I really thought long and hard about this, being a "soon to be" new owner.
I did the math several different ways. Ultimately, I made an offer for resale points that was accepted, and is at DVC for ROFR now.
My feeling is that this is an opportunistic moment in time for buying resale, and may not last terribly long. But that is tempered by the resort we want to stay at (OKW), and desire to finance (paying cash).
Were those circumstances different, I would have bought direct. And if I can't get through ROFR at a reasonable price difference, anything is possible. With a UY locked in, my resale choices will be a bit more limited moving forward, so I want my first contract to be a good one.
I'm viewing this purely as a way to get the vacations my family wants, not an investment. Kind of like buying a car. Why be burdened by (likely) unmet expectations?