We have gone to Fantasmic! 3 times, and never had a package. The only time we got there more than 30 minutes early was in 2010 when they were only doing a couple shows/week and demand was far exceeding supply. On our trip last week (w/ similar crowd levels to when you are going), DH and DD arrived about 5 minutes prior to showtime and had no trouble getting great seats.
I can't speak for every night of the year obviously, I would think that the package is more important on busier days. I also heard that they were starting to issue FP's for Fantasmic! but that was right after we left so I never looked into the details.
Edited to add - while we've never done a F! package, we've eaten at MM several times and always enjoyed it. It's usually one of our quickest TS meals. I know most of the reviews are not great, but that hasn't been our experience anyway.