What would define success? I don't think this can actually fail in any regard.
But if every current AP holder expected to get 4x6 $25 cards as part of this promotion, they have their expectations set WAY too high.
Remember, we are a small subset of Disney's guests. We just have a forum by which we can exchange this stuff fairly easily. I suspect a great majority of these will go unused simply because people won't know anyone who can use them.
This isn't some stupid KFC promotion.