DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[Jrb1979]

I think the discounts have more to do with the end of revenge travel, not with guest happiness.

That's what I'm saying. They only ever put out discounts if bookings are soft. It's not put out to please guests or throw them a bone.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

That's what I'm saying. They only ever put out discounts if bookings are soft. It's not put out to please guests or throw them a bone.

Yeah, I should have said "agreed." I was following up with the revenge travel detail.

I'll also add that discounts are normal and come and go throughout the year. What was not normal was to not have much in the way of discounts in the past couple of years; they were milking the pent up demand.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Yeah, I should have said "agreed." I was following up with the revenge travel detail.

I'll also add that discounts are normal and come and go throughout the year. What was not normal was to not have much in the way of discounts in the past couple of years; they were milking the pent up demand.

That’s what I’m getting at, they’re just going back to kind of how they normally operated pre-Covid in terms of offering discounts even when they had their parks at peak attendance. It’s not that unusual for them as a company in their history.

“Worried” to me would be guests starting to get close to what the Cast Members get in the 40-50% off room rates with regularity. Otherwise it’s just business as usual for Disney.

 

[wabbott]

This guy writes a lot about DIS, fwiw.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/10/disney-doesnt-really-need-to-bring-back-its-divide/

Disney Doesn't Really Need to Bring Back Its Dividend
By Rick Munarriz – Feb 10, 2023 at 11:15AM

Disney said this week that it will be resuming its semiannual distributions later this calendar year.

CEO Bob Iger is trying to restore things to how they were before he left in early 2020, but a likely low yield isn't going to impress in today's high-rate climate.

Announcing the return of distributions in the same earnings call as a layoffs announcement isn't a good look.


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Price as of February 10, 2023, 11:11 a.m. ET

The media giant is bringing back its payouts after a four-year absence. It's not necessary.

One of the bigger surprises out of Walt Disney's (DIS -2.16%) well-received fiscal first-quarter earnings call was that it would be bringing back its dividend by the end of this calendar year. The media giant suspended its payouts in early 2020, bracing for the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

The last cash distribution came near the end of 2019, so the dividend drought will have lasted four years when Disney resumes the return of money to its investors. It may seem like a good thing. Nature is healing. It's a return to normalcy.
But this doesn't really have to happen. Let's go over some of the reasons why Disney starting to cut shareholder checks isn't necessary right now.

Shares of Disney are down 25% since its last distribution went out on Dec. 13, 2019. It's not the lack of a dividend that has held the stock back. Disney was the worst performer on the Dow in 2021 because growth was slowing at Disney+.

It was near the bottom again in 2022 because losses were mounting for the namesake streaming service.

Bringing back the payouts doesn't change the reasons for the stock's decline. Disney+ still posted an operating loss of nearly $1.1 billion in its latest quarter. Its flagship linear networks face a bumpy near-term outlook with cord-cutting remaining strong and the advertising market taking a hit. We're also on the precipice of a global recession. If Disney suspended its stakeholder disbursements to save the company ahead of the pandemic's financial calamity, won't it happen again if the economy falters in the next year or so?

Let's also talk about the poor optics here. Disney announced that it's bringing back its dividend at the same time that it revealed it would be laying off 7,000 employees. The pink slips will make up a small part of the $5.5 billion in annual savings that Disney is hoping to achieve, but it's the newsy nugget that resonated the loudest with headline crafters and social media pundits.

Plus, the dividend itself will be largely irrelevant for investors. Based on today's depressed share price, the former dividend rate translates to a 1.6% yield. Disney mentioned during Wednesday's earnings call that the new distribution would be the same if not lower. Think about that. Back in 2019 a 1.6% yield seemed pretty good with money market rates hovering well below that. These days the best funds are shelling out more than 4% without the stock market risk.

Disney resuming its semiannual distributions should help it get back on the radars of institutional investors with dividend requirements. I get that. It's just not going to sway retail income investors who have far safer ways to generate a lot more interest yield right now.

There will be some fanfare as Disney returns to the ranks of the best blue chip dividend stocks. Some will argue that it shouldn't have taken this long. Disney has been profitable since fiscal 2021. It's just not the same. There are some storm clouds on the horizon, and a 1.6% yield -- or likely less -- isn't going to turn heads in 2023.

 

[Brian Noble]

“Worried” to me would be guests starting to get close to what the Cast Members get in the 40-50% off room rates with regularity. Otherwise it’s just business as usual for Disney.

Or the buy-four-get-three deal they had in the depths of the Great Recession.
https://www.mouseketrips.com/walt-disney-world-buy-4-get-3-free/

 

[MartyParty]

My guess is the activist investor was pushing for dividends on his multi billion shares. Called off the proxy war with dividends being reinstated.

 

[clarker99]

They don't offer discounts for the sake of offering them. They only offer them if bookings are soft.

They literally have some type of discount all the time.

 

[clarker99]

Or the buy-four-get-three deal they had in the depths of the Great Recession.
https://www.mouseketrips.com/walt-disney-world-buy-4-get-3-free/

This is what Universal does all the time for tickets. Buy 2 days get 2 days free or something and I don't think they are soft on bookings. With Epic Universe, I am guessing they will up the offer even more to try and drive people to visit USF and IoA. Buy 2 days for any park and get 4 free to USF/IoA/VB. They can't have all the passholders and visitors at Epic. They will need some creativity to move the crowds around.

 

[Brian Noble]

Tickets are less of a big deal than hotel rooms. Ticket prices are front-loaded (and Disney tickets certainly were in '09; this was after MYW was introduced). In other words, the first few days cost a lot, but as you keep adding the days get progressively less expensive. Universal did a 2+2 promo that ends just before Orange County spring break (or maybe P-week, I forget). They are doing a 3+2 promo for the rest of the year, but again--front loading makes that less interesting than it seems.

Hotel rooms, on the other hand...

 

[clarker99]

Tickets are less of a big deal than hotel rooms. Ticket prices are front-loaded (and Disney tickets certainly were in '09; this was after MYW was introduced). In other words, the first few days cost a lot, but as you keep adding the days get progressively less expensive. Universal did a 2+2 promo that ends just before Orange County spring break (or maybe P-week, I forget). They are doing a 3+2 promo for the rest of the year, but again--front loading makes that less interesting than it seems.

Hotel rooms, on the other hand...

It isn't rocket science to figure out but these ticket promos show that Universal get an average of about 2.5 days from guests on a trip. I wonder if Epic will significantly increase that or people will just try and cram it all in over 3-days.

EDIT: I would like to think I could go without visiting USF but Daigon Alley is so damn good that I don't think I could skip it.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

It isn't rocket science to figure out but these ticket promos show that Universal get an average of about 2.5 days from guests on a trip. I wonder if Epic will significantly increase that or people will just try and cram it all in over 3-days.

EDIT: I would like to think I could go without visiting USF but Daigon Alley is so damn good that I don't think I could skip it.

On the years when we've done UO we do 1.5 days. Staying at a deluxe resort for arrival night and then we get express passes for check in and check out days. Thanks to that we can do everything in a day and repeat what we like most in the half day. I know lots of people who do the same. On the boat to the parks from Portofino we've met lots of folks who had the same plan lol.

EU may change that and we might do 2 nights. Or we just do EU one trip and the other two parks the next.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/peltz-s...-than--150-million-in-three-months-71960.html

Peltz's Disney Bet Makes More Than $150 Million In Three Months
February 10, 2023
Christopher Palmeri, Liana Baker

While Nelson Peltz has called his push for changes at Walt Disney Co. a victory for all shareholders, it’s so far certainly a win for the 80-year-old activist investor himself.

Peltz’s Trian Partners has made a paper profit of about $154 million on the stake he built in the entertainment giant, based on where Disney’s stock is trading Friday, according to people familiar with the investment and Bloomberg calculations.

At Disney’s intraday high on Thursday, after Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger announced a major restructuring aimed at saving the company $5.5 billion, Peltz’s stake was briefly worth as much as $250 million.

Trian paid an average price of just under $92 apiece for its 9.4 million shares, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information.

After a months-long campaign to win a board seat at Disney — fought both behind doors and in public — Peltz said on Thursday that he was abandoning his proxy fight after Iger committed to many of the changes he had pushed for. Iger has said Disney will cut 7,000 jobs as part of the restructuring, and will consider restoring the company’s dividend later this year after it was suspended early in the pandemic. The company’s annual meeting will be held April 3.

Trian’s proxy filing shows that the firm bought large numbers of shares in early November, when the stock traded as low as $86.28. Two big trades in December were done at $95.59 per share and $95.16. Disney’s stock is up almost 25% over the past three months.

In addition to the potential return on his investment, Peltz will likely have saved millions of dollars more by calling off the proxy fight. On Jan 31., Trian said in a filing that its campaign to win a board seat for Peltz could cost as much as $25 million. As of that date, it had spent just $1.6 million soliciting proxies.

 

[New Mouse]

Disney has ‘long way to go’ to rebuild theme park reputation: Expert​

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/disney-long-way-rebuild-theme-164101274.html

This guy must be a poster here LOL. The parks are full almost all the time and yet they have a long way to go? If that were true, wouldn't it show up in attendance numbers? Not to say it won't happen in the future but to say it while business is still very good seems a bit clickbaity.

Attendance numbers are down.

 

[RivShore]

Attendance numbers are down.

Where's the details?

And down vs. what? Revenge travel or pre-covid travel?

I know it is just one data point but we are at a park or Springs almost weekly and Jan & Feb have felt busier than those months in prior years.

 

[Mexacajun]

Where's the details?

And down vs. what? Revenge travel or pre-covid travel?

I know it is just one data point but we are at a park or Springs almost weekly and Jan & Feb have felt busier than those months in prior years.

I thought the opposite. We were there from Jan 5-14 and thought it was quite light. Didn’t get genie+ at all and did everything. Including at one point a 40 min wait for rise.

 

[New Mouse]

Where's the details?

And down vs. what? Revenge travel or pre-covid travel?

I know it is just one data point but we are at a park or Springs almost weekly and Jan & Feb have felt busier than those months in prior years.

Yes, it does feel busier. The parks are and resorts are still not offering the full experience they used to which leads to crowding. It's down vs. Pre covid travel.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Yes, it does feel busier. The parks are and resorts are still not offering the full experience they used to which leads to crowding. It's down vs. Pre covid travel.

That’s also a completely different operational approach. Pre-Covid Disney was 100% capacity with come on in everybody and fill the parks to the gills.

Post-Covid Disney is operating on attendance caps (which also helps control staffing needs) with the mindset on an increase in per guest spending.

In the short term, that newer strategy is paying dividends as the parks are more profitable than ever. Long term, we’ll see.

 

[clarker99]

I thought the opposite. We were there from Jan 5-14 and thought it was quite light. Didn’t get genie+ at all and did everything. Including at one point a 40 min wait for rise.

I was there the exact same days and was definitely not light. Lol. RunDisney and Christmas crowds hung around. I expected it to drop off signicantly the Monday after the marathon but it didnt. 10 nights gives you plenty of time to do what you want but to say it was light is not what I felt. The 1st day of festival of the arts both Hollywood Studios and Epcot were jam packed.

We were also down for 8 nights in October and it was less busy than our Jan stay.

 

[clarker99]

Where's the details?

And down vs. what? Revenge travel or pre-covid travel?

I know it is just one data point but we are at a park or Springs almost weekly and Jan & Feb have felt busier than those months in prior years.

I couldnt believe how busy Disney Springs was. Lol.

Been to Disneyland x 3 (bw Aug ’21 and April ‘22) and WDW x 2 (Oct ‘22 and Jan ‘23). Every trip felt like normal/pre-covid. If crowds are down, I will take Disney’s word on it but most days it felt busy.

 

[Mexacajun]

I was there the exact same days and was definitely not light. Lol. RunDisney and Christmas crowds hung around. I expected it to drop off signicantly the Monday after the marathon but it didnt. 10 nights gives you plenty of time to do what you want but to say it was light is not what I felt. The 1st day of festival of the arts both Hollywood Studios and Epcot were jam packed.

We were also down for 8 nights in October and it was less busy than our Jan stay.

Maybe it was expectations. I thought it would be packed and I found that it was really manageable and I never felt overcrowded at all. Of course it wasn’t empty but I thought it was light compared my trips in that time frame in the past. The crowds definitely thinned greatly after the marathon. That Friday at the festival was pretty packed in Epcot. I will def agree there.