Disney holding back FP+s for day-of

[ArwenMarie]

I think the fact that those numbers (25-40%) were before offsite could prebook is very, very important. It will take some time to get everyone prebooking, especially offsite. I can see the logic behind always holding some back for day-of, but I think that number will move as needed.

I also think that there can be different choices built into the system depending what class of customer you are (offsite or onsite). Maybe if you are onsite, you get to see more choices even if it means that they take that slot away from the FPs that have been set aside.

For Anna and Elsa, has there been any availability day-of I wonder?

Mine Train will be another interesting example.

 

[OtherScott]

Maybe so. But if you read Hub's post closely, the ability to display or provide availability based on ticket type is there, just as it's outlined in the Patent. So, what a single day off-site ticket gets to see (and reserve) may not be what a multi-day deluxe on-siter gets to see and reserve.

For, example, Disney may well want the multi-day deluxe guest to be able to get all of their "good ones" reserved in a 4-5 hour afternoon window so they can play golf, hit the day spa, etc., in the morning while the single day off-siter may only see all of their "good ones" spread out over an 8 (or longer) hour period of time.

Holding some specific availability out for same day also makes sense as a way to get guests to stay longer in the Parks (as they've said), now that the ability to move on to a 4th after using 3 is on it's way.

This type of functionality is what caused the high price tag and will be incredibly difficult for those of us on the sidelines to monitor as they start to add these levels of sophistication they've paid so much for.

I think they would have to hold back a ridiculous percentage and variations to try and anticipate what various classes of guests will want to do, and when. On a scale of probably prohibitive.

Maybe with the level and scope of data mining and analysis available, they will be able to make accurate projections in the future.

I agree that the 4th FP day of is strategic, which is why I think it was always going to be there. Easier to keep a guest than get a guest, and no sense turning out the lights with FPs in the system. And no guest will know what is available until after they've purchased their tickets. Limited supply 60 days out might hurt Disney with resort goers, but not as much with non-resort guests.

 

[clsteve]

I think they would have to hold back a ridiculous percentage and variations to try and anticipate what various classes of guests will want to do, and when. On a scale of probably prohibitive.

Nothing would be "held back" that's not really the way things like this work in the data world. It's a level of prioritization and a weighting of schedules based on the guest and/or ticket type (and several other things). And, it's the inter-relationship of the three selections that's most important, here. It's still the same finite inventory.

That prohibitive scale and ridiculous percentages and variations you mentioned? Programming all of those into that big, shiny, new, data warehouse was the big ticket item in all of this and the "thing that's never been done before" the analysts keep alluding to...

 

[mickeysgirl17]

Why does planning a trip have to be so stressful now?

My thoughts exactly.

Tried changing time for TSM and it said nothing available. I've learned when you get that message restart your phone and it will work. I restarted and it gave me 11 times slots starting at 10:30am. I cancelled them because my niece and her family aren't here this trip and I didn't want to cancel our FPs for MK. Now if my daughter and her family would wake up. No rope drop today!

Does this really work? I don't get how restarting your phone makes a difference in whether or not there are slots available. Have others had success with this?

That was my question too. I'm also curious to know if they are holding FP's back, whether they are staged. Do they release some of those in reserve at the 30 day mark and then the rest on the day of?

I must admit I was pretty stunned at that figure which looks really high for holding out of the available pool.

Well, we know now that they are holding fastpasses back for day-of guests to get at kiosks. I would assume they are also holding some for those booking 30 day out. Still, if someone who books 30 days out doesn't get what they want, they still can clearly run to a kiosk and still have hope now because Disney is holding some back...still translates to long lines at a kiosk just to save some time waiting in a line later for an attraction...I still don't see how we are saving much time here.

^This about sums up my thoughts/feelings on the system as it currently stands. I really won't appreciate them holding back FP+ for day-of guests if it comes at the expense of guests pre-planning, as Disney is forcing us to do (if we want FPs that is - I know I don't HAVE to do anything). I wish the whole system could be day of - just let me sign in a 6 or 7 AM and book my FP+s for that day. But we all know their web site wouldn't handle that.

Makes you wonder how much advantage on site guests really do have if they are still holding some for day guests while in the park. It would suck to be told "no times available" from home, yet a day of guest can easily get a fp from a kiosk because they were being held by Disney just for them. So how does this make me want to stay on site? This would just frustrate and annoy me.

Maybe so. But if you read Hub's post closely, the ability to display or provide availability based on ticket type is there, just as it's outlined in the Patent. So, what a single day off-site ticket gets to see (and reserve) may not be what a multi-day deluxe on-siter gets to see and reserve.

So unfair if this is true. Disney would be favoring some guests over others.

 

[clsteve]

So unfair if this is true. Disney would be favoring some guests over others.

Well, you've hit on the naked truth of how corporations work.

But, I'm sure Disney would say, guests are also getting more value in return.

Take the single day, off-site guest as an example: previously, that person might show up on a level 7 day at 11am, spend 6 frustrated hours in the park in long SB's and leave unsatisfied. Now, (their thinking, not mine) that same guest gets to do 3 rides they want with minimal wait. In return, Disney has now spread those rides out over an 8 or 9 hour period- expecting those additional 2 or 3 hours will bring in a higher spend rate from that guest. Higher level of satisfaction for the guest, more revenue for Disney (again, their thinking, not mine).

With the millions who visit, just moving the time-in-park needle a few percentage points is real revenue. It won't work for all guests in each category and they're not expecting it to- just the overall percentages moving in their favor is what they want.

 

[lugnut33]

I love when clsteve posts. Always thought provoking.

 

[sara74]

Just to post my personal experience with this...

We arrive onsite this Friday (4/11) and are vacationing with friends who are staying off site for the same 9 days. We are planning to do some park touring together every day - we have 3 children, they have 2. I made my FP+ picks probably a month ago - certainly not right on the day they opened. They made theirs yesterday (i.e. 6-15 days in advance) In almost every case we were able to book significantly overlapping windows (i.e. we have 3:45-4:45 and they have 4-5) so that for 22 of the 27 FP+'s we booked, all 9 of us will be able to ride together.

We park hop, they don't. We RD, they don't. Crowd levels will be through the roof, I am sure. My plan is to hit RD EMH and then hop to the park we have the FP+ for to meet our friends there. Of course this is subject to my children, and husband's, cooperation! Wish us luck. I will try to remember to check the FP+ availability for the day of while we are waiting for the parks to open!

Thanks for the great discussion and all the great information, everyone!

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

Disney would be favoring some guests over others.

And some seem to think that the new system is more fair.

 

[OtherScott]

Nothing would be "held back" that's not really the way things like this work in the data world. It's a level of prioritization and a weighting of schedules based on the guest and/or ticket type (and several other things). And, it's the inter-relationship of the three selections that's most important, here. It's still the same finite inventory.

That prohibitive scale and ridiculous percentages and variations you mentioned? Programming all of those into that big, shiny, new, data warehouse was the big ticket item in all of this and the "thing that's never been done before" the analysts keep alluding to...

I thought when we were using the term "hold back," we all assumed that this was prioritization. I didn't think anyone was talking about exhausting supply within the class of pre-books such that only "day-of" inventory would remain.

I guess my point is that "several other things" will carry more weight than ticket type - overall demand being the biggest driver. The scales and variations I'm talking about are prohibitive only in the sense that they are economically so. They'll be able to build a model but there isn't much reason to.

It really comes down to first things first for me.

The inter-relationship of the 3 FPs is the most underappreciated aspect of this system. Getting you from #1 to #3 is priority.

 

[OtherScott]

Does this really work? I don't get how restarting your phone makes a difference in whether or not there are slots available. Have others had success with this?

His phone is probably just storing the previous page. My iPad does this with lots of apps. Just need to make sure you actually exit the app, not reboot your phone.

 

[ferd]

I have a question I hope someone can answer. I am currently holding FP+ for Anna and Elsa for 4/20, 4/26 and 4/27. I have been going into the system to try to find availability for other days in May. (I'm an AP and can only book 30 days out.) I have gotten on at midnight and cannot catch any more FP+ at all for A & E (though the three I did get were relatively easy to snag. Guess the word has gotten out. ) Anyways, my question is, when I go into the system as though I am searching for a FP+, the only days that shows FP+ are the days I have already booked. (And this is when I go in blindly as though I want to book a FP+ not going in under the 'Change a FP+ route.) When I see they have availability those days, I then back out and go into the 'change FP+ route' and look for alternative times and then there is nothing available those days. Does that make any sense?

Also, I was chatting a week or two ago with another AP who was desperate to book a FP+ for the days I had FP+ already booked for. I kept telling her that I could see mulitple times available for booking for that day. I even took a screengrab to show her all of the times for that day that were showing up as available for me, but when she went into the system A & E were completely greyed out.

So is it set up that if you are already 'locked in' for a certain attraction on a certain day, you can see other times available for that day as they pop up, but a person who hasn't booked any for that day and are looking to do so cannot see the times for that day as they become available? Does that make sense what I'm asking?

 

[WillAustin]

So unfair if this is true. Disney would be favoring some guests over others.

The interesting part of this is that, on the surface, nobody would be able to tell if it was actually happening. It could all be done in software behind the scenes.

 

[CFioren317]

***RANT***

I booked my trip the other day for quite a few bucks and my 60-day out date is April 23rd. If I check the website on midnight on April 23rd and there are rides that are not available for ANY of the times and/or days I want, I will be making a call to the WDW people and asking them why they are so booked 60 days out and that they need to open up some of the 25-40% that they are holding back. There's no way I am shelling out thousands of dollars to be able to take advantage of the FP+ and all this MyMagic+ stuff, only to check and be told "Your times are booked". I can understand the dining reservations stuff, because those things are optional and you can always eat something a hundred different places. But not the rides. We go to Disney for the rides. And if you are going to hold me to 3 FPs a day, when I try to book them 60 DAYS IN ADVANCE!!! they better be available!!!!!!!!!!

***END RANT***

 

[ferd]

***RANT***

I booked my trip the other day for quite a few bucks and my 60-day out date is April 23rd. If I check the website on midnight on April 23rd and there are rides that are not available for ANY of the times and/or days I want, I will be making a call to the WDW people and asking them why they are so booked 60 days out and that they need to open up some of the 25-40% that they are holding back. There's no way I am shelling out thousands of dollars to be able to take advantage of the FP+ and all this MyMagic+ stuff, only to check and be told "Your times are booked". I can understand the dining reservations stuff, because those things are optional and you can always eat something a hundred different places. But not the rides. We go to Disney for the rides. And if you are going to hold me to 3 FPs a day, when I try to book them 60 DAYS IN ADVANCE!!! they better be available!!!!!!!!!!

***END RANT***

Just out of curiosity, what are the rides you are finding booked at 60 days out? I'm an AP and can only book 30 days out and I can pretty much get whatever I want a day or two before (with the exception of A & E.) (And I'm not a fan of FP+ so don't take it that way, I'm mostly just curious.)

 

[FlipHipster]

Well, you've hit on the naked truth of how corporations work.

But, I'm sure Disney would say, guests are also getting more value in return.

Take the single day, off-site guest as an example: previously, that person might show up on a level 7 day at 11am, spend 6 frustrated hours in the park in long SB's and leave unsatisfied. Now, (their thinking, not mine) that same guest gets to do 3 rides they want with minimal wait. In return, Disney has now spread those rides out over an 8 or 9 hour period- expecting those additional 2 or 3 hours will bring in a higher spend rate from that guest. Higher level of satisfaction for the guest, more revenue for Disney (again, their thinking, not mine).

With the millions who visit, just moving the time-in-park needle a few percentage points is real revenue. It won't work for all guests in each category and they're not expecting it to- just the overall percentages moving in their favor is what they want.

And they would get away with it too if it weren't for those meddling guests and their dang expectations.

Just out of curiosity, what are the rides you are finding booked at 60 days out? I'm an AP and can only book 30 days out and I can pretty much get whatever I want a day or two before (with the exception of A & E.) (And I'm not a fan of FP+ so don't take it that way, I'm mostly just curious.)

Maybe you're hitting some of those "business rules" clsteve was talking about earlier. Its no longer as easy as, I have a ticket and you have a ticket. It's I have a blue ticket and you have a red ticket and red tickets can only book x,y,z etc..

 

[clsteve]

Also, I was chatting a week or two ago with another AP who was desperate to book a FP+ for the days I had FP+ already booked for. I kept telling her that I could see mulitple times available for booking for that day. I even took a screengrab to show her all of the times for that day that were showing up as available for me, but when she went into the system A & E were completely greyed out.

So is it set up that if you are already 'locked in' for a certain attraction on a certain day, you can see other times available for that day as they pop up, but a person who hasn't booked any for that day and are looking to do so cannot see the times for that day as they become available? Does that make sense what I'm asking?

The interesting part of this is that, on the surface, nobody would be able to tell if it was actually happening. It could all be done in software behind the scenes.

Yep

 

[JimmyV]

Also, I was chatting a week or two ago with another AP who was desperate to book a FP+ for the days I had FP+ already booked for. I kept telling her that I could see mulitple times available for booking for that day. I even took a screengrab to show her all of the times for that day that were showing up as available for me, but when she went into the system A & E were completely greyed out.

This is not cool.

Guest: So...are there any FPs available?

Customer Service: Yes and No.

G: What do you mean?

CS: YES there are, but NO, you can't have one.

If this is really the way that things are going to work, then I am guessing that a lot of the "I love FP+" people are going to retract their vote, and the "FP+ is actually more fair than FP-" argument is going to be really, really hard to sustain.

 

[CFioren317]

Just out of curiosity, what are the rides you are finding booked at 60 days out? I'm an AP and can only book 30 days out and I can pretty much get whatever I want a day or two before (with the exception of A & E.) (And I'm not a fan of FP+ so don't take it that way, I'm mostly just curious.)

I'm not within 60 days yet...I'll let you know when I get there if I have any problems. It was just a preemptive rant before the fact.

To be serious, I highly doubt I won't be able to get all the rides I want on exactly the days I want, but just in case, I have it on record that I was thinking about it

I'm doing 6 days without hoppers, so probably going to do 3 days at MK and then 1 each at the other parks. Probably going to get the Frozen thing...the dwarf mine ride...peter pan...stuff like that. My daughter's 6 so she doesn't like Space mountain. Not sure what else. Then toy story ride, safari, test track, etc.

I'm glad to hear you aren't having any problems though...makes me feel a little better. I think the #1 things are the Frozen and dwarf ride...is that even open yet?

 

[FlipHipster]

This is not cool.

Guest: So...are there any FPs available?

Customer Service: Yes and No.

G: What do you mean?

CS: YES there are, but NO, you can't have one.

If this is really the way that things are going to work, then I am guessing that a lot of the "I love FP+" people are going to retract their vote, and the "FP+ is actually more fair than FP-" argument is going to be really, really hard to sustain.

This is why I went on my rant several threads ago about all the rules involved with who gets what and when and how it will be determined.

 

[ArwenMarie]

***RANT***

I booked my trip the other day for quite a few bucks and my 60-day out date is April 23rd. If I check the website on midnight on April 23rd and there are rides that are not available for ANY of the times and/or days I want, I will be making a call to the WDW people and asking them why they are so booked 60 days out and that they need to open up some of the 25-40% that they are holding back. There's no way I am shelling out thousands of dollars to be able to take advantage of the FP+ and all this MyMagic+ stuff, only to check and be told "Your times are booked". I can understand the dining reservations stuff, because those things are optional and you can always eat something a hundred different places. But not the rides. We go to Disney for the rides. And if you are going to hold me to 3 FPs a day, when I try to book them 60 DAYS IN ADVANCE!!! they better be available!!!!!!!!!!

***END RANT***

At 60 days out at midnight, you should be able to get everything you want as an onsite customer. If not, Disney risks people canceling their rooms/packages.