expiration dates?

[1911]

at what point do you think the expiration date of a resort will start to drive down resale prices? I'm just wondering with some only having 24 years left.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I would think it would start to really show in the last ten years. Even then, it will mirror the value of the remaining stays.

 

[zavandor]

I admit I was wrong. I used to think that with 24 years remaining the older resorts would start to show some depreciation because of the "more time have passed than time remaining" psycological treashold.instead they are as popular as ever. I doubt that with 20 or 15 years remaining they could keep the current level of price.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I think if a resort had 10 years left on it today, it would be worth slightly less than current rental rates minus dues for 10 years to people. So, today, rental rates minus dues are around $10 / pt. * 10 years = $100/pt. So my guess would be $80/ pt for BWV (with BCV being higher and BRV & 2042 OKW lower) would still be a great deal for some especially since the other resorts probably will have much higher price tags. Since rental rates will certainly go up in 14 years, I think it's pretty safe to say that a 2042 resort will still hold it's present price plus some in 14 years. I don't think the resale prices will "drop" but I'd expect them to rise more slowly than the others at some point....maybe soon... maybe not. So the gap will be larger, but I don't think anybody buying today will be seeing the value fall unless it falls across the board.

Not everyone wants to be tied into something for 50 years - even knowing they could sell. For people with small kids, 10 years may be what they see as perfect for trips with the kids until they are in HS / College (when needs tend to change). For the 60ish couple it could be their retirement "plan" with the thoughts of "who knows where our health be beyond 10 years?". It also opens the door for a lot of people who cannot currently afford DVC. Regardless of "best value" many people are simply working with a budget and those resorts at those prices will allow them to purchase.

Once 2032 hits, we're going to have resorts that expire in:

10 years
22 years
25 years
28 years
30 years
32 years
34 years
36.......probably up to 50 years with "steps" every 2-3 years.


People will have lots of options to fit their needs - whatever short term or long term means to them. I think it will be interesting to see how the thinking / pricing are at that time. Right now it's 2042 -vs- the rest. Clearly it is the biggest jump but "the rest" will no longer be lumped together as they kind of have been.

 

[1911]

looking at it from a prospective buyers view, I could be incorrect but it would seem to me that the resorts with 24 years left are becoming less of a value.once you factor in the cost of purchase plus the yearly "maintenance fees" on the points the cost to stay per week increases.(assuming prices stay the same or continue to increase)
I admit I haven't taken the time to do the math in depth,purchase vs renting points vs prevailing room rates.perhaps one of the board number crunchers could chime in?
(I was just looking at purchase price amortized over remaining time plus maintenance fees.)

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Most of the 2042 resorts are still pacing ahead of what it would cost to stay there on a cash rez, even at the studio level vs. standard rooms. When you start looking at larger family units requiring a 2BR or GV, the costs are still well ahead, even at the high cost of the points. Sure, buying Saratoga or BLT would be cheaper, but for a family who really want to stay at BWV, there's no sub for BWV points.

 

[CarolMN]

I also think the future value will depend on Disney's hotel rates. That's how we decided - compared DVC with moderate & deluxe discounted hotel rates. Back then, hotel rooms were often discounted 30-40%.

If I would have had the option for a 10 year commitment back in 1999 when we originally purchased, I would have happily selected the shorter term. (Who knew we'd still enjoy visiting after nearly 20 years). My guess is that there are quite a few out there who'd also prefer a shorter term.

 

[Dtw002]

Agree, I liked the shorter term. Will be 65 when mine expires if we keep it that long. There is a strong resale market now, but that might not always be the case (or ever the case with any other timeshares). Over the life of a contract, maintenance fees are the big cost - multiples of what the initial buy in is. I like knowing that at some point those MF stop.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Even as a direct purchaser, my upcoming stay @ BWV in 2 standard studios for 5 nights is "costing" me only about $650 per studio.

If trying to rent, it's hard to get standard, but it would still be $850 ea. and a P/G would be $1275 ea.

The combination of the points charts on the older resorts and the ability to sleep 5 in a studio (or really even just the extra sleep surface) was a big selling point for me. The only "new" resorts that have that are VGF and Poly. Both with much higher purch price and much higher points req.

But, really, it all comes back to buy where you want to stay (IMO) and people still like the older resorts.

I've been thinking about OKW in terms of this thread. I really think they will offer another extension down the line (it will be a whole new set of owners by then) and it wouldn't surprise me if they ROFR the heck out of it at some point and maybe keep the direct price lower than all the rest to resell them. I would love to know what percent of OKW is 2057. The 30 percent figure I've heard a few times is really old. It's gotta be at least 1/2 now, right? Thoughts?????

 

[1911]

I was looking at OKW,the way I figured it was "if" you could get a 150 point contract which would cover a studio for any season for say 80 dollars a point ( i have seen a few listed at that currently) and just rounding yearly fees at 7 dollars a point. the total cost of owner ship is around 37k over the 24 years left which breaks down to around 1550.00 per year or just a tick over 10 dollars a point over the 24 years. now these aren't exact figure just generalizations, do they look close?

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I was looking at OKW,the way I figured it was "if" you could get a 150 point contract which would cover a studio for any season for say 80 dollars a point ( i have seen a few listed at that currently) and just rounding yearly fees at 7 dollars a point. the total cost of owner ship is around 37k over the 24 years left which breaks down to around 1550.00 per year or just a tick over 10 dollars a point over the 24 years. now these aren't exact figure just generalizations, do they look close?

I think most people (if looking for comparison and not including time value of money, etc) will simply divide price per point by years remaining and add MFs. So, $80/pt with 24 years left is $3.33 plus MFs of $6.72 is $10.05/pt. as your year 1 cost. So, yes, that's about right.

Contracts expire in January of the exp year so, we'll be getting points thru 2041. So, it's 25 years is IF you're getting 2017 points. If you're starting with 2018 points, it's 24 years. Makes only pennies difference, but just tossing it out there. And of course closing costs tack on a few cents, too.

 

[Dean]

at what point do you think the expiration date of a resort will start to drive down resale prices? I'm just wondering with some only having 24 years left.

I think it's having some effect now but there are other forces driving prices up as well. Until you get close to the point where it's either no real savings due to the costs and time or it's just not worth fooling with, it'll likely be a slow divergence from resorts that are similar with a longer RTU, OKW compared to SSR is the best metric for this but obviously there are other factors there mostly the dues differential.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Until it's more expensive to buy and pay maintenance fees than book thru Disney hotels then there won't be much or any decline. Barring a huge recession or some other catastrophic event.

 

[Deb & Bill]

You can still use those 2042 points to book the longer lived resorts for 24 more years at seven months out.

 

[Turn the Page]

Speaking for my family, we have automatically discounted all resorts with a 2042 expiration date. We will likely be buying into DVC in the next few years and while there are several different factors going into our choice of home resort the expiration date is a big one.

If we bought into BCV for example, the contract would be expiring right about the time we start thinking about taking grandkids to WDW. Especially considering that BCV resale points are higher than AKV or SSR the shorter contract length makes it much less appealing to us. Of course, we really like SSR so that factors in too. While I would like to try out other resorts in the future we have pretty much come down to a choice between SSR and Riviera pending more information about Riviera including price per point, point charts, and how many people can sleep in a 1 bedroom.

That said the breaking news about DVC at River Country may sway us also. Time will tell. But we will not be purchasing a contract that expires in 2042 unless the price starts dropping like a stone. It's not worth it for us.

 

[Whositsgalore]

You can still use those 2042 points to book the longer lived resorts for 24 more years at seven months out.

Could you explain this further please?

 

[Deb & Bill]

Could you explain this further please?

Sure. For the next 24 years, you can still use the points to book any resort that is available at seven months out.

 

[1911]

the shorter time frame isn't too much of an issue for me as I am old and probably wont live another 24 years.my concern would be an exit strategy and being able to at least sell it without taking a too bad of a hit on it.