DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

why do we see so many stories about Apple possibly buying Disney.

It keeps coming up because of the long history between Disney and Jobs/Apple. The Pixar transaction, Disney being one of the first media companies jumping in on the iPod, even recently Disney shared the stage with Apple during Apple's VR headset introduction. And most of all Iger said in his book that if Jobs were still around there could have been serious talk of a merger. And Iger has more recently said there's no way it would happen now but that was also before the stock dropped to decade lows and might look like a bargain to a big tech company.

 

[HokieRaven5]

It keeps coming up because of the long history between Disney and Jobs/Apple. The Pixar transaction, Disney being one of the first media companies jumping in on the iPod, even recently Disney shared the stage with Apple during Apple's VR headset introduction. And most of all Iger said in his book that if Jobs were still around there could have been serious talk of a merger. And Iger has more recently said there's no way it would happen now but that was also before the stock dropped to decade lows and might look like a bargain to a big tech company.

Plus, it gets clicks….

 

[RivShore]

Plus, it gets clicks….

You know, I accually meant to add that to my post - both Apple and Disney will get clicks, put them both in the same headline, and its like hitting the lottery. LOL

 

[wabbott]

https://www.thewrap.com/sony-executive-ravi-ahuja-peak-tv-over-interview/

Sony Exec Ravi Ahuja Says End of Peak TV Will ‘Be Painful for Most Companies’ | Video

TheGrill 2023: The global television studios and development chairman also shares his “surprise” reaction to Disney’s purchase of Fox Entertainment during his tenure there

Jose Alejandro Bastidas
October 4, 2023 @ 2:09 PM PDT


Sony’s chairman of global TV studios Ravi Ahuja warned that the end of the peak TV era will likely “be painful for most companies,” as cost-cutting measures across the industry leads to less shows and money spent on marketing.

Ahuja, who also manages corporate development, said that while he hopes the big media companies are done with layoffs after this year’s staff reduction efforts, he predicts the changing streaming business model will find media power players cutting back on content production and promotion over the next two years.

“You’ll see a little bit of the air coming out of the balloon,” Ahuja told TheWrap’s editor-in-chief Sharon Waxman during a spotlight conversation at TheGrill, the publication’s annual business conference, on Wednesday. “The portfolio shows may shift a bit [too], away from the big subscriber-acquiring swings to more shows like [Sony-produced] ‘The Night Agent.’”

Peak TV — a term originated by FX Networks chairman John Landgraf in 2015 — refers to the rise in production of TV series as streamers, cable and broadcast networks aimed to build up their libraries with content for every taste. Landgraf said earlier this year that the Peak TV era reached its peak in 2022 with 599 shows produced across the board.

Hollywood’s current strike-enforced work stoppage, recent en masse cancellations and purging of content at platforms like Netflix, Max and Paramount+ show a clear slowdown in original content production as the companies work to please Wall Street in their desire to expand profitability in the streaming sector.

Ahuja — who worked as CFO of the Fox Networks Group before becoming president of business operations and CFO of Walt Disney Television — also recalled his surprise at the companies’ 2019 merger.

“We didn’t think the Murdochs were going to sell but they did,” he said, crediting the desire to compete with Netflix and the launch of Disney+ as reasons for the decision. “One thing about Rupert is he sees around corners and I think he felt that: compete or don’t.”

As for the future of Fox after Rupert Murdoch’s retirement, Ahuja speculated on whether a sale could be in the company’s future. “The prevailing thought is that at some point it gets sold, but I could see it either way,” he said. “I could see it re-merged with News Corp.”

The spotlight conversation also touched on Sony Pictures Entertainment possibly being acquired, which Ahuja said is not on the horizon for the company at this time.

“If I were sitting at Apple I would say I’d love to buy Sony, but as far as I know we’re not for sale,” Ahuja told Waxman.
On the topic of synergy, Ahuja praised “progress” within Sony with the success of collaborative efforts with PlayStation on adapting IP like “The Last of Us” and “Uncharted.” He also teased an upcoming collaboration in the works with Sony Music, but wouldn’t provide specifics on the project.

When it comes to the company’s strategy to create shows for other platforms, Ahuja added there are no plans to reinvent the approach as streaming production cutbacks loom.


“It’s a little harder to get a show over the finish line [now],” he said. “We hope we don’t get to a point where we have a show that we love and can’t find a home for it. Our bet really is [focusing on] getting the execution right and having the creative excellence, and we’ll be fine.”

Ahuja added that Sony Pictures Entertainment studios has operated as an “arms dealer business” by design, after realizing that adding one more streaming platform to an already saturated market wouldn’t benefit the company in the long run.

“We make 200 shows in our studios business — scripted, unscripted, kids, games shows — we make a whole host of shows for others,” he said. “It’s served us very well to be focused… The clarity of focus allows us to deploy resources in a way we think is very efficient and creatively excellent.”

As for what comes next in the future of the streaming landscape, Ahuja said that bundling — which is already starting to take place at companies like Disney — will become prevalent in the coming years, starting with the smaller streaming platforms.

“We’re going to see bundling by platforms — by Amazon, by YouTube, by Apple, by Roku — across competing companies,” he said. “That’s already started too… it’s a more customer-friendly, efficient way.”

“If you look at television around the world, there’s always a bundle of some sort,” he continued. “It’s not all individual, a la carte services. There’ll be a lot of value in putting together the experience for customers.”

 

[jade1]

Projects already in motion include redesigning Splash Mountain at both domestic resorts with a “Princess and the Frog” theme, as well as updates to existing hotel and resort locations.

Quite the list indeed.

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-said-talks-adani-sun-093020055.html

Disney Said to Be in Talks With Adani, Sun TV to Sell India Assets
P R Sanjai and Preeti Singh
Fri, October 6, 2023 at 4:30 AM CDT

(Bloomberg) -- Walt Disney Co. is holding preliminary discussions with potential buyers for its India streaming and television business including billionaires Gautam Adani and Kalanithi Maran, according to people familiar with the matter.

The US entertainment giant’s senior executives have also gauged the interest of private equity funds considering the company is exploring a range of options, which could involve selling part of the Indian operations or a combination of the unit’s assets including sports rights and regional streaming service Disney+ Hotstar, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private.

Asset-sale talks have already been held with Reliance Industries Ltd., controlled by Asia’s richest person, Mukesh Ambani, Bloomberg News reported earlier on.

Disney has been weighing strategic options for its business in India including an outright sale or setting up a joint venture, Bloomberg News reported in July after the unit lost its streaming rights to the Indian Premier League cricket tournament to Viacom18 Media Pvt. Viacom is a joint venture between Reliance, Paramount Global and Uday Shankar’s investment firm Bodhi Tree Systems.

A potential acquisition could complement Maran’s broadcasting company, Sun TV Network Ltd., while for the Adani Group, it could help expand its newly acquired New Delhi Television Ltd., the people said. They added that deliberations are still at a very preliminary stage and any deal may not happen.

Representatives for Disney in India declined to comment. Sun TV Network Group Chief financial Officer S L Narayanan said the group doesn’t comment on market rumours or speculation. A spokesperson for Adani also said they wouldn’t comment on market speculation.

The discussions around the sale of Disney’s India unit show how the market dynamics have been disrupted ever since Ambani’s conglomerate scooped up the streaming rights to the Indian Premier League for $2.7 billion and chose to broadcast it for free earlier this year. Ambani scored another win by bagging a multi-year pact to broadcast Warner Bros Discovery Inc.’s HBO and other content that was previously with Disney.

Disney is now using Reliance’s playbook and streaming the ongoing Cricket World Cup in India for free — a move aimed at clawing back some subscribers even if it means sacrificing revenue in the cricket-crazy nation of 1.4 billion people.

Disney, however, is likely getting a boost as marquee global brands line up to tap India’s massive consumer base, with advertising slots being sold at $3,600 a second. Disney Star, which holds the exclusive TV broadcast rights for the event in India, said in a statement Wednesday that it’s partnering with 26 sponsors, including heavyweights like Booking.com BV and liquor company Diageo Plc.

Cricket is by far the most popular sport in the South Asia nation and attracts more than $1.5 billion in sponsorship and media spending every year, according to research from Jefferies LLC, or about 85% of all sports-related spending in the country.

Even as Disney Star has battled sliding subscriber numbers after losing the streaming rights to the Indian Premier League, the media group hasn’t ceded the entire cricket business, securing the television rights through 2027.
Last year, Disney Star agreed to license the TV rights for International Cricket Council men’s matches to ZEE Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. for four years, with Disney+ Hotstar retaining the digital rights.

 

[hertamaniac]

It has been stated by Disney execs more than once so it is not fake news. I would expect to hear more about it at the next earnings call in November. If it is reinstated, I would expect it to be a token amount to start.

They could also decide to wait another few quarters with the excuse that the strikes, continuing inflation, the Hulu purchase, etc, etc all creating new uncertainty.

I think they're going to push the dividend payout rock down the road and use the current economic climate as justification.

 

[wabbott]

Interesting that DIS has shown strength this week while all the rest of the market has been down.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD

81.55+0.74 (+0.92%)
As of 10:17AM EDT. Market open.

 

[hertamaniac]

I've been in accumulation mode since <$83. I think it will hover in this region regardless of macro-economic news (i.e., today's job report). But, yes, it is a climber over the past several days while many other of my tourism-based stocks have been red.

 

[RivShore]

Interesting that DIS has shown strength this week while all the rest of the market has been down.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD

81.55+0.74 (+0.92%)
As of 10:17AM EDT. Market open.

Maybe it has found a solid floor in the high 70's?

 

[wabbott]

Maybe it has found a solid floor in the high 70's?

The pundits would use the term "oversold." Markets never, every do anything in a straight line. Fear and greed, two very powerful human emotions that afflict us for all of our lives.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...unt-netflix-warner-bros-discovery-1235610930/

Wall Street Firm Picks Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery Among Hollywood Stocks

Sanford C. Bernstein reinitiated coverage of the media and telcom sector, giving Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery "outperform" ratings and handing out an "underperform" on Paramount Global.

by George Szalai
October 6, 2023 7:41am PDT

A notable Wall Street private securities and investment research firm, Sanford C. Bernstein, re-initiated coverage of seven media and telecom stocks on Oct. 5, notably weighing in on the stock price targets for major Hollywood studio conglomerates.

Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon kicked off Walt Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery with “outperform” ratings and $103 and $13 stock price targets, respectively, but put an “underperform” on Paramount Global with an $11 price target. The expert put “market-perform” ratings on four other stocks, namely Netflix (with a stock price target of $375), Fox Corp. ($32), Comcast ($46), and Charter Communications ($463).

Yoon outlined key sector themes affecting stocks. “SVOD, initially a cheap complement to pay TV, became (a) cheap and compelling alternative and drove cord cutting which continues without an end in sight,” he wrote. “(The) linear monetization model is in a free fall, and media companies can’t raise affiliate fees fast enough to offset subscriber decline.

He then explained four core investment themes that shape his team’s perspective on key stocks. First, the decline of linear TV and the transition to streaming are “well-established narratives,” the Bernstein analyst noted. “Future growth and profitability are about outpacing linear decline with direct-to-consumer (DTC) growth and having scale for profitability.” That plays into Bernstein’s rating on Disney and Paramount.

Second, Yoon argued that the “industry structure is unsustainable, and consolidation overhang will persist.” While there are likely interested buyers and sellers, “interest rates and depressed valuations make deals more challenging near-term — but never say never,” he offered, mentioning Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount as stocks affected by this.

Third, de-levering alone is “insufficient,” the expert said. “It must be complemented with underlying fundamentals to drive cash flow growth,” again mentioning WBD and Paramount as companies whose stock will be impacted.

Finally, cable subscriber growth as a narrative “is over,” Yoon highlighted about Comcast and Charter. “Pricing and packaging drive value but once lofty pricing assumptions are challenged by intensifying competition. However, there’s ample cash flow to keep the stock afloat and interesting.”

Here is a closer look at Bernstein’s take on several key stocks.

Disney – Bernstein’s $103 target price implies upside of 29 percent. “The only credible challenger to Netflix. Oh, plus Parks,” Yoon wrote on Disney. “Despite our bearish view on linear versus consensus, we are bullish on Disney’s potential to transition to DTC at scale once combined with Hulu.” He forecasts that streaming growth will outpace the linear decline, with streaming surpassing linear revenue in 2024 and “Disney becoming the undisputed #2 SVOD.” The analyst’s take on Hulu: “Disney has more to gain with full control of the asset, and (a) favorable resolution of the deal (with Comcast) will likely lift a modest overhang on the stock.”

Warner Bros. Discovery – Bernstein’s $13 target price implies upside of 29 percent. “It’s not growth. It’s just cheap for what it is,” Yoon outlined his analysis of WBD. Its roughly 80 percent exposure to legacy businesses and his bearish view on its linear trends “don’t bode well for WBD’s core fundamental outlook,” he explained. However, the expert forecasts the conglomerate will “generate sufficient cash flow to substantially de-lever,” plus it trades at the lowest enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) multiple among its peers. “Alternatively, we believe WBD’s assets are its hedge as WBD is one of two targets in the sector that could move the needle for any player looking to consolidate,” Yoon highlighted.

Paramount – Bernstein’s $11 target price implies downside of 5 percent. “It’s not pretty and looking for a savior,” Yoon summarized his take on the stock. “Paramount is facing a triple whammy — 1. linear decline, 2. sub-scale DTC, and 3. a poor balance sheet.” About the company’s market value, the analyst said: “We believe Paramount’s premium multiple today reflects a substantial embedded change of control premium, and we are less optimistic on the marketability of its assets, especially relative to WBD.” His conclusion: “Though we don’t believe a deal is imminent, any news around such an event could make short-term trading volatile and is a risk to our ‘underperform’ rating.”

Netflix – Bernstein’s $375 target price implies downside of 1 percent. “Good company. Good stock?” That is what Yoon sees as the key Netflix question for investors. “Netflix is clearly the undisputed SVOD leader and firing on all cylinders driving sub and (average revenue per member) ARM growth and expanding margins,” he wrote. “We are below consensus on subscriber growth, especially in international markets, but offset by a more positive view on ARM growth, based not only on price hikes but also AVOD growth. We are also below on EBITDA margins versus consensus.” His takeaway: “The good news is that Netflix now closely resembles a utility in many markets, giving it status as a long, durable service. The challenge of being labeled a utility, of course, is how a maturing company continues finding growth. We see plenty of opportunities, though conclude that expectations are likely ahead of the reality.”

 

[wabbott]

https://www.newsday.com/entertainment/tv/abc-cbs-nbc-fox-network-tv-streaming-m2hfipcp​

Network TV blues: Will ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox survive?​

By Verne Gayverne.gay@newsday.com@vernejgay - October 5, 2023 5:06 pm

Once they were called "The Big Three" until Fox came along, then "The Big Four." They commanded hundreds of millions of viewers, shaped the culture, drove the marketplace of ideas, or at least drove the marketplace of commercials.

Household names, we knew them only by their letters, but that was enough. "Dynasty" was on ABC, "Dallas" on CBS and "Seinfeld" on NBC. They each had their "appointment shows" and "event series" and "very special episodes." Even through decades of inexorable decline brought on by cable, DVRs, and the internet, the Big Four remained. They were diminished, sure, but still formidable.

That seemed to end overnight because it was overnight. First, there was the pandemic production shutdown (March-June, 2020). And between November 2019 (the launch of Disney+) and March 2021 (Paramount+) four major streaming services launched, joining the already established Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and Prime Video. Then, the writers and actors strike began (May and July, respectively). In aggregate, they all delivered what may well be the knockout punch.

The Big Four have now been relegated to second-class citizenship, as "linear broadcasters" in what's called an "OTT" — "Over-the-Top" — world, where people vault over the top of broadcast TV to watch what they want when they want it.
With the Writers Guild strike officially over, the networks have reached another one of those dreaded "inflection points" that periodically seem to crop up every 10 or 15 years, going back to at least 1985 when The Big Three got new owners who gutted news divisions and slashed payrolls.

This particular inflection looks much worse than any that came before. The networks' owners have diverted resources to their new streaming services, while Disney may unload ABC altogether to fund its purchase of Hulu (Disney currently shares ownership with Comcast). This means that even after Hollywood production starts up again, they have a dwindling chance of doing what they once did so reliably over their entire history — create and air those big hits that got everyone watching and talking.

During a June interview with CNBC's David Faber, Disney CEO (and Oceanside native) Bob Iger said, "The [network broadcast] distribution model that has delivered great profits for us over the years is definitely broken."

The numbers alone would appear to bear him out. Millions of people are still watching, but they're much older (60 on average, for ABC, CBS and NBC) and they're vanishing. This past July, broadcast's share of what Nielsen calls "total TV usage" fell to 20% of the total, an historic low-water mark. By contrast, nearly 40% — or double — the total share of viewing went to the streamers.

Here's another problem — the writers' strike (which ended late last month) and the ongoing actors' strike came at the worst possible moment for the networks because it reinforced a growing impression among even their most devoted viewers that there's nothing much on anyway, other than repeats or game shows, both of which have filled network schedules over these past five months.

Jeffrey Cole, director of the Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg — who has spent decades advising broadcasters and governments about "disruptive" technologies — told me recently that while both "strikes are almost over for all intents and purposes, has anyone under the age of 70 noticed that scripted shows on the networks are not back? The answer is largely no."

Meanwhile, the cable industry's own mounting woes are hurting the networks, too. According to MoffettNathanson, an investor research firm, 26,000 households a day cut their cable cords during the first three months of this year. That's also a record and growing.

Fewer people watching cable means fewer people watching the networks, or as HBO chief Casey Bloys clarified during an industry conference the day the writers' strike ended, “It’s an uncertain time, it’s a scary time. There’s a lot changing so it’s not business as usual.”

After the actors' strike is settled, and when those big Dick Wolf franchise series like "FBI," "Law & Order" and "Chicago" or modest successes like CBS' "Fire Country" and ABC's "Abbott Elementary" return, their fans will start to take notice. But are The Big Four irrevocably broken? After decades of sky-is-falling proclamations by experts, analysts (and reporters, too), has that sky finally fallen?

In a word, are those once-mighty Big Four networks doomed?

I spoke with a handful of former network executives (some of whom requested anonymity) and other industry observers who offered some perspective. No one thinks the networks will simply disappear, like supernovas fading to black in the night sky. Moreover, while the challenges are profound and the future clouded, there are some silver linings. They are faint, to be sure, but they're there.
Here, then, are six major questions facing the networks, along with some of those silver linings.

How big an impact did the strikes have on the networks?​

Check your local channel guide for clues — "Buddy Games," "The Golden Bachelor," "The Challenge: USA," "Celebrity Jeopardy!," "Celebrity Wheel of Fortune," "The $100,000 Pyramid," "Dancing with the Stars," "FBI True," "The Masked Singer," "Raid the Cage," "Kitchen Nightmares," "Snake Oil" . . . If they don't have a working actor, or Writers Guild member, the networks have thrown them on to the wall to see what sticks. (The late-night shows had all been on ice, too, but returned the week of Oct. 2.)

Nevertheless, strike or no strike, the unscripted invasion of prime-time would have continued anyway. In fact, more than half of prime-time is now unscripted and would have been regardless — a sharp reversal from just five years ago. There won't be a single new scripted series on ABC this fall, which has never happened before. The so-called "Peak TV era," which crested last year with some 600 scripted series, essentially bypassed the four major linear networks. Cost and viewer habits are the reasons.

And so, ironically, the strikes haven't hurt the networks in prime-time as much as they would have back when their schedules actually had lots of scripted series. Before the strikes began, NBC even managed to bank some of those — original episodes of shows like "Quantum Leap" and "Magnum P.I" (NBC also has a pair of original series — "The Irrational" and "Found.") (Fox's Sunday night animated lineup was unaffected because animators are represented by a different union.) The networks' collective cherry on top? They still have NFL football.

Will NFL football save the networks?​

Network owners Paramount Global (CBS), Fox Corp., Comcast (NBC) and Disney (ABC) are now in the first year of a reported $110 billion NFL contract that runs through 2033. This alone would seem to ensure that their TV networks will still be around until then, too, if only because football is far and away the most important source of programming for them. Yet there are some intriguing unknowns. Amazon now has the rights to the Thursday night package. What if — hypothetically speaking — Comcast was to sell NBC? Might it seek to keep some games for its streaming service Peacock? If ABC is sold, as now seems likely, does it get to keep the Monday night games it shares with ESPN, or the two Super Bowls (2026, 2030) they both will air? Could (hypothetically) a Super Bowl someday end up on a streaming service?

Meanwhile, here's the known known: Without the NFL, the linear networks would almost certainly not survive. Football is that important. Yes, it may be a matter of time (10 years?) before an Apple TV+ or Prime (or YouTube) ends up with a number of live telecasts. It's unlikely, I'm told, they'll end up with all of them. Assuming they're still around, the networks (and ESPN) should continue to be NFL-dominant.

Could the streaming services save the networks?​

Last year, the giant entertainment research firm, Parrot Analytics, offered the persuasively counterintuitive argument that the streaming services have actually helped the networks the past few years. "Broadcast’s supposed demise remains more of a splashy narrative than concrete law," according to a 2022 company analysis, because "15 of the 100" most popular series on the streaming services originated on network TV.
Anyone who spends time with a streamer knows he or she can (and usually will) catch up with a favorite network show a day, week or month later. Paramount Global, Comcast and Disney stream their network broadcast shows on their respective streamers all the time (Disney is majority owner of Hulu) for that reason: It helps build their own audiences while exposing expensive shows to more people who wouldn't be caught dead watching a linear network. It's a symbiotic relationship that's obviously served both well and should continue to.

Nevertheless, the big streamers are suffering growing pains of their own. A 2022 Deloitte study found that the average "churn rate" of the major streaming-video-on-demand providers (SVOD) was 37%. Subscriber growth has stalled due to what's called "streamflation" (higher costs for each and lots more commercials). Profits are elusive, and catalogs have been slashed. (Disney+, second largest after Netflix, has told investors it'll be profitable late next year, maybe.)

A shakeout is now considered likely, which means that one of the big streamers could conceivably fold before one of The Big Four ever does. That wouldn't be good for ABC, CBS, Fox or NBC, either.

Could the networks be sold, spun off or merge?​

There are three paths forward for the networks. Each could be sold to another broadcaster, like the smaller CW Network was to Nexstar last October — that also now appears to be ABC's fate. They can be spun off to fend for themselves as stand-alone services. Or, they can merge with their streaming partners. There are already real-world examples of the merger play, like "CBS on Paramount +" or "FX on Hulu."

None of the options are ideal because if ABC is sold, for example, the new owner might lop off expensive operations, like news or late night, while a similar fate might await the others. If spun off, they are left to face a cold cruel world on their own — a world, incidentally, that is no longer inclined to watch network TV. And if merged, they stand to lose the pot of money they still get from their affiliates.

Nevertheless, the networks have been sold before and survived just fine. ABC's TV assets are widely assumed to be worth anywhere from $8 to $10 million — yes, real money, while billionaire media mogul-entrepreneur Byron Allen has reportedly already offered to hand over a check to Disney for the larger amount. Could Allen know something Iger doesn't?

What about all those affiliates? How could they save the networks?​

CBS, ABC, Fox and NBC have 904 TV stations that air their shows. Most of these so-called affiliates (some are also owned by their corporate parents) pay them two fees for the privilege — compensation and a share of the money they get from cable operators who pay to carry them. This is a huge multibillion dollar business that funded the networks' recent NFL splurge. It's also not going away, at least any time soon. The stations pay all this money because they need the networks — yes, even with some of their lousy reality shows. Besides, it's still cheaper than buying stuff to fill their own schedules. This alone may ensure the networks' survival for the time being, or even over the long term.

Will the networks ever create hits again?​

The networks' corporate parents have now placed all their bets along with expensive new shows, like Paramount +'s "Frasier" spinoff, on their streamers. With fewer resources, fewer viewers and fewer scripted shows, how can they get those epic hits that once defined their whole reason for being? The answer is that they probably can't. There could always be surprises, and on the networks, there once reliably were. For example, did anyone really expect "This Is Us" to turn into a monster hit (the Feb. 4, 2018, episode was seen by 27 million viewers)? But that show launched back in the last decade (2016) and there hasn't been anything close ever since. By contrast, the ABC hit "Abbott Elementary" averaged just under 2.8 million "same day" viewers last season, then added another 6.5 million via streaming on average after a month.

But here might be what may be one of the most intriguing silver linings, or what former NBC and Fox scheduling executive Preston Beckman calls a "long tail." As is well-established, there are lots of network and cable series that get a second wind, or second life, on a streaming network — a reverb effect that catapults a show into the stratosphere with billions of "viewed minutes." The best-known current example is USA's "Suits" (2011-2019), which collected over 20 billion over the summer on Netflix. Beckman says such shows have potentially "long tails" and there may be dozens of them — "Shows like 'Yellowstone' [which] was on the [cable] Paramount Network but it did pretty damn well on CBS," when repeats started airing last month. Who knows? Might ABC's recent under-the-radar "The Company You Keep" be a potential long-tailer? Or NBC's less-under-the-radar "Superstore"?

In the future, Beckman says, lots of series might perform modestly during their "first run" on the networks, then explode in popularity when they start streaming. The networks, in other words, won't necessarily know if they have one of those massive, culture-defining hits until months, or even years, later. Could they one day even save the networks? Probably not on their own (only football will do that) but in a crisis of this magnitude, every little bit helps.

Verne Gay is Newsday's TV writer and critic. He has covered the media business for more than 30 years.

 

[Jwaire]

Apple?
Seriously, why do we see so many stories about Apple possibly buying Disney. But where are the stories about Apple being interested in buying other entertainment companies?

Wishful thinking by people who don't understand Apple. Their largest acquisition was Beats, around $3 billion, and they only bought it for the clout and people (Iovine and Dre).

 

[wabbott]

https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/disney-nelson-peltz-iger-board-trian-1235748916/

Oct 8, 2023 8:56pm PDT
Activist Investor Nelson Peltz Plans Renewed Push for Board Seats at Disney: Report
by William Earl

Activist investor Nelson Peltz has amassed a $2.5 billion stake in Walt Disney Co. and is preparing to make a second run at pressuring the company to grant him with board seats, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is responding to the steady slide in Disney shares, which are down about 16% for the year to date. In January, Trian unleashed a targeted campaign to criticize Disney’s corporate management and recent under-performance of the stock. Peltz pushed to have himself added to the Disney board.

But by Feb. 9, Trian had reached a detente with Disney, which at the time was re-adjusting to the return of Bob Iger as CEO in November 2022, which followed a rocky nearly three-year tenure for Bob Chapek. Peltz withdrew his bid for the board seat after Disney unveiled a broad restructuring of operations and made other commitments to streamline company operations. Iger in July floated the trial balloon of possibly selling ABC and other linear TV assets , and it’s no secret the company has been considering partnership options for ESPN.

Peltz’s decision to revive his campaign comes after he has steadily increased his stake in Disney in recent months, according to WSJ. Disney, like other media giants, has struggled with the accelerated transition from linear to streaming platforms that have up-ended how studios make money from content. The industry has also endured a rough summer of dual strikes by the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA.

In January, Trian took aim in its investor materials at Disney’s operational and strategic thinking, as well as “over the top” compensation practices and not enough cost discipline around new streaming businesses. Peltz also faulted Disney for its failed succession process and for “overpaying” for 21st Century Fox in 2019.

Representatives for Disney and Trian did not immediately respond to requests for comment late Sunday.

Disney shares closed Friday at $82.94, which was up nearly 3%. In January, shares traded in the $110-$113 range.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...stake-seeks-board-seats-at-disney/ar-AA1hTFm1

Nelson Peltz Boosts Stake, Seeks Board Seats at Disney
Story by Lauren Thomas, Robbie Whelan
10/8/23

Nelson Peltz is planning a fresh push for board seats at Disney following a relentless slide in the entertainment giant’s shares.

The activist investor’s Trian Fund Management, now one of Disney’s largest investors with a stake worth upward of $2.5 billion, is expected to request multiple seats—including one for Peltz, according to people familiar with the matter.

If the company says no, Trian could nominate directors that would be voted on at Disney’s annual meeting next spring. The window for shareholder nominations runs from Dec. 5 through Jan. 4, according to Disney’s proxy materials.

Peltz launched a run for a seat on Disney’s board earlier this year after the company privately rebuffed his request to become a director. It was a short-lived battle, however, with Peltz withdrawing his nomination in February after Disney unveiled a broad reorganization and cost-cutting plan that sent the stock up briefly.

Since then, Disney shares have tumbled from higher than $113 to around $80, brushing up against their lowest level in a decade. In early 2021, after Disney notched several quarters of meteoric growth in sign-ups to its flagship Disney+ streaming service, its shares traded at around $200.

Disney has lately been grappling with Hollywood strikes that froze television and film production, a high-profile battle over fees with large cable operator Charter Communications and the prospect of sustained losses in its TV and streaming businesses.

Trian thinks that Disney shares are significantly undervalued today and that the company needs a board that is more focused, aligned with shareholders and accountable, people familiar with the matter said.

Trian has built up its stake in recent months to more than 30 million shares, a significant jump from the roughly 6.4 million shares it held at the end of the second quarter.

Trian, an influential activist investor co-founded by Peltz, had in its first fight been pushing Disney to plan for a successor to Chief Executive Bob Iger, who had held that role since 2005 before passing the reins to Bob Chapek in 2020. Last year, just as Peltz was kicking off his campaign, Chapek was fired by the board and Iger was brought back. Iger recently agreed to stay in his position through 2026.

Trian also argued that Disney had excessive compensation and lacked expense discipline.

Disney at the time said it continually refreshes its board, with a focus on directors with industry experience, and argued that Peltz didn’t understand the media industry. The company also launched a succession-planning committee to advise on Iger’s replacement.

When Peltz called off his fight with Disney in February, he told The Wall Street Journal that Iger needed to execute on his promises.

Iger has been taking steps to reverse the stock decline, some geared toward achieving profitability for Disney’s streaming segment by September of next year, a target set forth in late 2020. In August, the company unveiled a round of major price increases for its streaming products, raising the cost of the ad-free versions of Disney+ and Hulu by more than 20% each.

The company has also said recently that a plan to restore its cash dividend by the end of 2023 was on track. The payout was eliminated during the Covid-19 pandemic.

And Disney last month vowed to spend about $60 billion to expand its theme parks, cruise lines and resorts over the next decade, almost doubling its investment in a division that provides its primary source of profits.

In July, Iger said that Disney’s traditional cable and network television assets, which include ABC, sports network ESPN, FX, the Disney Channel and others, “may not be core,” indicating that the networks might be for sale. He said that ESPN would seek an investment from a strategic partner.

Two months later, Disney announced that it was partnering with gambling company Penn Entertainment to launch ESPN Bet, a sports-wagering app. Neither move caused more than a brief increase in the share price, and Disney’s 2½-year stock decline accelerated through the end of the summer.

Meanwhile, Disney is in the midst of exploring strategic options for its Star India business, whose fortunes have soured in recent months after losing a key bidding war, the Journal previously reported.

Trian, like other activists, is known for encouraging changes at the companies it targets such as a breakup or the sale of underperforming divisions or moves to improve efficiency and better use capital.

Peltz has previously served on the boards of other consumer-facing companies including Oreo maker Mondelez International, Kraft Heinz and, more recently, Unilever, the maker of Dove soap and Hellmann’s mayonnaise.

Write to Lauren Thomas at lauren.thomas@wsj.com and Robbie Whelan at robbie.whelan@wsj.com

 

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...t-investor-nelson-peltz-source-112453687.html

Disney caught by surprise by the return of activist investor Nelson Peltz: source
Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor
Mon, October 9, 2023 at 6:24 AM CDT

Disney's (DIS) management team may have something in common with Snow White star Sleepy.

"They were caught by surprise," a person familiar with the matter told Yahoo Finance about Trian Fund Management Nelson Peltz's latest activist attack on the bumbling media conglomerate.

With Disney shares plumbing fresh 52-week lows, billionaire Peltz is jumping back in the ring to duke it out with superstar CEO Bob Iger.

84.00+1.06 (1.28%)
Pre-market: 7:28AM EDT

Peltz is seeking multiple board seats at Disney, including one for himself, the person said. The Wall Street Journal first reported news of Peltz' move.

The window for board nominations begins on Dec. 5 and continues to Jan. 4. But the situation at Disney is so concerning that Peltz didn't see the need to wait until December, the person said.

Trian has a stake believed to be valued at about $2.5 billion, making it one of Disney's largest investors.

No meeting between Peltz and Iger has been scheduled, according to the source.

Iger may have been caught off-guard by the return of frequent critic Peltz for one simple reason: Peltz pulled back his contentious campaign against the company in February.

At the time, Peltz said in a TV interview that "Disney plans to do everything we wanted them to do." Perhaps foreshadowing the latest move, Peltz added in the interview, "We will be watching."

Since then, however, it has been a comedy of errors at Disney (or a horror movie).

First, Disney's stock is down 26% since Peltz halted his campaign against Disney. The Dow Jones Industrial Average — of which Disney is a component — has fallen 2.4%.

Meanwhile, following sweeping layoffs at Disney enacted by Iger this year, investors remain on pins and needles for the next restructuring move.

Iger said in July he would take an "expansive" look at Disney's traditional TV assets, a signal to Wall Street that a sale of linear TV channels is in the cards amid growing cord-cutting by consumers.

No update from Disney has been provided since. Iger has said that he doesn't want to unload the ESPN brand.

Other fears include Disney potentially overpaying to buy out its stake in Hulu from Comcast — discussions between the two parties have reportedly begun.

The lack of information may well be unnerving investors.

"To hear a leader in the industry like Bob Iger acknowledge that you have to put everything on the table right now, I think shows how seriously they're taking this," Goldman Sachs media analyst Brett Feldman said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above).

"It's a real signal to the Street that they're going to do what they need to do so that Disney can have another hundred years of success," Feldman added.

Disney has not responded to Yahoo Finance's request for comment.

 

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https://www.ft.com/content/bee3f6c9-2181-4c4b-8dc7-66c007aee5dd

Nelson Peltz in fresh push for Disney board seats
Veteran activist investor has increased Trian’s stake in US entertainment group since burying hatchet in February

Harriet Agnew and Daniel Thomas in London
10/9/23

Nelson Peltz, the billionaire founder of activist firm Trian Partners, has increased his stake in Disney and is set to revive a campaign for board seats at the US entertainment group.

Trian, which in February called off its fight against Disney, has in the past two months boosted its stake in the company to a position worth more than $2.5bn, making it one of its largest shareholders, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. The firm is planning to request seats on the Disney board including one for Peltz, said the people.

“Trian believes it’s now time to have a seat at the table,” one of the people said. Disney’s shares are “significantly undervalued” and the board needs to be “more focused, aligned and accountable”. New York-based Trian, which manages around $9bn, declined to comment. News of Peltz’s fresh push for board seats was first reported by the Wall Street journal.

Peltz called off his fight against Disney two months after Bob Iger returned as Disney chief executive and a day after the company unveiled a plan to cut 7,000 jobs and reinstate the dividend suspended during the pandemic. Trian had called Disney’s succession planning process “broken”, attacked cost inefficiencies in the streaming business, and criticised the group’s 2018 acquisition of 21st Century Fox.

Since February, however, Disney’s stock has declined by 25 per cent. Trian, which owned 6.4mn shares in August, now owns more than 30mn shares, the people said.

Peltz, known for his activist campaigns against Unilever, Procter & Gamble and Wendy’s, wants Disney to get overheads “in line” and have “a clear strategy going forward”, said one of the people familiar with the 81-year-old financier’s thinking.

Disney, like all the large streaming services, has been under pressure from investors to curtail profligate spending on TV and film content amid a slowdown in new subscribers numbers. Analysts have been concerned about “peak streaming” in markets such as the US.

Disney’s direct-to-consumer streaming operations, which includes Disney+, made a large loss last year, and the company does not expect the business to return to profit until 2024. Disney+ subscriber numbers continued to fall last quarter, more than analysts had expected. The unit posted a rare quarterly loss due to one-off charges and impairments from taking content from its streaming platform and ending licensing agreements.

Recent blockbuster movies such as Little Mermaid have underwhelmed, while forthcoming releases have been hit by the writers and actors’ strikes in Hollywood.Investors and analysts are also questioning whether the company should sell off some of its “crown jewel” assets, such as streaming service Hulu or sports network ESPN.

ESPN has been hit by cancellations of cable subscriptions, while rivals such as Apple are seeking to acquire rights to high profile sports to show alongside their entertainment content. Trian, however, does not want Disney to sell the sports network, the person familiar with Peltz’s thinking said.

Investors have also questioned the future of the Hulu streaming service, including whether Disney should buy out the one-third stake owned by Comcast as early as next year in a multibillion-dollar transaction.

Meanwhile, the company’s television business, still profitable, has also suffered, with demand eroded by online and streaming rivals as well as a sharp fall in advertising revenues.

Iger, 72, has said he would cut $5.5bn in costs, which has already translated into thousands of job losses. Disney has also committed to investing more in its parks, experiences and products division, which continues to grow.

Another big question concerns Iger himself. The entertainment veteran has extended his contract for another two years, raising doubts over his commitment to finding a successor.

“The challenges are greater than I anticipated,” Iger told CNBC in July.If Disney rejects Trian’s request for board seats, the activist would have the option to put forward its candidates for shareholder approval at its annual meeting next spring.

 

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https://deadline.com/2023/10/the-cw...ge-deal-positive-for-broadcast-tv-1235567628/

CW Parent Nexstar Says Disney-Charter Deal Is A “Positive” For Broadcast TV
By Dade Hayes - Business Editor
October 9, 2023 6:14am PDT

In a boosterish, 12-page slide deck issued this morning, top station group owner and CW parent Nexstar Media Group made the case for broadcast television and saluted last month’s Disney–Charter carriage deal.

Broadcast TV networks have the widest reach, especially when airing live sports, the presentation argued, but get paid proportionately less than cable networks. That sets the stage for future distribution revenue growth.

The Disney-Charter deal is “a positive for broadcast TV,” Nexstar said, because it combines direct-to-consumer streaming services with broadcast and cable network. That more unified approach “should reduce churn,” Nexstar said. “By providing more content that viewers want at a competitive/better price than the DTC bundle, subscriber trends should stabilize.”

The cable bundle also was “bloated,” the company added. In the case of Disney-Charter, networks like Freeform and Disney Jr. lost distribution on the nation’s No. 2 cable platform as distributors continue to cull the field. That is an indication that dollars from pay-TV operators that used to go to securing networks at ever-escalating carriage rates will be “reallocated to premium content like broadcast television.”

Nexstar last fall took a 75% stake in The CW, with prior 50-50 partners Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery retaining 12.5% apiece. The company already had been banging the drum for broadcast TV on the local level, but has become a vocal advocate for the setup on the national level. The CW has launched weekend programming for the first time and has also entered the sports business, locking up rights to college sports, auto racing and pro golf.

Despite all of the optimism, times are challenging for the traditional TV bundle. From peak penetration of 100 million homes barely a decade ago, the bundle has been shedding millions of paying customers each year. That downturn has jeopardized the dual revenue stream of advertising and distribution and undermined the efforts of a number of media companies. Disney, as it was pursuing a resolution with Charter, has also been holding talks with a number of parties (including Nexstar) about its linear TV assets, including ABC and local stations.

 

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https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-nfl-buy-abc-analyst-173955392.html

Why the NFL should buy ABC: Analyst
Nicholas Jacobino and Akiko Fujita
Mon, October 9, 2023 at 12:39 PM CDT

DIS +2.14%

NFL contracts with their media distributors currently goes through the 2033 season, and since Disney CEO Bob Iger (DIS) recently announced he will be taking an "expansive" look into traditional TV assets, Laura Martin, Needham & Co. Senior Media & Internet Analyst, believes that the NFL has a lucrative opportunity to buy ABC from the media giant.

She joins Yahoo Finance to discuss her reasoning as well as the recent news of Nelson Peltz's decision to increase Trian Management's position in Disney.

Martin argues the NFL needs "to take a stronger hand in making sure linear TV survives or they're not going to have alternate bidders in 2032 and they're not going to have team values because the team values come from broadcast TV license fees," especially as media conglomerates move further into non-linear streaming.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.