Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[hhisc16]

I

Yep. Just got this too! Some interesting questions. They are more interested in your feeling about DVC and if you broke even, lost, of made money than I anticipated.

I got it as well.
I was very surprised by the type of questions.

 

[Sandisw]

Can I add....that if people DO want to discuss any political aspects....come join some of us on the controversial section of the Dis!

Thank you!!! I forgot to add that!!!!

 

[atthebeachclub]

Oof. “Major” (per White House, but no specifics) tariffs “soon” to be announced for my industry after all. This is getting turbulent. Buckle up.

If this messes with my employment or pay in some way I might be renting points out to others instead of enjoying them myself.

 

[Girlstar30]

Oof. “Major” (per White House, but no specifics) tariffs “soon” to be announced for my industry after all. This is getting turbulent. Buckle up.

If this messes with my employment or pay in some way I might be renting points out to others instead of enjoying them myself.

This is a crazy roller coaster ride. Will China buckle or will we crash even more this week

 

[atthebeachclub]

This is a crazy roller coaster ride. Will China buckle or will we crash even more this week

Not sure but I probably need to remove all internet access at home because the info overload and all this up and down is making me seasick.

 

[KyloKev]

Not sure but I probably need to remove all internet access at home because the info overload and all this up and down is making me seasick.

Right? I’ve buried myself in the DVC threads and DVC videos on YouTube the past few days doing my DVC homework as a nice distraction. While listening to some Disney music!

 

[atthebeachclub]

I honestly never thought I would get to see a reimagined version of Smoot-Hawley. It’s like AP American History relived, in real time.

Also, I want to go to WDW, where the real world doesn’t exist.

 

[sndral]

I voted down 20%+ 2 weeks ago & I was thinking resale prices rather than direct, but I didn’t have high confidence in that prediction & hoped I’d be wrong.
My first bear market as an investor was the dot com bust of 2000. That experience taught me to be a more conservative investor, so I dutifully dollar cost averaged into what felt like a never ending bear market triggered by the financial crisis of 2008, although it was no fun to do so. Thus the short lived bear market triggered by Covid was NBD for me.
IMO the market has been overvalued & overdue to revert to historic norms probably overshooting on the downside to do so, I just didn’t know what event would trigger the bear market.
I knew consumer debt was going up & delinquencies were increasing, I was vaguely concerned that if the tariff seesaw landed wrong we’d see a Smoot - Hawley type event. OTH the employment numbers have been decent & maybe the tariff talk was just an opening salvo that would moderate rather than escalate .
So I guess I was sensing recession & remembering what happened to DVC resale prices in the aftermath of the 2008 housing market debacle when resale prices tanked & were down well over 20%.
I recall many posts from folks seeking guidance on how to exit DVC due to economic pressure, DVC offering deeds in lieu of foreclosure to direct buyers who’d financed, those who’d financed to buy resale or via HELOCS (a popular option then due to easy credit & the lower interest rate) didn’t have that out.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

Not sure but I probably need to remove all internet access at home because the info overload and all this up and down is making me seasick.

I deleted all social media and news apps from my phone. “News will find its way to you” an old friend told me this week.

 

[Brian Noble]

I honestly never thought I would get to see a reimagined version of Smoot-Hawley.

"Did it work? Anyone? Anyone? It did not work."

I forgot that he also had the Laffer Curve bit.

 

[DVCsloth]

Maybe a good time to buy!

 

[Girlstar30]

Maybe a good time to buy!

Must. Go. Lower. Lol.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think that's right. IIRC, things did not get grim in the resale market until we were a good year into the Great Recession. Keep your powder dry!

 

[DVCsloth]

I think that's right. IIRC, things did not get grim in the resale market until we were a good year into the Great Recession. Keep your powder dry!

Maybe a smaller BCV in my use year in the near future.

 

[jolynne28]

"Did it work? Anyone? Anyone? It did not work."

I forgot that he also had the Laffer Curve bit.

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy, who knows this kid, who's going with the girl who heard DVC summer incentives would be

 

[maui22]

I think that's right. IIRC, things did not get grim in the resale market until we were a good year into the Great Recession. Keep your powder dry!

I recalled the same thing, but decided to look at data to make sure memories of when foreclosures and deeds returning to Disney happened. Notice, the worst of the foreclosures didn't happen until after the Great Recession (December 2007-June 2009) ended.

Using occompt publicly accessible data and their recorded dates. The most deeds where Disney was the Grantee (mostly Deeds in lieu of foreclosure) for a quarter was 1089 in the 1Q2009, gradually dropped through 2009. 1Q2010, there were 3009, 2512 in 2Q2010, 1300 in 3Q2010, 1175 in 4Q2010, and 1098 in 1Q2011.

Maybe a smaller BCV in my use year in the near future.

From what I recall BCV resales reached the $50s-$60s bottom during the Great Recession. Pretty sure that was 2010 or 2011, which was after the Recession (December 2007-June 2009). Not sure on the point number though. It was common for contracts to be fully loaded (people avoided trips, so they banked).

BWV resale bottom was below $30/pt. Rare, but it happened.

 

[Brian Noble]

Foreclosures take non-trivial time, even when they non-judicial. I'd consider those a lagging indicator.

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy, who knows this kid, who's going with the girl who heard DVC summer incentives would be

That might be the best line in the film.

 

[DVCsloth]

I recalled the same thing, but decided to look at data to make sure memories of when foreclosures and deeds returning to Disney happened. Notice, the worst of the foreclosures didn't happen until after the Great Recession (December 2007-June 2009) ended.

Using occompt publicly accessible data and their recorded dates. The most deeds where Disney was the Grantee (mostly Deeds in lieu of foreclosure) for a quarter was 1089 in the 1Q2009, gradually dropped through 2009. 1Q2010, there were 3009, 2512 in 2Q2010, 1300 in 3Q2010, 1175 in 4Q2010, and 1098 in 1Q2011.


From what I recall BCV resales reached the $50s-$60s bottom during the Great Recession. Pretty sure that was 2010 or 2011, which was after the Recession (December 2007-June 2009). Not sure on the point number though. It was common for contracts to be fully loaded (people avoided trips, so they banked).

BWV resale bottom was below $30/pt. Rare, but it happened.

I think close to $100 a point I could be persuaded to pull the trigger on a smaller BCV resale.

 

[maui22]

Thing about everything happening this year, it can change in an instant, as just happened to the markets.

 

[disneylandtour]

Tariffs now paused on everyone, except China. DVC pricing lags behind markets, typically, by months. So if it's going to be an on-again / off-again march toward maybe a recession, I'm not sure that DVD will meaningfully adjust incentives in summer. I have no idea how large businesses are managing this type of whiplash unpredictability. China's tariff has now been raised to 125%. I'm just waiting to see if China takes out its frustration on American companies inside their country--such as Shanghai Disneyland.