DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

that many have been turned off by the brand and perhaps we will see these effects sooner or later. Or perhaps it all really is a nothing burger.

The question is how many is "many" - yes, it's many on the boards and social media but as i said in my tiny sliver post, that truly is a very small segment of the potential worldwide Disney consuming public. It seems like everyone when we spend all our time in our own interweb echo chamber, but the real world (or what's left of it before Meta makes it all virtual, all the time), not so much.

 

[RivShore]

Disney's erosion is a very different graph...

it was holding steady right up until November. In fact as recently as October, they were anticipated to hit $200.

This was when the Netflix effect started, Netflix peaked in mid-Nov and has been trending down ever since. DIS just rode the sympathy wave with it.

 

[RivShore]

IMO the way Disney has been treating their guests has a lot more to do with the pushback then the political stuff.

Yep, and both things happening at the same time just amplifies everything.

 

[RivShore]

Seaworld reported best attendance in 9 years...

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...e-highest-attendance-since-2013-company-says/

 

[SuzErwin]

Last thread I gave plenty of direct comparisons to blue chip stocks which I think is really what you have to compare Disney to. But if others want to compare it to some other peer group go right ahead. In my OPINION (even though it is technically backed up by numbers), that Disney stock has been a laggard and a poor LONG TERM HOLD when compared to many other stocks that one could've bought years ago (insert time range x here). But we can all cherry pick I guess so there are I'm sure plenty of examples where you can say it has done better than so and so...like Enron. Ok Ok I had to sorry...

Disney was an outperfomer in 2019. Shoulda sold if outpacing the market is the only criteria. And probably shouldn’t be in the entertainment sector. There are far more predictable industries in which to invest. *shrug*

Also, Disney is pretty much a buy right now and considered to be overweighted. Analysts aren’t throwing in the towel.

For a thread purporting to be only about Disney stock news, there’s an awful lot of misformation flying around.

And the recent silence seems to indicate perhaps the message has been received...just run your business without spreading your business.

I believe Disney is currently following the “don‘t wrestle with a pig in mud. You get dirty and the pig enjoys it” edict.

Also, a lawsuit over Reedy Creek were recently filed (and maybe Disney knew it was coming). The wisest course of action when lawsuits are involved is for all parties to stay quiet for fear of influencing the outcome.

It's fairly new news. People are not largely going to go and cancel their currently paid for and funded trips over news that happened recently. Likewise, streaming services are paid for some time in advance the question is whether they renew.

All I can say for certain is that leaders of people - church ministers, elected representatives, even hollywood right now is irritated with Disney. These are the people who tend to be influencers. If you do not believe that will hit their bottom line - that people who need to make cuts to their budgets will not choose Disney over something that is more in line with the entertainment they trust and/or will choose to spend their vacation dollars bringing their family to places they believe will be fun for them over someplace they do not trust in, then as I said, there is no convincing the person standing in a puddle that water is wet if they are bound and determined not to face reality.

A) Influencers are on both sides of the aisle.
B) Some people do spend in accordance with their values. For example, my family cancelled an upcoming 10-day stay at the Contemporary Resort in theme park view club level over the holidays in favor of spending the same amount at Disneyland. Whether the number of wallet voters — especially when the number of protest boycotters is probably matched by the number of protest spenders — is large enough to make a difference in a company’s bottom line is doubtful, however. Especially a bottom line as big and diversified as Disney’s, where their single largest source of revenue is TV affiliate fees. Nike laughed all the way to the bank when they were the target of one-sided protests.
C) One people’s puddle of opinion is another person’s desert of reality these days *shrug*

November 2021..... hmmmm.. why does that date sound familiar to me? What happened around November.

What happened around November 2021?

Omicron was detected in the US, which caused great uncertainty in the travel/hospitality business.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

This was when the Netflix effect started, Netflix peaked in mid-Nov and has been trending down ever since. DIS just rode the sympathy wave with it.

I think there are some other factors that played out during that time period, but I do believe that is definitely a piece of it

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Seaworld reported best attendance in 9 years...

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...e-highest-attendance-since-2013-company-says/

That should spell good news for Disney as well

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Disney was an outperfomer in 2019. Shoulda sold if outpacing the market is the only criteria. And probably shouldn’t be in the entertainment sector. There are far more predictable industries in which to invest. *shrug*

Also, Disney is pretty much a buy right now and considered to be overweighted. Analysts aren’t throwing in the towel.

For a thread purporting to be only about Disney stock news, there’s an awful lot of misformation flying around.



Don’t know if you’ve noticed, but lawsuits over Reedy Creek were recently filed (and I’m sure Disney knew they were coming). The wisest course of action when lawsuits are involved is for all parties to stay quiet for fear of including the outcome.





A) Influencers are on both sides of the aisle.
B) Some people do spend in accordance with their values. For example, my family cancelled an upcoming 10-day stay at the Contemporary Resort in theme park view club level over the holidays in favor of spending the same amount at Disneyland. Whether the number of wallet voters — especially when the number of protest boycotters is probably matched by the number of protest spenders — is large enough to make a difference in a company’s bottom line is doubtful, however. Especially a bottom line as big and diversified as Disney’s, where their single largest source of revenue is TV affiliate fees. Keurig and Nike laughed all the way to the bank when they were the target of one-sided protests.
C) One people’s puddle of opinion is another person’s desert of reality *shrug*



What happened around November 2021?

Omicron was detected in the US, which caused great uncertainty in the travel/hospitality business.

I agree with pretty much all of this. the only thing i have of note is that Nov 21' for Dis had plenty of issues for the market, the world, and themselves, that all added up to a sizeable drop in stock pricing.

I think that people assert their opinions on these boards which tend to cloud what can tangibly be quantified, I would suggest not investing in Disney to these people because they cannot separate their feelings which makes for a dangerous investment strategy

 

[RivShore]

I think there are some other factors that played out during that time period, but I do believe that is definitely a piece of it

Yes, there is more than one thing that plays into everything that we have discussed here lately. We all want yes/no, black.white answers to everything but the realty is lots of grey.

 

[RivShore]

That should spell good news for Disney as well

The US parks segment (and maybe Paris) should have blowout earnings and attendance this year - with the slim way they are running right now - employees/entertainment/menus all at a minimum, profit margin should be very high. It will make next year's comps very difficult as they get back to something close to normal. But then again, maybe the international parks will pick up the slack.

The WDW parks have been unbelievably busy, it's been tough to get a park reservation on random mid-week days the last few months. We've had to get on a wait list to visit the DVC lounge multiple times lately, even mid-week late morning. There has been no slow time at all for the last 6 months.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

The US parks segment (and maybe Paris) should have blowout earnings and attendance this year - with the slim way they are running right now - employees/entertainment/menus all at a minimum, profit margin should be very high. It will make next year's comps very difficult as they get back to something close to normal. But then again, maybe the international parks will pick up the slack.

The WDW parks have been unbelievably busy, it's been tough to get a park reservation on random mid-week days the last few months. We've had to get on a wait list to visit the DVC lounge multiple times lately, even mid-week late morning. There has been no slow time at all for the last 6 months.

I've noticed the same, we were thinking of going this year, but the way it's being reported they sound like they're New Years Eve Y2K busy daily. So we are waiting until next year, and crossing our fingers that the crowds die down a bit

 

[Jrb1979]

I've noticed the same, we were thinking of going this year, but the way it's being reported they sound like they're New Years Eve Y2K busy daily. So we are waiting until next year, and crossing our fingers that the crowds die down a bit

Personally I think all amusement/theme parks will be busy this summer. I know it's anecdotal but this is the first time I can remember not being able to book a room at the Cedar Point hotel for week before Memorial Day weekend.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Personally I think all amusement/theme parks will be busy this summer. I know it's anecdotal but this is the first time I can remember not being able to book a room at the Cedar Point hotel for week before Memorial Day weekend.

I don't disagree, my feeling is that most Americans are either worried about travelling to Europe currently, or don't want to deal with the Covid hassle traveling abroad, so potentially a lot of travel inside the country coupled with pent up demand from the last 2 years.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I've noticed the same, we were thinking of going this year, but the way it's being reported they sound like they're New Years Eve Y2K busy daily. So we are waiting until next year, and crossing our fingers that the crowds die down a bit

The parks are insane. And that's coming from an apologist. I was a little surprised at how little we accomplished at HS. Epcot we fared MUCH better with the only exception being Remy (an ILL helped there). Soarin was reasonable and the rest of EPCOT was.... like always.

But HS.... WOW... We did TSMM and Olga's Indiana Jones and..... um.... um.... Well, lets see... I think we ate at Rizzo's. And Oh we... no, actually - that was about it. We only stayed until 4ish - we just were not getting anything done. But we were there at opening. I mean it was PACKED - and that was mid-Fed at the usual sweet spot before Spring Break.

MK was busy, but reasonable. I think we did everything we wanted to. it was just a little more packed than usual. To be honest, G+ was actually helpful in MK and served us well.

We are back in October and Feb next year and brining some guests. I am really hoping it drops a bit before then - I want them to have a great time. We will see how it goes. I am expecting busy again. <shrug> I was hoping that after the pandemic we might approach he good ol days again of a reasonable crowd level,. but as others mentioned, I think the lack of international travel, the pent up demand to go on vacation, and Disney running on short staff is all driving the crowds to insane levels.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

The parks are insane. And that's coming from an apologist. I was a little surprised at how little we accomplished at HS. Epcot we fared MUCH better with the only exception being Remy (an ILL helped there). Soarin was reasonable and the rest of EPCOT was.... like always.

But HS.... WOW... We did TSMM and Olga's Indiana Jones and..... um.... um.... Well, lets see... I think we ate at Rizzo's. And Oh we... no, actually - that was about it. We only stayed until 4ish - we just were not getting anything done. But we were there at opening. I mean it was PACKED - and that was mid-Fed at the usual sweet spot before Spring Break.

MK was busy, but reasonable. I think we did everything we wanted to. it was just a little more packed than usual. To be honest, G+ was actually helpful in MK and served us well.

We are back in October and Feb next year and brining some guests. I am really hoping it drops a bit before then - I want them to have a great time. We will see how it goes. I am expecting busy again. <shrug> I was hoping that after the pandemic we might approach he good ol days again of a reasonable crowd level,. but as others mentioned, I think the lack of international travel, the pent up demand to go on vacation, and Disney running on short staff is all driving the crowds to insane levels.

Just a guess, but I think the lack of shows at HS is killing them. It leaves a good chunk of people “on the street” that would otherwise be seated for a good hour multiple times a day

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I wonder if we can agree that now is a good time to be buying stocks? The market as a whole is down significantly. It may even go lower. But at some point its going to recover and if you are investing for the long run it pays off to buy low.

Now the decision as to which stock to buy now (DIS or something else) is something that we will probably not all agree with.

In my opinion this is a time of great volatility as presented by the elevated VIX within a very solidly bear market which really is only suitable for trading. At BEST if you have cash burning a hole in your pocket perhaps start dollar cost averaging here. However we're no doubt entering/already are in the beginnings of a recession. Inflation cannot be controlled by a few interest rate raises here and there. It's like a cruise ship you cant just turn it on a dime. It takes time to right any large ship especially one as large as the world economy...because let's be real the American economy IS the world economy. I honestly don't see how buying equities at this point for a long hold is the move to make. Also this is not financial advice it is my opinion please feel free to purchase whatever you'd like. Although I'm currently not selling and am holding my positions (including Disney) I don't see how we don't drift lower in the coming months and year or two. Don't forget the V recovery right after the Covid crash was because the government pumped money into everyone's bank accounts and suddenly staying home kids and adults of all ages found this new gambling game called the stock market. Well...not only has the stimulus dried up a long time ago but now money is worth less and cost of living has shot up exponentially even in the last few months. This is going to be more akin to 08-09. There was no instant recovery. We bottomed and the rise back up was slow. I'm also willing to miss a few points on the way back up when the bear market finally subsides and wait for confirmation rather than trying to time the bottom and going all in here and seeing another 10, 15, 20% loss in the near future.

As for Disney if somehow we see a retest of the 85ish mark I'm tripling my position but besides that there are many other great stocks that will be/are on sale. I'll take Google with the split coming up soon. Amazon keeps falling and is going to split. I love Disney but I want to maximize profits when playing this game and for me personally I don't see Disney as the horse to be on in this race. I hope I see it back at my average price sometime soon but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Figment1990]

I’ve been watching this thread (and others for a bit now), I am a shareholder who bought DIS in 2008. Im sitting pretty on a big gain but not much to show for recent times. Not thrilled about the lack of dividend but accepted it for a while. However.

There are a lot of factors to consider on whether to buy or continue to hold DIS. I haven’t done all the research yet but need to do an in-depth review to see if it’s time to “take some profits” because in the near term I think there are other stocks that could earn a better return. The question I ask as a stockholder who is no longer receiving dividends is - where will the growth come from?

Here are some factors I haven’t seen discussed lately that I think have an impact on the stock performance or that we should at least be looking at in terms of business success:

1) conversion of hotel rooms to DVC rooms. DVC could be considered similar to “subscribers” as they are committed to annual dues. Likewise, the affect that conversion has had on pricing power of resort rooms at WDW resorts and necessity to deliver higher than expected service. I would love to see data on how many dvc rooms built/sold etc during each year and future projections as well as a graph of the hotel room prices and available quantity of them.

2) end of franchises and box office revenues. Disney chose to end the most popular phase of avengers, new Star Wars Movies, and the Cars and Toy Story franchises in the last 4 years. That has an impact. What’s in the pipeline? Avatar. Historically an international blockbuster. That should help. But enough?

3) aforementioned franchises connection to consumer products.

4) D+ is just not the same as Netflix. It’s much more similar to all the other streaming service. However, D+ pulled forward most subscribers in the pandemic and while they will probably keep most, where is the growth going to come from? I think they have a captive audience for the young family set. But their other shows are not quite hitting the mark.

5) anecdotally I have heard from several people who normally go to Disney every year or several times a year - G+ and “crowds” are keeping them away… for now. And they aren’t recommending it to first time visitors.

6) G+ doesn’t work at this price point. It is frustrating guests and sending a bad message.

7) the negative effects of G+ will not be seen immediately. I wish I could see the data of 2019 visitors vs 2022 vs 2023. things like first time vs repeat, overall spend, where from, length of stay, etc.

8) I’m frustrated that the current political issues will obscure the real guest experience issues that are happening with ride downtime, G+ Stress, park hopping restrictions, etc.

9) international travel and cruise travel is having impact on Disney and other theme park and domestic travel still.

10) “long wait times” and “feels crowded” and “park reservation availability” and “resort availability” does not necessarily correlate to high attendance. I wish we could see actual attendance figures. Wait times and room availability can be affected by supply availability, park pass manipulation, etc.

11) Disneyland was shut down for nearly a year (or more). Theaters were shut down for a long long time too. Live sports was shut down. Filming of tv and movies stopped. That’s a lot of ground for Disney to make up which impacts stock prices.

12) for the last 30 years, DIS was growing by building parks domestically and internationally, buying TV networks, building out the cruise line, DVC, adventures by Disney, and deals with Pixar, marvel and Star Wars, Fox. It is now a very mature company. Right now, I am not going to pay high multiples like I would for an early stage growth company. the interest rate hike could have workEd in their favor if they were healthy enough to be still paying a dividend. i Would prefer them to grow revenue by adding new revenue streams instead of breaking apart what they have (which they started pre-pandemic with the increase in after hours parties and early morning paid events) and raising prices, but I don’t see that changing any time soon.

Not saying the current political situation is good for their stock - but it’s far from the only problem that Disney is facing right now.

 

[OKW Lover]

1) conversion of hotel rooms to DVC rooms. DVC could be considered similar to “subscribers” as they are committed to annual dues. Likewise, the affect that conversion has had on pricing power of resort rooms at WDW resorts and necessity to deliver higher than expected service. I would love to see data on how many dvc rooms built/sold etc during each year and future projections as well as a graph of the hotel room prices and available quantity of them.

I'm not sure exactly what the impact is of converting hotel rooms to DVC. I understood that a DVC sale is recognized as income in the year it happens and that annual dues will only cover the cost of operation of those units without a profit. Perhaps I'm incorrect about that.

As far as the data about the # built/sold historically, that's probably available through a records search. But the projections and graph are probably not available as they would be considered proprietary info.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I'm not sure exactly what the impact is of converting hotel rooms to DVC. I understood that a DVC sale is recognized as income in the year it happens and that annual dues will only cover the cost of operation of those units without a profit. Perhaps I'm incorrect about that.

As far as the data about the # built/sold historically, that's probably available through a records search. But the projections and graph are probably not available as they would be considered proprietary info.

The DVC conversion to me, means one of two things. 1. They can’t sell enough deluxe rooms, so they are recouping where they can, or 2. There is such a high demand for DVC right now that they are converting to take on more clientele. Assuming that demand for DVC ebbs and flows, Disney may be striking while the irons hot. I haven’t dug in enough to make up my mind one way or the other, but I would lean towards taking the profits they get from DVC upfront, and then go build another “Riviera” for everyone else

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The DVC conversion to me, means one of two things. 1. They can’t sell enough deluxe rooms, so they are recouping where they can, or 2. There is such a high demand for DVC right now that they are converting to take on more clientele. Assuming that demand for DVC ebbs and flows, Disney may be striking while the irons hot. I haven’t dug in enough to make up my mind one way or the other, but I would lean towards taking the profits they get from DVC upfront, and then go build another “Riviera” for everyone else

I think you're circling the right ideas but piecing them together wrong. Demand for cash rooms ebbs and flows a lot more than demand for DVC does.