DVC coming to Caribbean Beach Resort?

[michelleiada]

I'm seeing a lot of talk about this happening. Permits have been filed for an extensive expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort but no official word/announcement as to whether it is DVC. What are everyone's thoughts on this. I'm not really sure how I feel about it. I do wish that Disney would slow down on resort expansion and build another park instead. More lodging means more people in the already over crowded parks. Just my thoughts.

 

[chalee94]

http://www.disboards.com/threads/disney-files-expansion-plans-for-caribbean-beach.3572669/

 

[BillPA]

Disney doesn't care how crowded the parks get, only how much money they can remove from you pockets.

 

[suebeelin]

If they create a CBR DVC, then the lodging should be lower points than even the std/value rooms at bwv/akl.

Assuming that's the case, 5-7 Points a night might be tempting to some, but it will definitely put a major squeeze on the 7mo mark, imo-- esp for the near park resorts.

Should be interesting to watch it all unfold.

 

[Sammie]

I have no idea to the point situation but yes I think they are going to build there. Just because they build there not sure points will be lower. It could still be a Deluxe villa at that location especially if they build the waterway to Epcot.

 

[supersnoop]

Disney doesn't care how crowded the parks get, only how much money they can remove from you pockets.

Then why did they add 25% more capacity at Magic Kingdom in recent years, and why are they adding capacity at Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios?

 

[supersnoop]

If they create a CBR DVC, then the lodging should be lower points than even the std/value rooms at bwv/akl.

Assuming that's the case, 5-7 Points a night might be tempting to some, but it will definitely put a major squeeze on the 7mo mark, imo-- esp for the near park resorts.

I don't see how it would put a squeeze on near-park resorts. If they make a "moderate" DVC, then they're going to be selling a lot of 50 point contracts. They might even have to lower the minimum buy-in to 25 for new members if rooms are as low as 5 points per night. Those folks who are buying enough points for a week at their new "moderate" home resort won't have enough points for two nights at a near-park resort.

 

[GotLabradors]

If the expansion ends up being considered a "moderate" DVC resort, do you think Disney would allow moderate points to be used at a deluxe resort? Does it even matter in the world of timeshares? I do agree with the point made about continually expanding the resorts without building a new park.

 

[tjkraz]

More lodging means more people in the already over crowded parks. Just my thoughts.

Your cause and effect is backward. People don't say "hey, they just built a new hotel...let's go to Walt Disney World!" The decision to visit WDW is made first. Only then do people begin to question whether to stay on-site or off-site, whether to stay at Poly, Art of Animation, Pop Century, etc.

Hotels don't drive park crowds. They simply represent a lodging alternative which brings even more revenue into Disney's coffers.

Besides, Disney is investing hundreds-of-millions into an Animal Kingdom expansion, Star Wars and Toy Story areas at DHS, Disney Springs. The Fantasyland expansion was completed just over 2 years ago and things are percolating at Epcot.

 

[Dean]

If they create a CBR DVC, then the lodging should be lower points than even the std/value rooms at bwv/akl.

Assuming that's the case, 5-7 Points a night might be tempting to some, but it will definitely put a major squeeze on the 7mo mark, imo-- esp for the near park resorts.

Should be interesting to watch it all unfold.

As I said in the other thread, there's no reason to make it different, just another DVC resort along the lines of SSR or OKW. I suspect it will impact the 7 month window but it depends on the demand they create between points and the resort itself.

If the expansion ends up being considered a "moderate" DVC resort, do you think Disney would allow moderate points to be used at a deluxe resort? Does it even matter in the world of timeshares? I do agree with the point made about continually expanding the resorts without building a new park.

I can't see them doing this at this time but if they did, then I would expect a crossover though possibly only those with qualified points.

 

[Pintail]

They understand their business model, and are in growth mode.
I think it is always nice to have brand new rooms, as an option, to stay in.

 

[CraigInPA]

I wonder if they will upgrade CBR to deluxe status by building that "back door" into Epcot? Maybe the future of Disney is value resorts, convention resorts (Swan and Dolphin), and deluxe resorts, with no moderates?

 

[tjkraz]

I wonder if they will upgrade CBR to deluxe status by building that "back door" into Epcot? Maybe the future of Disney is value resorts, convention resorts (Swan and Dolphin), and deluxe resorts, with no moderates?

The permits that leaked yesterday were via the South Florida Water Management District so they focus on changes to waterways around CBR. There are no indications that canals will be extended to provide boat service to Epcot or DHS. That appears to be completely off the table.

A walking path or some other local transport could show up in physical construction plans, but that's purely speculative. Nothing made public yesterday gave any indication one way or the other.

 

[Brian Noble]

If they create a CBR DVC, then the lodging should be lower points than even the std/value rooms at bwv/akl.

My bet: IF this is DVC (and I'm not convinced yet based on the plans so far), the rooms will be pointed very similarly to OKW or SSR-std, and there will be some additional resort amenities added to bring that corner of the property up to the OKW/SSR standard. (And, let's be honest, there isn't much that has to be done to make that happen.)

 

[michelleiada]

Your cause and effect is backward. People don't say "hey, they just built a new hotel...let's go to Walt Disney World!" The decision to visit WDW is made first. Only then do people begin to question whether to stay on-site or off-site, whether to stay at Poly, Art of Animation, Pop Century, etc.

Hotels don't drive park crowds. They simply represent a lodging alternative which brings even more revenue into Disney's coffers.

Besides, Disney is investing hundreds-of-millions into an Animal Kingdom expansion, Star Wars and Toy Story areas at DHS, Disney Springs. The Fantasyland expansion was completed just over 2 years ago and things are percolating at Epcot.

I respectfully disagree. When Disney sells DVC, they are creating a repeat visitor that will most likely visit more frequently than non DVC. And they discount the annual pass. More people are going more frequently. I know that I visit a lot more than I would have if I didn't own DVC. The parks are more crowded and I think DVC is part of the reason.

 

[wdrl]

I respectfully disagree. When Disney sells DVC, they are creating a repeat visitor that will most likely visit more frequently than non DVC. And they discount the annual pass. More people are going more frequently. I know that I visit a lot more than I would have if I didn't own DVC. The parks are more crowded and I think DVC is part of the reason.

DVC's impact on Park attendance is probably dwarfed by many other factors.

Just consider that the number of local residents has increased significantly in the last few years. The Orlando metro population is one of the fastest growing areas in the country. The Orlando Economic Development Commission reported

"Orlando is the fastest-growing of the country’s 30 largest regions, according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The region added more than 60,000 net new residents in the twelve months ending July 1, 2015 (166 per day), growing total population by 2.6 percent to 2,387,138. . . . All four counties within the Orlando region – Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole – recorded above-average growth in 2015. Osceola and Lake both placed on the list of the nation’s 50 fastest-growing counties, at 18th and 40th respectively. . . . Since 2010, when the region resumed significant population growth, Orlando has added a net gain of 252,733 residents."​

A month doesn't seem to go by when the Orlando media doesn't report about a new resort or hotel is coming to the area, or that some timeshare or hotel is expanding its capacity. According to Orange County Property Appraiser, Orange County has 70 timeshares and 279 hotels. Not all of these timeshares and hotels cater predominantly to WDW guests, but they still have many guests who add a visit to a Disney Park as part of their stay. Even if Disney isn't building a new resort, others are.

I've never seen any data measuring the number of days DVC members visit Parks versus the average Disney guest, but it would not surprise me if DVC members actually spend less days and hours in the Parks. The infrequent visitor might be more likely to do commando style visits, while DVC members have a much more relaxed and casual approached to their visits. Even though DVC villas might have higher occupancy rates than hotel rooms, it doesn't necessarily translate into more actually going into the Parks.

 

[Brian Noble]

I respectfully disagree. When Disney sells DVC, they are creating a repeat visitor that will most likely visit more frequently than non DVC. And they discount the annual pass. More people are going more frequently. I know that I visit a lot more than I would have if I didn't own DVC. The parks are more crowded and I think DVC is part of the reason.

DVC's main role for TWDC is twofold. One: it provides earlier ROI on the capital investment of building resorts, because their revenue is front-loaded on sales. Two: it reduces their exposure to the risk of slumps in travel demand because the lodging is pre-paid.

9/11 put the Fear of God into TDO, because as travel demand cratered it gave them an idea of what might happen if the economics of air travel changed. Unlike most any other Disney resort, the vast majority of visitors to WDW fly. There's a reason that they've not opened a single cash room since 9/11 other than completing the two halves of Pop Century (now POP and AoA), but both of those were started before 9/11. At the same time, they've taken cash rooms out of circulation to change them to DVC: the top two floors of AKL, the North Wing of CR, and now half of WL. The recent quotes from Iger about the possibility of building new cash rooms would be a big departure from the last 15+ years.

But, the building of those hotels is not what's driving attendance, because no one buys DVC without first visiting the Parks. The Parks are the draw. DVC is just a way to better monetize and reduce the risk of the infrastructure one can build to support that draw. And, as Park capacity increases through New Fantasyland, the Pandoraverse, and Toy Story/Star Wars, the company can justify increasing that infrastructure.

 

[Missyrose]

I respectfully disagree. When Disney sells DVC, they are creating a repeat visitor that will most likely visit more frequently than non DVC. And they discount the annual pass. More people are going more frequently. I know that I visit a lot more than I would have if I didn't own DVC. The parks are more crowded and I think DVC is part of the reason.

But look at how Disney keeps "building" DVC resorts, at least part (if not most) of the plan centers around converting existing cash rooms to DVC villas. It takes empty rooms off Disney's books while getting DVC sales to foot the bill for building new rooms.

 

[LAX]

The permits that leaked yesterday were via the South Florida Water Management District so they focus on changes to waterways around CBR. There are no indications that canals will be extended to provide boat service to Epcot or DHS. That appears to be completely off the table.

A walking path or some other local transport could show up in physical construction plans, but that's purely speculative. Nothing made public yesterday gave any indication one way or the other.

Not sure if it's even feasible, but what about direct land access such as a bridge over Buena Vista Drive? I don't know how long of a walk that would be even if Disney were to entertain the possibility of another entrance closest to CBR to shorten that walk.

LAX

 

[Dean]

Not sure if it's even feasible, but what about direct land access such as a bridge over Buena Vista Drive? I don't know how long of a walk that would be even if Disney were to entertain the possibility of another entrance closest to CBR to shorten that walk.

LAX

I'd guess 1/3 mile roughly with a small bridge over the canal and a large pedestrian bridge over Buena Vista Dr. Then Plus moving and masking the behind the scenes components. I can't image it'd be feasible to do so.

Moreover, I disagree with the underlying premise, that they'd need it to to sell DVC at that location. If they were going to invest that much into such an option, they likely would just raze the CBR and build DVC there. Or they could renovate the existing buildings as a conversion.