Does anyone want to venture a guess when Disney World will be completely back to it's 2019 level again?

[kanerf]

The only way for Disney to recoup it's losses from 2020 and onwards is to gradually open up more of the park. They will closely monitor infection rates and when they drop below a certain level (who knows what it is) they will increase capacity to 50% and then increase say another 10% each time a level is met. It will be slow, so probably not back to 100% until late 2023 or early 2024 unless there is a sudden return of infection rates (new variant perhaps) at which time the capacity levels will be reduced again. At some point Disney will open closed resorts to meet increased capacity. If infection rates are very low then face character meet & greats will return, probably with some strict controls in place (parents have to stay at least six feet away while the child may approach). I can see some sort of band being given out to individuals who can show proof of vaccination which will allow some additional access.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

My opinion , the combination of the vaccines being administered and the fact that the virus has a 99% survival rate they should completely open everything back to 100% capacity and also make masks optional . Anyone who doesn’t feel comfortable going can wait until they are comfortable.

Never ceases to amaze me how, one year into this, people are still so bad at comprehending math that they throw out numbers like "99 percent survival rate" as if that's a good thing.

 

[Timandalicia]

What's less expensive than the castle show and TRON? Having NEITHER of them. As to that light at the end of the tunnel it's a speeding locomotive for the Greed Railway company.

For way too long WDW has been the Disney Company's ATM Bad year at the Studios cut stuff at WDW, Bad year in Shanghai cut stuff at WDW, Need to buff up the numbers for an earnings call raise F&B prices and cut more stuff at WDW. With the MASSIVE so called 'covid cuts' notice that MOST of them were not permanent layoffs at Disneyland out of the 28,000 layoffs 20,000 were at WDW which was still OPEN and only 8000 affected Disneyland which remains to this day closed. Hmmm that does not seem operations related at all rather a much leaner and cheaper to run WDW is planned going forward. I just wish that Disney management loved the parks at least half as much as they love their bonuses. For all of the 'Bad Eisner' issues he loved the parks and it showed.

So there are going to scrap Tron? Listen, when they get rid of the Electrical Water Pageant let’s talk.

 

[jlwhitney]

Yeah, well that’s not going to be Disney’s approach. That won’t be happening for a while yet.

Actually none of us know what Disneys approach will be its all guesses, and at this point in time 2-3 months from now can be a total different scenario.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

Actually none of us know what Disneys approach will be its all guesses, and at this point in time 2-3 months from now can be a total different scenario.

The poster I quoted implied that restrictions should be dropped now. I didn’t say anything about months from now.

ETA: I said it won’t be happening for “a while” which could be months, fall, winter, whenever. My point is, it’s not happening now.

 

[jlwhitney]

Never ceases to amaze me how, one year into this, people are still so bad at comprehending math that they throw out numbers like "99 percent survival rate" as if that's a good thing.

because for many people the risk of covid/complications isn't worth not living their life and enjoying the time they do have. Life involves risk and each person assumes the risk they can deal with. The risk of death or long term complications is still not very high. When disney loosens they will probably loose some people but gain many more. Living 2.5 hours from Disney I know more that are waiting for no masks to go to Disney now then are willing to go with them (some went with them and now are done and waiting) and they would all go now maskless if they could.

 

[jlwhitney]

The poster I quoted implied that restrictions should be dropped now. Disney is not dropping restrictions now. I didn’t say anything about months from now.

I thought they said May. or maybe that was someone else.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

I thought they said May. or maybe that was someone else.

Must have been someone else, I was just responding to this:

My opinion , the combination of the vaccines being administered and the fact that the virus has a 99% survival rate they should completely open everything back to 100% capacity and also make masks optional . Anyone who doesn’t feel comfortable going can wait until they are comfortable.

 

[Missingmypooh]

Never coming back - it used Equity actors so 'Too Expensive' even though it was by no means free.

Unfortunately I think WDW and DL until a new management team is in place or the parks are sold to someone who actually WANTS to be in the Parks and Resorts business it's gonna be like Universal back when they were owned by a hedge fund which was not pretty and in large part is responsible for Universal's poor reputation.

the equity actors situation is such a mess. It’s been a year... I think most of them will move on to new careers if things don’t pick up in the next few months.

amazing talent... gone.

 

[zumfelde]

I hope capacity never goes back to 2019. Disney needs to keep park reservation system to control crowd levels (everyone was complaining about packed parks and long waits) Get rid of annual passes (allows more people to experience park instead of select people going everyday) and more revenue per person per day. They do not have the ride or restaurant capacity to handle they crowds they have been having the last couple of years.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

because for many people the risk of covid/complications isn't worth not living their life and enjoying the time they do have. Life involves risk and each person assumes the risk they can deal with. The risk of death or long term complications is still not very high.

I get the first part, but I think a **lot** of people who are making this risk/reward analysis are doing it without really comprehending what a 1 percent (and it's probably not even that high, but it's still really high) IFR means. They think "99 percent is really high!" except, it's really not, when you're talking about a 1 in 100 chance of dying. The inability of so many people to understand probability is a huge problem when trying to get them to act rationally with respect to simple preventative measures like masking, social distancing, and taking a vaccine. This is grossly oversimplified, but would you be ok with taking a revolver with 100 chambers, with one of those chambers containing a bullet, putting it up to your head, and depressing the trigger?

 

[ford91exploder]

So there are going to scrap Tron? Listen, when they get rid of the Electrical Water Pageant let’s talk.

Scrap TRON, No but they will put it on the shelf for a few years

 

[BorderTenny]

I hope capacity never goes back to 2019. Disney needs to keep park reservation system to control crowd levels (everyone was complaining about packed parks and long waits) Get rid of annual passes (allows more people to experience park instead of select people going everyday) and more revenue per person per day. They do not have the ride or restaurant capacity to handle they crowds they have been having the last couple of years.

Um, no. I want an annual pass so I can go somewhere between once a month and once a week. Even the "everyday" crowd is mostly for the evening after day guests start to leave.

 

[jlwhitney]

I get the first part, but I think a **lot** of people who are making this risk/reward analysis are doing it without really comprehending what a 1 percent (and it's probably not even that high, but it's still really high) IFR means. They think "99 percent is really high!" except, it's really not, when you're talking about a 1 in 100 chance of dying. The inability of so many people to understand probability is a huge problem when trying to get them to act rationally with respect to simple preventative measures like masking, social distancing, and taking a vaccine. This is grossly oversimplified, but would you be ok with taking a revolver with 100 chambers, with one of those chambers containing a bullet, putting it up to your head, and depressing the trigger?

that is assuming you have a 100% chance of catching Covid in the first place which you don’t.

 

[PirateFrank]

that is assuming you have a 100% chance of catching Covid in the first place which you don’t.

Staying away from this topic, only to say that its not 99% but much closer to 99.89-99.97% (depending on age). So attempts to oversimplify 99% as "one in a hundred" while failing to consider this much higher survivability rate multiplied against whatever the actual probability of contracting a serious case of covid while walking around outdoors in a theme park is a true mathematical disconnect.

 

[jlwhitney]

Staying away from this topic, only to say that its not 99% but much closer to 99.89-99.97% (depending on age). So attempts to oversimplify 99% as "one in a hundred" while failing to consider this much higher survivability rate multiplied against whatever the actual probability of contracting a serious case of covid while walking around outdoors in a theme park is a true mathematical disconnect.

well stated!

 

[HunterRose13]

Late Fall / early winter of 2022. We all know if will be a dial and not a switch back to normal operations. There are things that will not be brought back for various reasons that are not directly related to health safety.

I have some interesting ideas for hard ticket events or early entry, but I would prefer not to fan the flames of covid controversy. For the time being if someone wants to visit Disney one should play by their rules and not complain.

 

[ford91exploder]

I still don’t think it’s apples to apples.

Listen, I am not a big Chapek fan at all. I know they took covid as an excuse to cut things already on the chopping block, things like streetmosphere - which makes me very sad. I’m just not nearly as doom and gloom about the future as a whole.

I think more will return than you think eventually and you’ll be pleasantly surprised

im glad you are optimistic about the future, but ive spent most of my career fixing corporate Americas screwups. Unfortunately Disney is just one more screwed up american corporation. More concerned with stock price than the health of the business or customer satisfaction

 

[Lee from WV]

Ah man. Streetmosphere is my fave over everything in the list except MAYBE Fastpass. Maybe.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Staying away from this topic, only to say that its not 99% but much closer to 99.89-99.97%

I’m sorry, I”m going to be done after this too, but i can’t leave something that is just wild covid denialism misinformation like this up here for any poor sap to come by, read, and maybe believe. As low as a .03 percent IFR you say? Lol. Well lets see, as of today 534,000 Americans have died. For your .03 percent IFR rate to be correct, that would mean that One Billion, Seven Hundred Eight Million Americans have been infected with Covid and survived. What’s that I hear? The population of the US is only 328 million and they haven’t all had Covid already? Oh....