DVC August 2024 Sales Numbers

[tx911]

It does seem like heavily discounting Riviera would cannibalize Poly 2, but that might be worthwhile if Disney foresees any softening of demand, and maybe at some point they just need to flush out Aulani and Riviera so they can put their energy toward their newer DVC properties.

The Poly/Riviera situation is interesting to me.

I don't find Poly direct as compelling, because even after the tower sells out, I can always get resale Poly points that are good at the tower and a whole slew of other nice resorts.

With Riviera, once the direct window closes, you will have to pay through the nose to get direct Riviera points, or buy resale RIV points that can only be used there.

So I'm much more inclined at the moment to buy more direct RIV points than I am direct Poly points.

 

[AstroBlasters]

All good points.

I enjoy the ongoing discussions and debates on how quickly one resort sells out compared to another. As you rightly point out, many variables can affect sales of any particular resort. Let's list a few (in no specific order):

• US economy
• World economy
• Interest rates
• Resort location
• Resort theme
• Resort amenities
• Transportation options
• Room configuration/mix
• Cost per point
• Incentives
• Restrictions on resale
• Public opinion
• Points chart

I'm sure there are others. So far, DVC has sold out every resort it has built or added to the program. Some resorts may take longer than others, but they eventually get them over the line. Except Aulani

No need to sell out Aulani when it is a cash cow for them to rent.

Very different from the WDW properties where they sell them to make money AND to drive theme park attendance.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The Poly/Riviera situation is interesting to me.

I don't find Poly direct as compelling, because even after the tower sells out, I can always get resale Poly points that are good at the tower and a whole slew of other nice resorts.

With Riviera, once the direct window closes, you will have to pay through the nose to get direct Riviera points, or buy resale RIV points that can only be used there.

So I'm much more inclined at the moment to buy more direct RIV points than I am direct Poly points.

Excellent point.

 

[Sandisw]

The Poly/Riviera situation is interesting to me.

I don't find Poly direct as compelling, because even after the tower sells out, I can always get resale Poly points that are good at the tower and a whole slew of other nice resorts.

With Riviera, once the direct window closes, you will have to pay through the nose to get direct Riviera points, or buy resale RIV points that can only be used there.

So I'm much more inclined at the moment to buy more direct RIV points than I am direct Poly points.

Great points and this is also one of the reasons that we may see resale RiV stabilize in its resale value down the line.

If direct is $250/pt because it’s sold out, then maybe resale could average around the $130 ish mark.

As you said, PVB tower is now accessible via resale, not only as a home resort but all resale owners have access at 7 months.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Great points and this is also one of the reasons that we may see resale RiV stabilize in its resale value down the line.

If direct is $250/pt because it’s sold out, then maybe resale could average around the $130 ish mark.

As you said, PVB tower is now accessible via resale, not only as a home resort but all resale owners have access at 7 months.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out!

I think this a place where the VDH and RIV comparison on resale restrictions starts to breakdown.

RIV is a HUGE resort with 177 1 bedroom villas and 90 2 bedroom villas.

VDH has 19 1 bedrooms and 20 2 bedrooms.

So, I can see people buying RIV resale to add onto their direct to move up accommodation sizes over time. I don’t think VDH will have that as a support floor in its restricted resale pricing.

IMO, the DVC VALUE really pops when it comes to the larger villas.

 

[supercarrie]

The Poly/Riviera situation is interesting to me.

I don't find Poly direct as compelling, because even after the tower sells out, I can always get resale Poly points that are good at the tower and a whole slew of other nice resorts.

With Riviera, once the direct window closes, you will have to pay through the nose to get direct Riviera points, or buy resale RIV points that can only be used there.

So I'm much more inclined at the moment to buy more direct RIV points than I am direct Poly points.

This is one of the main reasons why we went for Riviera versus waiting for Poly for our most recent contract.

 

[CastAStone]

It does seem like heavily discounting Riviera would cannibalize Poly 2

I think that would be the point.

 

[CastAStone]

Remember, DVD can decide at any time to make a resort "sold out". They could say tomorrow (not that I think they will) that they wont declare the rest of the units and just leave it as is...and sell what points they have declared

Agree…people who weren’t around should be aware that CCV was officially sold out while also in active sales with new quarterly promo offers for over a year…

 

[CastAStone]

IMO, if you want it and the price is within a range you think is worth it, I would not wait too long

Agree…I have said elsewhere that I think DVC will put a very large discount on Riviera again and I do, but that could easily be 2 price increases from now.

I wouldn’t presume there will ever be a lower net price than $193 for 200 points again. Maybe! But very possibly not!

 

[tx911]

 

[juliebee]

As a resale owner that is considering buying a direct contract, one of my big considerations is that I can already book at Poly with my points and I don't feel compelled to own there for the home resort booking window. A plus to buying there is that if I resale later (and I surely would because it expires after I'm 90) is that the points aren't locked into just Poly. Aulani falls roughly into the same situation as Poly for me.

Riviera looks lovely, but the points restriction when I would sell is hard for me to justify dealing with as it would be less valuable at resale. VDH has the same restriction, but due to the lack of available DVC accommodations at Disneyland, I believe the resale restriction won't be as negative there. I also live on the West Coast with 2 hr flights to SNA easily and cheaply available. However that transient tax is a big negative to me. All that to say, I hope future incentives are great for VDH as I'd most likely do a direct contract there.

 

[peder]

I think that would be the point.

What do you mean? That Disney would want one of their products to cannibalize sales of the other?

I think they'd want to drive incremental sales by making folks think "Wow, Riviera and Aulani so cheap, I gotta take advantage of that deal", bringing buyers off the sideline. But you wouldn't want to do that until Poly 2 has hit some sales milestones because you wouldn't want to push some full-price Poly 2 buyers over to Riviera/Aulani?

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Given the choices riv is the best one available. We are looking to add on and riv might be it....or we will wait for poly...

 

[atthebeachclub]

But what will the new point charts be

This for real. Might as well enjoy Beach Club and Boardwalk for now, start saving in a fund, and buy the replacement offering when it comes online. You honestly may (probably will?) come out ahead.

 

[atthebeachclub]

As a resale owner that is considering buying a direct contract, one of my big considerations is that I can already book at Poly with my points and I don't feel compelled to own there for the home resort booking window. A plus to buying there is that if I resale later (and I surely would because it expires after I'm 90) is that the points aren't locked into just Poly. Aulani falls roughly into the same situation as Poly for me.

Riviera looks lovely, but the points restriction when I would sell is hard for me to justify dealing with as it would be less valuable at resale. VDH has the same restriction, but due to the lack of available DVC accommodations at Disneyland, I believe the resale restriction won't be as negative there. I also live on the West Coast with 2 hr flights to SNA easily and cheaply available. However that transient tax is a big negative to me. All that to say, I hope future incentives are great for VDH as I'd most likely do a direct contract there.

I have had the exact same thoughts on RIV and DVH.

 

[CastAStone]

What do you mean? That Disney would want one of their products to cannibalize sales of the other?

I think they'd want to drive incremental sales by making folks think "Wow, Riviera and Aulani so cheap, I gotta take advantage of that deal", bringing buyers off the sideline. But you wouldn't want to do that until Poly 2 has hit some sales milestones because you wouldn't want to push some full-price Poly 2 buyers over to Riviera/Aulani?

DVC has repeatedly demonstrated a preference to push an almost-sold-out resort over the finish line to the detriment of their other properties for sale.

I am not arguing the logic of it. Just saying it’s happened over (VGF 1.1) and over (Poly) and over (BLT).

 

[R2Daddy]

My gut says Riviera is a long play for DVC. No rush to sell out as to keep it in the spotlight with a consistent stream of sales. When it does sell out, ROFR get’s interesting as Disney capitalizes off the lower resale values. Scooping up sub $120pp contracts and flipping them back to inventory. Maybe even see them doing this before it sells out to extend the new sales period.

This will make for a very strange RIV resale market in the future.. RIV resale prices will have to rise some to avoid getting bought back, but resale prices at $140pp+ will be a tough sell when other semi-unrestricted resales can be had for much lower. It’s going to waste a lot of buyer’s time going through ROFR and losing. Although, that might help DVC build the case for how easy and quick it is to buy direct.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

As a DLR local and MK holder, my primary issue with VDH is the location. Not trying to rehash the whole debate that’s taken place elsewhere, but if you have anybody in your party with a disability that limits total time on their feet (or kids just too old for a stroller or elderly members who tire easily) that extra 1mi walk adds up. The new gate at Paradise Pier helps, but then you’re crossing Disneyland Dr. Some DVC members are less cost sensitive and willing to pay more for convenience/luxury, but I don’t think VDH feels either convenient or luxurious and it’s priced at the high end of DVC properties, unless you can squeeze into a duo.

We finally decided to buy VGC resale (already have 2 y-card eligible direct resorts elsewhere) because the whole resort feels more like a resort and less time walking back and forth means I can spend more time in the parks.

I considered VDH on the gamble that the parks expand West soon, but we were already in ROFR when D23 made it clear that the rest of this decade will mostly be about adding new rides to DCA, so now VGC really seems like a home run, even though we paid at least $50 more per point than we would have for VDH.

 

[VGCgroupie]

As a DLR local and MK holder, my primary issue with VDH is the location. Not trying to rehash the whole debate that’s taken place elsewhere, but if you have anybody in your party with a disability that limits total time on their feet (or kids just too old for a stroller or elderly members who tire easily) that extra 1mi walk adds up. The new gate at Paradise Pier helps, but then you’re crossing Disneyland Dr. Some DVC members are less cost sensitive and willing to pay more for convenience/luxury, but I don’t think VDH feels either convenient or luxurious and it’s priced at the high end of DVC properties, unless you can squeeze into a duo.

We finally decided to buy VGC resale (already have 2 y-card eligible direct resorts elsewhere) because the whole resort feels more like a resort and less time walking back and forth means I can spend more time in the parks.

I considered VDH on the gamble that the parks expand West soon, but we were already in ROFR when D23 made it clear that the rest of this decade will mostly be about adding new rides to DCA, so now VGC really seems like a home run, even though we paid at least $50 more per point than we would have for VDH.

Own both VDH and VGC and I whole heartedly agree with you. The extra stretch from even DLH to VDH at the end of the night is . I actually said I would never buy VDH, but I did since I didn’t have any other direct to book VDH when I couldn’t get into VGC. Oh how much would I love if they expanded DVC at VGC

 

[McCrae]

Wouldn’t be surprised if resale prices start to soar again following the cut in interest rates.