DEBATE: Back in 1972...

[Bob O]

Great post DVC LB!!!!
And i agree with Europa in that Walt went for loyalty of his guests and not milking them dry like M$E has decided to do and while he has done so he is giving us a diminshed product, be it the theme park experience or resort experience. And now that he has milked his guests "dry" he is getting less people coming and also i believe less brand loyalty because he has taken advantage of them and more and more people are realizing it.
And i couldnt agree more with the statment from hopemax that was quoted by DVC. I think that counts alot for the downturn for disney, as well as all of the cutbacks they have made and the inability to add much new to the theme parks.
I think this all shows that bigger isnt better and disney would be alot better off with less hotels rooms(i NEVER wouldnt have built any value hotels) and one less theme park. The moderates that they do have should have been built to the same quality/amenities as the Poly/Contemp. and they never should have bui;lt glorified motel 6 type hotels on their property with a disney name in front of it.

 

[DVC-Landbaron]

Originally posted by Bob O
Great post DVC LB!!!!

Thank you, Bob!!

I wasn't sure when I wrote it, but shortly after posting I knew had to be one of the better ones. One of the ones that finally made sense, even to the opposition.

Why? Whenever I can shut up Mr. Kidds, I KNOW I have a winner!!!
















Did he just cast a line in the water?

 

[Bstanley]

Herr Baron, (just defending my veracity)

Culver City is a city not a place - it is in the LA area near Hollywood, perhaps just down the street from The Disney Studios? That's why I chose it anyway.

Don't know the name of the restaurant, but from the look of the menu (these are .JPG images of menu pages and the name wasn't on the menu) I would say the restaurant was a sort of classic diner kinda place.

The Prime Rib price was from a place called 'Waldos' in Beverly Hills.

Different subject:

I for one missed the historical pricing discussion last year - any chance it's still on the server Moderator dudes and dudettes?

 

[DisneyKidds]

Originally posted by DVC-Landbaron
Thank you, Bob!!

I wasn't sure when I wrote it, but shortly after posting I knew had to be one of the better ones. One of the ones that finally made sense, even to the opposition.

Why? Whenever I can shut up Mr. Kidds, I KNOW I have a winner!!!

Sorry Mr. Baron - sometimes things are so tangled up they aren't worth straightening out . Anywho...........I want to talk about things, or aspects and angles of things, that we (I, at least) haven't covered.

To that end................

I for one missed the historical pricing discussion last year - any chance it's still on the server Moderator dudes and dudettes?

Is it? Is it? Huh? Huh?

From a few of Mr. Curlings recent posts I'm going to guess that he didn't quite agree with Baron's conclusions regarding that particular exercise. Not that Yoho is not a wonderfully intelligent individual, but I am leary of accepted a result he produced at this point. I should have been born in Missouri - you just have to show me .

 

[raidermatt]

I should have been born in Missouri - you just have to show me

Interesting comment, considering your faith in Disney at least partially returning to what truly makes it tick, despite little or no proof from current management (or the board) to back it up....

 

[DisneyKidds]

Originally posted by raidermatt
Interesting comment, considering your faith in Disney at least partially returning to what truly makes it tick, despite little or no proof from current management (or the board) to back it up....

So the man from Oakland thinks he is clever . Well, Disney will have to show me before I declare they have returned. They will get there, eventually. It is called P-A-T-I-E-N-C-E my friend. We do have some baby steps - and I am willing to wait for more (not because that is good or acceptable, but I really have no choice).

 

[hopemax]

This is especially difficult when people are openly willing to dismiss certain things (like a new parade where one did not previously exist) as not constituting proof that the guest is getting more value.

The problem is. Take MGM-Studios. The first parade was Aladdin's Royal Caravan in 1992, which was replaced by Toy Story in 1995, Hercules in 1997, Mulan in 1998 which ran until March 2001. The Parade of Stars debuted Oct. 2001. The number of guests who visited during the 7 months where there was no parade is small compared to the number of guests who visited between 1992-2001. And since the majority of guests DON'T return on a yearly basis, the number of guests who visited for the first time during the "parade blackout" (the ones who would see added value) and have returned to experience Parade of Stars is even smaller!

Since attractions/parades, like cars, depreciate. A new parade does add some value. But it does not have nearly the same impact as when Aladdin's Royal Caravan was added in 1992. Same as how getting your first car has a much bigger impact on your life then replacing a 1995 car with a 2001 model. And frankly, I expect Disney to update things like parades, in the same vein that I expect to have to take my car for oil changes or tune ups and get new tires. It comes with the territory.

DH is taking the car for 30,000 maintence check next week, I'll have to remember to make a big deal since he's adding wonderful value to our car, more if we have to replace belts, hoses or other things.

Seriously though, a sign that things are turning around will be when management acts like doing things like updating parades comes with the territory of running a world-class theme park. They're things that should be done without expectation of huge accolades. Replacing tires is not a reason to invite the guys. Installing a new top-of-the-line sound system when you used to only get AM radio, where's the beer & pizza?

 

[DisneyKidds]

OK folks, I completed homework project number 1. I researched the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. These are the guys that develop the CPI. I generated a custom table for the Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers - Other Lodging Away From Home Including Hotels and Motels. Using the statistics I generated an inflation calculator specific to hotels and motels. As my control, I generated a report for the CPI - All Urban Consumers - All Items. This is the same information that the inflation calculators you will find on the internet are based on. I generated an inflation calculator off of that data that provides results consistent with the inflation calculators on the internet. What does that prove you ask? Well, it shows my math and logic are correct and that I developed a valid hotel and motel inflation calculator.

Plopping the 1972 Poly rates of $29, $36, and $44 into this hotel/motel specific inflation calculator we get (drum roll please)................................................................................................................2002 rates of $208, $258, and $315. Still slightly lower than todays Poly rack rates, but I still want to test whether these 1972 rates were comparable to rack, or were they discounted in any way or for any reason. However, these rates are fairly consistent with Contemporary rates. These rates are a very good bit below what just about anybody has paid for the Poly, and especially the Contemporary, over the past two years. Lets find those historical annual Poly rates and we can complete the analysis.

FYI. The general CPI varied, from 1973 to 2002, between 1.56% and 13.50%. The lodging index varies from .63% to 15.48%. The 2002 rate is based on 8 months of data. Obviously there are great swings. Some years hotel inflation is less than the general CPI, but most it is more. It will be interesting to compare these swings to the the years in which Baron says there were large jumps in the Poly rates.

If anyone wants a copy of the calculator let me know and I can email it to you .

 

[DisneyKidds]

Hope.......

Seriously though, a sign that things are turning around will be when management acts like doing things like updating parades comes with the territory of running a world-class theme park.

Continuing with your parade theme, your data shows that Disney was doing just what you would expect right up through March of 2001. We have settled on 2001 and 2002 (at least) as being the doom and gloom years. Prior to that there may have been philosophical issues, but Disney was doing what Disney should do - keeping things fresh, updating, etc. Not for accolades, but because that is what comes with the territory. I happen to think we will return to that, but I have nothing to show someone from Missouri to prove it. Oh, well................

 

[hopemax]

$208, $258, and $315

Slightly? Since the Poly 1972 rates only had one season, I don't feel comfortable comparing them to the value rate, so I used 2002 regular season rates.

$334, $420, $425, $510

However, if the 1972 were a "discounted" rate then comparing to value rates would act to level the playing field.

$299, $375, $380, $460

30%-40% above, so DK what is your definition of slightly? Mine would probably be <10%

 

[hopemax]

Continuing with your parade theme, your data shows that Disney was doing just what you would expect right up through March of 2001.

At least in the category of "Parades at the Disney-MGM studios." Other places...

 

[DisneyKidds]

Hope - All we can say for sure right now is that it is absurd to make the argument that $125, $156, and $190 should be the current rates (although you can get most of the deluxe resorts for these amounts today - what a value that is!!! ). There is still work to be done....................

As for comparisons, I'd compare to value season rates. As the Baron will point out, back then EVERY SEASON WAS VALUE SEASON!!!!!! . If the 1972 rates we see are 'discounted' it may be more appropriate to compare the lodging inflated rates to DC type rates, maybe even code rates. It is too soon to make those judgements though.

 

[Bob O]

I agree that their is LITTLE to NO EVIDENCE that the current management has any idea what ut takes to get the park back to its former glory.
So are we too reward disney that they are bringing back EE in a reduced form when they just recently cut it??? Now if they expanded it to 2-3 hrs, that would be a real improvement.
So are we too be impressed that they changed parades so they can increase snowglobe sales???
For me disney would have to add a slew of e and lower type attractions to their theme parks to show they are back on the right track. And also INCREASE the park hours at all times of the years!! While MIS will be a nice addition it in no way signals any turn around for the theme parks. And yes if alot more isnt added then MIS is a aberation, paid for by corporate sponsors by a company unwilling to pay for any improvements on their own.
PS-spinning carnival rides arent e type attractions.

 

[hopemax]

For an example of where Disney started slacking. (By the way WDW - Year by Year Journey, great reference book)

Magic Kingdom Parades

2001 - Magic Moments
1996 - 25th anniversary "Remember the Magic"
1994 - Mickey Mania
1991 - Surprise Celebration and Spectromagic
1989 - Character Hit Parade
1988 - Mickey's All American Birthday
1986 - WDW 15th anniversary
1984 - Donald's 50th
1983 - Addition of Christmas Parade
1981 - Tencentenial
1978 - Mickey's 50th Birthday
1977 - Main Street Electrical Parade
1975 - America on Parade
1972 - Addition of Easter Parade


Looks to me like every 2-3 years a new parade debuted, but it took 5 years the last time.

 

[raidermatt]

I mean "no" evidence that the current WDW management is adding to the guest experience is obviously incorrect. Heck, at the minimum, they were able to get EE back. So, I suppose "no" is out of the discussion.

That's too narrow a view, Scoop. At the same time this happened, CC and Hunchback were cut. We have to look at the NET of what happens (this is critical, for when I talk about "Disney" or "management", I'm talking about their NET decisions. It doesn't mean there aren't some well-meaning folks on the team, only that for me, the guest, its doesn't matter because they lose more than they win).

My point is that, other than general philosophies, I've still yet to hear from many what constitutes proof that the pendulum is swinging back in favor of the guest.

I've constantly referred to things like closing times, EE, shows, parades and attractions, so I'm not sure why you would say this... Its the net of things like this that constitute improvement or depreciation.

This is especially difficult when people are openly willing to dismiss certain things (like a new parade where one did not previously exist) as not constituting proof that the guest is getting more value.

Sure, JJP added value based on what AK offered before. No arguement here. But was it really meant to be a "plus", or was it added because of AK's disappointing performance? If it was meant to be a "plus", why was there no parade for 3 years at AK?

Regardless of our opinions of AK, the public at-large found it disappointing and the result was disappointing attendance. I guess I can give Disney some credit for recognizing that SOMETHING had to be added, but is that really worthy of your idea of the Disney standard?

Did JJP signal that the philosophy changed, or that they were still using the "give them as little as possible" approach, and then needed JJP to fulfill that?


Hey, if M:S is a great attraction, it WILL move the pendulum in the right direction. But whether its an anomoly or a trend can, by definition, only be determined by examining the big picture. The big picture include parades (ToD was recently scaled back...), entertainment, other new attractions, adds vs. replacements, hours, EE, and even MHB. (granted, some things carry more weight than others )

 

[hopemax]

Sure, JJP added value based on what AK offered before. No arguement here. But was it really meant to be a "plus", or was it added because of AK's disappointing performance? If it was meant to be a "plus", why was there no parade for 3 years at AK?

For the record it was 2 years. Animal Kingdom's first year included the "March of the ARTimals" parade. I think it was June 1999 that it ended.

 

[raidermatt]

For the record it was 2 years. Animal Kingdom's first year included the "March of the ARTimals" parade. I think it was June 1999 that it ended.

Thanks for correcting my error...

 

[raidermatt]

We do have some baby steps

I think this maybe the heart of our disagreement on this... I do see some plusses, but to me, the minuses still outweigh them. Or at best its a wash.

Even a year ago there were some adds, like CC, and, well, CC.

I see a slowing of the slope or pendulum, or whatever its called, but that's about it. And it has to stop sometime... they can't close MK at Noon...

Still, we could see some fluctuations given the current philosophy. Changes will be made based on economic conditions and what's perceived as a necessity (i.e, "nobody is showing up, so we'd better give 'em Spectro"). The problem is that same philosophy results in cuts at the same time, wherever they think they can get away with it.

Things are not going to get consistently better for guests until there is a change in philosophy. And consequently, the parks will not achieve the financial results they are capable of.

 

[DVC-Landbaron]

No preamble today, I have to explain to Mr. Kidds that this father of five DOES understand and respect kids in another thread! So let’s just dive in!!

Scoop!! You make me laugh!!

I mean "no" evidence that the current WDW management is adding to the guest experience is obviously incorrect. Heck, at the minimum, they were able to get EE back.

So they give back a portion of what they took away and this is evidence that they are ‘adding’ to the guest experience! Now that’s pretty good lawyer-ing!! And it IS pretty funny!!!

So, I suppose "no" is out of the discussion.

Yes! I so stipulate.

Then we are stuck with "little proof". What constitutes more than "a little"? At what point do additions, returns, etc. begin to evidence that current WDW management is making the WDW guest experience better and more valuable.

This is an interesting question!! I like it a lot!! It is worthy of it’s own thread. It would be a very subjective thread, of course, but very, very interesting to hear everyone’s take on the subject.

My point is that, other than general philosophies, I've still yet to hear from many what constitutes proof that the pendulum is swinging back in favor of the guest.

Scoop. In all seriousness, what else do you need other than philosophy.

Does it mean that a new parade automatically has no value? I mean that seems quite harsh.

No! Of course not! I’ve already stipulated! But, in the grand scheme of ‘Disney’ things it does have little value. Parades, to me at least, are nothing more than plusses. A big plus sometimes, as in the Electric Light Parade, but still, at the end of the day, nothing more than a plus.

In the end, I wonder what will happen if Mission:Space is indeed an wonderful attraction. Will the refrain be that that is a sign that current WDW management is giving back to the guest in large amounts or will it simply be argued that M:S is an aberration or an exception.

That depends. What is the current philosophy? Cause that’s really all that matters. It could be an aberration or it could be an anomaly or it could be that Ei$ner has seen the light and swears off the Disney® philosophy in favor of giving the guest a true “Walt Disney” experience. What do you think the underlying explanation could be? Or should we not think about motivations and philosophy and just blindly accept what Disney “gives” us?

Now I have a question for you:

In the end, I wonder what will happen if Mission:Space is indeed a glorified spinner. Will the refrain be that that is a sign that current WDW management is NOT giving back to the guest in large amounts or will it simply be argued that M:S is an aberration or an exception?

I await your response!

Hopemax, you are GREAT!!

Seriously though, a sign that things are turning around will be when management acts like doing things like updating parades comes with the territory of running a world-class theme park. They're things that should be done without expectation of huge accolades.

How nicely put!!

Mr. Kidds. Or Hopemax (And all researchers in general) Could you please explore a subject for the group? I was wondering what the normal cost of a Holiday Inn was back in 1972. Cause according to Bstanley Disney was charging ‘diner’ prices. Now a lot is still unknown. But I would like to explore this issue a bit. And since we cannot agree on the right calculator (or at least how to implement it (I’ll leave it to Hopemax and Mr. Kidds to thrash out the details, though I’m leaning toward Hope!!)), maybe some relative comparisons would be in order. It’s just a suggestion, nothing I’m married to or anything. But perhaps this would increase all of our understanding a bit.

Continuing with your parade theme, your data shows that Disney was doing just what you would expect right up through March of 2001. We have settled on 2001 and 2002 (at least) as being the doom and gloom years.

I have yet to see ANYONE agree to this, though you keep saying it!!

Prior to that there may have been philosophical issues, but Disney was doing what Disney should do - keeping things fresh, updating, etc.

Oh my God!! You haven’t ever been to WDWBLUES, have you? Or Mouseplanet? Or what about reading Jim Hill’s wonderful stuff? No, my friend, they were most definitely NOT ‘keeping things fresh’ or ‘updating’ and especially not doing any ‘etc.’!!!! Your “Disney” education is still not complete, grasshopper!!!!

As for comparisons, I'd compare to value season rates. As the Baron will point out, back then EVERY SEASON WAS VALUE SEASON!!!!!!

That’s absolutely ridiculous!! Hope is right, and you know it!!

 

[airlarry!]

As for comparisons, I'd compare to value season rates. As the Baron will point out, back then EVERY SEASON WAS VALUE SEASON!!!!!!

Baron, I think this was a double entendre. I think he was picking on your refrain of back in the day, Disney's philosophy was value so every season was a value season....

I think...