DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[clarker99]

RE: Disney+ Hotstar

Disney+ Hotstar clients have only produced $0.59/mo per user over the last 2 reported quarters.

Tech costs alone run Disney about $1.25 to $1.30 per user per month.

Every single Hotstar subscriber that cancels is a net positive for Disney's bottom line.

 

[clarker99]

Approximate Profit/Loss per Sub per Quarter for DTC.

Approx $0.75 per user per month is the gap to break-even.

Q1FY24 (Oct-Dec) will see price increases take effect in October. Full extent of SG & A cuts will be in effect. New ad tiers for Canada and Europe. This will be the earnings call to look forward to for DTC.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.thewrap.com/nbcuniversa...-ceos-return-to-wga-strike-negotiation-talks/

Disney’s Bob Iger, NBCU’s Donna Langley and Other Studio CEOs Return to WGA Strike Negotiation Talks

Thursday marks the second day in a row executives have unexpectedly been present at the table with guild leadership

Umberto Gonzalez
September 21, 2023 @ 1:05 PM PDT

NBCUniveral’s Donna Langley, Disney’s Bob Iger, Netflix’s Ted Sarandos and Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslav have returned to the WGA and AMPTP negotiation table, according to insiders with knowledge of the talks.

Thursday marks the second day in a row that the executives have unexpectedly been present at the table with guild leadership.

Both sides are making another attempt to negotiate a new contract, nearly a month after a contentious meeting between guild leaders and the AMPTP. The fact that studio leadership is present underscores the pressing need to reach an agreement.

TheWrap exclusively reported that showrunners had an emotional meeting with the WGA negotiating committee on Monday in which they stressed the crippling financial situation many are suffering through.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

May have already been posted but Iger’s comments earlier this week where he said Disney planned to to “quiet the noise” in the culture war, sure were great to hear. I just see zero benefit for the stockholders when Disney gets into culture war related junk. I applaud this effort, and let’s make great entertainment / experiences return to be Disney’s main focus.

 

[clarker99]

https://t.co/kC56Dw26gq

Amazon Prime Video… commercial breaks incoming. I guess even the big boys can’t just use AWS profits make endless ad free TV.

 

[wabbott]

https://t.co/kC56Dw26gq

Amazon Prime Video… commercial breaks incoming. I guess even the big boys can’t just use AWS profits make endless ad free TV.

It was their plan all along, imo.

 

[HokieRaven5]

https://t.co/kC56Dw26gq

Amazon Prime Video… commercial breaks incoming. I guess even the big boys can’t just use AWS profits make endless ad free TV.

Timing the announcement in line with what appears to be progress with the writers strike is certainly a choice.

 

[bryaalre]

May have already been posted but Igor’s comments earlier this week where he said Disney planned to to “quiet the noise” in the culture war, sure were great to hear. I just see zero benefit for the stockholders when Disney gets into culture war related junk. I applaud this effort, and let’s make great entertainment / experiences return to be Disney’s main focus.

Iger essentially said nothing with that statement. What does it even mean?

It's not like their going to drop the lawsuit or back down against Desantis. They haven't done anything in awhile anyways that would oppose Desantis besides continuing to say they are in the right.

They won't stop LGBTQ (nor should they stop) merchandise and characters showing up in movies and TV shows. Unless they decide to not release Snow White, that movie will continue to get hated on by groups of people for the next 6 months and will continue this culture wars for Disney for months after release.

There is no quiet the noise until everything goes away but everything won't go away.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Agree to disagree. You can both have your pet causes, and not engage is stupid fights also.

They never should have made that cringy hostage video with Chapek about the parental rights in education bill. That was foolish if you want all customers to continue to believe you aren’t choosing sides. No one cares if Disney wants to support its employees and their lifestyles. What they do care about is engaging in divisive nonsense, that was completely avoidable. Don’t alienate any of your customers, it’s that simple.

 

[irlandaise]

They never should have made that cringy hostage video with Chapek about the parental rights in education bill. That was foolish if you want all customers to continue to believe you aren’t choosing sides. No one cares if Disney wants to support its employees and their lifestyles. What they do care about is engaging in divisive nonsense, that was completely avoidable.

If you think that Chapek's statement supported "lifestyles," then I can see how you consider such statements expendable. Hint: someone's sexual orientation or gender identity is not a trivial "lifestyle," it's who they are.

Don’t alienate any of your customers, it’s that simple.

Please tell me you don't really believe that's "simple." It is, in fact, impossible.

You've made it clear which of Disney's customers you don't want offended, but they do get offended the moment Disney makes a non-traditional choice in its films (cf "The Little Mermaid" and "Snow White"). Or if they even think that Disney has done so (cf "Elemental").

 

[Jwaire]

JP Morgan giving DIS some signs of life.

Walt Disney • DIS-NYSE
Overweight • Price $82.56 on Sept. 21
by J.P. Morgan

"Walt Disney hosted a parks-focused analyst meeting at Walt Disney World, where speakers included CEO Bob Iger, Disney Parks, Experiences and Products Chairman Josh D’Amaro, and ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro, as well as a number of other executives. We appreciated the breadth of content and detail on the DPEP business, and agree that there is a long runway going forward.

On the stock, we have found investors mostly on the sidelines this year as the company works to define its strategic future, but like shares at this level and expect in the next six to 12 months that major questions around Hulu, an ESPN investment, and a linear sale (or not) will be answered, which should give investors more confidence in long-term value creation at the company.

While Iger did not address the pending resumption of the dividend directly, his closing comments seemed to imply that there is still room for shareholder returns even under a heavier capital-expenditure investment level.

We remain Overweight with a $125 target, though we recognize it could take a couple of quarters before we have better clarity into the company’s direction and shares begin to work."

https://www.marketwatch.com/article...50-j-p-morgan-says-9b1be7ee?mod=mw_latestnews

 

[RivShore]

JP Morgan giving DIS some signs of life.

Walt Disney • DIS-NYSE
Overweight • Price $82.56 on Sept. 21
by J.P. Morgan

"Walt Disney hosted a parks-focused analyst meeting at Walt Disney World, where speakers included CEO Bob Iger, Disney Parks, Experiences and Products Chairman Josh D’Amaro, and ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro, as well as a number of other executives. We appreciated the breadth of content and detail on the DPEP business, and agree that there is a long runway going forward.

On the stock, we have found investors mostly on the sidelines this year as the company works to define its strategic future, but like shares at this level and expect in the next six to 12 months that major questions around Hulu, an ESPN investment, and a linear sale (or not) will be answered, which should give investors more confidence in long-term value creation at the company.

While Iger did not address the pending resumption of the dividend directly, his closing comments seemed to imply that there is still room for shareholder returns even under a heavier capital-expenditure investment level.

We remain Overweight with a $125 target, though we recognize it could take a couple of quarters before we have better clarity into the company’s direction and shares begin to work."

https://www.marketwatch.com/article...50-j-p-morgan-says-9b1be7ee?mod=mw_latestnews

Is this the full report? If so, it's interesting that there was no real mention of DTC moving to profitability in it. Seems like the narritive has changed on it already.

 

[New Mouse]

Agree to disagree. You can both have your pet causes, and not engage is stupid fights also.

They never should have made that cringy hostage video with Chapek about the parental rights in education bill. That was foolish if you want all customers to continue to believe you aren’t choosing sides. No one cares if Disney wants to support its employees and their lifestyles. What they do care about is engaging in divisive nonsense, that was completely avoidable. Don’t alienate any of your customers, it’s that simple.

If you don't have employees you don't have a business.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

If you don't have employees you don't have a business.

It sounds like some of the employees that pushed the most for Chapek to make that statement are now gone. And many employees didn’t agree with it.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

If you don't have employees you don't have a business.

If you listen to a very small subset of your employees that complain the loudest, you may make decisions that hurt your overall business. The employment of all employees and the overall health of your business must be considered in these matters. I just feel there was a way to support your employees without starting a legal and twitter fight with the governor. Call me crazy, but I just feel there was a better way of handling this than suing the governor. A case Disney will end up dropping or losing most likely.

 

[OKW Lover]

It sounds like some of the employees that pushed the most for Chapek to make that statement are now gone. And many employees didn’t agree with it.

I look at it as new employees have arrived since then because he made the statement. And most employees do agree with it.

Two sides.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

And most employees do agree with it.

How do you know that?

 

[wabbott]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/09/23/disney-stock-turnaround-closer-than-you-think/

A Disney Stock Turnaround Could Be Closer Than You Think
By Jeremy Bowman–Sep 23, 2023 at 7:25AM EDT

Key Points​

Disney is exploring a sale of its linear TV assets, including ABC.

Bob Iger's plan to bring storytelling back to the center of the business seems to be coming into focus.

With the stock at a nine-year low, good news like an asset sale could help spark a turnaround.

A sale of ABC and other legacy media assets could help the company reposition itself.

Seasoned investors know that Walt Disney (DIS -1.79%) is more than just the theme parks and content associated with the Disney brand name. The entertainment conglomerate also owns Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, ESPN, ABC, Hulu, and a slew of cable networks, including those it gained from Fox in its 2018 deal.

For years, ABC was a core component of Disney's media empire. In fiscal 2019, its broadcasting division brought in $8.3 billion in revenue and $1.35 billion in segment-operating income, about 9% of its total segment-operating income that year.

Now, with profits from its linear TV ecosystem drying up, and the company in a hurry to turn a profit from streaming, Disney seems to be preparing to sell ABC and other legacy-media assets, including several local TV affiliates.

In an interview back in July, CEO Bob Iger said that TV and cable assets, including ABC, "may not be core" to the business, and earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that Disney had held "exploratory talks" with Nexstar Media Group, a local TV broadcaster, about selling the ABC network and its TV stations.

Other parties also seem to be interested in acquiring ABC. Media mogul Byron Allen has held discussions with Disney as well, reportedly making a $10 billion bid for ABC along with FX and National Geographic cable channels.

Disney has stressed that the talks are preliminary and that it may not sell ABC or any of the related assets.

Let's make a deal

There's no doubt that Disney is facing a wide range of challenges in its media and entertainment. The traditional pay-TV ecosystem is shrinking, and the company is still reporting wide losses from streaming, though those have narrowed in recent quarters. Disney has also promised to launch a streaming version of its flagship ESPN network, but that may not even come until 2025.

The entertainment giant now has roughly $47 billion in debt on its books, and it added substantial borrowings when it acquired Fox's entertainment assets in 2018. An asset sale would help the company pay down some of that debt and free up cash to invest in the parts of the business that are central to its growth.

The company just said that it would nearly double its capital expenditures in its parks division over the next 10 years to $60 billion. Increasing spending on streaming doesn't seem to be a priority when the company is trying to flip the direct-to-consumer business from a loss to a profit, but taking the flagship ESPN network over the top is likely to require some capital spending as well as an initial marketing push. Additionally, Disney aims to buy the remaining third of Hulu it doesn't own from Comcast next year, which will cost at least $9 billion.

Disney's next steps​

Reading between the lines of Iger's comments, Disney seems eager to sell off its linear TV assets, at least for the right price.

When he returned to the helm at Disney, Iger promised to put storytelling at the center of the business again, and it's clear that ABC, which contains a sizable news organization, doesn't fit in with his concept of storytelling, which is why he's deemed it "non-core."

When Iger talks about storytelling, he is referring to the branded intellectual property that he spent his years as CEO assembling, acquiring Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, and Fox's entertainment assets. The prioritizing of storytelling is also why the company is doubling its spending on the parks, and it leaned into that relationship in the announcement, teasing theme park worlds based on Frozen or Black Panther.

Selling off ABC and the related assets seems like a fitting coda for Iger's career as doing so would free up cash for the company and allow it to focus on the streaming business, eliminating a distraction that sometimes competes with its direct-to-consumer goals as we saw with the dispute with Charter Communications.

Taking the flagship ESPN to streaming is a natural part of that process, and that could mark a windfall for the company as cord-cutters right now have few good options for watching sports.

A turnaround might not be far away

Disney stock popped about 1% when Bloomberg first reported the talks with Nexstar, a sign investors would view an ABC sale favorably.

Though there's a palpable frustration with the losses in the streaming division, the company is aiming for profitability in the direct-to-consumer segment by next fiscal year, and the round of price hikes coming in October should help move the company significantly closer to that goal.

By this time next year, Disney may be in a much stronger position than it is currently. We could see it strengthen its balance sheet after selling ABC and other non-core broadcast and cable assets. The flagship ESPN channel could be available to cord-cutters. Disney will likely fully own Hulu as it's allowed to buy out the 33% stake that Comcast currently owns next year, and its streaming division should be profitable by then.

If Disney can deliver on those goals, much of the pessimism that's now baked into the stock and has pushed it to a nine-year low will have evaporated.

The company will have emerged from the streaming transition with several popular options, shed its declining legacy media assets, and be able to present itself to investors as a business clearly focused on growth in streaming and in the complementary parks business.

The bottom line could take a short-term hit as it loses profits from linear TV, but that will be well worth the trade-off to present a faster-growing company built around storytelling, as Iger promised.

Keep your eye out for any news around the ABC deal. That could be the first step in the long-awaited turnaround for Disney stock as it reinvents itself under Iger once again.

 

[clarker99]

JP Morgan giving DIS some signs of life.

Walt Disney • DIS-NYSE
Overweight • Price $82.56 on Sept. 21
by J.P. Morgan

"Walt Disney hosted a parks-focused analyst meeting at Walt Disney World, where speakers included CEO Bob Iger, Disney Parks, Experiences and Products Chairman Josh D’Amaro, and ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro, as well as a number of other executives. We appreciated the breadth of content and detail on the DPEP business, and agree that there is a long runway going forward.

On the stock, we have found investors mostly on the sidelines this year as the company works to define its strategic future, but like shares at this level and expect in the next six to 12 months that major questions around Hulu, an ESPN investment, and a linear sale (or not) will be answered, which should give investors more confidence in long-term value creation at the company.

While Iger did not address the pending resumption of the dividend directly, his closing comments seemed to imply that there is still room for shareholder returns even under a heavier capital-expenditure investment level.

We remain Overweight with a $125 target, though we recognize it could take a couple of quarters before we have better clarity into the company’s direction and shares begin to work."

https://www.marketwatch.com/article...50-j-p-morgan-says-9b1be7ee?mod=mw_latestnews

Even if you are not bullish on $DIS they will have went from a FY22 $4B loss in DTC to posting positive operating income by no later than Q2FY24. We are talking a $4B-$5B turnaround by the end of FY24 for DTC. This takes a lot of pressure off the declines of Linear.

 

[irlandaise]

Call me crazy, but I just feel there was a better way of handling this than suing the governor.

Suing DeSantis was the proper way to respond to him using the power of his office to punish a company for its speech. He's belligerent (probably partly by nature, but I suspect ramped up for perceived political gain) and wasn't about to unwind CFTOD if Disney just asked nicely.