DVC Listings up over 700%!!

[sndral]

Glancing at the Interesting chart linked in the first post, there appears to be a bottleneck in May 2021, listings the month prior in April were higher & they’ve been increasing in the last year, but as w/ all things real estate, general trends are interesting, but what really matters is what’s the story where you want to buy/live.
Doing an eyeball comparison of the listings at the various DVC resorts & assuming I’m understanding the chart, from the beginning of the chart in April 2021 to the end in April 2022 the increase in inventory is really pronounced in SSR listings w/ about 3Xs as many as a year ago, Poly has about 2Xs, BLT also has more listings.
In the category of about the same I’d put RVA, AKV, BCV, BRV, & OKW.
In the category of fewer listings I’d put CCV, VGF, & BWV.
Is there something about the 3 resorts seeing substantially more listings that’s driving the increase?
Re: the economy - if interest rates continue to trend up consumption should slow down since so much of consumption is fueled by credit, but I’m old enough to have weathered a few economic storms, thus I gave up trying to forecast the economic weather.

 

[kilik64]

Glancing at the Interesting chart linked in the first post, there appears to be a bottleneck in May 2021, listings the month prior in April were higher & they’ve been increasing in the last year, but as w/ all things real estate, general trends are interesting, but what really matters is what’s the story where you want to buy/live.
Doing an eyeball comparison of the listings at the various DVC resorts & assuming I’m understanding the chart, from the beginning of the chart in April 2021 to the end in April 2022 the increase in inventory is really pronounced in SSR listings w/ about 3Xs as many as a year ago, Poly has about 2Xs, BLT also has more listings.
In the category of about the same I’d put RVA, AKV, BCV, BRV, & OKW.
In the category of fewer listings I’d put CCV, VGF, & BWV.
Is there something about the 3 resorts seeing substantially more listings that’s driving the increase?
Re: the economy - if interest rates continue to trend up consumption should slow down since so much of consumption is fueled by credit, but I’m old enough to have weathered a few economic storms, thus I gave up trying to forecast the economic weather.

You might be on to something there. We all know that SSR historically is what people who are value oriented buy through resale for SAP. Prior posts guessing that maybe some of it is from people selling used moldy old points for new BLT/VGF/whatever else has had good deals last few months, could be a driving factor for some of the listings.

Long way of saying, yea sounds like people might be flipping their cheap (I mean if you bought what even 3-4 years ago you were getting in at like 90 or less maybe pp? selling now for 130ish, thats a decent return) points for new direct points at pretty solid deals that were being ran by DVD.

 

[RKS03]

Yeah I have loved the Boardwalk but after seeing the spectacular member deal for VGF2 (paid less than 180 per point) decided to sell the BWV contract and buy direct. That said, I wouldn’t have done that trade at current direct pricing although seems like a decent deal still.

 

[gharter]

We just listed and sold one of our contracts. we had been going 2 weeks per year and finally decided we just wanted to go 1 week per year. Was surprised how fast it sold and very close to what we asked which was right in the range for AKL contracts. Planning to keep our BWV contract. Couldn't be happier as the sale price covered our purchase cost, all of our dues plus more. So, we ultimately took all of our AKL trips for free for the room.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

All the real fellas are waiting on a $70 incentive for OKW Direct.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I know there is lots of selling old contracts to buy new going on, but likely not enough to tip the scales. I have been watching the DVC market (daily, yes an obsession) for about 20 years or whenever resales appeared online.

There was a very real resale drought for a long spell until this flood gate opened, whatever the cause(s). For a long time, there was hardly an AKV anywhere to be had and each one that appeared was a bidding war (late 2020-early 2021?).

I think there are lots of international DVC members giving up (just a guess) as there are way more fully loaded contracts now than I ever remember. Early 1990's members may be unloading contracts, but neither of those situation or flipping for new, accounts for the amount of resales out there...it is puzzling!

 

[sndral]

I know there is lots of selling old contracts to buy new going on, but likely not enough to tip the scales. I have been watching the DVC market (daily, yes an obsession) for about 20 years or whenever resales appeared online.

There was a very real resale drought for a long spell until this flood gate opened, whatever the cause(s). For a long time, there was hardly an AKV anywhere to be had and each one that appeared was a bidding war (late 2020-early 2021?).

I think there are lots of international DVC members giving up (just a guess) as there are way more fully loaded contracts now than I ever remember. Early 1990's members may be unloading contracts, but neither of those situation or flipping for new, accounts for the amount of resales out there...it is puzzling!

How does now compare to the ‘08 real estate crash? Not total numbers (there are more members & points now) but relative increase in listings? I remember DVC wasn’t exercising ROFR & prices tanked just like housing prices.

 

[littlestar]

We listed and sold a Beach Club contract last month.

Our reasons for selling were husband wants to retire in about 18 months, Genie and park reservations are too much hassle, large price increases, and we found out during the pandemic that relaxed mountain and ocean vacations are more fun than Disney parks for our children and grand kids. We have been members since 2002.

Things change with time. We have only kept 125 DVC points.

 

[davidl81]

My guess is the primary driver for DVC listing being up right now is the super high resale price you can get. Many people are happy to just list at a high price and if it sells it sells, if it doesn’t sell then no big deal.
The direct “sales” may have something to do with it also. We sold our SSR when we bought AUL direct and I’m sure many are doing the same with VGF. I’m not saying that’s all of it, but I’d bet it’s a decent amount.

 

[MICKIMINI]

How does now compare to the ‘08 real estate crash? Not total numbers (there are more members & points now) but relative increase in listings? I remember DVC wasn’t exercising ROFR & prices tanked just like housing prices.

I just remember the dirt cheap prices and there must have been tons of contracts to drive them so low. We paid $62 in 1996 for OKW (direct). I think we paid around $70 or so for Wilderness in 2000 (or 01?) (direct). If I remember, we paid around $80 for SSR in 2010 on the secondary market. Our son was in college so we were up to our eyeballs in education and didn't buy more.

There weren't as many brokers or access to listings like there is now. The broker we used is still around and I'm sure they fight for every listing as they have so much competition. Readily available listings we can all see does make buying and selling happen more quickly on the secondary market and trends are visible to all of us.

 

[rubybutt]

Does anyone know how many of these contracts are broker owned?

 

[MICKIMINI]

Does anyone know how many of these contracts are broker owned?

Good question! When I see a totally stripped contract that is my first thought...

 

[kilik64]

Does anyone know how many of these contracts are broker owned?

No but board sponsor seems to own a ton if they have multiples of what I found when we bought from a listing of theirs. Owner was llc and fairly sure it was a foreclosure they bought. Same llc at the time (may 2021) had bought 50+ contracts just since March of that year.

Could be the employee who had the llc was buying them on their own but highly doubt it, 50+ contracts would mean 1m or so in funding to buy them all.

 

[lovethesun12]

How are Disney direct sales going?

People turn to resale for a better deal.

Deals are really "meh" right now. Why purchase $180+pp monorail contract when you can buy direct for $207 or less with more incentives and park discounts.

 

[Sandisw]

How are Disney direct sales going?

People turn to resale for a better deal.

Deals are really "meh" right now. Why purchase $180+pp monorail contract when you can by direct for $207 or less with more incentives and park discounts.

March numbers were strong as many current owners added on at VGF.

With the announcement of the Poly tower and not knowing if it will be restricted from resale points, I think the difference for direct right now is worth it if you want an MK resort.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

All Disney needs to do is replace Bob Cheapek and you will see an immediate bounce in resales.

 

[Nabas]

Could mean any number of things:
- high resale prices are tempting more people to see what they can get
- people not happy with the way things going at Disney are want out
- high inflation causing rising costs for everything causing people to have to sell

If I were selling today it would be the first 2 that would be my reason

I would add that with people feeling “done with COVID” last year, there was a mad rush to buy DVC resales and inventory got unusually low last spring.

Now, that spike has passed and the economy is looking shaky, the demand for DVC resale is down while those looking to sell are up.

 

[wnielsen1]

All the real fellas are waiting on a $70 incentive for OKW Direct.

I'm in. Send me a PM the instant this goes live.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

We're in the sold resale to buy direct camp. SSR resale traded for direct BLT. Paid more, of course, but are happier. I do think there is a lot of this happening. So many owners bought VGF last month, AUL and BWV previously... many are likely offsetting the purchase with listing an older, possibly restricted, contract.

 

[sethschroeder]

JP Morgan reported earlier this week consumer deposits are up 18% yoy.

Fairly cherry picked number with no real relation to anything other than some people at least are doing much better. Chase grew 30% YOY between June 2019 to 2020 upon a quick search when inflation was 2.3-1.4% instead of the 7% we had last year.

Demand is at all time highs for real estate, travel, cars and consumer goods. Unemployment is low.

If you looked real estate has big investment coming from companies looking to either rent the spaces or flip the spaces. Additionally real estate along with all over aspects listed have outside factors causing shortages.

Travel = 1-2 years worth of shutdown and reduced travel
Cars = shortages in manufacturing and chip shortages, car sales were down roughly 8% globally in 2021 compared to 2019
Consumer Goods = delayed shipping in supply chain causes those items in stock to be purchased more quickly before they go out of stock again
Unemployment = driven partly by retirement rate and a labor force participation rate lowest since June 1977 (when looking pre pandemic)

Covid really threw a wrench into things. Additionally now you are seeing massive lockdowns in Shanghai which is causing issues with the world's largest port delaying shipping through that specific port. This likely will cause future consumer good shortages.

I am not saying the economy sucks or any crash is going to for sure happen. I will say that interest rates are climbing quickly and inflation is sky high compared to recent years (other than 2020) which will cause changes to what people are doing. As an example someone buying a house with a $500k loan in November can only afford roughly a $375k home as of earlier this month simply due to mortgage rates.