Easy WDW or Touring Plans Recommendation?

[atilley01]

We're planning our first Disney World trip for the last week in April/first week in May 2016. It's almost time to make our ADRs and I planning them based around what park we'll be at on each day. I'm trying to base our touring schedule around the lowest crowds using Easy WDW and Touring Plans and I've noticed that their recommended park of the day can be conflicting on certain days. One day in particular has Easy WDW recommending Magic Kingdom as the best park for the day but touring plans has that day at a level 7 and being the park with the highest crowd that day.

I know it's still early and predicting crowds is not an exact science but I have to make my decisions based on the best information I have at the time. So my question is, which site's recommendation would you follow when they give conflicting information, Easy WDW or Touring plans?

Thanks!

 

[helenb]

The truth is that MK is always a crowded park, however there are certain days/times that are better to visit. I've found that when they conflict, I prefer using the Easy WDW advice for parks, because Josh takes stuff like this into account more often. Also, I believe I ran across some blog posts somewhere where when Josh analyzed his predictions, he was accurate far more often than TouringPlans. If someone has links to back this up (or to back up the reverse) please post!

 

[jharaldson]

I would go with Touring plans in a conflict between the 2 sites. An example of the reason why came from my families trip last May. Our family wanted to do the Star Wars breakfast and the best time available for us was on 05/11/2015 which meant that would be a Hollywood Studios day for us. TouringPlans and EasyWDW were pretty divergent on the recommendations for that day. EasyWDW had the day overall as a 5 and recommended not going to HS and said the extra hours would be overwhelmed with guests exiting from Fantasmic.

http://www.easywdw.com/calendar/may-2015-walt-disney-world-crowd-calendar/#more-14501

TouringPlans had a different view. They had the day overall marked as a 4 but specifically marked HS as a 2. Any day marked that low looks like a recommendation to me:

http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar/date/2015-05-11

Based on this we had a choice to make, we could either get a different reservation for the breakfast on a different day recommended by EasyWDW but know if would be earlier than we would want or we could keep the time we like and go with the TouringPlans date. We opted to go with TouringPlans and had a great day. The concerns with the EMH being overwhelmed with resort guests were overblown as we rode TSMM 2 times and ToT 3 times after the early Fantasmic during the EMH. We also didn't see bad crowds and TouringPlans later reported the day was observed by a 3.

I like the effort Josh puts into his site and I like his writing style but I find the "never go to a park with EMH that day" strategy a little too simplistic and like the data driven approach of TouringPlans more.

Just one guys opinion though and I am sure there are reverse examples.

 

[havoc315]

Both.

Read both, understand the rationale. Digest the information and then make your own decision.

Neither is perfect. TP is a bit more "scientific" but they have been way off lately. As their model doesn't account for some stuff actually happening on the ground.
EasyWdW is more of the common sense of a knowledgeable Disney person.

But for example...... I have a 3 day trip coming up. On all 3 days, EasyWDW says to avoid Magic Kingdom. I am not skipping Magic Kingdom. So I am still looking at the TP calendar, to get a sense of which day may be least awful at MK.

 

[atilley01]

Both.

Neither is perfect. TP is a bit more "scientific" but they have been way off lately. As their model doesn't account for some stuff actually happening on the ground.
EasyWdW is more of the common sense of a knowledgeable Disney person.

But for example...... I have a 3 day trip coming up. On all 3 days, EasyWDW says to avoid Magic Kingdom. I am not skipping Magic Kingdom. So I am still looking at the TP calendar, to get a sense of which day may be least awful at MK.

This was kind of my thinking as well. I know that Magic Kingdom is probably going to be the most crowded park on any given day so I've planned our 2 MK days first and then everything else around it. EasyWdW has MK as the recommended park for only 2 days during our stay so I'm leaning towards those. It just makes me nervous when Touring Plans has one of those days listed as a 7.

 

[havoc315]

This was kind of my thinking as well. I know that Magic Kingdom is probably going to be the most crowded park on any given day so I've planned our 2 MK days first and then everything else around it. EasyWdW has MK as the recommended park for only 2 days during our stay so I'm leaning towards those. It just makes me nervous when Touring Plans has one of those days listed as a 7.

1 -- TP has been way off lately. Though usually, it has been much more crowded than they predict.. BUT..
2 -- A good plan is FAR more important than the crowd rating. I'd rather be in a park with a 7 and a good plan, then going to a 3 with no plan. With a good plan, you can have a great time from 9am-11am... regardless of the crowd level. (except maybe Christmas)

 

[revdon64]

The answer is really about expectations. What do you expect to get done? What do you hope to experience? If you're trying to cram as much as you possibly can into a single visit, you're going to be disappointed. Even doing a ten day trip with parks on eight days, you're not going to see or do it all. With either site I'd say, prioritize, try something new or different, and just drink it all in. There's a lot to experience on a Disney trip and most of us never see it all.

 

[CodeGoddess]

I actually use both. I look on the heatmaps for touring plans crowd calendar first: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/08/10/new-heat-maps-show-disney-world-crowds-hour-hour/

Then I take what the heatmaps and cross reference it with the recommended parks for that day on Easy WDW. If I see a conflict I read through the notes on that day on EasyWDW and use that info to make my decision.

 

[Happy_2_B]

We use touringplans.com. We like easywdw for trip reports and other stuff, but I simply do not agree that avoiding a park with early EMH is a good strategy. Since this premise is flawed IMHO, the rest is not useful to me personally. We avoid those parks with late EMH, as we are rope droppers- but I wouldn't miss rope drop during early EMH for any reason. Having been to WDW 27 times (with number 28 coming up in a few weeks), and having rarely stood in a line more than several minutes during all of the trips we have used UG/touringplans advice, I would never use anything else based upon personal experience. Oops, take that back- we did stand in a line once for about 20 minutes when the boys decided they wanted to drive the cars at Tommorowland Speedway a second time in a row. Touringplans has people in the parks every day, they use hard statistics, and I am a big believer that you get what you pay for. They are currently in the parks investigating what is causing the long wait times, and according to Len a report will be issued shortly- so IMHO they will only get better once they figure this out. He is 100% certain it isn't crowd levels, and they are working at getting to the bottom of it. You are going to get opinions going both ways on this- as this thread comes up pretty frequently- so just do what is best for you.

 

[atilley01]

We use touringplans.com. We like easywdw for trip reports and other stuff, but I simply do not agree that avoiding a park with early EMH is a good strategy. Since this premise is flawed IMHO, the rest is not useful to me personally. We avoid those parks with late EMH, as we are rope droppers- but I wouldn't miss rope drop during early EMH for any reason. Having been to WDW 27 times (with number 28 coming up in a few weeks), and having rarely stood in a line more than several minutes during all of the trips we have used UG/touringplans advice, I would never use anything else based upon personal experience. Oops, take that back- we did stand in a line once for about 20 minutes when the boys decided they wanted to drive the cars at Tommorowland Speedway a second time in a row. Touringplans has people in the parks every day, they use hard statistics, and I am a big believer that you get what you pay for. They are currently in the parks investigating what is causing the long wait times, and according to Len a report will be issued shortly- so IMHO they will only get better once they figure this out. He is 100% certain it isn't crowd levels, and they are working at getting to the bottom of it. You are going to get opinions going both ways on this- as this thread comes up pretty frequently- so just do what is best for you.

Thanks so much for this. I wouldn't be against taking advantage of EMH however we are staying offsite so that's not an option for us. Does your opinion of the original question change at all with that information?

 

[SPOERLX3]

I will throw a little bit of a wrench into this thread since I am an over-analyzer. I have been keeping a daily tally since August 1 since we have a November trip planned. I have been trying to figure out the same thing. I actually extended it to include easy wdw, TP, kenny the pirate, undercover tourist and wdw prep school. I also showed what TP showed as a crowd level and then everyday would go back to the day before and look at the "actual" crowd level and this is what I based my scoring system on. Each crowd calendar got 1 point for each day they got correct based on the "actual" crowd level. Keep in mind that on many days the crowd predictors chose multiple parks as recommend/green/crowd level giving some of the crowd predictors an advantage and on other days there were some parks that were by far the best park for crowd levels and none of the crowd predictors chose them at all.
Here is what I have seen so far:
August
Out of 31 days in August
TP- 13 days correct
easywdw- 11 days correct
Undercover tourist- 11 days correct
Kenny the Pirate- 24 days correct
wdw prep- 17 days correct

September
Out 30 days ini September---keep in mind that September had a couple of weeks with a 1 or 2 crowd level and several days that every day was a 1 or 2 in every park so every crowd predictor got chose correctly
TP- 20 days correct
easywdw- 16 days correct
Undercover tourist- 19 days correct
Kenny the Pirate- 27 days correct
wdw prep- 27 days correct

October- through yesterday
Out of 21 days so far in October
TP- 9 days correct
easywdw- 8 days correct
Undercover tourist- 6 days correct
Kenny the Pirate- 11 days correct
wdw prep- 11 days correct

With all this tabulation, I have also noticed that, especially with wdw prep & KtP- the parks they chose as the best park, even though they got a point for choosing the best, the other 1 or 2 parks that they chose was the very worst park based on the actuals.

Personally, I use TP and easywdw both with Kenny the pirate as a tie breaker.
The strangest thing is that during our 8 day trip, all 5 of these predictor websites have chosen the pretty much the same exact parks each day, which really scares me. With that being the case, we are mixing things up a little bit because if everyone that is using the crowd calendars go to the recommended parks, those parks may end up being the most crazy.

Ok, disboard friends.....you can all tell me that I am crazy and have way too much time on my hands

 

[CodeGoddess]

I actually extended it to include easy wdw, TP, kenny the pirate, undercover tourist and wdw prep school. I also showed what TP showed as a crowd level and then everyday would go back to the day before and look at the "actual" crowd level and this is what I based my scoring system on. Each crowd calendar got 1 point for each day they got correct based on the "actual" crowd level. Keep in mind that on many days the crowd predictors chose multiple parks as recommend/green/crowd level giving some of the crowd predictors an advantage and on other days there were some parks that were by far the best park for crowd levels and none of the crowd predictors chose them at all.

I just wanted to say, I like your style!

 

[savannie]

I'd say read them both, but be willing to tweak your plans as necessary. We always read multiple sources to see which park is least crowded, but none of them are always right. Honestly, they can be very, very wrong sometimes. I plan out my entire trip before we go using an Excel spreadsheet, but I am ready to throw the whole thing out the window if things change while we're down there. I've never once had a trip go exactly as planned; there are just too many crazy factors that can throw a wrench in things. So here's what we do:

If we're not going to the park for rope drop, we check the actual wait times on the MDE app before we leave the hotel room/house. That usually gives us a good idea of which park is most crowded that day. For example, if Space Mountain has a 45 minute wait 30 minutes after the park opens, it's probably going to be a crowded day at MK. If you're staying at a resort, you can also judge crowds by the bus stops. Don't just look at the line length, though–it could be that a bus is just taking a long time to show up. But if you see the queue fill up in 10 or 15 minutes, you may want to pick a different park.

If you go for rope drop, then you obviously have less options unless you have Park Hoppers because you won't be able to see ride wait times yet. But you'll generally get a ton done by noon if you arrive for rope drop, so crowds are less of a concern anyway.

If it's supposed to be a busy week, you might want to consider getting Park Hoppers so you can change your plans at the last minute without worrying about your ADRs. Alternatively, you could just plan your trip really well, and then stick to the plan no matter what. Crowds do make a difference at Disney, but they won't make or break your trip if you have a good plan in place.

 

[401Disney]

I personally swear by Josh's crowd calanders. That doesn't mean I avoid all EMH tho. At the end of the day it's your choice to pick which park you go to and when you go. The question becomes is it worth it for you to risk high crowds?

 

[momof2n2]

Yeah… Josh and touring plans are pretty much exactly opposite the entire week we are going to be there. What am I supposed to do with that? I'm looking forward to Josh's forthcoming commentary on the month of May, so maybe I can make a better decision.

 

[Jennytoon]

One important thing to understand is that different calendars measure different things. You have to read the fine print on the Touring Plans site (although it's not hard to find) to understand what they are measuring, which is wait times.

So something like Food & Wine, where the park is very crowded but a high percentage of people aren't on the rides -- that's not going to score high on TP's scale. On a different calendar, Epcot might be listed as very crowded on that day because what is being estimated is the total # of people in the park / ease of moving around / feeling of crowdedness.

And I definitely agree with @havoc315 that a good plan is more important than crowd level, unless there is no crowd at all in which case nothing is necessary. This is not a secret, I've never seen a site with a crowd calendar that doesn't tell you this.

 

[atilley01]

Yeah… Josh and touring plans are pretty much exactly opposite the entire week we are going to be there. What am I supposed to do with that? I'm looking forward to Josh's forthcoming commentary on the month of May, so maybe I can make a better decision.

Hahaha...I know. And to add to the confusion there's so much up in the air for those parks during that time... What will be closed or new to open in HS before April/May... When exactly is the nighttime show in AK opening... How is the new Frozen ride going to effect the WS...

Makes planning a little more confusing. I picked a heck of a time for our first trip to Disney World.

 

[MrInfinity]

I find the "never go to a park with EMH that day" strategy a little too simplistic and like the data driven approach of TouringPlans more.

I simply do not agree that avoiding a park with early EMH is a good strategy. Since this premise is flawed IMHO, the rest is not useful to me personally.

Easywdw can be summed up as avoid EMH, avoid parks with something interesting going on, and go on shortened days. The rest of the advice is copying and pasting from the previous week. This makes for a 30-page recommendation, but it's just repetition. And if you follow it to the T, you'll never enjoy the EMH hours, not see a parade, and have to leave early.

The theory is that EMH is Disney telling guests where to go... But that is flawed because Disney does not want guests consolidated. I believe Disney uses EMH to move guests to less crowded places. And then although more resort guests will hit up EMH days, almost all offsite guests will avoid EMH days, so going to an EMH park day is in my opinion a great time to be there because around 1/2 of the potential guests will be avoiding this park.

The other things like avoiding parade days are just common sense. If you want to see the parades, that's not realistic. And then it's also good to go on parade days and then ride rides during the parades. Put yourself back in a corner like Storybook and use that time to do the Barnstormer and Dumbo when all those other kids and parents will be watching the parade.

Best thing you can do is read the sites, see what you agree with or don't agree with, and then pick your days based on your own conclusions. If you would use EMH mornings, then go those days. If you would not go early enough to use an EMH morning (or if you're staying offsite), don't go then.

 

[SA mom]

We look at both, but we always create a Touring Plan for each day. I really like the way you can customize your plan to avoid walking or waiting. We've always been commandos and avoided the waiting, but last year we went 8 weeks after I had ACL reconstruction surgery. We minimized walking and were able to create a plan specific to our fastpasses and attraction preferences.

 

[siskaren]

Thanks so much for this. I wouldn't be against taking advantage of EMH however we are staying offsite so that's not an option for us. Does your opinion of the original question change at all with that information?

It doesn't make sense to go to an EMH park if you can't take advantage of EMH.