Cameron is a genius inventor and crazy perfectionist. This is his legacy and he will make sure it is good. In their heart-of-hearts the imagineers are having a blast pushing boundaries while management wants to reign things in and watch costs. However Cameron surely kept control and is pushing and pushing.

That is why I am so stoked for this to open. All those who complain about Disney not going far enough with new rides and expansion should love that Cameron is involved.

Look at that link. This is going to be good. The amazing world of Pandora is what was popular around the world and made so much money. Can't wait for 2. Not because I expect a great deep story, but because we will be wowed again with amazing visuals.

I wouldn't exactly call that potential problem good news.

The last time Cameron was brought in on a project was for Terminator 2 3D over at Universal. He started as a consultant and ended up taking over the whole project. Universal was willing to let him do that. Not sure if Disney will.

I hope things turn out great, but concept art doesn't transfer to real world very often.