Fall Incentives

[DonMacGregor]

@DanCali did you add a mug?

 

[Genie+]

That's a reasonable way to look at it.

But which do you think will have a higher resale value in 10 years? Poly1 or Poly2?

Personally, I think Poly1 will be much more valuable on the resale market since it can trade into 13 other resorts (maybe just 7-8 after 2042) while Poly2 will be much less desirable for a resale buyer. That's just from a functionality perspective, not the resort itself. So I have no desire to be the direct Poly2 owner selling in 7-10 years and incurring a 50%+ capital loss on something with an advertised 50-year life. If I loved the resort, I might be happy to be on the other side of that transaction though...

I wonder all the time about this

I don’t like the risk of resale restrictions. It’s possible 10 yrs from now RIV is sold out and it’s become a late bloomer in soaring popularity. Maybe inflation adjusted resale prices start going up at some point.

That possibility still doesn’t make me comfortable enough to buy. If I was 20yrs younger it would matter less since we’d only be buying with intention of using it for at least 30yrs, and the new resort restrictions would likely steer us toward direct too.

It’s a big part of why VGF seemed a fleeting opportunity with summer incentives. Felt much less risky should we ever need to exit. We bet on VGF staying more stable. RIV seems like timing will matter more with lows swinging wider.

If Poly 2 is restricted with 50yr contract, I think after 3 years resale value will settle under PVB’s but not by much. Poly2 will have an almost 10yr longer contract but without the benefit of tradability. The first several years might see what RIV did - there just wasn’t much resale yet so the little demand was still enough to keep it propped up. It takes a few years for resale to build on a resort where everyone only purchased recently. In the 5-10yr mark of Poly2 resale I expect price to be slightly under PVB. In yrs 1-5 PVB resale could trend down $10-$20pp.

If in 3 or 4 yrs PVB 100pt resale hits $120 we will buy. We really enjoy this resort. The plan is to try Poly2 with our VGF direct points. If we really love it could switch us to 100pts direct, but the price gap will also be crucial in our decision.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I wonder all the time about this

I don’t like the risk of resale restrictions. It’s possible 10 yrs from now RIV is sold out and it’s become a late bloomer in soaring popularity. Maybe inflation adjusted resale prices start going up at some point.

That possibility still doesn’t make me comfortable enough to buy. If I was 20yrs younger it would matter less since we’d only be buying with intention of using it for at least 30yrs, and the new resort restrictions would likely steer us toward direct too.

It’s a big part of why VGF seemed a fleeting opportunity with summer incentives. Felt much less risky should we ever need to exit. We bet on VGF staying more stable. RIV seems like timing will matter more with lows swinging wider.

If Poly 2 is restricted with 50yr contract, I think after 3 years resale value will settle under PVB’s but not by much. Poly2 will have an almost 10yr longer contract but without the benefit of tradability. The first several years might see what RIV did - there just wasn’t much resale yet so the little demand was still enough to keep it propped up. It takes a few years for resale to build on a resort where everyone only purchased recently. In the 5-10yr mark of Poly2 resale I expect price to be slightly under PVB. In yrs 1-5 PVB resale could trend down $10-$20pp.

If in 3 or 4 yrs PVB 100pt resale hits $120 we will buy. We really enjoy this resort. The plan is to try Poly2 with our VGF direct points. If we really love it could switch us to 100pts direct, but the price gap will be crucial in our decision.

Here are the most recent resale numbers from dvcresalemarket.com. This shows that the resale prices for RIV are holding up just fine, so I wonder where the concern for the future comes from. Is the concern more down the road?

DVC Resale Prices Compared to Direct DVC Prices​

Below is a chart comparing the DVC Resale Market prices to Direct Resale prices:

Resort	Resale (Based on August ’23 Sales)	Direct* (Disney Vacation Development)	Difference Per Point (Direct – Resale)	Percentage Savings with Resale
Animal Kingdom	$120	$210	$90	43%
Aulani	$110	$217	$107	49%
Bay Lake Tower	$141	$275	$134	49%
Beach Club	$144	$275	$131	48%
Boardwalk	$128	$240	$112	47%
Boulder Ridge	$105	$215	$110	51%
Copper Creek	$140	$250	$110	44%
Grand Californian	$298	$310	$12	4%
Grand Floridian	$157	$230	$73	32%
Hilton Head	$85	$165	$80	48%
Old Key West	$88	$205	$117	57%
Old Key West – Ext	$109	$205	$96	47%
Polynesian	$154	$250	$96	38%
Riviera Resort	$131	$217	$86	40%
Saratoga Springs	$109	$205	$96	47%
Vero Beach	$61	$150	$89	59%

*Direct price does not reflect any promotional discounts DVC may be offering. Grand Floridian pricing reflects the upcoming price increase effective September 12th. Click here to view resale restrictions.

 

[tom1944]

Here are the most recent resale numbers from dvcresalemarket.com. This shows that the resale prices for RIV are holding up just fine, so I wonder where the concern for the future comes from. Is the concern more down the road?

DVC Resale Prices Compared to Direct DVC Prices​

Below is a chart comparing the DVC Resale Market prices to Direct Resale prices:

Resort	Resale (Based on August ’23 Sales)	Direct* (Disney Vacation Development)	Difference Per Point (Direct – Resale)	Percentage Savings with Resale
Animal Kingdom	$120	$210	$90	43%
Aulani	$110	$217	$107	49%
Bay Lake Tower	$141	$275	$134	49%
Beach Club	$144	$275	$131	48%
Boardwalk	$128	$240	$112	47%
Boulder Ridge	$105	$215	$110	51%
Copper Creek	$140	$250	$110	44%
Grand Californian	$298	$310	$12	4%
Grand Floridian	$157	$230	$73	32%
Hilton Head	$85	$165	$80	48%
Old Key West	$88	$205	$117	57%
Old Key West – Ext	$109	$205	$96	47%
Polynesian	$154	$250	$96	38%
Riviera Resort	$131	$217	$86	40%
Saratoga Springs	$109	$205	$96	47%
Vero Beach	$61	$150	$89	59%

*Direct price does not reflect any promotional discounts DVC may be offering. Grand Floridian pricing reflects the upcoming price increase effective September 12th. Click here to view resale restrictions.

For the few deeds I have been tracking these resale prices seem to be slightly higher than I have been seeing.

 

[Genie+]

Is the concern more down the road?

Yes. The most likely window we’d exit is 15-20 years from now.

That chart is not the full picture. It’s using DVC’s jacked up pricing of sold out resorts. It would look much different comparing inflation adjusted direct active resort pricing (*eta - with incentives) over the last 10-15 years.

 

[BeachClub2014]

For the few deeds I have been tracking these resale prices seem to be slightly higher than I have been seeing.

It could very well be. Maybe we'll see an adjustment when the updated numbers come out in the next few days. I think that overall, RIV seems to be holding its own on the resale market.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Yes. The most likely window we’d exit is 15-20 years from now.

That chart is not the full picture. It’s using DVC’s jacked up pricing of sold out resorts. It would look much different comparing inflation adjusted direct active resort pricing over the last 10-15 years.

You lost me on this one. I always thought the metric was comparing resale prices against direct pricing to determine relative value. Maybe I'm thinking about it wrong?

 

[DanCali]

I think the jury is still out on what impact restrictions have on the resale market and price point for the resort. So far, the resale restrictions haven't seemed to have tanked the value of Riviera. As more restricted resorts come on line, those restrictions will become the norm, not the exception. Unless DVC backs away from restrictions, which they sure don't seem inclined to do.

That's probably because most sales that happened have been from the most motivated sellers and most motivated buyers. Looking at those ROFR thread entries or at current asking prices for contracts that have been listed for 2+ months and are not selling doesn't mean much at this point in time.

While some insist they will "never sell", I'm assuming the average holding time for DVC contracts is 7-10 years. So in 5-7 years, when you have decent supply, you'll know the impact. Until then, you're right - the jury is still out.

 

[tom1944]

It could very well be. Maybe we'll see an adjustment when the updated numbers come out in the next few days. I think that overall, RIV seems to be holding its own on the resale market.

There was only one resale Riviera contract today to consider. That sold for $117 per point for 325 points. All the others were direct or transfers/foreclosures

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

We bought RIV direct BECAUSE of the resale restrictions. I wanted points to use anywhere in the future. Everything else we bought resale.
I’m taking those points to the grave!

Any points bought direct give you that - access to all resort even those upcoming at least per what they state now. Buying RIV means that if there came a day you needed to sell the product you'd be selling would have usage restricted to all locations except RIV. VGF etc if the member needed to sell would still have access to 14 other resorts, not just the home resort.

 

[BeachClub2014]

That's probably because most sales that happened have been from the most motivated sellers and most motivated buyers. Looking at those ROFR thread entries or at current asking prices for contracts that have been listed for 2+ months and are not selling doesn't mean much at this point in time.

While some insist they will "never sell", I'm assuming the average holding time for DVC contracts is 7-10 years. So in 5-7 years, when you have decent supply and the , you'll know the impact. Until then, you're right - the jury is still out.

I totally agree that the landscape will be different 5-7 years down the road. I think the relative unreliability of the Skyliner may be a bigger drag on valuation then resale restrictions.

 

[Genie+]

You lost me on this one. I always thought the metric was comparing resale prices against direct pricing to determine relative value. Maybe I'm thinking about it wrong?

Direct prices today are something new buyers would take in to account.

But that’s not the same as saying RIV’s 40% drop from direct to resale is not an anomoly.

People who bought active resorts like CCV, VGF1, BLT are not seeing that 40% drop, even more so after considering incentives.

 

[BeachClub2014]

There was only one resale Riviera contract today to consider. That sold for $117 per point for 325 points. All the others were direct or transfers/foreclosures

Okay. Not sure what you mean?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Why do you say that? So far, I have seen no evidence to support that restrictions have impacted resale value. And with more restricted resorts coming online, theoretically the impact should lessen, not worsen.

Perusal of resale listings show RIV below CCV - the resort next closest in length of contract. And it is not difficult to find it lower than BCV. More in the realm of BLT perhaps which is 10 years its senior. To say that restrictions aren't hurting resale I feel is RIV fan talk vs actual numbers.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

There was only one resale Riviera contract today to consider. That sold for $117 per point for 325 points. All the others were direct or transfers/foreclosures

??? Could you explain this post more?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Here are the most recent resale numbers from dvcresalemarket.com. This shows that the resale prices for RIV are holding up just fine, so I wonder where the concern for the future comes from. Is the concern more down the road?

DVC Resale Prices Compared to Direct DVC Prices​

Below is a chart comparing the DVC Resale Market prices to Direct Resale prices:

Resort	Resale (Based on August ’23 Sales)	Direct* (Disney Vacation Development)	Difference Per Point (Direct – Resale)	Percentage Savings with Resale
Animal Kingdom	$120	$210	$90	43%
Aulani	$110	$217	$107	49%
Bay Lake Tower	$141	$275	$134	49%
Beach Club	$144	$275	$131	48%
Boardwalk	$128	$240	$112	47%
Boulder Ridge	$105	$215	$110	51%
Copper Creek	$140	$250	$110	44%
Grand Californian	$298	$310	$12	4%
Grand Floridian	$157	$230	$73	32%
Hilton Head	$85	$165	$80	48%
Old Key West	$88	$205	$117	57%
Old Key West – Ext	$109	$205	$96	47%
Polynesian	$154	$250	$96	38%
Riviera Resort	$131	$217	$86	40%
Saratoga Springs	$109	$205	$96	47%
Vero Beach	$61	$150	$89	59%

*Direct price does not reflect any promotional discounts DVC may be offering. Grand Floridian pricing reflects the upcoming price increase effective September 12th. Click here to view resale restrictions.

By what metric?
It can't be length of contract as it's showing less than a resort with more than 10 years on it - BLT. Less than the next closest length - CCV. Actually it's similar to a resort that expires in 18 years vs it's own 45 that is supposed to be in the same vicinity (Epcot resort) BWV.

 

[BeachClub2014]

To say that restrictions aren't hurting resale I feel is RIV fan talk vs actual numbers.

Restrictions may be impacting, and I think there isn't sufficient data to point to this one variable. Many variables go into a purchase decision, such as location, transportation, theming, remaining years, price, availability, amenities, etc.

 

[BeachClub2014]

By what metric?
It can't be length of contract as it's showing less than a resort with more than 10 years on it - BLT. Less than the next closest length - CCV. Actually it's similar to a resort that expires in 18 years vs it's own 45 that is supposed to be in the same vicinity (Epcot resort) BWV.

The percentage savings with resale. Last column.

 

[pianomanzano]

I think the jury is still out on what impact restrictions have on the resale market and price point for the resort. So far, the resale restrictions haven't seemed to have tanked the value of Riviera. As more restricted resorts come on line, those restrictions will become the norm, not the exception. Unless DVC backs away from restrictions, which they sure don't seem inclined to do.

Yea, I think it's still too early to tell about the resale restrictions and what effect they have. There's a lot of factors at play regarding Riviera resale. For one, there's not too many on the market and there are many on the market that are still being paid off so sellers aren't willing to entertain lower offers because they don't want to have to bring money at closing.

 

[tom1944]

??? Could you explain this post more?

I went on the Orange County site to track sales of resorts I am interested in.

I usually do a day at a time.

Yesterday/today there were 28 recorded deeds for Riviera. Only one was an arm's length resale purchase. The majority were direct sales and there were a few that were either transfers between original owners or foreclosures. Those you can identify because the deed tax is 70 cents.

The one resale contract sold for $117 a point.