Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[Cfabar1]

Maybe now is the time to panic sell contracts!

 

[maui22]

I was going through county deeds today and couldn’t figure out why so many were from mid-February. (Two months ago). It dawned on me, county deeds showing up recently are likely from purchases after the new incentives were announced on Feb. 11. This was the first time PVB included the buyback option.

Good indication that monthly county sales data will not reflect everything that has happened since April 2.

Makes me more curious what Disney and the resales brokers are seeing.

Would be nice to see even better incentives for direct next week.

 

[Girlstar30]

Maybe now is the time to panic sell contracts!

Give them all to us

 

[Girlstar30]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/slo...us-puts-disneys-theme-park-magic-at-risk.html

 

[PolyRob]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/slo...us-puts-disneys-theme-park-magic-at-risk.html

Waiting for those new direct incentives...

 

[Girlstar30]

Waiting for those new direct incentives...

View attachment 959547

Same same, come on Disney, get with the times

 

[CastAStone]

Having taken a few months mostly off and just joining back,

I think it’s pretty transparent that prices are falling and will fall more.

As always, some resorts won’t fall as much or even at all for reasons owing as much to randomness as anything, like how Poly, VGF, VGC and AKV have all at times in the last 5 years had their inventory kind of randomly pinched, sending prices up.

How much will they fall? Very hard to tell. My baseline estimate is maybe 10% more than they have?

As I’ve said in the past, I think Riviera eventually settles around wherever SSR is trading at the time, and VB goes sub $30, those seem likely to happen this year.

 

[kgou]

Having taken a few months mostly off and just joining back,

welcome back!!

 

[atthebeachclub]

welcome back!!

...or "welcome home"!

 

[CastAStone]

As I’ve said in the past, I think Riviera eventually settles around wherever SSR is trading at the time, and VB goes sub $30, those seem likely to happen this year.

By the way my next resort specific predictions are that VDH settles in the $120s or less and that Poly falls at least another 15% from where it is, maybe more.

(If it goes sub-$120 I will probably add on )

 

[DVCsloth]

By the way my next resort specific predictions are that VDH settles in the $120s or less and that Poly falls at least another 15% from where it is, maybe more.

(If it goes sub-$120 I will probably add on )

Wow, $120 or less seems like a really good deal for VDH. Never been to DL, but I really like the look and nostalgia of VDH from what I can tell. I guess the restrictions and room tax are really affecting it.

 

[sethschroeder]

I know that when we have visited Canada we always get ribbed a little by Canadian customs and asked if we are bringing in cigarettes…. but going back into the US is always so much more of a pain.

Canada has rejected counterparts of mine at the boarder, I have also experienced delayed entry through excess questions. I and those that I know have never had issues entering the US (both those from the US and those from outside the US).

We all have our own priority entry documentation though Global Entry/Nexus.

I know the news is going hard after US boarder control right now but honestly I typically find they are one of the best out there. Go to the Caribbean where they policy is "you will get in to the country sometime today" as they have lines so long it can go back out the building in places like Turks.

 

[sethschroeder]

As I’ve said in the past, I think Riviera eventually settles around wherever SSR is trading at the time, and VB goes sub $30, those seem likely to happen this year.

RIV will stay above the bottom tier of DVC both because of the quality of resort and the contract length. Heck we are 1-2 years out and SSR will have higher MFs and OKW is already more expensive by like $2/point (this is where SSR is going because of all the individual buildings).

RIV going down means OKW/SSR are going to be that much further reduced.

OKW/SSR/AKV/BRV -- RIV/BWV -- BCV/BLT/CCV -- POLY/VGF

That is roughly the tiers with BRV/BWV/BCV being the "movers" long term as they will age out so have less value as the contract length shrinks.

 

[CastAStone]

Wow, $120 or less seems like a really good deal for VDH. Never been to DL, but I really like the look and nostalgia of VDH from what I can tell. I guess the restrictions and room tax are really affecting it.

When I say settles at I mean when it has enough contracts for sale to be reasonably available across use years and contract sizes, so maybe 2029?

 

[CastAStone]

RIV going down means OKW/SSR are going to be that much further reduced.

The two DVC resale products are basically entirely unrelated other than both being at WDW. I don’t see one putting pressure on the other.

 

[sethschroeder]

The two DVC resale products are basically entirely unrelated other than both being at WDW. I don’t see one putting pressure on the other.

They are not unrelated its why there is price stratification across DVC resale and RIV settled in to its spot a while ago.

When someone has the choice between SSR/OKW with higher MFs, lower quality rooms, and nothing but multi-bus stop transportation compared to RIV (which is also the only Epcot resort not expiring in 17 years) they are going to choose RIV more often even with resale restrictions which will cause the price to increase over SSR/OKW.

Without resale restrictions you see RIV at the POLY/VGF level. The resale restrictions then get priced in and it drops down in the tier above the bottom resort tier.

EDIT: Wanted to add anytime you talk about RIV the thing to remember is that a new family right now can't even get to their kids graduation from HS before a BWV/BCV contract would expire. That does weight on people, especially those of us who are BIG Epcot people.

 

[cruisehopeful]

Wow, $120 or less seems like a really good deal for VDH. Never been to DL, but I really like the look and nostalgia of VDH from what I can tell. I guess the restrictions and room tax are really affecting it.

When I say settles at I mean when it has enough contracts for sale to be reasonably available across use years and contract sizes, so maybe 2029?

I actually think it'll trend upwards, similar to VGC, as time goes on and Disneyland Forward progresses. Those taxes are a bummer compared to other DVC resorts, but they are just a fact of life when staying in the area. DVC members aren't used to paying it, but most people who stay at hotels in the area are.

 

[CastAStone]

I actually think it'll trend upwards, similar to VGC, as time goes on and Disneyland Forward progresses. Those taxes are a bummer compared to other DVC resorts, but they are just a fact of life when staying in the area. DVC members aren't used to paying it, but most people who stay at hotels in the area are.

The problem is that the taxes alone on the VDH room will get you 80% of a room including those taxes at a lot of nice resorts close by (or 100% of a room including taxes at a sketchy hotel even closer). And you still owe a buyin and dues.

I agree that IF DisneylandForward proceeds with a park expansion surrounding those hotels it will have some positive impact, but if it drives cash rates higher that will drive the TOT even higher and make the comparison to the rest of the Anaheim Resort Area even worse.

Couple that with resale restrictions (which eliminate the possibility to use the points in a manner that doesn’t include the TOT) and it’s really hard for me to see a positive future for the resorts resale prospects.

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't know. Most of the DLR hotel value proposition already relies on a set of rabid southern californians for whom Only Disney Will Do (tm); that might be enough to keep the resale market afloat.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I don't know. Most of the DLR hotel value proposition already relies on a set of rabid southern californians for whom Only Disney Will Do (tm); that might be enough to keep the resale market afloat.

This is absolutely why I know it will do well long term. That and that California kind of money. Especially if interest rates decrease again; you KNOW people will refinance and buy themselves a little slice of Disneyland.