Do you really want to go back to WDW so soon?

[yankeesfan123]

I understand most people want to be “first in line” for the antibody tests (I know this is just a saying people use), but realistically, the rollout of the actual testing kits (once developed) will be slow and will likely first be routed to emergency personnel, first responders, and medical professionals. Similar to the rapid testing to determine if the person currently has the virus (the testing may need to be a daily routine for some).

Most of us normal people will have to wait a while after the test is released to get our hands on it.

 

[TexasChick123]

Funny thing, I'm from the Midwest and almost every friend/family unit I have spoken to have said something like, "Well, we think we already had it...." At first, I was believing that as well, thinking we might already have a "herd immunity." However, the more I'm reading of cases/data, I doubt it, because I believe there would have been a few who were hospitalized. (None of my friends/family required hospitalizations with their illnesses.)
This morning I read in the news that there was some testing done in Colorado where they did the rapid tests for antibodies of approx. 800 people; only 8-9 tested positive!!
My gut is that I don't think this has really infiltrated middle America, but I am sure hoping I'm wrong.

Most of the antibody tests are for IgM which shows an active infection. Very very few IgG tests have been performed which would show if you already had it and have recovered. I haven’t seen it reported anywhere where a large number of tests have been performed which look for IgG.

I understand most people want to be “first in line” for the antibody tests (I know this is just a saying people use), but realistically, the rollout of the actual testing kits (once developed) will be slow and will likely first be routed to emergency personnel, first responders, and medical professionals. Similar to the rapid testing to determine if the person currently has the virus (the testing may need to be a daily routine for some).

Most of us normal people will have to wait a while after the test is released to get our hands on it.

That’s ok for me since DH is an ER doc. I agree that widespread IgG testing will take a very long time. We don’t even have mass testing for active infections here. You have to have symptoms AND have been exposed to a known case unless you’re in the hospital in which case you can have a test. It’s shameful how bad the testing is honestly.

 

[yankeesfan123]

Funny thing, I'm from the Midwest and almost every friend/family unit I have spoken to have said something like, "Well, we think we already had it...." At first, I was believing that as well, thinking we might already have a "herd immunity." However, the more I'm reading of cases/data, I doubt it, because I believe there would have been a few who were hospitalized. (None of my friends/family required hospitalizations with their illnesses.)
This morning I read in the news that there was some testing done in Colorado where they did the rapid tests for antibodies of approx. 800 people; only 8-9 tested positive!!
My gut is that I don't think this has really infiltrated middle America, but I am sure hoping I'm wrong.

If people have been actually social distancing as recommended, then the 8-9 number is not surprising, especially if this was just a random 800 people. Antibody testing is more important for people who have had COVID-19, were presumed positive but never had a test, and those in close contact with those types of people.

 

[yankeesfan123]

Most of the antibody tests are for IgM which shows an active infection. Very very few IgG tests have been performed which would show if you already had it and have recovered. I haven’t seen it reported anywhere where a large number of tests have been performed which look for IgG.



That’s ok for me since DH is an ER doc. I agree that widespread IgG testing will take a very long time. We don’t even have mass testing for active infections here. You have to have symptoms AND have been exposed to a known case unless you’re in the hospital in which case you can have a test. It’s shameful how bad the testing is honestly.

Almost impossible to get a test where I live. Even with a prescription, there’s nowhere to get it. There’s one hospital near me that does drive through testing, but you first have to get a prescription through one of their affiliates, and from anecdotes I’ve heard from coworkers, friends, and family, they are not just handing our prescriptions. Employees of that hospital can get the test if they have symptoms, however.

The “total number of confirmed cases” is going to almost double once the antibody test comes out (although I’m no expert). And to bring this back on topic, that’s why it could be dangerous to go back to Disney world too soon.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Most of the antibody tests are for IgM which shows an active infection. Very very few IgG tests have been performed which would show if you already had it and have recovered. I haven’t seen it reported anywhere where a large number of tests have been performed which look for IgG.

Thank you for sharing this!! It is reassuring; that article was misleading then--or maybe I am the guilty party and misread it.

 

[TexasChick123]

Thank you for sharing this!! It is reassuring; that article was misleading then--or maybe I am the guilty party and misread it.

I wish I could say I figured this out. DH told me this. He also said that IgM only spikes for a couple of days which is why they’ve been using other non-rapid tests to date as they are generally better but take longer to get results. If you miss the couple of days when IgM spikes with a rapid antibody test which only uses a very small amount of blood, you will get a false negative.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Almost impossible to get a test where I live. Even with a prescription, there’s nowhere to get it. There’s one hospital near me that does drive through testing, but you first have to get a prescription through one of their affiliates, and from anecdotes I’ve heard from coworkers, friends, and family, they are not just handing our prescriptions. Employees of that hospital can get the test if they have symptoms, however.

The “total number of confirmed cases” is going to almost double once the antibody test comes out (although I’m no expert). And to bring this back on topic, that’s why it could be dangerous to go back to Disney world too soon.

Tests are available here in the Midwest; I live in a state where social distancing started extremely early and at the time was considered aggressive and over-reaching, but now we are seeing the rewards of that with our hospitals not being overwhelmed and such.

Also, wouldn't the opposite be true as well with the testing? If confirmed cases doubled, wouldn't that mean that many had very mild symptoms perhaps?

 

[Brett Wyman]

Most of the antibody tests are for IgM which shows an active infection. Very very few IgG tests have been performed which would show if you already had it and have recovered. I haven’t seen it reported anywhere where a large number of tests have been performed which look for IgG.

You mentioned your husbands is an ER doctor so you probably have better info than a lot of us, but the tests you describe seem like test to detect active infection.

When the media mentions "anti-body" test they seem to be referring to a test those shows you have built anti bodies from a previous infection or from blood from a previously infected donor.

Many sources, including Fauci, say these are coming very soon and will be the way we get the "Cornovirus OK" card.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html

 

[Simba's Mom]

There are some places, like Houston, where they are scratching their heads about why it isn't spreading like wildfire. UT Health thinks it was first here in November after combing through medical records from the fall until now and has been spreading since then which is why we haven't had spikes. It would be nice if this was true.

I'm so glad to hear that-we live 350 miles south of Houston, but I've avoided the news (I let DH screen it). I've been thinking of MD Anderson (which we frequented) and all the vulnerable people there.

 

[Simba's Mom]

There are some places, like Houston, where they are scratching their heads about why it isn't spreading like wildfire. UT Health thinks it was first here in November after combing through medical records from the fall until now and has been spreading since then which is why we haven't had spikes. It would be nice if this was true.

I'm so glad to hear that-we live 350 miles south of Houston, but I've avoided the news (I let DH screen it). I've been thinking of MD Anderson (which we frequented) and all the vulnerable people there.

 

[TexasChick123]

You mentioned your husbands is an ER doctor so you probably have better info than a lot of us, but the tests you describe seem like test to detect active infection.

When the media mentions "anti-body" test they seem to be referring to a test those shows you have built anti bodies from a previous infection or from blood from a previously infected donor.

Many sources, including Fauci, say these are coming very soon and will be the way we get the "Cornovirus OK" card.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html

The issue they are having is getting a rapid test with a finger prick versus vials of blood from an intravenous blood draw to detect IgG. For now, they haven’t been able to efficiently use a finger prick test to find IgG. You can only find it with a blood draw from a hospital or laboratory setting. They’re working on it though. Whenever they mention “rapid finger prick antibody tests” they’re referring to IgM tests which don’t help with past exposure or infection. They’re very helpful if administered at the right time for an active infection but not helpful if you had a prior infection. As of last week, there weren’t any rapid IgG finger prick tests, but there are rapid finger prick IgM tests. They are working on rapid finger prick IgG tests, but just aren't there yet unfortunately. For now, you must go and have a full blood draw to look for IgG which is obviously expensive and cumbersome compared to a finger prick test. The tests looking for IgG are rapid, but they require a blood draw.

 

[FRANKTSJR]

My next trip is 180 days out tomorrow. I'll make some dining reservations tomorrow and hope for the best. At least the planning gives me sometime positive to think about. I hope by October, things are somewhat back to some semblance of the normal we all once knew.

 

[Brett Wyman]

The issue they are having is getting a rapid test with a finger prick versus vials of blood from an intravenous blood draw to detect IgG. For now, they haven’t been able to efficiently use a finger prick test to find IgG. You can only find it with a blood draw from a hospital or laboratory setting. They’re working on it though. Whenever they mention “rapid finger prick antibody tests” they’re referring to IgM tests which don’t help with past exposure or infection. They’re very helpful if administered at the right time for an active infection but not helpful if you had a prior infection. As of last week, there weren’t any rapid IgG finger prick tests, but there are rapid finger prick IgM tests. They are working on rapid finger prick IgG tests, but just aren't there yet unfortunately. For now, you must go and have a full blood draw to look for IgG which is obviously expensive and cumbersome compared to a finger prick test. The tests looking for IgG are rapid, but they require a blood draw.

Ah got it. Thanks for that explanation. I am completely cool with a full blood draw for that test.

 

[TexasChick123]

I live in the 2nd most populated state in the country, and our access to testing is almost nonexistent. California is the most populated state, and theirs is even worse. I think we’re all going to have to pony up and pay private labs to test us because the local and federal government just aren’t testing most places. When the urgent cares and freestanding ERs started offering tests that you had to pay for, the government actually tried to shut them down saying it was unethical to ask people to pay. Unethical how? If I go to an urgent care, then I have to pay to have a flu, strep, UTI, or any other test. It isn’t free because those are private businesses. Also, almost no one qualifies to be tested, so our only option is to sit at home and hope we already had it or hope we don’t get it because unless we’re in the hospital, we aren’t getting tested. The only other avenue is if you have exposure to a known case and start to show symptoms, but even qualifying for a test for that group of people varies depending on where you live. The one site that will test anyone in the 4th largest city in the country has a whopping 250 tests/day. Yeah. This is just embarrassing on a local, state, and national level.

 

[DVC92]

To answer the title of the thread, No! I cancelled my May trip and am now planning to cancel my August and December trips and return next May. If the virus is still around by then, and there is no vaccine, I guess I'll just stay in my house forever. Why take the risk? It's one thing to go to the grocery store and stay apart from others, but that is impossible at Mouse World.

 

[TexasChick123]

I just posted this elsewhere, but I think I should post it here too. No one should look at when WDW or anywhere else reopening as a sign that it’s “safe”. My whole family got the flu on a Disney Cruise which many consider “safe”. You risk contracting many diseases, some deadlier than others, every time you go out in public. The best any of us can do it to make the most informed decision for ourselves and our families based on the information we have. If I was older and/or high risk, I would be hesitant to go into large crowds on a regular day. I am more cautious during the winter months because of the flu. People keep acting like getting the flu at any age is no big deal. Let me tell you, it’s a huge deal and kills healthy people unlike this virus. This virus is scary because it is novel, we don’t have a vaccine, and we don’t know a lot about it yet. Why are some areas having more hospitals admissions and deaths than others? Why isn’t it spreading in other areas as much when they were slow to shut things down despite a large number of infected? We don’t know, and that’s scary. I’ll close this post with one thing for everyone to think on: Why aren’t they telling us the number of critically ill or dead patient who smoked in the past, currently smoke, or vape as an underlying medical condition? I haven’t seen that data anywhere. Have you?

 

[yankeesfan123]

I just posted this elsewhere, but I think I should post it here too. No one should look at when WDW or anywhere else reopening as a sign that it’s “safe”. My whole family got the flu on a Disney Cruise which many consider “safe”. You risk contracting many diseases, some deadlier than others, every time you go out in public. The best any of us can do it to make the most informed decision for ourselves and our families based on the information we have. If I was older and/or high risk, I would be hesitant to go into large crowds on a regular day. I am more cautious during the winter months because of the flu. People keep acting like getting the flu at any age is no big deal. Let me tell you, it’s a huge deal and kills healthy people unlike this virus. This virus is scary because it is novel, we don’t have a vaccine, and we don’t know a lot about it yet. Why are some areas having more hospitals admissions and deaths than others? Why isn’t it spreading in other areas as much when they were slow to shut things down despite a large number of infected? We don’t know, and that’s scary. I’ll close this post with one thing for everyone to think on: Why aren’t they telling us the number of critically ill or dead patient who smoked in the past, currently smoke, or vape as an underlying medical condition? I haven’t seen that data anywhere. Have you?

I agree with most of your statement, but honestly, when I get off a cruise and don’t get sick, I feel like I beat the odds! I’m half-joking, but cruise ships don’t exactly have a wonderful reputation of being “safe” from illnesses.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

FWIW the quickest vaccine ever brought to market was Mumps with a speedy 4 years. This is a SARS virus; in 15 years, they have not made a vaccine for SARS that worked and one with promise ended up amplifying the symptoms. And now that there is the political and capitalist will to get this done quickly, human trials take years for a reason- to measure the effects over time. Who wants to stand first in line for that rushed vaccine? And when its ready, even if perfect, how do you get enough doses out for global herd immunity fast enough? Who administers it? Adults are hard to force into these kinds of things and don't go to the Dr. regularly. Will it be a requirement for employment and social services? Or will children bear all the responsibility like other vaccines because you can force it as a condition to education?

Surveillance and mass recurrent testing sound like the quickest way to a semblance of normal to this layman. Still have an October trip on the books and I can hardly guess if we'll get to take it.

 

[TexasChick123]

I agree with most of your statement, but honestly, when I get off a cruise and don’t get sick, I feel like I beat the odds! I’m half-joking, but cruise ships don’t exactly have a wonderful reputation of being “safe” from illnesses.

I guess I’m always expecting stomach viruses from cruise ships. I will admit I was surprised with the flu. I don’t have the highest opinion of cruises either with regards to spreading germs, but for some reason, I was pretty shocked I got the flu. I blame it on being in the Disney bubble on the cruise ship and thinking that would protect me even though I know it doesn’t.

 

[Kevin42565]

I’m an ICU physician and have taken care of many COVID-19 patients.

In the last three years, we’ve been to Disney World 7 times, Disneyland twice, and spent two weeks on DCL.

I have no interest in returning to Disney this year. 0.5-2% mortality rate 5% ICU admission rate, and 20% hospitalization rate. Those numbers may be high because of asymptomatic cases, but even if the rates were half of that, I’d still be worried.

I’ve looked this disease in the eye and told family members to make their last calls to each other.

Disney’s a luxury I can pass on for now and we’re all “low-risk.” I’ll wait for either excessive testing with contact tracing and disease suppression, herd immunity, or a vaccine.