irlandaise
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Oh, so it's only the ABC O&Os that are affected. That makes sense.
DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY
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Brocktoon
21st Century Schizoid Man
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Pretty much how I currently feel as well. Chapek may have been a 'nuke', but I think Iger may be a death by a thousand cuts.
wabbott
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I concur with almost all your sentiments. It really distresses me that no one in management seems motivated.
TheDailyMoo
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To me that's the scariest part of all this. It's like looking at the driver of your vehicle fully aware, wide eyed, headed straight for a cliff and absolutely no recognition as to what they're about to do.
JoJoGirl
Riding the Hydrolator to SeaBase Alpha
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Purely anecdotal experience here: In our home we have a media room with three TVs for watching sports. We are also Spectrum subscribers in the Midwest affected by the blackout. Yesterday we found plenty of games to watch all day on all the screens, and kept up with the others through highlights and sports news apps. My husband ended up questioning why we needed ESPN at all, and said he wasn’t willing to pay more for it as long as there are so many other options.
No doubt folks in SEC country feel differently - with its near monopoly on the SEC, ESPN is probably not so expendable for them. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.
No doubt folks in SEC country feel differently - with its near monopoly on the SEC, ESPN is probably not so expendable for them. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.
BrianL
Doom Buggy Driver
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Brian Noble
Gratefully in Recovery
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It’s easier to do up here now that ESPN has no Big
JoJoGirl
Riding the Hydrolator to SeaBase Alpha
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Wow! Are you Elvis?
The man cave was my husband’s retirement dream! That and a Winnebago. So now we have both and he’s living his best life, lol.They dont believe they are doing anything wrong. They blame the sun for dropping attendance numbers in the parks. They blame Chapek for any shady accounting. They blame their audience when movies bomb. They blame a changing marketplace when Disney+ declines in subscriptions. They just simply blame COVID when they run out of people to blame and need to blame something. They blame everyone and everything but themselves.
This company right now has no vision. No goals. They have no clue where they want to be in 10 years. There isn't even any clear leadership. There is no clear successor for CEO. And there is dysfunction in the top ranks.
It's a mess.
Jwaire
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I would disagree with you there.
Disney Parks, Experiences and Products has a vision — to charge guests more for less and do it all with less cast members.
It seems like they also plan to milk Walt Disney World for every single penny while investing in the poor performing international parks because they're the "growth opportunity."
jade1
I spend half my money on WDW, and waste the rest.
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Jrb1979
DIS Veteran
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In the case of the Japan parks, they get investments cause their owners will pay for them. At this point I want to see Disney split up the company. Sell the parks to Herschend and let them run them.I would disagree with you there.
Disney Parks, Experiences and Products has a vision — to charge guests more for less and do it all with less cast members.
It seems like they also plan to milk Walt Disney World for every single penny while investing in the poor performing international parks because they're the "growth opportunity."
View attachment 791220
Sell streaming to Apple and just become a studio again.
wabbott
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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...ock-price-analyst-charter-dispute-1235581950/
Disney Gets Stock Price Target Cut by More Than $30 From Wells Fargo Analyst
“Approaching calendar year 2024, we think the longer-term direct-to-consumer earnings/margins story begins to emerge as the key reason to own Disney in duration," writes analyst Steven Cahall.
By Georg Szalai
September 5, 2023 7:58am PDT
Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall cut his stock price target on the Walt Disney Co. by more than $30 on Tuesday but stuck to his “overweight” rating, predicting that investor focus would over time shift from near-term challenges to longer-term upside.
His commentary comes at a time when analysts have been intensely debating the outlook for Disney amid various challenges, from cord-cutting and streaming losses to advertising market clouds, and questions about the company’s future business mix.
“To us, Disney is the most interesting stock in media: an IP powerhouse down on its luck, at a COVID price and historically low multiple,” he wrote. Presenting deep dives into the investor bull and bear cases, he averaged the two scenarios for a new stock price target of $110, down from $146 previously.
Summarizing bears’ arguments, Cahall mentioned the conglomerate’s recent lack of big content successes. “Disney is not a hit factory of late, and content improvement takes a lot of time. Disney’s box office and Disney+ subs will suffer, especially amidst price increases,” he explained investors’ worries. “This creates further downside to direct-to-consumer (DTC) estimates with our bear case below Street on subs and DTC operating income.
Other elements of the bear case include that “Disney doesn’t spend as much on content as investors think: $10 billion, excluding sports/participations” and the concern that ESPN will not transition well to streaming, “creating a long-term earnings per share hole,” the Wells Fargo expert highlighted. A final worry has to do with CEO Bob Iger’s recent mention that the Hollywood giant could sell linear TV networks, excluding ESPN. Cahall summarized it this way: “Disney won’t be able to successfully divest non-core linear.”
In contrast, the bull case for Disney focuses on its “remarkable IP library” with strong appeal to kids and families, which make up roughly two-thirds of core Disney+ subs, Cahall highlighted. In addition, the streamer is “now about price/margins, not sub growth.” And he argued that “Disney+ is massively under-priced versus Netflix on dollar per month average revenue per user (ARPU) per billion dollar content value, including Disney library, so we’re bullish on price hikes.”
Other causes for optimism are the “exceptional” Disney Parks, Experiences and Products (DPEP) business, the planned sale of linear TV assets, and a predicted DTC break-even by the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 along with what Cahall estimates to be $1 billion in Hulu cost synergies after Comcast puts its 33 percent stake in the streamer to Disney.
He even sees an opportunity in the recent heated headlines about Disney’s carriage dispute with cable giant Charter Communications. “ESPN = not operating income driver + Charter dispute speeds change,” Cahall expressed his take in equation form.
His math: “There are arguably around 60 million-plus sports fan households based on viewership across major sporting events.” When ESPN had about 100 million subs in 2015, he estimated non-sports fan subs of around 40 million, “so ESPN’s affiliate fee was revenue-maximizing but under-pricing sports fans,” Cahall explained. “Now, non-sports fans are less then 20 percent of [pay TV] subs, so it makes far more sense for Disney to launch DTC and price discriminate to the more price-inelastic sports fan.”
The analyst expects an early fiscal year 2025 ESPN streaming launch and “trough ESPN EBITDA of around $1 billion in fiscal years 2024-2026, down from about $4 billion in fiscal year 2021.”
Another one of his key arguments is that the “Charter dispute not as material for Disney as bears think.” Explained Cahall: “While we don’t disagree with Charter’s assessment that the pay TV ecosystem is broken with bundles and fee structures that aren’t consumer friendly, we’re also not convinced this is a pivotal moment for Disney. For one, if there’s a persistent Charter blackout or perpetuity drop of Disney content, then subs will likely re-appear on other TV services including Disney’s streaming services, Hulu Live TV, YouTube TV, etc. Given the availability and choice in content services today — and their ubiquity — it does not stand to reason that a drop by Charter’s means viewers will remain unsubscribed, and especially sports fans during football season.”
Additionally, he suggested that Disney likely accounts for “a bigger part of viewership than Charter has indicated.”
Overall, the Wells Fargo analyst is taking a longer-term view on Disney. “Taking the best from each argument [bull and bear], we think the short term is more risky due to DTC subs churn on price hikes, Charter headlines, getting Hulu done and macro for parks,” Cahall concluded. “Approaching calendar year 2024, we think the longer-term DTC earnings/margins story begins to emerge as the key reason to own Disney in duration.”
He also shared why he is sticking to recommending Disney’s stock with his “overweight” rating, explaining: “We think the bad news is mostly baked in.”
Disney Gets Stock Price Target Cut by More Than $30 From Wells Fargo Analyst
“Approaching calendar year 2024, we think the longer-term direct-to-consumer earnings/margins story begins to emerge as the key reason to own Disney in duration," writes analyst Steven Cahall.
By Georg Szalai
September 5, 2023 7:58am PDT
Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall cut his stock price target on the Walt Disney Co. by more than $30 on Tuesday but stuck to his “overweight” rating, predicting that investor focus would over time shift from near-term challenges to longer-term upside.
His commentary comes at a time when analysts have been intensely debating the outlook for Disney amid various challenges, from cord-cutting and streaming losses to advertising market clouds, and questions about the company’s future business mix.
“To us, Disney is the most interesting stock in media: an IP powerhouse down on its luck, at a COVID price and historically low multiple,” he wrote. Presenting deep dives into the investor bull and bear cases, he averaged the two scenarios for a new stock price target of $110, down from $146 previously.
Summarizing bears’ arguments, Cahall mentioned the conglomerate’s recent lack of big content successes. “Disney is not a hit factory of late, and content improvement takes a lot of time. Disney’s box office and Disney+ subs will suffer, especially amidst price increases,” he explained investors’ worries. “This creates further downside to direct-to-consumer (DTC) estimates with our bear case below Street on subs and DTC operating income.
Other elements of the bear case include that “Disney doesn’t spend as much on content as investors think: $10 billion, excluding sports/participations” and the concern that ESPN will not transition well to streaming, “creating a long-term earnings per share hole,” the Wells Fargo expert highlighted. A final worry has to do with CEO Bob Iger’s recent mention that the Hollywood giant could sell linear TV networks, excluding ESPN. Cahall summarized it this way: “Disney won’t be able to successfully divest non-core linear.”
In contrast, the bull case for Disney focuses on its “remarkable IP library” with strong appeal to kids and families, which make up roughly two-thirds of core Disney+ subs, Cahall highlighted. In addition, the streamer is “now about price/margins, not sub growth.” And he argued that “Disney+ is massively under-priced versus Netflix on dollar per month average revenue per user (ARPU) per billion dollar content value, including Disney library, so we’re bullish on price hikes.”
Other causes for optimism are the “exceptional” Disney Parks, Experiences and Products (DPEP) business, the planned sale of linear TV assets, and a predicted DTC break-even by the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 along with what Cahall estimates to be $1 billion in Hulu cost synergies after Comcast puts its 33 percent stake in the streamer to Disney.
He even sees an opportunity in the recent heated headlines about Disney’s carriage dispute with cable giant Charter Communications. “ESPN = not operating income driver + Charter dispute speeds change,” Cahall expressed his take in equation form.
His math: “There are arguably around 60 million-plus sports fan households based on viewership across major sporting events.” When ESPN had about 100 million subs in 2015, he estimated non-sports fan subs of around 40 million, “so ESPN’s affiliate fee was revenue-maximizing but under-pricing sports fans,” Cahall explained. “Now, non-sports fans are less then 20 percent of [pay TV] subs, so it makes far more sense for Disney to launch DTC and price discriminate to the more price-inelastic sports fan.”
The analyst expects an early fiscal year 2025 ESPN streaming launch and “trough ESPN EBITDA of around $1 billion in fiscal years 2024-2026, down from about $4 billion in fiscal year 2021.”
Another one of his key arguments is that the “Charter dispute not as material for Disney as bears think.” Explained Cahall: “While we don’t disagree with Charter’s assessment that the pay TV ecosystem is broken with bundles and fee structures that aren’t consumer friendly, we’re also not convinced this is a pivotal moment for Disney. For one, if there’s a persistent Charter blackout or perpetuity drop of Disney content, then subs will likely re-appear on other TV services including Disney’s streaming services, Hulu Live TV, YouTube TV, etc. Given the availability and choice in content services today — and their ubiquity — it does not stand to reason that a drop by Charter’s means viewers will remain unsubscribed, and especially sports fans during football season.”
Additionally, he suggested that Disney likely accounts for “a bigger part of viewership than Charter has indicated.”
Overall, the Wells Fargo analyst is taking a longer-term view on Disney. “Taking the best from each argument [bull and bear], we think the short term is more risky due to DTC subs churn on price hikes, Charter headlines, getting Hulu done and macro for parks,” Cahall concluded. “Approaching calendar year 2024, we think the longer-term DTC earnings/margins story begins to emerge as the key reason to own Disney in duration.”
He also shared why he is sticking to recommending Disney’s stock with his “overweight” rating, explaining: “We think the bad news is mostly baked in.”
wabbott
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Disney-Charter Dispute Is a Case of Mutually Assured Destruction
By Callum Keown
Updated Sept. 5, 2023 8:49 am ET / Original Sept. 5, 2023 5:53 am ET
A dispute between Disney (ticker: DIS) and Charter Communications (CHTR), ultimately led to customers of the cable service Spectrum being cut off over the Labor Day holiday weekend. Disney said it was hopeful that Charter will be open to more conversations that will restore access to its content to Spectrum customers, in a blog post Monday.
Meanwhile, the media and entertainment giant has offered Spectrum users a solution—signing up for Hulu+ Live TV, which offers EPSN, ABC, Disney+ and other channels. Disney owns two-thirds of Hulu.
Disney said that Charter declined an offer to extend negotiations, which would have kept ESPN, ABC, and other Disney-owned networks available for customers, in separate a blog post Sunday. The company also said Charter wanted to give its customers free access to Disney’s streaming services.
“Even though Charter also claims to value Disney’s direct-to-consumer services, the cable company is demanding these different services free—which does not make economic sense,” Disney said in a blog post Sunday.
CEO Bob Iger has made returning Disney’s streaming business to profitability a priority, so giving it away free isn’t really an option. But Charter said Disney was insisting on “unsustainable price hikes.”
Charter said Disney wanted customers to “pay twice” to get content apps with the linear video they have already paid for. “This is not a typical carriage dispute. It is significant for Charter, and we think it is even more significant for programmers and the broader video ecosystem,” the company said in a statement Friday.
It added that it was expected to pay Disney more than $2.2 billion in 2023, excluding the impact of advertising.
Oppenheimer analysts said the dispute marked a “tipping point” for legacy TV, and a defining moment for Charter’s business. They said that media providers were transitioning to over-the-top (OTT) TV—meaning streaming content delivered over the internet—but expecting cable providers to keep paying the same amount for legacy TV.
“The linear TV business model is broken. The only thing that can save it somewhat longer term is by combining and bundling with OTT services,” they said.
“We expect Disney to agree to Charter’s terms, or Disney must move to over-the-top immediately, destroying legacy TV. This dispute alone is a $4 billion hit to Disney’s annual free cash flow, including advertising,” analysts, led by Timothy Horan, added.
“Disney/ESPN effectively wants to have its cake and eat it too as it makes the transition to streaming,” analysts at Lightshed Partners said in a note Tuesday.
They added that it “remains unclear” whether Charter is prepared to lose Disney networks permanently but that such battles usually end in an agreement being reached.
“If, however, including the streaming services at no extra cost is a ‘must-win’ for Charter, then we do not expect a deal to be reached anytime soon and the drop could, in fact, be permanent,” they added.
The streaming experience consumers enjoyed during the pandemic years is likely never to return. Netflix NFLX +2.12% has introduced an ad-supported tier and scrapped its basic plan, while also cracking down on password sharing. Disney also announced higher prices last month.
The outcome of the dispute between Charter and Disney could be key in shaping the future of the industry, for its major players, and for consumers.
Right now, no one looks like a winner
By Callum Keown
Updated Sept. 5, 2023 8:49 am ET / Original Sept. 5, 2023 5:53 am ET
A dispute between Disney (ticker: DIS) and Charter Communications (CHTR), ultimately led to customers of the cable service Spectrum being cut off over the Labor Day holiday weekend. Disney said it was hopeful that Charter will be open to more conversations that will restore access to its content to Spectrum customers, in a blog post Monday.
Meanwhile, the media and entertainment giant has offered Spectrum users a solution—signing up for Hulu+ Live TV, which offers EPSN, ABC, Disney+ and other channels. Disney owns two-thirds of Hulu.
Disney said that Charter declined an offer to extend negotiations, which would have kept ESPN, ABC, and other Disney-owned networks available for customers, in separate a blog post Sunday. The company also said Charter wanted to give its customers free access to Disney’s streaming services.
“Even though Charter also claims to value Disney’s direct-to-consumer services, the cable company is demanding these different services free—which does not make economic sense,” Disney said in a blog post Sunday.
CEO Bob Iger has made returning Disney’s streaming business to profitability a priority, so giving it away free isn’t really an option. But Charter said Disney was insisting on “unsustainable price hikes.”
Charter said Disney wanted customers to “pay twice” to get content apps with the linear video they have already paid for. “This is not a typical carriage dispute. It is significant for Charter, and we think it is even more significant for programmers and the broader video ecosystem,” the company said in a statement Friday.
It added that it was expected to pay Disney more than $2.2 billion in 2023, excluding the impact of advertising.
Oppenheimer analysts said the dispute marked a “tipping point” for legacy TV, and a defining moment for Charter’s business. They said that media providers were transitioning to over-the-top (OTT) TV—meaning streaming content delivered over the internet—but expecting cable providers to keep paying the same amount for legacy TV.
“The linear TV business model is broken. The only thing that can save it somewhat longer term is by combining and bundling with OTT services,” they said.
“We expect Disney to agree to Charter’s terms, or Disney must move to over-the-top immediately, destroying legacy TV. This dispute alone is a $4 billion hit to Disney’s annual free cash flow, including advertising,” analysts, led by Timothy Horan, added.
“Disney/ESPN effectively wants to have its cake and eat it too as it makes the transition to streaming,” analysts at Lightshed Partners said in a note Tuesday.
They added that it “remains unclear” whether Charter is prepared to lose Disney networks permanently but that such battles usually end in an agreement being reached.
“If, however, including the streaming services at no extra cost is a ‘must-win’ for Charter, then we do not expect a deal to be reached anytime soon and the drop could, in fact, be permanent,” they added.
The streaming experience consumers enjoyed during the pandemic years is likely never to return. Netflix NFLX +2.12% has introduced an ad-supported tier and scrapped its basic plan, while also cracking down on password sharing. Disney also announced higher prices last month.
The outcome of the dispute between Charter and Disney could be key in shaping the future of the industry, for its major players, and for consumers.
Right now, no one looks like a winner
Jwaire
DIS Veteran
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I was referring to mostly Hong Kong and Paris, and somewhat Shanghai.
Maybe they should sell Disneyland and Walt Disney World to Japan's OLC.
wabbott
DIS Veteran
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https://deadline.com/2023/09/warner...-hollywood-writers-actors-strikes-1235536463/
Warner Bros. Discovery Sees Earnings Hit From Strikes Of Up To $500 Million This Year
By Jill Goldsmith
Co-Business Editor
September 5, 2023 5:37am PDT
The financial impact of ongoing actors and writers strikes has a number on it now, or one at least, as Warner Bros. Discovery said today it’s looking at a hit of $300 million to $500 million in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for 2023 due to the work stoppages.
In a filing this morning with the Securities and Exchange Commission, WBD said “it is expecting lower adjusted EBITDA for the full year in the range of $10.5 to $11 billion, reflecting the company’s assumption that adjusted EBITDA will be negatively impacted by approximately $300 to $500 million, predominantly due to the impact of the strikes.”
Free cash flow goes the other direction. The company raised its free cash flow expectations for the full year to at least $5 billion. It said it expects to exceed $1.7 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter due to Barbie, released July 21, as well as incremental impact from strike-related factors.
WBD “will continue to update its assumptions “based on the timing and any additional impacts of the eventual resolution of the strikes,” the company led by CEO David Zaslav said in the SEC filing. “WBD continues to prioritize and work diligently with other industry leadership to resolve the current WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes in a manner that is fair and values the important work of, and partnership with, the writers and actors.”
Writers began picketing May 2. Actors joined on July 14. Studios heads last sat at the bargaining table with the WGA on August 22. There have been no talks with SAG-AFTRA since the guild struck.
WBD execs indicated on a qarterly earnings call in August that their full-year financial guidance assumed the strikes would be resolved by early September. But with no resolution in sight, it is revisiting and quantifying that guidance now.
“The Company noted on the earnings call that if the strikes were to continue through the end of the year, it expected incremental upside to free cash flow and incremental downside to adjusted EBITDA due to the strikes’ impact on timing and performance of the remainder of the 2023 film slate, as well as the Company’s ability to produce and deliver content. While WBD is hopeful that these strikes will be resolved soon, it cannot predict when the strikes will ultimately end. With both guilds still on strike today, the Company now assumes the financial impact to WBD of these strikes will persist through the end of 2023.”
Warner recently moved sequel Dune: Part Two from Denis Villeneuve off its November 3 theatrical release to March of 2024, as dates begin to shift. The studio is a major producer of television, most of which has been shut down even as the fall season looms.
Zaslav will be speaking at a Goldman Sachs media conference this week as will heads of AMPTP companies Netflix, Comcast and Paramount. CEO public comments have generally been pretty anodyne, and Wall Street has been focusing on cost savings from shuttered production. It will be interesting to see if and how the tone starts to shift heading into the fall, and if other studios will also start to revise earnings guidance. The earnings hit that WBD announced today is already baked in for 2023 — meaning it wouldn’t really change even if the strikes resolved soon.
Warner Bros. Discovery Sees Earnings Hit From Strikes Of Up To $500 Million This Year
By Jill Goldsmith
Co-Business Editor
September 5, 2023 5:37am PDT
The financial impact of ongoing actors and writers strikes has a number on it now, or one at least, as Warner Bros. Discovery said today it’s looking at a hit of $300 million to $500 million in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for 2023 due to the work stoppages.
In a filing this morning with the Securities and Exchange Commission, WBD said “it is expecting lower adjusted EBITDA for the full year in the range of $10.5 to $11 billion, reflecting the company’s assumption that adjusted EBITDA will be negatively impacted by approximately $300 to $500 million, predominantly due to the impact of the strikes.”
Free cash flow goes the other direction. The company raised its free cash flow expectations for the full year to at least $5 billion. It said it expects to exceed $1.7 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter due to Barbie, released July 21, as well as incremental impact from strike-related factors.
WBD “will continue to update its assumptions “based on the timing and any additional impacts of the eventual resolution of the strikes,” the company led by CEO David Zaslav said in the SEC filing. “WBD continues to prioritize and work diligently with other industry leadership to resolve the current WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes in a manner that is fair and values the important work of, and partnership with, the writers and actors.”
Writers began picketing May 2. Actors joined on July 14. Studios heads last sat at the bargaining table with the WGA on August 22. There have been no talks with SAG-AFTRA since the guild struck.
WBD execs indicated on a qarterly earnings call in August that their full-year financial guidance assumed the strikes would be resolved by early September. But with no resolution in sight, it is revisiting and quantifying that guidance now.
“The Company noted on the earnings call that if the strikes were to continue through the end of the year, it expected incremental upside to free cash flow and incremental downside to adjusted EBITDA due to the strikes’ impact on timing and performance of the remainder of the 2023 film slate, as well as the Company’s ability to produce and deliver content. While WBD is hopeful that these strikes will be resolved soon, it cannot predict when the strikes will ultimately end. With both guilds still on strike today, the Company now assumes the financial impact to WBD of these strikes will persist through the end of 2023.”
Warner recently moved sequel Dune: Part Two from Denis Villeneuve off its November 3 theatrical release to March of 2024, as dates begin to shift. The studio is a major producer of television, most of which has been shut down even as the fall season looms.
Zaslav will be speaking at a Goldman Sachs media conference this week as will heads of AMPTP companies Netflix, Comcast and Paramount. CEO public comments have generally been pretty anodyne, and Wall Street has been focusing on cost savings from shuttered production. It will be interesting to see if and how the tone starts to shift heading into the fall, and if other studios will also start to revise earnings guidance. The earnings hit that WBD announced today is already baked in for 2023 — meaning it wouldn’t really change even if the strikes resolved soon.
wabbott
DIS Veteran
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-stock-espn-valuation-streaming-9df856b4?siteid=yhoof2
How Much Is ESPN Worth? Not Enough to Make Disney Stock a Buy, This Analyst Says.
By Adam ClarkSept. 5, 2023 8:01 am EDT
WaltDisney is about to give investors a clearer idea of ESPN’s financials. The details could come as something of a disappointment, according to KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel.
Disney (ticker: DIS) is restructuring under CEO Bob Iger and ESPN will become a stand-alone unit. For the first time its full financials will be broken out from Disney’s wider entertainment business, just as the company looks for external investors to help prepare for the sports broadcaster’s streaming future.
KeyBanc’s Nispel did the math and puts ESPN’s value at about $30 billion currently but he compared it to a “melting iceberg”, as he argued the broadcaster is set to struggle with an eventual transition to being primarily a streaming service.
The valuation is based on a forecast of ESPN’s annual revenue at around $16 billion with a low-single-digit percentage growth rate. Nispel put ESPN’s operating income margin in the low 20s percentage range, forecasting its annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization at around $3.79 billion currently.
The valuation is likely below current consensus estimates, Nispel noted. Analysts at Wedbush recently suggested Apple should look to acquire ESPN with a price tag of around $50 billion in order to supercharge its own streaming service.
“We don’t believe it is likely Apple will acquire the business when valuations may be coming down in the future,” KeyBanc’s Nispel wrote.
Nispel also said ESPN’s outlook could be further impaired if Disney’s dispute with Charter Communications continues.
wabbott
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...ulu-live-amid-contract-dispute-180234213.html
Disney pushes Charter subscribers to sign up for Hulu Live amid contract dispute
Alexandra Canal · Senior Reporter
Tue, September 5, 2023 at 11:02 AM PDT
A contract dispute between Disney (DIS) and Charter (CHTR) continued on Tuesday after the media giant pulled its owned and operated channels including ESPN and ABC off Charter Spectrum cable systems late last week.
Disney urged Spectrum subscribers to opt for Hulu + Live TV to circumvent blackouts after viewers were unable to watch the US Open and a slew of high-profile college football games over the weekend through ESPN and its affiliate channels. In addition to ESPN, other Disney Entertainment channels affected include the Disney Channel, Freeform, National Geographic, and local news stations on the ABC network.
"Despite the ongoing dispute, consumers have many other choices—such as Hulu + Live TV—that allow them to enjoy the great programming for which Disney Entertainment is known," the company said in a blog post on Tuesday.
Disney added it "deeply values its relationship with its viewers" and is hopeful a resolution with Charter can be reached "as quickly as possible."
Charter did not immediately respond to Yahoo Finance's request for comment.
How we got here
The companies had reached a stalemate over whether Disney should give Charter subscribers free access to its ad-supported streaming services as part of Charter's cable package. Charter also alleged Disney has insisted on higher rates and limited flexibility for consumers.
"[Disney] wants to require customers to pay twice to get content apps with the linear video they have already paid for," the telecommunications giant said on Friday. "This is not a typical carriage dispute. It is significant for Charter, and we think it is even more significant for programmers and the broader video ecosystem."
In a fiery response Friday afternoon, Disney Entertainment said Charter refused to enter into a new agreement that reflects market-based terms, writing in part: "Contrary to their claims, we have offered Charter the most favorable terms on rates, distribution, packaging, advertising and more."
Carriage fee issues have mounted in recent years amid the steep declines in linear television viewership as more subscribers cut the cord and opt for streaming services.
According to the latest data from Nielsen released last month, linear TV viewership fell below 50% in July for the first time.
'Devastating impact' on traditional media
Analysts weighed in on the longer-term implications if Charter and Disney don't reach a deal.
"If this posture were to be extrapolated across all other major video distributors, we believe it would have a devastating impact on the profits and losses of the entire traditional media & entertainment group," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote on Tuesday.
"The result would lead to a significant decline in highly profitable linear subscribers that would be only partially recouped by likely fewer and less profitable direct-to-consumer subs," she continued. That would amplify longer-term leverage concerns for media companies like Paramount Global (PARA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Fox (FOX), which carry significant debt loads.
Charter and the Walt Disney Co. blamed each other Friday, Sept. 1, 2023 in a business dispute that cut off Disney-owned stations to customers on the eve of a big sports weekend for US Open tennis and college football fans. (Richard Drew/AP Photo, File)
Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall said last week that Charter's dispute with Disney represents "a line in the sand intended to change the norms of network distribution."
It's a high-stakes battle for both sides. Cahall estimated Charter would lose about 1.8 million subscribers in the case of a permanent blackout of Disney's channels. That suggests a hit of approximately $3.7 billion in Charter's annualized revenue, or roughly 7% of consensus full-year 2024 revenue.
Cahall said costs would primarily be offset by declining programing expenses, adding, "[We] actually see this as a far bigger deal for media than Charter. We estimate just 5% of CHTR's EBITDA is video, while plenty of media/broadcast stocks get nearly 100% of EBITDA from linear networks/stations."
Disney pushes Charter subscribers to sign up for Hulu Live amid contract dispute
Alexandra Canal · Senior Reporter
Tue, September 5, 2023 at 11:02 AM PDT
A contract dispute between Disney (DIS) and Charter (CHTR) continued on Tuesday after the media giant pulled its owned and operated channels including ESPN and ABC off Charter Spectrum cable systems late last week.
Disney urged Spectrum subscribers to opt for Hulu + Live TV to circumvent blackouts after viewers were unable to watch the US Open and a slew of high-profile college football games over the weekend through ESPN and its affiliate channels. In addition to ESPN, other Disney Entertainment channels affected include the Disney Channel, Freeform, National Geographic, and local news stations on the ABC network.
"Despite the ongoing dispute, consumers have many other choices—such as Hulu + Live TV—that allow them to enjoy the great programming for which Disney Entertainment is known," the company said in a blog post on Tuesday.
Disney added it "deeply values its relationship with its viewers" and is hopeful a resolution with Charter can be reached "as quickly as possible."
Charter did not immediately respond to Yahoo Finance's request for comment.
How we got here
The companies had reached a stalemate over whether Disney should give Charter subscribers free access to its ad-supported streaming services as part of Charter's cable package. Charter also alleged Disney has insisted on higher rates and limited flexibility for consumers.
"[Disney] wants to require customers to pay twice to get content apps with the linear video they have already paid for," the telecommunications giant said on Friday. "This is not a typical carriage dispute. It is significant for Charter, and we think it is even more significant for programmers and the broader video ecosystem."
In a fiery response Friday afternoon, Disney Entertainment said Charter refused to enter into a new agreement that reflects market-based terms, writing in part: "Contrary to their claims, we have offered Charter the most favorable terms on rates, distribution, packaging, advertising and more."
Carriage fee issues have mounted in recent years amid the steep declines in linear television viewership as more subscribers cut the cord and opt for streaming services.
According to the latest data from Nielsen released last month, linear TV viewership fell below 50% in July for the first time.
'Devastating impact' on traditional media
Analysts weighed in on the longer-term implications if Charter and Disney don't reach a deal.
"If this posture were to be extrapolated across all other major video distributors, we believe it would have a devastating impact on the profits and losses of the entire traditional media & entertainment group," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote on Tuesday.
"The result would lead to a significant decline in highly profitable linear subscribers that would be only partially recouped by likely fewer and less profitable direct-to-consumer subs," she continued. That would amplify longer-term leverage concerns for media companies like Paramount Global (PARA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Fox (FOX), which carry significant debt loads.
Charter and the Walt Disney Co. blamed each other Friday, Sept. 1, 2023 in a business dispute that cut off Disney-owned stations to customers on the eve of a big sports weekend for US Open tennis and college football fans. (Richard Drew/AP Photo, File)
Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall said last week that Charter's dispute with Disney represents "a line in the sand intended to change the norms of network distribution."
It's a high-stakes battle for both sides. Cahall estimated Charter would lose about 1.8 million subscribers in the case of a permanent blackout of Disney's channels. That suggests a hit of approximately $3.7 billion in Charter's annualized revenue, or roughly 7% of consensus full-year 2024 revenue.
Cahall said costs would primarily be offset by declining programing expenses, adding, "[We] actually see this as a far bigger deal for media than Charter. We estimate just 5% of CHTR's EBITDA is video, while plenty of media/broadcast stocks get nearly 100% of EBITDA from linear networks/stations."
Something to also consider.... Disney was already double dipping and charging service providers for ESPN3 access. When ESPN plus came along they were essentially trying to triple dip, twice by force and once by choice. There was minimal uptake on ESPN plus so they needed to dumb down what they were already charging people for in ESPN and ESPN3.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/disney-succession-mess-iger-chapek.html
A long read, but a good read.
A long read, but a good read.
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