Direct Sales For October

[KTownRaider]

With all of the 50th foot traffic, I thought October would have been a stronger month...

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/5168-direct-sales-remain-soft-in-october-2021

 

[crvetter]

If I recall correctly, this is compiled from recording data at the courthouse. It typically takes Disney 30 days to record the deeds from the date of sale. So this is really more representative of September. I do enjoy their content, but this slight context would help clarify stuff.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

If I recall correctly, this is compiled from recording data at the courthouse. It typically takes Disney 30 days to record the deeds from the date of sale. So this is really more representative of September. I do enjoy their content, but this slight context would help clarify stuff.

That would put the weak September data based on August sales. I wonder how much the high summer Covid rates in Florida and the inflation, product supply issues, and general ongoing pandemic-related uncertainties are playing into this. Pair all that with recent decisions Disney has made, and soft sales data is not surprising.

 

[Matty B13]

With all the huge increases on food, tickets, and hotel rooms, I'm guessing that a lot of people who saved up during the pandemic to go to Disney blew threw their savings and don't have even the down payment for DVC points. I know our trips for a family of 5 were in the $5k to $7k per vacation back just a few years ago, now those same trips are $8k to $12k. It has really made us revaluate our trips to Disney, and might have us going every other year instead of every year. Might sell off some of our points that we won't be using.

 

[The Jackal]

With all of the 50th foot traffic, I thought October would have been a stronger month...

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/5168-direct-sales-remain-soft-in-october-2021

I’m not surprised. With the way the economy is going, people will be hesitant to drop $20,000 on DVC.

 

[davidl81]

I’m not surprised. With the way the economy is going, people will be hesitant to drop $20,000 on DVC.

I don’t think the economy is in a bad shape at all with the exception being inflation is higher than normal, but it’s not nearly as bad as some people make it out to be (as long as it settles down over time). Unemployment is down, wages across the board are up 5% y/y. And frankly if one is concerned about inflation then DVC actually makes more sense since you are locking in a “fixed” price now as opposed to having inflation increase hotel prices over time.
I do think the hot DVC market earlier this year is skewing our views a bit. Last year/early this year we had people with stimulus money and a ton of cash saved up since many people skipped vacations last year. Now that a lot of that extra money has been spent we are seeing more normal sales activity. The next few months will be interesting because the parks are packed right now and if sales stay low or really becomes to me more of a question of has DVC just gotten too aggressive on price increases and point requirements at new resorts and just priced out some buyers.

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

I’m not surprised. With the way the economy is going, people will be hesitant to drop $20,000 on DVC.

I think Hilton Head and Vero Beach are the only ones you can get for $20K direct. Now that the cheapest WDW DVC properties are $180 per point x 150 new member points, prices start above $27,000. To think when we were inquiring less than 2 years ago, it was $18-$19,000 for a new membership (fewer points though).

 

[sethschroeder]

exception being inflation is higher than normal

Food prices are up with the highest increases in the last decade and you potentially are seeing property tax increase because of new home values. People are seeing their budgets shrink. Then you add on top of it the raising costs of Disney where people see themselves getting priced out quickly potentially there as well.

Also the 5% wage increases sounds great but I suspect it is skewed by larger increases in minimum wage positions which historically have been stagnant for wage growth. That subset would be unlikely to make up much market share of DVC purchases. I am just slightly guessing as I haven't looked directly at the data on this piece.

 

[sethschroeder]

Riviera still in that 60-65% range. Its suppressed below the expected 70-75% likely because of restrictions and point charts.

Seems DVC as a whole is struggling so will be interesting to see what they do with VGF when it launches. Keep thinking it will launch at a high price point because you might as well squeeze every cent out of people who will still buy compared to lowering the price and not really picking up more buyers anyways.

 

[tjkraz]

If I recall correctly, this is compiled from recording data at the courthouse. It typically takes Disney 30 days to record the deeds from the date of sale. So this is really more representative of September. I do enjoy their content, but this slight context would help clarify stuff.

I believe it's accurate to say that the majority of contracts close within 2 weeks of the date they are written. The October recordings include most contracts agreed-to in the first two weeks of October. But many purchases are made remotely (from home) and it varies greatly depending on how quickly the buyers return the contract. Some drag out for 2-3 months or more.

It's very rare that an event like the 50th anniversary kickoff falls right at the start of the month. Sales are influenced by seasons, traffic from park-wide events (F&W, etc), start of sales promotions, turnaround by both Disney and county and a variety of other factors.

It's the price we have to pay for having some immediate data to discuss.

 

[RoseGold]

I visited in late October and the kiosks were all staffed up. Nobody emptying the trash can next to it, but definitely someone at the DVC kiosk. When I visited in summer, it seemed like only a few were staffed.

 

[DonMacGregor]

None of the kiosks in DLR are staffed, including the ones in DTD and at DLH (the one in the pool area near the big Sorcerer hat). The big DVC center at DLH, colloquially referred to as the "BOB" (Big Orange Building) is also closed up, including the Aulani preview rooms. The DVC center in GCV is open, but the 3 or 4 times I've looked in there, it has been staffed by a single, lonely Guide. So, basically, DVC's total presence has been a single CM working the entire DLR at any one moment.

 

[hhisc16]

Interesting for 0 sales to HHI. I understand the 0 sales for VGF due to not selling direct.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

With all the huge increases on food, tickets, and hotel rooms, I'm guessing that a lot of people who saved up during the pandemic to go to Disney blew threw their savings and don't have even the down payment for DVC points. I know our trips for a family of 5 were in the $5k to $7k per vacation back just a few years ago, now those same trips are $8k to $12k. It has really made us revaluate our trips to Disney, and might have us going every other year instead of every year. Might sell off some of our points that we won't be using.

A Magical visit to a Disney park that doesn't cause 100% financial shock is the best sales tool that DVC had.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

2 direct sales for VGC? That means a Disney took some back on ROFR? Interesting

 

[tjkraz]

2 direct sales for VGC? That means a Disney took some back on ROFR? Interesting

Or foreclosure

 

[Sandisw]

I do wonder, after two months of soft sales under 100K total, if that is the reason they put into play the BWV and other incentives the way they did? Maybe they are trying to see if that type of promotion does anything for it.

Interesting that AKV took over 2nd place from OKW...maybe because those resorts are so close in price direct that people went for the resort based on the resort vs. going for the least expensive...which seemed to be a pattern with SSR and OKW over the past 4 months for that second place spot.

IMO, I think that they are going to have to consider this when pricing VGF if that will go on sale in the next 3 to 4 months? Interesting info to come!

 

[heathjh]

My husband was just at Disneyland less than 2 weeks ago. None of the kiosks were staffed. He was wanting to talk to someone about direct while he was there. I was really surprised because we have always seen those kiosks staffed in the past.

 

[igrsod]

I do wonder, after two months of soft sales under 100K total, if that is the reason they put into play the BWV and other incentives the way they did? Maybe they are trying to see if that type of promotion does anything for it.

Interesting that AKV took over 2nd place from OKW...maybe because those resorts are so close in price direct that people went for the resort based on the resort vs. going for the least expensive...which seemed to be a pattern with SSR and OKW over the past 4 months for that second place spot.

IMO, I think that they are going to have to consider this when pricing VGF if that will go on sale in the next 3 to 4 months? Interesting info to come!

I was thinking the same. If those two resorts were close in price, I would choose AKL over OKW any day. Getting the 11 month advantage for value and/or concierge rooms is a big deal... and there's a Savannah in your backyard. How does OKW compete with that?

I think there are a lot of factors that have caused the slow sales, not the least of which are the decisions Disney has made as of late. It has caused me... a Disney addict, to take pause and reconsider how many times a year I go, what I'm going to spend and whether I would like more points. The incentives for buying direct DVC are really not there anymore for the average customer. And... with the resale restrictions on RIV, I would never buy there direct or resale. I hope Disney reevaluates their decisions and gives some thought to making the DVC product more attractive and affordable for the average family. Give more incentives for direct purchasers, allow a lower minimum buy in again (people will add on in the future... get them in the door), stop with the penalization of resale contracts.

 

[AvidDisReader]

If we use 65K as the average monthly sales amount, it will take 66 months to sell out RIV. Well DVC needs to continue to grow and needs cash flow if for no other reason to plan there next resort. So now the selling of GFV II makes total sense. Disney is counting on these points selling fast. I just hope they are not miss calculating the demand, you know like they miss calculated the appeal of RIV.