Ah, perhaps we might again see the promotion of "free park admission when staying in a room booked on (qualified)
DVC Points." If so, that perk might, for many, justify the escalating Retail prices? It sure would make existing owners glad to be grandfathered!
I think it is unlikely that any perks will clearly justify the spread in pricing in pure economic terms. At the end of the day, DVD has to pay for most of the perks offered to Members, and that has to come from the proceeds of sales. There has to be something left over after that happens! In every timeshare system I can think of, the restrictions on "non-qualified" purchases are worth less than the cost to remove them. In some cases, they are worth significantly less.
There are a few exceptions---for example, the restaurant discounts are pretty clearly designed to drive traffic to less popular restaurants at less busy times, and DVD probably does not contribute to those. But, I bet they do contribute to e.g. the AP discounts.
The current resale restrictions were, in some ways, a stroke of pure genius. DVCMC/CRO was having a very hard time to move all of the inventory necessary to pay for
DCL cruises, ABD trips, and Disney Collection hotel nights, and were resorting to fire-sale prices even in shoulder seasons. Left on its own, this would unreasonably increase the point levels required for these internal exchange uses. Restricting those uses simultaneously creates a sense of "loss" for resale owners, while also reducing pressure on DVCMC/CRO to monetize rental inventory, helping to keep point levels to something that is at least arguably reasonable. Most resale owners should be thanking DVD for these restrictions, as they are almost always a money-losing proposition vs. just renting out your points and using them for the cruise, tour, or hotel you desire.
If I were a betting man, I'd bet that the AP discount might be the next thing to go. I would not double down on it being grandfathered, either, but instead can imagine a way that resale owners can "fully qualify" their points with some fee. But, those are both pure guesses. I don't have any particular inside information, just trying to read the tea leaves.
What's more, I don't think DVD is necessarily in a hurry to add restrictions. I'm basing this on the general sense here at DISboards, where a lot of pretty informed people are still buying from the developer in light of the current restrictions. This in spite of the fact that in real economic terms, the restrictions are meaningless. The average timeshare customer, generally less informed, is probably buying it hook, line, and sinker.
Their value would plummet pretty much as soon as you signed on the dotted line.
It is important to remember that this is true today. It is only likely to become worse over time, not better, as the system grows. More Members means more Members looking to sell, on average. Unless the demand for resale contracts increases along with that increase in supply, prices are going to go down. And, because timeshare is a product that is sold, not bought, there is no reason to think that resale buyer pool is going to grow as fast as would be necessary to provide price support.
There will be short term variations in this trend. For example, the recent recession cleared out a lot of the "dead wood" on the Membership rolls, and supply of resale contracts seems to have shrunk somewhat now that that inventory has changed hands. But, over the long term, the trend is more or less inescapable.
Bill
