DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

I just made the mistake of looking at how Warner Discovery is doing since I received shares from the AT&T split in April - down more than 30%, even much worse than Disney over that time. Fun times in this market

 

[wabbott]

Here's a bit of opinion discussion on streaming vs theater, with a mention of DIS.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-valuations-streaming-stocks-imax-ceo-162440262.html

IMAX CEO: 'I am not at all surprised' by crashing streaming stocks​

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Just a guess, but I think the lack of shows at HS is killing them. It leaves a good chunk of people “on the street” that would otherwise be seated for a good hour multiple times a day

When I was there, Indiana Jones and Beauty and the Beast had recently opened up. Little Mermaid is still closed, and of course some of the other theatres are closed looking for a new attraction (The old sound stage, the one behind Launch Bay, etc). Also, I do not know what was in the frozen one - is that back? I never go to it. Dining is a problem still - they have removed tables from some of the places and I think those are not at full capacity.

But TBH I feel that when they took out Lights, Camera, Action and the Backlot tour, and put in TS Land and Galaxy's Edge, the park is more popular than it can handle. It's never really been able to handle it's capacity since then (although that's a hard judge because COVID hit before it got it's breeze)

2) end of franchises and box office revenues. Disney chose to end the most popular phase of avengers, new Star Wars Movies, and the Cars and Toy Story franchises in the last 4 years. That has an impact. What’s in the pipeline? Avatar. Historically an international blockbuster. That should help. But enough?

Marvel is not dead. They ended a phase, but are going into a new phase. Coming up will be X-Men, Fantastic Four, and a host of less explored Marvel characters. Personally, if they bring back Wolverine.... I might forgive them.

Star Wars is not dead. They have supposedly been working on a new 3 movies series (It's stopped and started so many times, I can't keep track). The new streaming series sound interesting and those can turn into movies. I think there is a lot of life there.

Indiana Jones is IP they can potentially do a lot with.

They have a TON of Fox IP that can be re-birthed. I would love to see Disney to something with the Alien franchise. They have Planet of the Apes, Dragon Ball, Die Hard, Ice Age, Kingsman (just to name a few). Now that movie theatres are running again, this will return along with a lot of potential growth.

5) anecdotally I have heard from several people who normally go to Disney every year or several times a year - G+ and “crowds” are keeping them away… for now. And they aren’t recommending it to first time visitors.

6) G+ doesn’t work at this price point. It is frustrating guests and sending a bad message.

7) the negative effects of G+ will not be seen immediately. I wish I could see the data of 2019 visitors vs 2022 vs 2023. things like first time vs repeat, overall spend, where from, length of stay, etc.

G+ is a new technology that will EVENTUALLY (if it works) make things better. But it needs a lot of tweaking to get there. I have confidence it will get those tweaks. PERSONALLY as someone who goes multiple times a year, the high crowds are turning me away from the parks more than G+. It's just that G+ isn't HELPING to deal with the crowds. For the first time in over 10 years we are talking about cutting one of our bi-yearly trips.

8) I’m frustrated that the current political issues will obscure the real guest experience issues that are happening with ride downtime, G+ Stress, park hopping restrictions, etc.

YES, YES, YES. I still hold that I do not think this political sparing fight is going to help them to win any customers. How bad it is will be impossible to measure with so many headwinds against Disney right now.

Not saying the current political situation is good for their stock - but it’s far from the only problem that Disney is facing right now.

It's very likely we are in a recession. I believe one of their biggest headwinds is that the Parks are not going to be a healthy business during a recession. DCL will not be a healthy business during a recession. Disney as a brand is entirely OPTIONAL. They do not have any of their business which feeds essentials (they do not make food, or supplies). Yes - you can argue that we need SOME kind of entertainment or we will go crazy, but when you are counting pennies, Disney is going to suffer. As a brand, Disney is just not well positioned for a recession. That's not to say they won't survive.... they have through other recessions. Just that they are not poised to be able to take advantage of one as some other companies are.

They will eventually recover and I believe grow again. But it will take some time.

• Tech innovations have made the theme park experience and operations smoother for guests and cast members.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. AAAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA. <Snort> <Cough> HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Thank you. I needed that laugh.

 

[BrianL]

Marvel is not dead.

Doctor Strange just opened to a meager $450M weekend - clearly Marvel is totally dead!

 

[wabbott]

Here's what CNBC'S Jim Cramer had to say this morning. I'm no fan of his, IMO, he's little more than a noisy frontrunner that apparently hasn't crossed the line. Yet. Some folks must listen to what he says, or they wouldn't keep him on the air.

https://invezz.com/news/2022/05/09/cramer-explains-why-he-loaded-up-on-disney-ahead-of-earnings/

Cramer explains why he loaded up on Disney ahead of earnings​

"I think people are missing the fact that it’s not a two-legged stool. It’s not just theme parks and ESPN. It has the movie division. They make movies and people go to them, $400 million worth. So, I’m a buyer right here."

 

[wabbott]

Some more news on the public returning to movie theaters.

https://deadline.com/2022/05/amc-entertainment-earnings-first-quarter-adam-aron-1235019820/

AMC Entertainment Q1 Sales Surge, Losses Narrow; Adam Aron Says “When Hollywood Releases Films Moviegoers Want To See, People Flock To Cinemas”​

 

[RivShore]

Can it at least save itself first....

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

Can Disney Save the Market on Wednesday?​

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Can it at least save itself first....

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

Can Disney Save the Market on Wednesday?​

I think that they will have strong earnings, driven primarily by the parks. Subs will probably slow, but still be net positive around 3Mil new subs for Dis+. I would say they get a nice bump through potentially the rest of the week, and then the market will take the wheel again

 

[RivShore]

Stop making sense...

Vivek Ramaswamy breaks down ESG alternative fund ‘Strive’​

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/05/...ative-fund-strive-backed-by-thiel-ackman.html

 

[wabbott]

More on DIS' movie prospects for the year.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

Disney Has an Ace in The Hole for 2022, and It's Not What You Think
By Daniel Foelber - May 10, 2022 at 11:07AM

Key Points

Disney stock has been crushed over the last few months -- even worse than the broader market.
Disney+ is suffering collateral damage from negative sentiment toward Netflix.
Wall Street may be underestimating a rebound in Disney’s movie business this year.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Hard to think there won't be a big pop for earnings even just as a relief rally/short covering event. But also fail to see how it doesn't get sold off again too. The market is in bad shape and CPI data tomorrow could destroy this before it ever gets started. Let's see what's baked in and what's not. Gl if holding.

 

[wabbott]

Here is a Barron's article out this morning that has some substance to it.

https://www.shareandstocks.com/disney-earnings-are-coming-wall-street-is-expecting-bad-news/

Disney Earnings Are Coming. Wall Street Is Expecting Bad News.

Disney’s subscriber metrics will be in focus on Wednesday, when it reports results for the first three months of 2022—the company’s fiscal second quarter. On average, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to end the period with about 135.1 million subscribers, up by about 5.3 million. But there’s little agreement among analysts, with estimates ranging from growth of 2 million to more than 8 million. That would compare with growth of 11.7 million in Disney’s fiscal first quarter.

Disney is scheduled to report results for its fiscal first quarter, which corresponds to the calendar fourth quarter, on Wednesday after the market closes. Management will host a call with analysts at 4:30 p.m. ET.

 

[RivShore]

Yet another reason to have kept things quiet...

https://nypost.com/2022/05/11/josh-hawley-wants-to-strip-disney-of-copyright-to-mickey-mouse/

 

[BrianL]

Yet another reason to have kept things quiet...

https://nypost.com/2022/05/11/josh-hawley-wants-to-strip-disney-of-copyright-to-mickey-mouse/

In this case, the copyright protection is not special to Disney, though Disney is one of the companies that has lobbied for copyright extension. This is something that is going to happen eventually, and Disney would still own related trademarks, etc. it's just that some of their oldest cartoons would go into the public domain. This is not Disney specific though.

 

[HokieRaven5]

In this case, the copyright protection is not special to Disney, though Disney is one of the companies that has lobbied for copyright extension. This is something that is going to happen eventually, and Disney would still own related trademarks, etc. it's just that some of their oldest cartoons would go into the public domain. This is not Disney specific though.

That and I don’t think Disney is going to reapply to protect the copyright on Steamboat Willie, so this is kind of moot.

 

[BrianL]

That and I don’t think Disney is going to reapply to protect the copyright on Steamboat Willie, so this is kind of moot.

It's all just posturing really. It wouldn't even be that big of a deal if they lose the copyright, and this was going to happen eventually. Persoanlly, I do think that copyright extensions for still in-use IP is reasonable, but I do see the point of the public domain as well.

 

[RivShore]

This is a complicated mess but it just adds another headline to the bad press lately...

Disney allegedly has cheated hundreds of writers out of pay for Star Wars and other properties​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-disney-allegedly-cheated-hundreds-130008971.html

 

[RivShore]

And some better news...

Disney Bulls Stay Put Even After Netflix Streaming Slump​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-bulls-stay-put-even-110909820.html

 

[RivShore]

A busy day for news. No surprise with this dismissal, as the judge said, it is too early to know the impact.

Florida Suit Against DeSantis Over Disney Fight Is Thrown Out​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-suit-against-desantis-over-140349237.html

 

[wabbott]

DIS really moving up after hours trading