Fall Direct Incentives

I’m wondering about a scenario like this:

I have $30k today we’re considering to buy 150pts DVC because high likelihood/desire of WDW with my family yearly. Or I can invest it and pull out some of our trip money yearly. What happens if say I choose SP500 and after the previous great run goes down 12% over the next 5 years. In that time each year I’m removing half my yearly ‘vacation room budget’. There’s so many things going on here, the math is way beyond me. I’m not sure if this feeling is right, but seems like I’d be in a hole at that 5 year mark that would take many years after to catch back up. Obviously will depend how well the investment performs after. Timing the market is the game changer, especially if you’re pulling vacation funds yearly. The years you pull on downswings might hurt.
 
If the market is down 12% on a constant-dollar basis five years from now, how you pay for your WDW vacations is probably not going to be your most pressing concern. But this is more of an abstraction than a plan; it's a way to help decide between two similar alternatives.
 
I’m wondering about a scenario like this:

I have $30k today we’re considering to buy 150pts DVC because high likelihood/desire of WDW with my family yearly. Or I can invest it and pull out some of our trip money yearly. What happens if say I choose SP500 and after the previous great run goes down 12% over the next 5 years. In that time each year I’m removing half my yearly ‘vacation room budget’. There’s so many things going on here, the math is way beyond me. I’m not sure if this feeling is right, but seems like I’d be in a hole at that 5 year mark that would take many years after to catch back up. Obviously will depend how well the investment performs after. Timing the market is the game changer, especially if you’re pulling vacation funds yearly. The years you pull on downswings might hurt.
I cant answer this specifically since Im not into the markets. What I can say is this. Over my life I watched my mom invest and save. We didnt really vacation. There was always a "I cant pull money" for this reason or that reason. To this day she still has all that money she invested just sitting there.

I look at DVC as spent money much like as if I were buying a car. I will enjoy the nice new car, spend money on maintenance, and later on in life maybe the car will still be worth something if I want to sell it. Im spending money to make vacationing easier, potentially cheaper and a commitment to vacationing rather than possibly putting it off. I can say I enjoyed my first DVC stay much much more than I would have on cash, because I wasn't thinking about how much the room cost and how to make the most of the trip because who knows when I will be back.
 
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I’m wondering about a scenario like this:

I have $30k today we’re considering to buy 150pts DVC because high likelihood/desire of WDW with my family yearly. Or I can invest it and pull out some of our trip money yearly. What happens if say I choose SP500 and after the previous great run goes down 12% over the next 5 years. In that time each year I’m removing half my yearly ‘vacation room budget’. There’s so many things going on here, the math is way beyond me. I’m not sure if this feeling is right, but seems like I’d be in a hole at that 5 year mark that would take many years after to catch back up. Obviously will depend how well the investment performs after. Timing the market is the game changer, especially if you’re pulling vacation funds yearly. The years you pull on downswings might hurt.
It’s why IMO it doesn’t make sense to compare a buy and hold strategy for a stock portfolio with a smoothed out multi decade average while it is currently at an all time high to money you would set aside for short to intermediate term spending (college, home down payment, vacations, new car, etc.).

That’s why I tend to look more at the risk free rate of return as a benchmark.
 
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This wait feels like forever! I have a trip coming up to DL end of month, my 11 month window opening for a reservation I really want is end of month, a resale closing end of month and then waiting for Oct 1 for the new incentive info.
 
I have a March & June UY. Guide is telling me because 2024 already started I can't get the 2023 points loaded on anymore. If they said yes to the 2023 I would sign today.
The 2023 UY for March ran from March 1, 2023 through February 29, 2024, and for June it was from June 1, 2023 through May 31, 2024. So your guide is correct, they can’t sell you points in the 2023 UY for March or June because those UYs have ended. The only 2023 UYs still active are October (just 3 more days, through September 30) and December.
 
The 2023 UY for March ran from March 1, 2023 through February 29, 2024, and for June it was from June 1, 2023 through May 31, 2024. So your guide is correct, they can’t sell you points in the 2023 UY for March or June because those UYs have ended. The only 2023 UYs still active are October (just 3 more days, through September 30) and December.
Yes, they explained that but because I don't have an October use year there was an issue creating a new contract for me versus adding points to one of the existing I already have. I don't remember exactly what they said but I did suggest giving me a 3rd UY lol.
 
Yes, they explained that but because I don't have an October use year there was an issue creating a new contract for me versus adding points to one of the existing I already have. I don't remember exactly what they said but I did suggest giving me a 3rd UY lol.
A new UY means a new memberSHIP, which would be subject to minimum buyin rules e.g. 100 points, I think, even if you’re not a new member. Was that the issue? Were you wanting to buy fewer than 100 points?
 
I totally get the math, but I always say if we’re going to compare anything about DVC or timeshares against investing in the market, then the math will tell you that the luxury purchase isn’t the right choice most of the time.
Exactly. Not going on vacation at all or tent camping in a state park always wins financially 🤷‍♂️ These are frivolous luxury purchases, math is only marginally involved
 
Exactly. Not going on vacation at all or tent camping in a state park always wins financially 🤷‍♂️ These are frivolous luxury purchases, math is only marginally involved
I think you get into the head space where you know there is some level of future sunk cost and so you are trying to maximize the value of what you believe that sunk cost will be.

With that said… it has been extremely easy to rent out points….
 
Just got off phone with a guide...$33,750 for 150 points at RIV - $4,050 in incentives - $3,000 Rebate for buying back my first years points. $26,700 plus closing costs. Math works out to what everyone is charting out.

There are some really good resale contracts but I want the option to stay in the forbidden resorts lol. I could also buy RIV resale but I don't like being cornered into that situation. Should I just forget about the forbidden resorts and stick to the great deals on the resale market? I like the direct option in the event 2042 comes around and more than 1/2 of the properties are now all forbidden.
I read this post and now I'm the proud owner of 150 points direct at RIV. I'm a Dec UY so I sold back by 2023 points with MB and will still be getting 2024 points on Dec 1st. I also talked to the HANDS DOWN nicest guide I have ever encountered. Before I even mentioned it she told me she would call me back on Oct 1st to let me know if the incentives got better so we could redo my contract. It makes me want to buy more points from her 🙃
 
I read this post and now I'm the proud owner of 150 points direct at RIV. I'm a Dec UY so I sold back by 2023 points with MB and will still be getting 2024 points on Dec 1st. I also talked to the HANDS DOWN nicest guide I have ever encountered. Before I even mentioned it she told me she would call me back on Oct 1st to let me know if the incentives got better so we could redo my contract. It makes me want to buy more points from her 🙃
Congrats!
 
I read this post and now I'm the proud owner of 150 points direct at RIV. I'm a Dec UY so I sold back by 2023 points with MB and will still be getting 2024 points on Dec 1st. I also talked to the HANDS DOWN nicest guide I have ever encountered. Before I even mentioned it she told me she would call me back on Oct 1st to let me know if the incentives got better so we could redo my contract. It makes me want to buy more points from her 🙃
Share her name! We might want to contact her!😊
 
Yall! The points are already in my DVC account. No wonder people buy direct. I'm blown away. My AKL resale contract took from June 26 (offer was accepted) to Sept 17 (points hit my account). Almost 3 months. It took less than an hour with direct!
Yep it’s a rather amazing experience.
 
I read this post and now I'm the proud owner of 150 points direct at RIV. I'm a Dec UY so I sold back by 2023 points with MB and will still be getting 2024 points on Dec 1st. I also talked to the HANDS DOWN nicest guide I have ever encountered. Before I even mentioned it she told me she would call me back on Oct 1st to let me know if the incentives got better so we could redo my contract. It makes me want to buy more points from her 🙃
I agreed to the setup a contract also but they refused to give me the 23 points lol. But before the contract even came the points are already there and I didn’t even sign anything
 



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