Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

This is absolutely why I know it will do well long term. That and that California kind of money. Especially if interest rates decrease again; you KNOW people will refinance and buy themselves a little slice of Disneyland.

Never thought about my VGC points this way before. Excited to discover I own “a little slice of Disneyland.”

Seriously though, I think people are underestimating the downside of single resort resale, not being able to get into VGC ever, the inferior location of VDH (along with increased ToT cost, and maybe higher dues?)— most importantly, the DLR resorts are both extremely difficult to get into at/inside 7mo, and it makes single resort use risky. I think it would be crazy to buy restricted resale within $100 per point of what you can buy it (or other DVC resorts) for direct... but perhaps the value is there for people who can reliably plan 11 months in advance?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Never thought about my VGC points this way before. Excited to discover I own “a little slice of Disneyland.”

Seriously though, I think people are underestimating the downside of single resort resale, not being able to get into VGC ever, the inferior location of VDH (along with increased ToT cost, and maybe higher dues?)— most importantly, the DLR resorts are both extremely difficult to get into at/inside 7mo, and it makes single resort use risky. I think it would be crazy to buy restricted resale within $100 per point of what you can buy it (or other DVC resorts) for direct... but perhaps the value is there for people who can reliably plan 11 months in advance?

We bought VDH because VGC is so hard to get into. If VDH didn't have alot of studios we wouldn't have boughten. Although we prefer 1 bed and above studios make so much more sense point wise for short trips and VGC is so hard to get. I really hope DL forward helps VDH shine.

 

[Girlstar30]

Ok so what happens if you buy restricted let's say Riviera and you can't book a reservation at the 11 month window for when you can go. Is that just it and you lose your points if theyve already been banked once? Pretty crappy thought. I know I'm new but even i wasn't able to book my actually birthday during the home resort priority because of Rundisney. This would be a huge concern for me.

The reason I changed my mind about these resale restricted contracts keeping their value is because we're already seeing quite a drop. I didnt think I would see Riv at $100 pp this fast.

And yes it could stabilize once sold out, but people are going to want access to more hotels especially seeing that new ones are being built and theyre going to be blocked out of those too. That's already bummed me out when I have a ton of other hotels to choose from.

BCV and BWV that only have 18 years left sell more than Riv right now, a resort that should be in the same league as VGF and PVB as someone else said. It being sold for $50 less pp is a good indication of people's sentiments toward resale, that's pretty significant. I am in the camp that it will reach SSR price level too.

Tbh I don't really envision myself keeping these contracts for 45 years until I'm 85 years old. I don't think the longer contract would help boost the resale value if anything I think, do I really want to stay In the same hotel for the rest of my life? Not only that, but the high point chart makes it so i have to buy more than just a small contract to stay there for a week, so much for adding on a small contract. I don't know, I just really wish I would have bought 10 years ago

 

[davidhr]

Ok so what happens if you buy restricted let's say Riviera and you can't book a reservation at the 11 month window for when you can go. Is that just it and you lose your points if theyve already been banked once? Pretty crappy thought. I know I'm new but even i wasn't able to book my actually birthday during the home resort priority because of Rundisney. This would be a huge concern for me.

The reason I changed my mind about these resale restricted contracts keeping their value is because we're already seeing quite a drop. I didnt think I would see Riv at $100 pp this fast.

And yes it could stabilize once sold out, but people are going to want access to more hotels especially seeing that new ones are being built and theyre going to be blocked out of those too. That's already bummed me out when I have a ton of other hotels to choose from.

BCV and BWV that only have 18 years left sell more than Riv right now, a resort that should be in the same league as VGF and PVB as someone else said. It being sold for $50 less pp is a good indication of people's sentiments toward resale, that's pretty significant. I am in the camp that it will reach SSR price level too.

Tbh I don't really envision myself keeping these contracts for 45 years until I'm 85 years old. I don't think the longer contract would help boost the resale value if anything I think, do I really want to stay In the same hotel for the rest of my life? Not only that, but the high point chart makes it so i have to buy more than just a small contract to stay there for a week, so much for adding on a small contract. I don't know, I just really wish I would have bought 10 years ago

If you’re not flexible and can only book Standard/Tower Studios, yes. You’ll have a hard time. I personally have never seen preferred fully booked at 11 months out.

What I’m saying is 99.9% of the time there will be a room available. It might not be the room you want, but there will be one.

 

[cruisehopeful]

Ok so what happens if you buy restricted let's say Riviera and you can't book a reservation at the 11 month window for when you can go. Is that just it and you lose your points if theyve already been banked once? Pretty crappy thought. I know I'm new but even i wasn't able to book my actually birthday during the home resort priority because of Rundisney. This would be a huge concern for me.

This is exactly why I won't buy a restricted resale resort. Even if I book at 11 months out, what happens if 2 months before the stay we have to cancel/rebook? There might not be any inventory for that. I have bought VDH direct and might add on there direct, but I wouldn't buy it on the resale market. My life has been too unpredictable.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Ok so what happens if you buy restricted let's say Riviera and you can't book a reservation at the 11 month window for when you can go. Is that just it and you lose your points if theyve already been banked once? Pretty crappy thought. I know I'm new but even i wasn't able to book my actually birthday during the home resort priority because of Rundisney. This would be a huge concern for me.

The reason I changed my mind about these resale restricted contracts keeping their value is because we're already seeing quite a drop. I didnt think I would see Riv at $100 pp this fast.

And yes it could stabilize once sold out, but people are going to want access to more hotels especially seeing that new ones are being built and theyre going to be blocked out of those too. That's already bummed me out when I have a ton of other hotels to choose from.

BCV and BWV that only have 18 years left sell more than Riv right now, a resort that should be in the same league as VGF and PVB as someone else said. It being sold for $50 less pp is a good indication of people's sentiments toward resale, that's pretty significant. I am in the camp that it will reach SSR price level too.

Tbh I don't really envision myself keeping these contracts for 45 years until I'm 85 years old. I don't think the longer contract would help boost the resale value if anything I think, do I really want to stay In the same hotel for the rest of my life? Not only that, but the high point chart makes it so i have to buy more than just a small contract to stay there for a week, so much for adding on a small contract. I don't know, I just really wish I would have bought 10 years ago

DLR is a whole different animal than WDW and they cant really be compared for various reasons. If you cant get into VDH for your birthday then you 100% aren't getting into VGC either. So I wouldn't want a lot of resale points at VDH thats for sure just enough to guarantee 1 or 2 trips.

 

[supercarrie]

This is exactly why I won't buy a restricted resale resort. Even if I book at 11 months out, what happens if 2 months before the stay we have to cancel/rebook? There might not be any inventory for that. I have bought VDH direct and might add on there direct, but I wouldn't buy it on the resale market. My life has been too unpredictable.

You would rent the confirmed reservation out, or cancel the stay and bank the points (if early in your UY).

Personally, if I ever were to buy RIV or other restricted points on the resale market, I'd make sure my stays were planned early in my UY, and be comfortable with renting the reservation out if needed. I also would only buy them if I was very flexible in my travel dates.

Back to the availability issue, one reason we bought a favorite week contract is that if we ever go to resell it, the next owner will have that week guaranteed. (And we will have a resort view guaranteed, once the resort is fully sold out.)

FWs don't appear to gather a premium on the resale market now, but I could see them going for a small premium in the future.

 

[Girlstar30]

This is exactly why I won't buy a restricted resale resort. Even if I book at 11 months out, what happens if 2 months before the stay we have to cancel/rebook? There might not be any inventory for that. I have bought VDH direct and might add on there direct, but I wouldn't buy it on the resale market. My life has been too unpredictable.

I've never even thought of this and you're absolutely right in this situation i would feel more comfortable paying more and buying direct if i really loved these restricted hotels.

Good lord I feel like I make points all the time then argue with myself about why im wrong, DVC gives me a headache

 

[Girlstar30]

You would rent the confirmed reservation out, or cancel the stay and bank the points (if early in your UY).

Personally, if I ever were to buy RIV or other restricted points on the resale market, I'd make sure my stays were planned early in my UY, and be comfortable with renting the reservation out if needed. I also would only buy them if I was very flexible in my travel dates.

Back to the availability issue, one reason we bought a favorite week contract is that if we ever go to resell it, the next owner will have that week guaranteed. (And we will have a resort view guaranteed, once the resort is fully sold out.)

FWs don't appear to gather a premium on the resale market now, but I could see them going for a small premium in the future.

These are all really good points to consider

 

[Girlstar30]

I have concluded that FOR NOW i think resale is the better deal and I am happy with my choice.

For the future we will see what they do.

Maybe I luck out and they do a points wash and the price isn't so bad, maybe all these new cool resorts come out and I kick myself and end up selling, maybe I don't like the new resorts and the points chart are too high and I dont want to stay there anyways or maybe I get hit by a bus and never get to go at all (please don't happen )

 

[VGCgroupie]

I have concluded that FOR NOW i think resale is the better deal and I am happy with my choice.

For the future we will see what they do.

Maybe I luck out and they do a points wash and the price isn't so bad, maybe all these new cool resorts come out and I kick myself and end up selling, maybe I don't like the new resorts and the points chart are too high and I dont want to stay there anyways or maybe I get hit by a bus and never get to go at all (please don't happen )

Just wait til they drop some good incentives then the FOMO will takeover and you wont be able to say no.

 

[Girlstar30]

Just wait til they drop some good incentives then the FOMO will takeover and you wont be able to say no.

I literally just thought that right before I saw this lmaooo. I think what made the 250 pt SSR choice easy right now is because the direct incentives and price right now blows in comparison with the dropping resale market

 

[VGCgroupie]

I literally just thought that right before I saw this lmaooo. I think what made the 250 pt SSR choice easy right now is because the incentives and price right now blows in comparison with the dropping resale market

I was on the fence running numbers etc etc. Then they dropped the $1000 Visa incentive for the first time on top regular incentives and I was sold! I bought 200 points. Then the next incentive dropped and were so crappy that made me add 100 more points since I could still qualify for the original incentive.

 

[Girlstar30]

I was on the fence running numbers etc etc. Then they dropped the $1000 Visa incentive for the first time on top regular incentives and I was sold! I bought 200 points. Then the next incentive dropped and were so crappy that made me add 100 more points since I could still qualify for the original incentive.

I'm really curious to see if in three days they are even worse lol

 

[Sandisw]

I've never even thought of this and you're absolutely right in this situation i would feel more comfortable paying more and buying direct if i really loved these restricted hotels.

Good lord I feel like I make points all the time then argue with myself about why im wrong, DVC gives me a headache

There is definitely cons to owning a restricted resort and anyone considering it needs to consider that

But use the 2 month example. While the odds are greater for RIV, it can happen with others too.

Those of us who have resale RiV do have to book at 11 months to have as many options as possible. I have never seen something not be available.

We should also buy a strategic UY so we have time to rebook if we have to cancel.

I had that happen when my dad passed away. Had to cancel…they were generous and put my borrowed points back but they couldn’t do anything with my banked points.

So, I ended up doing one night in a GV at RIV because that was available during my next trip and freed to my other points that we were using for a CCV cabin.

Obviously not everyone wants the risk but those of us who have bought understood them so it’s not an issue.

 

[Tatebeck]

There is definitely cons to owning a restricted resort and anyone considering it needs to consider that

But use the 2 month example. While the odds are greater for RIV, it can happen with others too.

Those of us who have resale RiV do have to book at 11 months to have as many options as possible. I have never seen something not be available.

We should also buy a strategic UY so we have time to rebook if we have to cancel.

I had that happen when my dad passed away. Had to cancel…they were generous and put my borrowed points back but they couldn’t do anything with my banked points.

So, I ended up doing one night in a GV at RIV because that was available during my next trip and freed to my other points that we were using for a CCV cabin.

Obviously not everyone wants the risk but those of us who have bought understood them so it’s not an issue.

That's nice they at least put the borrowed points back for you. Are there ever any reasons that they maybe can double bank your points for another year or is it always a 100% no?

And yeah I could see myself adding a small resale RIV contract eventually. Especially if I don't buy any more direct points and they keep allowing annual passes to be paid with points. The restricted resorts resale points seem much more flexible when you pair them with direct points at the same resort. You can use up the resale points with banking and borrowing when you are sure you want to be at that resort, then free up direct points for a later stay or a 7 month swap at newer resorts or to pay for annual passes right now.

 

[Sandisw]

That's nice they at least put the borrowed points back for you. Are there ever any reasons that they maybe can double bank your points for another year or is it always a 100% no?

And yeah I could see myself adding a small resale RIV contract eventually. Especially if I don't buy any more direct points and they keep allowing annual passes to be paid with points. The restricted resorts resale points seem much more flexible when you pair them with direct points at the same resort. You can use up the resale points with banking and borrowing when you are sure you want to be at that resort, then free up direct points for a later stay or a 7 month swap at newer resorts or to pay for annual passes right now.

Definitely can’t do that because of the way the system is set up.

That is why during the closure in 2020, DVC actually gave owners their own points…many were from RIV…who lost banked points during the closure…and for a few months beyond.

None of us are guaranteed that the room size, or dates we want will be available when we go to book and the loss of points could happen.

It’s just that those of us with restricted points for one resort have to realize we have to be more flexible than if we did have back ups at 7 months.

And, if there ever became a real issue, DVC could extend the RIV home resort window…and prevent trades in until a few months later…ie: instead of 11 and 7. It could be 11 and 5 instead.

Personally, I don’t ever seeing the resale to direct ratio ever getting bad enough for that to happen.

 

[Cfabar1]

As I’ve said in the past, I think Riviera eventually settles around wherever SSR is trading at the time, and VB goes sub $30, those seem likely to happen this year.

Agreed, and I see both as wonderful opportunities....

I have placed several VB offers in the $20-30 range... for points to use at VB.... so far no one is biting, but they will soon!

 

[Cfabar1]

RIV will stay above the bottom tier of DVC both because of the quality of resort and the contract length. Heck we are 1-2 years out and SSR will have higher MFs and OKW is already more expensive by like $2/point (this is where SSR is going because of all the individual buildings).

That's true, but the points chart erases much of the disparity in practice.

RIV going down means OKW/SSR are going to be that much further reduced.

Not sure I see it that way...

All things being equal I'd rather own OKW than RIV...

That said, for the right price RIV is very appealing to me despite all the limitations....