DVCNews December 2024 Direct Sales

[maui22]

@Spinster Travel posted this link in another thread. Thought it was worthy of its own thread since it reflects sales at all resorts but Aulani.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...irect-sales-steady-for-december-down-for-2024

One small comment, my own data shows one additional deed for PVB worth 160 points. I did a spot check of the county and they have 519 deeds with Polynesian (several bad spellings), plus one additional deed for Poly which the county never entered the resort.

For those unaware, it is a lot of tedious manual data entry work to do. We should all be extremely grateful to @wdrl for the approximately 15 years he has done this.

 

[AstroBlasters]

@Spinster Travel posted this link in another thread. Thought it was worthy of its own thread since it reflects sales at all resorts but Aulani.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...irect-sales-steady-for-december-down-for-2024

One small comment, my own data shows one additional deed for PVB worth 160 points. I did a spot check of the county and they have 519 deeds with Polynesian (several bad spellings), plus one additional deed for Poly which the county never entered the resort.

For those unaware, it is a lot of tedious manual data entry work to do. We should all be extremely grateful to @wdrl for the approximately 15 years he has done this.

Those BWV, BCV, and VB direct contracts….

 

[JackosinDIS]

Those BWV, BCV, and VB direct contracts….

The mind boggles.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The mind boggles.

I mean… a lot of those aren’t 25-50 point add ons…. some of those are 100 point contracts or more in some cases….

 

[Brian Noble]

The heart wants what it wants.

 

[mamaofsix]

Interesting that, eliminating the pandemic years, 2024 was the lowest sales year since 2016. I wonder why?

Is it simply the economy, or are the product options currently offered by DVC not as appealing to prospective buyers anymore?

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't read it as a big deal, especially because the year ended strong on a YoY basis. If they are within 5-10% of the long term average in any given year, that's probably fine.

If a below-average trend continues, then things are different.

 

[DanCali]

Interesting that, eliminating the pandemic years, 2024 was the lowest sales year since 2016. I wonder why?

Is it simply the economy, or are the product options currently offered by DVC not as appealing to prospective buyers anymore?

Probably a combination of:

1) Pricing - take the pre-incentive 2009 pricing of $120 and compare to the upcoming $235 list price - it's almost a 100% increase. The CPI index increased by only 50% over that same period, so some prospective buyers are probably getting priced out.

2) The resale restrictions are no doubt a turnoff to the subset of buyers who (i) know about the resale market, and (ii) care about the resale value of what they buy. Case in point, my first reaction to the Poly pricing was to make an offer on a resale contract... But they must have enough visibility to consider that subset of buyers not material enough to offset the long-term benefits of the restrictions (to DVC) as they can play the long-game and wait for O14 resorts to expire.

 

[Brian Noble]

Restrictions are hardly new this year. That seems an unlikely explanation. Though I suppose you could argue it by: There are fewer "new" resorts that are unrestricted.

 

[Blerghityblergh]

Restrictions are hardly new this year. That seems an unlikely explanation. Though I suppose you could argue it by: There are fewer "new" resorts that are unrestricted.

True, but in implementation science we know it takes a while for awareness to ramp up. Could there have been a lag in real consumer understanding of the impact of those restrictions?

 

[DanCali]

Restrictions are hardly new this year. That seems an unlikely explanation. Though I suppose you could argue it by: There are fewer "new" resorts that are unrestricted.

I'd argue that sales in the past 2-3 years would have been worse (I don't know by how much) without BPK and the Poly Tower since those buyers would not all be buying at Riviera or VDH as an alternative. But, until PIT launched, most of 2024 was direct sales with restricted resorts only so that could be a sign of things to come after PIT sells out.

Restrictions aren't new but since their launch pretty much coincided with the pandemic and the subsequent recovery, it makes it much harder to isolate their effect. PVB and VGF resale are currently 30%-40% higher than RIV so the effect is real and could become even more substantial as more original RIV buyers try to sell in the future.

 

[DVCsloth]

Could be a bit of oversaturation with all of the offerings. A lot of people already own and to get new members they need to be able to justify the cost of entry and ongoing dues. A lot of people are OK with going once in a while and just paying for a hotel room. Resale restrictions make a lot of people concerned about taking such a big hit if they want to exit imo.

 

[Brian Noble]

A lot of people already own and to get new members they need to be able to justify the cost of entry and ongoing dues

Remember that that cost is: "10% down and a low monthly payment."

It's basically buying a car. A reasonably nice car, but a car.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'd argue that sales in the past 2-3 years would have been worse (I don't know by how much) without BPK and the Poly Tower since those buyers would not all be buying at Riviera or VDH as an alternative. But, until PIT launched, most of 2024 was direct sales with restricted resorts only so that could be a sign of things to come after PIT sells out.

Restrictions aren't new but since their launch pretty much coincided with the pandemic and the subsequent recovery, it makes it much harder to isolate their effect. PVB and VGF resale are currently 30%-40% higher than RIV so the effect is real and could become even more substantial as more original RIV buyers try to sell in the future.

I don't doubt that restrictions affect Riveria's resale value, but the effect is often overrated or oversimplified. Riveria's, as well as PVB's and VGF's, resale value is also dependent on variables such as location, transportation, theming, nostalgia, etc. I'm willing to bet that Riveria's resale value would be higher if it were an MK resort sitting on the monorail.

 

[mamaofsix]

Probably a combination of:

1) Pricing - take the pre-incentive 2009 pricing of $120 and compare to the upcoming $235 list price - it's almost a 100% increase. The CPI index increased by only 50% over that same period, so some prospective buyers are probably getting priced out.

2) The resale restrictions are no doubt a turnoff to the subset of buyers who (i) know about the resale market, and (ii) care about the resale value of what they buy. Case in point, my first reaction to the Poly pricing was to make an offer on a resale contract... But they must have enough visibility to consider that subset of buyers not material enough to offset the long-term benefits of the restrictions (to DVC) as they can play the long-game and wait for O14 resorts to expire.

I think you might be onto something with the delayed affects of resale restrictions.

Another thing that comes to mind is the resorts on offer themselves. VDH and the Cabins are doing very poorly. Riviera is taking longer than expected to sell out. Even the Polynesian tower didn't likely sell as strong as expected to start. Could it be that there is a lack of excitement over the designs, price, point charts of the resorts currently for sale?

I am intrigued by the idea of Lakeshore Lodge, but if the design ends up being a Poly Tower 2.0 with an equally high point chart, I wouldn't be interested. It seems like there was more excitement over the character, designs and immersive nature of previous resorts like CCV, AKV, VGF, etc.

 

[kilik64]

I do like how RIV is perpetually around 24 months from being sold out every monthly report lol It was 24 months away from sellout a year ago.

 

[DVCsloth]

I personally think the Riviera restrictions were a mistake. We own there because we love the resort and transportation options. Disney is planning for the long-term and but I do think restrictions have hurt Riviera as well as covid.

 

[Brian Noble]

I am not sure what reports you are reading, but the January 24 report said:

If Riviera were to maintain that sales pace it would take it 35 months before it is completely sold out.

35 is almost exactly 11 more than 24, and that was 11 months ago. In the words of the Church Lady, "How convenient!"

 

[BeachClub2014]

Using the data in the article cited above, overall direct sales in 2024 were on par with the average annual sales between 2011 and 2023. Is that an acceptable metric for DVD? I dunno, but it doesn't seem all that horrible to me.

I often read comments on the Dis about Riveria sales being slow or the resort taking too long to sell out. My question is: What is the right amount of time for any one resort to sell out? Does it matter if one resort takes longer than another to sell out?

 

[DanCali]

Even the Polynesian tower didn't likely sell as strong as expected to start. Could it be that there is a lack of excitement over the designs, price, point charts of the resorts currently for sale?

It's probably price... It's not like the BPK design is that great (the Deluxe studios always get booked first) but when priced at a great value there was a feeding frenzy.

With Poly, I think the initial pricing was on the greedy side. I suspect that adding a Magical Beginnings rebate would have made quite a difference in demand (even if the cost to the buyer is stripping off the first year points) since it gets the direct price much closer to resale prices.