Disney Wonder to be homeported in Los Angeles

[smeecanada]

With a number of ships moving from Vancouver to Seattle in 2010, the port of Vancouver could very well make DCL an offer that would be hard to turn down.

I haven't really looked into this yet. But, one thing that was pointed out in an article I read the other day is that the new larger ships don't have enough clearance to go under the Lion's Gate Bridge. Not sure, if that is one of the reasons for ships being moved to Seattle.

DCL should have no problem. We cleared the Bridge of America's at Panama with a few inches to spare.

 

[NancyIL]

I haven't really looked into this yet. But, one thing that was pointed out in an article I read the other day is that the new larger ships don't have enough clearance to go under the Lion's Gate Bridge. Not sure, if that is one of the reasons for ships being moved to Seattle.

DCL should have no problem. We cleared the Bridge of America's at Panama with a few inches to spare.

The ships being moved to Seattle have been cruising from Vancouver, and the move has nothing to do with the size of the ship. The really large ships don't cruise in Alaska. For instance, Royal Caribbean's largest ships in Alaska are their Radiance-class ships and not their larger Voyager and Freedom-class ships.

Royal Caribbean is dropping one ship completely from Alaska in 2010, and Princess and Holland America are each moving one of their ships that has been doing one-ways between Vancouver and Alaska to Seattle to do roundtrips. Carnival is also moving its only ship in Alaska to Seattle for roundtrip cruises.

 

[awoltoday]

You're right about some of the Baltic ports being farther north than the ports on an Alaskan cruise. However (and I KNOW you know this) - Alaska cruises have one or two glacier-sailing days, and Baltic cruises don't. Sailing close to glaciers is COLDER than sailing close to Helsinki. I agree that you don't need to have an indoor pool on an Alaskan cruise, but I suppose it makes the rugrats happier!

Yes, it may be slightly colder sailing next to a glacier than it is sailing into Helsinki. But, I also KNOW that you don't need a roof over the pool or any other major modifications to the ship to comfortably sail by those glaciers. And VERY FEW, if any, people will be at the pool while Glacier viewing.

 

[NancyIL]

Yes, it may be slightly colder sailing next to a glacier than it is sailing into Helsinki. But, I also KNOW that you don't need a roof over the pool or any other major modifications to the ship to comfortably sail by those glaciers. And VERY FEW, if any, people will be at the pool while Glacier viewing.

VERY FEW people will be at the pool while Glacier viewing because there's no roof over the pool and it's too cold! All kidding aside, I think the biggest difference is that on an Alaskan cruise, people plan to spend more time outside to view the beautiful scenery. We were on a Baltic cruise a few years ago, and I was never outside except to get on and off the ship. It was also too cold to swim in the outdoor pool on a couple of sea days as we returned to the UK.

 

[awoltoday]

30 cruises per year
Putting together a few pieces of publicly available information, I think I can approximate how many cruises Disney expects to make out of LA. In 2008, Disney made 12 Mexican Riviera cruises out of LA. They guaranteed $285,025 from the $6.25 passenger fee, which they count at BOTH embarkation AND disembarkation. This gets you a Minimum Annual Passenger Guarantee (MAPG)
of 22802 passengers. Remembering we have to count passengers at BOTH embarkation AND disembarkation, we'll have to count 26 times (twice for each Mexico cruise and once for each repo). This gets us to an estimated 1754 passengers per count. This is pretty close to 75% of 2400 passengers that was stated as the estimate for the 2011 contract during the Port of LA commission meeting last night (Yes, the DCL contract was approved!). So, if you take the 2011 contract numbers ($1,262,880, $12 PF, 52620 MAPG) and do a little simple math, you get an estimated 30 cruises out of LA in 2010. That is just about the number of weeks covering the non-summer season (Jan-Apr & Oct-Dec). To get the minimum number of LA Port stops, using 7 day cruises in consecutive weeks, Disney must have the Wonder in LA for a Sunday, June 05, 2011 cruise (they would get to count passengers from the repo & passengers boarding on Sunday, December 25, 2011).

Starting with the 2008 contract...

Compensation: $285,025 per year, as a minimum total of passenger fees at $6.25 per passenger, with each passenger counted on embarkation and on disembarkation.

We have numbers for the minimum total of passenger fees and the fee per passenger. From this we can calculate the number of passengers they expected to count: 285025/6.25=45604. From that number, we can calculate the Minimum Annual Passenger Guarantee (MAPG), which is simply half of that. It is half because we are counting everybody twice - when they get AND when they get off. So, the 2008 MAPG is 22802.

We also know that Disney planned 12 cruises out of LA in 2008. They also made two one way trips into and out of LA for the repositioning. This means that the counted passengers 26 times (12*2 + 2). If you take the total number passengers they expected to count (45604) and divide it by the number of times they expected to count passengers (26), we arrive at the estimated number of passengers per cruise (45604/26=1754). This number corresponds with the comment made in the more recent LA Port commission meeting that the contract was based on 75% occupancy.

On to the 2011 contract!

Compensation: Minimum annual revenue of $1,262,880 for both years of the Permit, based on a Minimum Annual Passenger Guarantee (MAPG) of 52,620 and a per passenger fee of $12, with each passenger counted on embarkation and on disembarkation from the vessel.

So, this time they gave us the MAPG of 52,620. So, we can quickly multiply this by 2 and come up with an expected total passenger count of 105240. You can also do a sanity check and use the total annual revenue & per passenger fee to come to the same number. We can now use the estimated number of passengers per cruise to calculate the number of times they expect to count passengers (105240/1754=60). So, to count passengers 60 times per year, would require 30 round trips out of LA or, possibly more likely, 29 round trips and 2 repositioning cruises.

 

[Andrew DEREK UK]

Starting with the 2008 contract...



We have numbers for the minimum total of passenger fees and the fee per passenger. From this we can calculate the number of passengers they expected to count: 285025/6.25=45604. From that number, we can calculate the Minimum Annual Passenger Guarantee (MAPG), which is simply half of that. It is half because we are counting everybody twice - when they get AND when they get off. So, the 2008 MAPG is 22802.

We also know that Disney planned 12 cruises out of LA in 2008. They also made two one way trips into and out of LA for the repositioning. This means that the counted passengers 26 times (12*2 + 2). If you take the total number passengers they expected to count (45604) and divide it by the number of times they expected to count passengers (26), we arrive at the estimated number of passengers per cruise (45604/26=1754). This number corresponds with the comment made in the more recent LA Port commission meeting that the contract was based on 75% occupancy.

On to the 2011 contract!


So, this time they gave us the MAPG of 52,620. So, we can quickly multiply this by 2 and come up with an expected total passenger count of 105240. You can also do a sanity check and use the total annual revenue & per passenger fee to come to the same number. We can now use the estimated number of passengers per cruise to calculate the number of times they expect to count passengers (105240/1754=60). So, to count passengers 60 times per year, would require 30 round trips out of LA or, possibly more likely, 29 round trips and 2 repositioning cruises.

Hey, I believe every thing you say, (apart from any cruise departing from HSBC @ 8 C SQ- The ships will not fit in the docks) Thanks for the update on the maths, go and have a lie down now!

 

[awoltoday]

Hey, I believe every thing you say, (apart from any cruise departing from HSBC @ 8 C SQ- The ships will not fit in the docks) Thanks for the update on the maths, go and have a lie down now!

LOL... Square Bob Some Place... Sponge Bob Square Place? idunno! I've been to both, so you would think I could keep them straight! But, I might have been at BP and not HSBC... I just know we couldn't take pictures of anything and we knocked out a bunch of pints after work Hmmm... not so different from Canada Place!

 

[Andrew DEREK UK]

LOL... Square Bob Some Place... Sponge Bob Square Place? idunno! I've been to both, so you would think I could keep them straight! But, I might have been at BP and not HSBC... I just know we couldn't take pictures of anything and we knocked out a bunch of pints after work Hmmm... not so different from Canada Place!

They are all drunk at 8 C Sq.

 

[pillow]

Oh, I know that, but there are some people who like the ease of having everything planned for them. On our past Alaska cruise we planned and booked all of our own excursions. I expect we will do the same when we take our girls to Alaska, including the land portion.

I planned the land portion about a year ago when we were thinking we would sail Alaska on RCCL Northbound. That trip never happened, but I still have the itinerary. I will be disappointed if Dis does a roundtrip cruise - would spoil my Alaska plans. However, I would like to visit Seattle - have never been.

So, lets assume that the Mex Riviera is Fall/Winter only with Alaska being Spring/Summer. What is the weather like on the Riviera during the Fall/Winter months?

Jodie