Disney Is the Happiest Place on Earth, if You Can Afford It

[Willow Ufgood]

You both went during the slowest season. There's a reason why summer is the cheapest time to go. This has been discussed to death in many threads. Wait until next June and you'll see many more dead parks low crowds threads from folks who have an axe to grind.

You act as if I've never been to WDW in the summer before. This was very different from other years. The crowds just weren't there like in the past. I don't have an axe to grind. I own DVC and the last thing I want is for the parks to fail. But between the high costs of admission, the numerous upcharges and the ever present construction walls I can understand why people aren't flocking to Disney parks right now.

 

[DCLMP]

You both went during the slowest season. There's a reason why summer is the cheapest time to go. This has been discussed to death in many threads. Wait until next June and you'll see many more dead parks low crowds threads from folks who have an axe to grind.

No one has an axe to grind. You seem completely oblivious to whats going on economically in this country. Why your so offended that people may have to pull back on discretionary spending is beyond me.

 

[Minnie1222]

You act as if I've never been to WDW in the summer before. This was very different from other years. The crowds just weren't there like in the past.

That's the thing! As a regular, you already knew that our observations don't reflect the true picture, since attendance fluctuates through the year, or even the hour. What we see is only true for that particular moment. That is why we rely on official reports. So far, there's no indication of a sharp decline in attendance.

 

[Minnie1222]

You seem completely oblivious to whats going on economically in this country. Why your so offended that people may have to pull back on discretionary spending is beyond me.

All I said was "the parks are still packed"!

 

[DCLMP]

All I said was "the parks are still packed"!

The term packed is very subjective.

 

[Willow Ufgood]

That's the thing! As a regular, you already knew that our observations don't reflect the true picture, since attendance fluctuates through the year, or even the hour. What we see is only true for that particular moment. That is why we rely on official reports. So far, there's no indication of a sharp decline in attendance.

Saying that the parks are still packed is an observation and subjective just as is my observation that the crowds were sparse during my visit. But crowd levels can be assessed using wait times and comparing one year to the previous year. For that, I recommend checking thrilldata.com . It gives a good picture of how long standby waits have been over time and also how long LL for individual attractions remained available before selling out.

We haven't seen Q4 reports which would include July, August and September (typically slower months as of late) but Q1 specifically mentioned decreased attendance at domestic parks and attributed it to hurricane activity. Q2 does say that attendance in domestic parks was up YOY. Disney never provides exact numbers but I accept their assertion that attendance was indeed up in the period between late December 2024 and late March 2025. The Q3 report does not mention attendance but rather attributes increased revenue to higher per guest spending and increased hotel occupancy. It's an omission that I find interesting and might actually mean nothing.

To be fair, investors only care about the bottom line. There's no reason to report any negatives if the overall revenue is up YOY. If revenue is down, then there will be an explanation or scapegoat if you will, as was given in Q1.

 

[Dakota731]

No one has an axe to grind. You seem completely oblivious to whats going on economically in this country. Why your so offended that people may have to pull back on discretionary spending is beyond me.

What’s going on in this country economically is that inflation is 2.7% and mortgage interest rates are average 5.8%. When we bought our house in 1980, inflation was at 14% and our mortgage was 18 PERCENT! Gas prices are significantly lower now than they were during the 2022 peaks. US Unemployment Rate is 4.3%. This is lower than the long term average of 5.67%.After adjusting for inflation, wages are at their highest point in U.S. history, according to the Center for American Progress.
So I’m not sure what all the gloom and doom is about.

 

[pooch]

Do remember that one of the reasons for the spike in mortgage rates was the removal of the cap on savings account interest. Interest had been capped at 5% for all banks/credit unions. That cap was removed so there was a huge increase in rates to attract more business. I ran the mortgage servicing department at a local bank and we were paying 15-18% on 1 year CDs. In order to generate enough income to pay that, mortgage rates soared to 21% and then we had the advent of the adjustable rate mortgage!
So yes, you paid a ridiculous rate on your mortgage but also got a MUCH higher rate on your savings.

 

[RivShore]

But crowd levels can be assessed using wait times and comparing one year to the previous year. For that, I recommend checking thrilldata.com

That YOY wait time view is not a good way to measure crowds because WDW made some significant changes to LL and DAS, which lowered wait times for stand by, so the same number could be in the park but wait times are actually lower. @lentesta (of touringplans) mentioned some details around the changes in one of the "it's dead this summer" threads earlier this year.

 

[Minnie1222]

To be fair, investors only care about the bottom line.

Agreed!

 

[lentesta]

That YOY wait time view is not a good way to measure crowds because WDW made some significant changes to LL and DAS, which lowered wait times for stand by, so the same number could be in the park but wait times are actually lower. @lentesta (of touringplans) mentioned some details around the changes in one of the "it's dead this summer" threads earlier this year.

Thanks @RivShore!

A couple of points around wait times:

• Disney's said/implied on recent earnings calls and in SEC filings that domestic park attendance is (variously) slightly down, flat, or slightly up.
  • That means a significant change in attendance - more than 10% each way - hasn't happened. That would have to be disclosed.
• The tightning of DAS eligibilityin June '24 led to a dramatic drop in Lightning Lane (LL) use, and thus standby (SB) wait times
  • How do I know this? We were counting guests getting in line at major rides, minute by minute, for both SB and LL, for a year before it happened, and more than a year after, for our own wait-time models.
• Around January of this year, we noticed Disney's posted wait times were consistently closer to the actual waits than in past years
  • How do I know this? We collect actual waits in line from staff and users every day.
  • The posted wait time isn't always adjusted, and sometimes it's not great, but it's definitely better.
  • I suspect this comes from Disney Legal wanting to avoid a lawsuit accusing them of artificially inflating wait times to sell LL. (And I don't think they're doing that - even without data, the people I know who'd have to do that would quit first.)
• Around April of this year, Disney changed the ratio of LL guests to SB guests pulled at the merge point.
  • The old default ratio was 4 LL to 1 SB
  • The new default ratio is 1:1, which shortens waits for SB and makes LL waits ever-so-slightly longer
    • Explaining this is complicated enough that we built a simulation of 7DMT using commercial software.
  • How do I know this? By counting people in lines as noted above. Also, coincidentally, an internal document saying this fell off a truck outside my house. We gotta get those potholes in Celebration fixed.

As @RivShore said, that's enough to lower wait times without reducing crowds.

I told Disney that those efforts would be the Operations Research project of the year if they wanted to talk about it. I'm sure they won't. But it's great work by them to improve the guest experience, especially for guests who aren't buying LL.

That said, there's still enough noise in posted wait times to make them unreliable for (say) touring plans or certain side-by-side comparisons.

As an example, the average day-of-week (DOW) posted waits for Epic Universe for the ~16 weeks it's been open are all between ~45 and ~55 minutes, but the standard deviation of those wait times is like 35-40 minutes each day. So the confidence intervals at even a 60% confidence level (a bit better than a 50/50 coin flip) are wide enough that you can't be sure one's different than another. And that's after you assume no DOW had less accurate posteds, worse ride reliability, weather, etc.

I could be wrong.

 

[DCLMP]

What’s going on in this country economically is that inflation is 2.7% and mortgage interest rates are average 5.8%. When we bought our house in 1980, inflation was at 14% and our mortgage was 18 PERCENT! Gas prices are significantly lower now than they were during the 2022 peaks. US Unemployment Rate is 4.3%. This is lower than the long term average of 5.67%.After adjusting for inflation, wages are at their highest point in U.S. history, according to the Center for American Progress.
So I’m not sure what all the gloom and doom is about.

At 2.7% down from what over the last three or four years. Prices went up dramatically and have stayed there. Mortgage rates are at average 6.13% up from about 2% four years ago. The last two job numbers have been abysmal. The job numbers were revised down from 2024. 67% of Americans claim they live paycheck to paycheck. Average age of first time homebuyers is close to 40 years old. National debt sits at over 37 trillion. Margin debt is at an all time high of over 1 trillion....that's a big one. Credit card debt is at all time high of 1.2 trillion. Mortgage debt all times highs. College debt all time highs. If you think debt is great then the economy is great. Housing prices are starting to unwind which may be a good thing. The last few bond market sales have been weak.

Powell cut rates today and announced more rate cuts. You don't cut rates when the economy is strong. The last time he cut short term rates long term rates went up. It will be interesting to see how the debt market reacts this time.

Disney putting out discounts on rooms, cruises, and reduced prices on tickets isn't because they are selling them at full price.

 

[Dakota731]

Oh I forgot to add that stock market is at record highs as well.
You can’t blame the economy on people ruining their financial lives by going into massive student loan debt often for degrees that will never pay off financially. You can’t blame the economy for people spending more than they make and amassing tons of credit card debt. There is a real need for fiscal education in this country right now.
There are generations of families who bought homes and were able to live the American dream by spending responsibly and within their means. We paid off two homes in fourteen years never making more than $35,000 combined income. We paid our local college degrees off as we went with scholarships and working several jobs. We bought a starter home first and never paid a cent in credit card interest. We didn’t inherit money or get any financial support from our parents once we moved out at age 22. And we aren’t exceptions - our parents did the same as well as many of our friends. We also had other friends with similar incomes who chose a different lifestyle - degrees from “fancy” colleges, new cars and fancy vacations every year and choosing huge homes for their starter house. We lived by a lot of Dave Ramsay’s principles without ever knowing it before he was on the air.

 

[DCLMP]

Oh I forgot to add that stock market is at record highs as well.
You can’t blame the economy on people ruining their financial lives by going into massive student loan debt often for degrees that will never pay off financially. You can’t blame the economy for people spending more than they make and amassing tons of credit card debt. There is a real need for fiscal education in this country right now.
There are generations of families who bought homes and were able to live the American dream by spending responsibly and within their means. We paid off two homes in fourteen years never making more than $35,000 combined income. We paid our local college degrees off as we went with scholarships and working several jobs. We bought a starter home first and never paid a cent in credit card interest. We didn’t inherit money or get any financial support from our parents once we moved out at age 22. And we aren’t exceptions - our parents did the same as well as many of our friends. We also had other friends with similar incomes who chose a different lifestyle - degrees from “fancy” colleges, new cars and fancy vacations every year and choosing huge homes for their starter house. We lived by a lot of Dave Ramsay’s principles without ever knowing it before he was on the air.

Sounds like boomer economics. You can't blame the economy that peopler are in debt? You can't blame the economy for the fiscal debt?????What the heck are you talking about that is the economy. You can't separate your personal situation from reality. I hate to break it to you, but the stock isn't going to go up forever it will pop like it always does.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Oh I forgot to add that stock market is at record highs as well.
You can’t blame the economy on people ruining their financial lives by going into massive student loan debt often for degrees that will never pay off financially.

There isn't really much alternative. Even if the degree pays off financially you're going to be in debt for your 20s and probably some of your 30s.

You can’t blame the economy for people spending more than they make and amassing tons of credit card debt. There is a real need for fiscal education in this country right now.
There are generations of families who bought homes and were able to live the American dream by spending responsibly and within their means. We paid off two homes in fourteen years never making more than $35,000 combined income.

What is 35k adjusted for inflation? And what did those houses cost?

We paid our local college degrees off as we went with scholarships and working several jobs.

I guarantee the ratio between the cost of your schooling and the hourly wage of that job has changed significantly.

I didn't even graduate college that long ago (2007) and even I realize the situation that new grads are facing is significantly different than what it was when I graduated. My state school that was a little over $3,400 a semester is now $8,800.

 

[DCLMP]

It's not my 20 year old son's fault he can't afford to go to college without debt. I went to Cal state school in California late 80's early 90's. It cost 19 dollars a credit hour roughly 300-400 dollars a semester. I never had college debt nor did my husband and no I didn't have to work two jobs to pay for it. Tuition now is 7k a semester in our state for a state university.

I get tired of old people talking about how "they did it" without debt. As a part of Gen X I feel partly responsible for leaving this mess to my kids. Boomers should feel even worse.

 

[kathyk2]

I graduated from a state college in 1990. My tuition for all four years would be about one year of tuition now. I paid for a semester of summer classes with dorm fees without much trouble. My nieces are in college now and they can't do that.

 

[Twilghtsprkle]

I went to the smaller state university in 1995. I can’t comment on affording it since I got into their honors program and tuition was taken care of. I do see that while the still have an honors program, it no longer covers the full tuition (you get $4500, but tuition is $7300 now).

As long as my kids pick a state school, they will graduate without debt. They both inherited money when their aunt & uncle passed during covid. We have been upfront about how much they have so they know for their college planning. My husband has been investing it as well so it’s grown by 30%.

 

[Dakota731]

The economy didn’t make people go into debt! We all make choices in life. I don’t understand the mindset that “life just happens to me and I have no control over it.” Our parents lived through a much tougher era and were able to buy homes and retire comfortably. Of course, they never had a credit card and never bought something they couldn’t afford.
All three of our kids went to college and graduated without debt as well as my husband and I. And one of them is a physician. We saved for college with savings bonds for them and 529 plans, they worked and got scholarships. They didn’t choose expensive schools and they worked while in school. They were RAs so they got free room and board. And we are very strictly in the middle of middle class. It takes work and sacrifice, but it’s worth it that our kids didn’t start their lives in debt, and are now all home owners as well.

 

[Minnie1222]

A poor economy can certainly push people into debt. An unexpected illness or a major repair can force someone into debt if they're unemployed or just not making as much as they used to. Not all debts are due to people living above their means.

When someone brags about a record-high stock market, I always want to know how many of these rocket shares they really own and how much have they made from them, because it doesn't help me if I don’t own any of them.