Demographic is changing Covid-19

[RamblingMad]

I'm just saying this has escalated from no gatherings of 100 or more, to no gatherings of 50 or more, to no gatherings of 10 or more, to don't even look at another guy at Home Depot.

It is called flattening, not stopping. It shouldn't take complete isolation and everything shut down to achieve flattening. A good percentage of people are going to get it and a good percentage will barely know they have it. I have no doubt that when this is all through they will say, well, we didn't need to go as far as we did, but now we know more for the next time.

Do the math. The US has 100 thousand ICU hospital beds. The US population is about 330 million. If half of the population gets it, that’s 165 million people. At least 10% of those people will require hospitalization. Let’s say that’s 16 million beds needed just for this outbreak. You need to spread it out as much as possible. You can’t let it surge because we don’t have the resources.

 

[sam_gordon]

I know where your thinking is coming from because I was thinking the same myself just a couple of days ago. The real issue we are dealing with though is how insanely unprepared our hospitals are. This is actually about stopping the curve as much as possible right now. We can flatten it later, but somehow, despite knowing this was coming for a matter of months, factories are just now being instructed to create protective equipment for doctors and nurses. We are paying now for the mistakes made in the past couple of months. The less we do now, the more sacrifices we will have to make in the coming weeks.

I understand where you're coming from, but any thoughts about "stopping" IMO, is totally unrealistic. And "stopping as much as possible" = "flattening". If it does get flattened enough, then medical facilities can keep up with cases.

 

[sam_gordon]

Do the math. The US has 100 thousand ICU hospital beds. The US population is about 330 million. If half of the population gets it, that’s 115 million people. At least 10% of those people will require hospitalization. Let’s say that’s 11 million beds needed just for this outbreak. You need to spread it out as much as possible. You can’t let it surge because we don’t have the resources.

Anyone know the average hospital stay time for someone w/covid19?

 

[Ben E N]

Anyone know the average hospital stay time for someone w/covid19?

2 weeks before they either die or mostly recover. For some, the lung damage can be so severe that the recovery is still ongoing, but that can be done outside of the ICU

 

[sam_gordon]

2 weeks before they either die or mostly recover. For some, the lung damage can be so severe that the recovery is still ongoing, but that can be done outside of the ICU

Is it still inpatient after the ICU or do they go home?

 

[luvsJack]

FWIW..still doesn't mean it's reliable. I haven't seen or heard of any research that supports the claims on the "news".

https://www.bbc.com/news/51929628

Actually 3 days ago, it was reported all over and WHO did recommend not taking it. I believe this may have changed. It’s hard to keep up since the news changes minute by minute.

 

[DisneyOma]

Do the math. The US has 100 thousand ICU hospital beds. The US population is about 330 million. If half of the population gets it, that’s 115 million people. At least 10% of those people will require hospitalization. Let’s say that’s 11 million beds needed just for this outbreak. You need to spread it out as much as possible. You can’t let it surge because we don’t have the resources.

11 million beds in the hospitals, or 11 million beds in ICU? Not all patients need ICU care with this, they just need monitoring, IV fluids, etc.

 

[RamblingMad]

11 million beds in the hospitals, or 11 million beds in ICU? Not all patients need ICU care with this, they just need monitoring, IV fluids, etc.

Around 2% of patients with this need the ICU, so what’s 2% of 165 million. I’m assuming only 50% get infected. We can end up much worse.

We have around 800 thousand hospital beds that aren’t ICU.

Now, you’re going to have people going to the hospital for things other than COVID-19, so I doubt half of the beds will be available.

 

[TLSnell1981]

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/51929628

Actually 3 days ago, it was reported all over and WHO did recommend not taking it. I believe this may have changed. It’s hard to keep up since the news changes minute by minute.

It was reported but WHO says..no scientific evidence and is not recommending against it.

 

[erc]

Do the math. The US has 100 thousand ICU hospital beds. The US population is about 330 million. If half of the population gets it, that’s 115 million people. At least 10% of those people will require hospitalization. Let’s say that’s 11 million beds needed just for this outbreak. You need to spread it out as much as possible. You can’t let it surge because we don’t have the resources.

Just to correct a minor math error. Half of 330 million is 165 million.

 

[RamblingMad]

Just to correct a minor math error. Half of 330 million is 165 million.

Good job.

 

[Imzadi]

Is it still inpatient after the ICU or do they go home?

Not, quite answering your question on being an inpatient, but the first confirmed Coronavirus case in NYC to contract the Coronavirus, was on March 1st, a female healthcare worker who got it in Iran. She was sent home to self-quarantine. She is finally over the Coronavirus. She was retested yesterday and she shows absolutely no Coronavirus in her system. The CDC said that info is important to figure out how long it stays in the body. They have not determined however, if that means one can contract it again, or if they are now immune.

 

[PlainJane]

I literally just did a final Home Depot run before they shut it down tomorrow and was shocked by how many people, mostly 40 to 60 year old males, were on top of one another. I'm going to the stores assuming everyone is sick and here these people were lined up at the paint counter like they were at Disney World. I don't think the virus has made it's way to our town yet, but clearly the people at the store didn't mind chancing it. I can see why it is being forcibly shut down now.

I basically begged my father to order what he needed from there online. He was quite annoyed to not get his veterans’ discount, but he humored me.

I know where your thinking is coming from because I was thinking the same myself just a couple of days ago. The real issue we are dealing with though is how insanely unprepared our hospitals are. This is actually about stopping the curve as much as possible right now. We can flatten it later, but somehow, despite knowing this was coming for a matter of months, factories are just now being instructed to create protective equipment for doctors and nurses. We are paying now for the mistakes made in the past couple of months. The less we do now, the more sacrifices we will have to make in the coming weeks.

What really gets me is the thought of my parents dying alone, in pain, struggling to breath. Nurses too busy to stop and sit with them. They have a good chance if we don’t have to start rationing care, but I know a hospital is going to pick a 45 year old over them if there’s only one respirator left.

 

[anotherfakename]

This - and I think the media is hyping it as a way to try to make younger people take it seriously. I work at a college and I had to break up a 100+ person party over the weekend - as we were shutting down and students were supposed to be leaving campus. Many of my students were still planning to go on their spring break trips and could not fathom why I would be telling them not to.

I have a husband who is an ER doctor and the really sick young people (and there have only been a few) he’s seeing are people who were long-term smokers or vapers, or people with co-existing medical conditions. They are choosing NOT to publicize that info because they do not want anything that detracts from the seriousness of the “stay home” message.

The bigger problem has been people panicking and coming in for testing when they are asymptomatic or have very, very mild symptoms. They are burning through all their PPE only to tell people “You need no treatment. Go home, take Tylenol, sleep, quarantine.” I think people expect something more but the average person is still passing through Covid-19 much like a case of the flu. Again, they are not discussing that because they want people to isolate.

I have had chills, diarrhea,fever and shortness of breath for two days but I am functione told me not to bother getting tested, and we are married!

EDIT: We are not even going crazy sterilizing the house, given children statistically do well. Common sense hand washing and Lysol-ing but he’s working and I am sick. There’s no one to do it!

I don’t want to minimize the seriousness of the situation. The best course of action is to assume everyone has it, at this point. But I do think they are emphasizing certain aspects of it to encourage people to take it seriously and stay home.

 

[luvsJack]

Our nephew’s baby has been tested and the family quarantined. She tested negative for strep and flu.
Her mom works at the hospital and she stays with her grandparents during the day, normally.

The fact is that children and babies are less likely to get seriously ill but they aren’t immune to it or getting very ill or have lasting effects.

And the younger generation that thinks they are safe and just ignore the pleads to stay gone and out of groups simply are not helping the problem.

Personally, I think the best thing everyone could do is listen to experts and news sources that they can trust and stop trying to figure out “why” they are telling us or what their motive is. Because honestly, all that does is start the conspiracy theories and increases the numbers of people who do not listen.

 

[Ben E N]

Personally, I think the best thing everyone could do is listen to experts and news sources that they can trust and stop trying to figure out “why” they are telling us or what their motive is.

I think this is a big part of our current problem. We have been specifically told to not trust the media, even as recently as two days ago. People are forced to decide on a "side" to take. One saying that it is really not bad and that you can go to work while sick with it and still get better, and another that says we need to completely shut things down for everybody. By providing that first option, people can still live their normal lives and think they are doing the right thing, even though they are obviously risking spreading and getting sick from the virus.

 

[luvsJack]

I think this is a big part of our current problem. We have been specifically told to not trust the media, even as recently as two days ago. People are forced to decide on a "side" to take. One saying that it is really not bad and that you can go to work while sick with it and still get better, and another that says we need to completely shut things down for everybody. By providing that first option, people can still live their normal lives and think they are doing the right thing, even though they are obviously risking spreading and getting sick from the virus.

Who said it was ok to go to work sick? Every news source I have listened to from the beginning has said the opposite.

And the fact is that right now, the big news providers and ALL of our state/local sources are saying the same thing—stay home! As of yesterday, at least 4 towns in this state have basically shut down. But any trickle of new information (like younger people getting sick) and out come the speculations on why they are now telling us this. A couple of those and the tin foil hats soon follow. That’s just not helpful.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Personally, I think the best thing everyone could do is listen to experts and news sources that they can trust and stop trying to figure out “why” they are telling us or what their motive is. Because honestly, all that does is start the conspiracy theories and increases the numbers of people who do not listen.

The narrative changes daily even hourly. By narrative I mean what we're supposed to do, how long we're supposed to do it for, best practices, where we can get food, etc.

One day my city is saying one thing, the county a different the whole state the next. The state next to me doing things differently and at a different pace than my state.

Who is being told what is def. varying. People do have to abide by their local governments more because they are the ones directly in control. If the Fed government mandates things that usually supercedes local governments for the purpose of what we're talking about. But general advice at the Fed level and things being done at your local level can totally vary.

I think people keep harping at "if you would just listen"..but who should your average everyday person supposed to listen to? That's a rhetorical question. It's just food for thought.

 

[billlaurie]

I think the demographic will change drastically when it starts hitting the homeless population. Seattle, California, NYC, the hardest hit areas also have the highest rates of homelessness. I know I read of one case last week of a homeless person dying in CA. On the west coast, sadly this is a a young population due to drug use and mental illness, and they are particularly vulnerable to succumbing to this disease.

 

[Ben E N]

Who said it was ok to go to work sick? Every news source I have listened to from the beginning has said the opposite.

I don't want to list the exact source, as it would not be following board rules, but it is the same person who tried to present this whole thing as a hoax less than a month ago, and who tries to tell people to not listen to the "fake news". I think most people have started to ignore this particular source, but it has taken a lot of cleaning up. Had this been taken seriously by all at first, things may have been different today.