mom22boys said:
Thank you for your perspectives. Do you have better luck with ROFR with a 100 point or 150 point contract? Is ROFR such a challenge that it is better to just buy 150 points through DVC?
I am sure I am asking questions that have already been asked. I promise once we make it through Halloween I will use the search option on the boards to learn more!!
There are many more experienced and knowledgeable posters here, but as I have just spent the last month researching, discussing (DIS feedback was priceless!) and purchasing (ultimately through resale), I'll put in my two cents worth. (
warning - this opinion is coming from a "numbers" person - it could be longer than what you want to bother reading lol)
It seemed to me that 100 points seemed to be the break point - buy less, and you would need to spend a decent premium (>10%) to pass ROFR. Buy 100 points or more, and the offer price did not require the same premium AND it seemed it would have a better chance of passing ROFR.
Of course, nothing is that simple - I am a firm believer that ROFR results are heavily influenced by demand - if you are bidding on a smaller add-on and Disney has an existing member waiting for a similar contract, your offer is likely doomed, especially if you are a non-member. (Obviously (IMO) if you are a member Disney's incentive to buy out that contract is lessened, as you would be a possible buyer for the ROFR'd contract, anyway.) So, you need to consider potential demand when calculating your offer. HH is more popular in the short summer season - people visit, enjoy the resort and decide to purchase. Having not yet stayed in any DVC resort, I can only guess that those with grand villas are more popular around holiday times, demand for those within walking distance to Epcot increases around F&W festival, etc.
I don't think the challenge of ROFR is what makes a direct purchase "better" than resale - it is more a function of the numbers. First, try to estimate what you think the "best" number of points is (this is the most difficult part, IMO) and use that as your starting point. Be honest with yourself - are you the type of person that if you have "extra" points you'll be inviting the family (usually gratis, of course) or would you be willing to bank and/or rent excess? If you only need 75 points, 150 most likely would not be a "better deal" for you. You can then calculate your basic cost from Disney - if your need is close to or above 150.
Then, "run the numbers" - point cost, closing costs, monthly maintenance fees, etc. (Resales often "expect" to be reimbursed for MF, Disney pro-rates.) Don't forget to include any "extra" or "stripped" points in your calculations. Once you have those numbers, only then can you decide if it is "better" financially to buy direct, especially if it is more points than you need. I have found that some resale contracts were a better buy financially, but many were not. You need to do your homework here. But you are not done....
Once you have the financial comparison done, it is time to add in the intangibles. Buying resale usually takes longer, is more uncertain (can be ROFR'd), no CCs (unless you use those CC checks) & related reward points, and it is longer before you can book reservations. It also can be cheaper, is more likely to have extra points (be sure to ask if Disney is offering any with yur potential deal) and most people have had very good to excellent experiences with resale transactions. So, again be honest: do you have the time and patience to wait a little extra? Are you detail-oriented enough to do the calculations necessary? Are you willing to gamble on ROFR, even if you think you have structured the "perfect deal"? (I believe there will always be another suitable contract, it just means more time.) Is money enough of an issue, or is simplicity a higher priority for you? Resale might be an issue for you as well - smaller contracts will likely hold their resale value and continue to command a premium. At the very least, they are likely to sell faster than bigger contracts. And, let's not forget your desire for a home resort, and its importance (or lack thereof).
I believe that if you are honest with yourself while evaluating your options, you will make the right choice. Do what is best for your personality and/or lifestyle rather than what is the "better deal" and you will not go wrong here.