Effect of VGF2 Pricing on MK Resort Resale Pricing

[Pluto1976]

When the opening prices for VGF2 are announced I am wondering what, if any, effect it will have on the resale prices of the other MK resorts (i.e. Poly and BLT). I am particularly interested in resale prices of the Poly. For example, if the direct prices for a MK resort are on the low-side would resale Poly prices drop. I do realize these are separate resorts but the commonality is they are all MK resorts. Any thoughts?

Thanks!

 

[nuhusky123]

Prices may be impacted long term but short term I doubt you would see any price changes

price will be driven by supply. If buyers move spend to gfv reducing spend on poly that may result in an increase in supply of poly resale As contracts will sit longer. If there is such an increase then sellers may start to compete on price

if sellers dont put their contracts for sale and supply stays flat then the competition won’t be there to warrant changes on price

short answer it’s too early to tell what gfv will do to supply of resale contracts. I would think gfv will take the lions share of sales going forward for a while and inventory will increase at poly driving down the price. But this likely won’t start to happen for at least six plus months if not longer

 

[Sandisw]

I think if it comes where some of us suspect, I think you will see a slight decrease for all MK resorts because there may be less buyers around.

But I agree it won’t be immediate and it may take 6 months of sales to know.

 

[Ruttangel]

The Poly is a strange one as Disney rarely takes on ROFR and there are listings there months old. It still think you could get PVB in $140's and it won't be taken. BLT has a much better point chart and has more active ROFR so likely to stay around $160-165. I expect VGF to come down from $180 to around $165-170

 

[EYL]

I don't think it'll affect resale prices for Poly or BLT...by much. Most people who purchase resale have done their research and are pretty savvy with DVC. They know to buy where they want to stay. If they want resale Poly or BLT for whatever reason, it's still cheaper, and nothing should persuade them otherwise...

 

[Pluto1976]

Great points! Sounds like the best plan is to wait a bit and see if the prices lower. The point about VGF2 being the property most will be buying in the MK area (price depending) sounds right. That being said, I also agree with the point that most resale buyers have researched and know where they want to buy so it might not effect Poly resale prices that much. Overall, waiting a bit seems to be the strategy.

 

[RoseGold]

Depends on VGF2's price. Coming in near RIV would be really disruptive to resale. Coming in really high would be business as usual.

 

[RichVIII]

I will say there are a LOT OF Poly contracts for sale now compared to other resorts. For a while, the contracts were cheaper than other resorts. The challenge is studios and bungalows for many folks and the points needed for studios. We love Poly but now love 1BRs more. The only thing is people actively comparing points chart. Look, my guide is going to call because we are mildly interested in GF but points for a 1br are killer.

 

[Her Dotness]

Depends on VGF2's price. Coming in near RIV would be really disruptive to resale. Coming in really high would be business as usual.

Precisely, IMO.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I doubt it moves the overall MK resorts much. VGF will come down slightly relative to BLT and Poly long term just because there will be more points available. But we’re talking about going from ~14 million monorail points to ~16 million monorail points.

Now about DVC resale pricing writ large over the next year or two…there’s 1,500 contracts for sale right now, a year ago there were less than 300…