DVC Podcast - Not Great Advice

[Captain Dan]

you definitely can disagree with me and don't need Pete's permission

and maybe for standard rooms at Poly that is the case - but thinking more in general about staying at the larger size rooms especially in Deluxe accommodations

But I also am the wrong person to ask as I think all of this is way over priced and 99% of the time we stay off property so the "value" of any of this is not apparent to me

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I don't want to argue with you, but when I look at the cost off site in the historic hotels near Disney Springs, they aren't cheaper than staying on property. I just went through this with a friend for a July vacation. They are going to stay at the old Travel Lodge and it's more expensive than all of the standard rooms at value and even moderate resorts. (266 nightly) Maybe you stay further afield than that and the savings get better. My friends are staying there because they are a family of five and that prices them out of most of the Disney resort Hotels. Things I find valuable at Poly include, great food options, child care, the monorail, the best splash pad. Allow me to add that they have the best coffee. These are things that are valuable for me and may not matter to you. Also, Dole Whips, Hawaiian music, torches, the funnest bar, the best drinks, and the best view of the MK fireworks because it's straight ahead from the beach.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

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I don't want to argue with you, but when I look at the cost off site in the historic hotels near Disney Springs, they aren't cheaper than staying on property. I just went through this with a friend for a July vacation. They are going to stay at the old Travel Lodge and it's more expensive than all of the standard rooms at value and even moderate resorts. (266 nightly) Maybe you stay further afield than that and the savings get better. My friends are staying there because they are a family of five and that prices them out of most of the Disney resort Hotels. Things I find valuable at Poly include, great food options, child care, the monorail, the best splash pad. Allow me to add that they have the best coffee. These are things that are valuable for me and may not matter to you. Also, Dole Whips, Hawaiian music, torches, the funnest bar, the best drinks, and the best view of the MK fireworks because it's straight ahead from the beach.

Yeah, we are a family of 5 of and usually travel with extended family so need lodging for 7-9 people. Usually in a 2 or 3 bedroom condo with full kitten and multiple bathrooms for ~$1,200 a week for all of us.

We like the Poly - always stop by at least once a trip for the food, drive is, Dole while, and often watch fireworks from the beach

Just can't afford to stay there

 

[GAN]

Your validating my point to the quote I referenced. I definitely don't see an appreciation on the points/contracts. What I have seen is a partitioning of seasons for the value of those points. I also have seen restrictions on resales on the latest DVC resorts (and possibly all future ones). So I think the OP is correct in stating the value of those points, restricted to the 14 DVC properties, has a good chance of going down especially as contract terms are nearing the end.

Right. I bought a car and put 100,000 miles on it in 4-years ...It’s not worth the $30,000 I paid for it. Same goes for DVC. No one should expect an appreciation. I paid $13,000(plus fees) and in another 25-years it’s pretty much worthless. As far as the restrictions go, they do impact the buyers of resale and that would be a big consideration if I was buying resale without a direct contract to go with it. But for the people who bought in prior to those changes -I get the feeling that most of us aren’t worrying about it ....we’ve enjoyed some nice stays with quite a few more to go. I’d like to know where Disney is taking all this but with them it’s anyone’s guess. My daughter has a friend in Management at DVC and from what I get from them, there is no end in sight. I see the struggle for people considering resale, and if you own a direct contract and want(or worse, need) to sell there could be a potential problem down the road. Without question, the restrictions are meant to reduce resales. I had my doubts buying in but it’s turned out to be a great ride for my family ...so good I’m looking to add on in the near future.

 

[Princess Jes]

Hi Pete -

Am I allowed to disagree with Max?

This is the internet, where everyone agrees with one another, are courteous, respectful and mindful of their audience.
And most of all, Max is all knowing, so we tend to always agree with him.

I'm obviously being facetious, except for the Max part, he's pretty great.

Where is @KingLlama when I need him?

 

[hertamaniac]

Right. I bought a car and put 100,000 miles on it in 4-years ...It’s not worth the $30,000 I paid for it. Same goes for DVC. No one should expect an appreciation. I paid $13,000(plus fees) and in another 25-years it’s pretty much worthless. As far as the restrictions go, they do impact the buyers of resale and that would be a big consideration if I was buying resale without a direct contract to go with it. But for the people who bought in prior to those changes -I get the feeling that most of us aren’t worrying about it ....we’ve enjoyed some nice stays with quite a few more to go. I’d like to know where Disney is taking all this but with them it’s anyone’s guess. My daughter has a friend in Management at DVC and from what I get from them, there is no end in sight. I see the struggle for people considering resale, and if you own a direct contract and want(or worse, need) to sell there could be a potential problem down the road. Without question, the restrictions are meant to reduce resales. I had my doubts buying in but it’s turned out to be a great ride for my family ...so good I’m looking to add on in the near future.

You nailed it! It really makes me think of the master plan for the resale market and it's impact. The sense I get is that if you commit to DVC, the best usage of your contract is to use it (insert obvious clause here). Selling/renting out your points seems to be counter-intuitive to maximizing your contract value based on our observations.

I guess we're at the stage of seeing this wave of diluting resale value and want to see if we can purchase closer to a bottom (wherever that may be).

 

[hertamaniac]

Disney cannot increase the total number of points needed at a particular resort in a year.

But, my question was is there a cap on a yearly (not inter-year) increase in points required for a given resort?

 

[OKW Lover]

But, my question was is there a cap on a yearly (not inter-year) increase in points required for a given resort?

Sorry, I should have been clearer. Total points at a resort cannot increase from year to year either. Once set, the total points at that resort do not change over the life of the resort.

 

[hertamaniac]

Sorry, I should have been clearer. Total points at a resort cannot increase from year to year either. Once set, the total points at that resort do not change over the life of the resort.

Got it, thanks! I also read that the resorts can/do shift the point allocations of the properties based on demand so long as the overall resort points are net zero. That tells me that the room/villa you may want in year 1, can increase in points in year 2 (etc.). To me, that could lessen the value of the contract if you are fixated on a certain villa/resort/season.

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...res/news-70636/4359-studio-costs-rise-in-2020

 

[OKW Lover]

That tells me that the room/villa you may want in year 1, can increase in points in year 2 (etc.). To me, that could lessen the value of the contract if you are fixated on a certain villa/resort/season.

Correct. However, reality is that people's vacation needs change over time as couples buy, have children, children grow, family expands, children get married, couple winds up as empty nesters.

 

[GAN]

Got it, thanks! I also read that the resorts can/do shift the point allocations of the properties based on demand so long as the overall resort points are net zero. That tells me that the room/villa you may want in year 1, can increase in points in year 2 (etc.). To me, that could lessen the value of the contract if you are fixated on a certain villa/resort/season.

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...res/news-70636/4359-studio-costs-rise-in-2020

Just to add ...this link is the type of point change DVC is referring to(and the most significant I remember) as Jeff mentioned. To me it isn't a big deal -they saw the need to make 2-BR's a little more attractive and make some Studios during particular times of the year a little less attractive. But I don't feel it is make or break by any means ...if I want a Studio for a week and it costs me 7 extra points than it did a couple years ago, I can still work with that.

I guess we're at the stage of seeing this wave of diluting resale value and want to see if we can purchase closer to a bottom (wherever that may be).

The way I see Disney controlling Point Values, the bottom may not occur until maybe 10-years prior to the end of a contract and at that point would you want to buy in -tough decision? OKWLover might be able to elaborate ...weren't OKW owners offered an extension? That's probably what you will see happen with these aging contracts. One thing I don't doubt -the DEMAND is there and will be for a long while by the looks of things(Star Wars, Marvel, etc). From a purely economic standpoint, this is a VERY good situation for present owners to be in!

 

[OKW Lover]

OKWLover might be able to elaborate ...weren't OKW owners offered an extension? T

Yes they were. Original OKW contracts expire in 2042. Extended contracts in 2057 IIRC. I understand that response to this extension offer wasn't very big so there's probably a lot of 2042 contracts out there.

 

[NickDubs34]

Sort of off topic but didn’t want to start a new thread for something that isn’t that big of a deal. But listening to the pod this week, the discussion of Jiko and the Lion King tasting menu omitted what I think is the primary reason they’re doing it and it has nothing to do with trying to coax more people into going: The movie is coming out in July. Given that the tasting option starts right before the movie drops, I’m sure it’s just a tie in for that and Jiko was a natural place to do it. I’m not disagreeing with the idea that Jiko isn’t quite what it used to be (though it’s still very very good, IMO) but I thought that was a very obvious connection that wasn’t mentioned in the midst of the assumptions about how adding the Lion King option to the experience was a sign that Jiko is struggling.

 

[GAN]

Yes they were. Original OKW contracts expire in 2042. Extended contracts in 2057 IIRC. I understand that response to this extension offer wasn't very big so there's probably a lot of 2042 contracts out there.

Given that it was a lead balloon, who knows what the plan will be. It sounds like Disney tried to get more than they were worth(no surprise there) -had it been something reasonable more people may have jumped at it. Add in the fact that many people will be in their 80's or 90's when the contracts would expire and that further complicates decisions.

Sort of off topic but didn’t want to start a new thread for something that isn’t that big of a deal. But listening to the pod this week, the discussion of Jiko and the Lion King tasting menu omitted what I think is the primary reason they’re doing it and it has nothing to do with trying to coax more people into going: The movie is coming out in July. Given that the tasting option starts right before the movie drops, I’m sure it’s just a tie in for that and Jiko was a natural place to do it. I’m not disagreeing with the idea that Jiko isn’t quite what it used to be (though it’s still very very good, IMO) but I thought that was a very obvious connection that wasn’t mentioned in the midst of the assumptions about how adding the Lion King option to the experience was a sign that Jiko is struggling.

Like you, I feel Jiko is still very good. I feel their struggle is that many people either aren’t comfortable with a good dining experience or just don’t want to be bothered with one(maybe while at Disney, maybe anytime). So I do believe there is a method behind the madness and are trying to lure people in ....and I suppose there isn’t anything wrong with that. If they were struggling because the food/service was just bad we’d hear more complaints. I’ve havent seen the episode yet so I may have NO idea what I’m talking about! But that’s my feeling on Jiko.....

 

[SorcererHeidi]

Like I feel I keep having to repeat lately (so my comments are received/framed correctly) I haven't been in almost 7 years, but every experience I've ever had at Jiko was marvelous. Was one of my 'go to's" for a special treat for someone to celebrate an occasion, or even just to impress.

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Like I feel I keep having to repeat lately (so my comments are received/framed correctly) I haven't been in almost 7 years, but every experience I've ever had at Jiko was marvelous. Was one of my 'go to's" for a special treat for someone to celebrate an occasion, or even just to impress.

Honestly I’ll have a Jiko date with you if interested on me <3

 

[SorcererHeidi]

Honestly I’ll have a Jiko date with you if interested on me <3

 

[wfjny]

In principal, I completely agree with the original poster, you should not be looking at DVC for an investment.

I too will say that being an owner at BLT for the past 10 years, I am very happy with the value of the points that I have.

As an original owner as opposed to a resale owner, I do think that the latest restrictions do impact the resale value of points.

However, points there are several things that I think about. For example, I am still wondering when will Disney be building a BLT2 on the other side of the contemporary? And when they do that, will they offer the current owners of BLT an opportunity to extend the expiration to the expiration of the new tower.

It should also be pointed out that I would say that DVC is mostly worthwhile when you can pay for it up front. Borrowing money to buy DVC can definitely impact your cost analysis.

The biggest thing to me when it comes to DVC is that it is at the top of the daisy chain of cost savings opportunities. For annual passes, you can save about $150 per ticket. In my case, that is equal to an annual savings of about $600. There have been times that they have offered special promotions for annual passes for as much as $300 off, which can mean a savings of $1,200 for a family of four. That savings could in theory pay for your annual dues.

But it does not stop there. Since you now have an annual pass, your enjoy other perks. Since parking is now $25 a day, having an AP can save you hundreds on a vacation. Having an AP gets you a 10% discount at most sit-down restaurants at WDW (15 or 20% at a few restaurants at Disney Springs). It gets you 20% most stores. There are also a bunch of special ticket events, tours, etc. where your discount would also apply. Also, if you own an AP, then you can get Tables in Wonderland. While the recent price increases as well as the increased discounts for AP holders has cut the usefulness for TiW, back when it was $75 for 13+ month card, I could easily pay for the card with the savings at just one meal.

Clearly, you need to love Disney to purchase DVC. And let’s face it, the reason that people buy DVC is mostly because they are planning their vacations around Disney. I would not look at it as an investment, but yes, I could sell my BLT points for the same amount I paid for them 10 years ago. For us WDW is a place that we visit multiple times a year, and for most trips we stay offsite, and often on various hotel points. The DVC made the AP possible for us. The AP has made the multiple trips work for us. The multiple trips has made it a great vacation spot for us, with the knowledge of knowing if we do not do attraction X this trip because it has a three hour long line, we will make it a priority on the next trip, in just a couple of months.

What we have also learned is that what works for one family may not work for another! DVC is certainly not for everyone, but some people can make it work very well...

 

[jbish]

If you buy Copper Creek today at $188 / point direct from Disney, it's currently reselling for between $145 - $165, which is between 10-20% LOSS of value.

I just want to respond to this particular point in the OP - First of all, this is a unique time in the resale market as the points are still available from DVC directly. But to the greater point about the difference between the price you buy direct versus resale doesn't take into consideration that you're (likely) USING up some of the points during your ownership period. So, sure, I think I bought BLT at $160/point and now they're selling at $145/point. But I didn't "lose" anything but rather used up 7 years worth of points on vacations. So I think of it more like an amortizing investment. In the last year of my ownership, I'll only have 160 points left (my annual allotment + plus whatever I banked the prior year) and then I have nothing left. Except the 25+ years (or however much it ends up being) of vacations that I took. I hope that makes sense and I didn't feel like the original point considered that.

 

[sharadoc]

I don't own DVC, wish we had bought when we visited the BWV center when it first opened, but I always thought of DVC as a discounted, pre-paid, villa vacation, not like a real estate investment where you expect to sell at a profit.

 

[Captain Dan]

In principal, I completely agree with the original poster, you should not be looking at DVC for an investment.
I too will say that being an owner at BLT for the past 10 years, I am very happy with the value of the points that I have.

As an original owner as opposed to a resale owner, I do think that the latest restrictions do impact the resale value of points.

However, points there are several things that I think about. For example, I am still wondering when will Disney be building a BLT2 on the other side of the contemporary? And when they do that, will they offer the current owners of BLT an opportunity to extend the expiration to the expiration of the new tower.

It should also be pointed out that I would say that DVC is mostly worthwhile when you can pay for it up front. Borrowing money to buy DVC can definitely impact your cost analysis.

The biggest thing to me when it comes to DVC is that it is at the top of the daisy chain of cost savings opportunities. For annual passes, you can save about $150 per ticket. In my case, that is equal to an annual savings of about $600. There have been times that they have offered special promotions for annual passes for as much as $300 off, which can mean a savings of $1,200 for a family of four. That savings could in theory pay for your annual dues.

But it does not stop there. Since you now have an annual pass, your enjoy other perks. Since parking is now $25 a day, having an AP can save you hundreds on a vacation. Having an AP gets you a 10% discount at most sit-down restaurants at WDW (15 or 20% at a few restaurants at Disney Springs). It gets you 20% most stores. There are also a bunch of special ticket events, tours, etc. where your discount would also apply. Also, if you own an AP, then you can get Tables in Wonderland. While the recent price increases as well as the increased discounts for AP holders has cut the usefulness for TiW, back when it was $75 for 13+ month card, I could easily pay for the card with the savings at just one meal.

Clearly, you need to love Disney to purchase DVC. And let’s face it, the reason that people buy DVC is mostly because they are planning their vacations around Disney. I would not look at it as an investment, but yes, I could sell my BLT points for the same amount I paid for them 10 years ago. For us WDW is a place that we visit multiple times a year, and for most trips we stay offsite, and often on various hotel points. The DVC made the AP possible for us. The AP has made the multiple trips work for us. The multiple trips has made it a great vacation spot for us, with the knowledge of knowing if we do not do attraction X this trip because it has a three hour long line, we will make it a priority on the next trip, in just a couple of months.

What we have also learned is that what works for one family may not work for another! DVC is certainly not for everyone, but some people can make it work very well...

--+++-------+++++
Ok, that's a lot of typing.
When they build BLT2 you will not be able to use your BLT points. That's one of the new rules. Points from the Old 14 cannot be used at Riviera, Reflections or whatever comes next.

If I was selling DVC today, I would not tell clients they should expect to get thier money back at resale. The above rule reduces the value of the resale shares

Capt Dan out