Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[Cfabar1]

We seem to be dealing with a lot of uncertainty in the DVC Market…. So far this year we are seeing some big changes with pricing, especially around Vero Beach and Hilton Head. We are also seeing Poly fall with the arrival of new inventory back down to levels from before. At the same time, AKV seems to be holding or maybe even going higher, and OKW seems to have stabilized in my view.

So… what do you think? Where do you see resale prices going?

The poll is imperfect as it doesn’t differentiate by different resorts, but would love to just get people’s overall thoughts…

My personal view is I am holding off on buying more contracts for a little while. I think we are heading down. Which is fine with me, because I ultimately want to buy more points!

 

[Disney.dad]

I voted stay about the same with those choice, but I think we see avg prices drop 5-10% this year with this economy we have. A 10-20% drop is a big drop that I do not feel is in the cards. There have definitely been signs of things having came back down some the last few months but that is probably the seasonality of supply and demand and put prices nearer where the were this time last year.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I voted stay about the same with those choice, but I think we see avg prices drop 5-10% this year with this economy we have. A 10-20% drop is a big drop that I do not feel is in the cards. There have definitely been signs of things having came back down some the last few months but that is probably the seasonality of supply and demand and put prices nearer where the were this time last year.

I’m where you are, 5-10% range depending on which resort, size of contract, stripped/loaded, etc.

 

[Sandisw]

I think as a market they’ll pretty much stay the same. Some may go up a little and others down, but overall average is similar.

 

[Chili327]

I voted they would stay similar, but that's just the average over the rest of the year, i do think they are still going to drop more before the end of summer.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I also went with "about the same" as I can see a couple resorts maybe falling due to aging out or restrictions, and a couple climbing, so all-in-all, very similar. That said, there are always outliers in the super high or super low ... it's notable how one big seller (usually evident by only a couple of use years and lots of similar size contracts posted all at once) can make a resort look like the market has stopped, when another use year, same resort, same points, is snapped up in hours. I think the Brokers sometimes get lazy and want to price based on "all" the UYs but we know when shopping, some definitely have more competition (at that particular moment) than others.

 

[Girlstar30]

I think about the same because nothing too exciting is going to open at the parks this year, i think there's a new parade coming, but no new rides, just building. I am curious to see what happens to price when villains land opens I'm hoping my BLT blows up to the moon

 

[atthebeachclub]

If I could predict the future I wouldn’t be on this message board.

I honestly have no idea. But my portfolio is suffering the past few months. I’ve never lost so much value in such a short time! But like anything, you only lock in losses when you sell low. Hold on to your points and try not to sell in any downturns if you can avoid it.

 

[hhisc16]

As a recent seller and buyer, i notice the 2042 resort prices slowing down and 2054+ resorts staying about the same.

 

[DL1WDW2]

I recently saw some comments that BLT pricing was jumping up which surprised me.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

Tend to think general economic sentiment will be low and Epic Universe hype will be high. It seems more and more DVC buyers are viewing it as a short-to-medium term investment (avg. ownership is ~7 years per Chad P.), and thus more likely to be swayed by recent events and parks decisions.

Down 5-10% is my guess.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

If I could predict the future I wouldn’t be on this message board.

I honestly have no idea. But my portfolio is suffering the past few months. I’ve never lost so much value in such a short time! But like anything, you only lock in losses when you sell low. Hold on to your points and try not to sell in any downturns if you can avoid it.

I feel ya! In fact it literally affected me directly today. After months and months of low balling I finally got very close to a fully loaded contract at a very attractive price. The agent was gently nudging me to come up slightly to close the deal and I looked at my portfolio...looked at the contract...looked at my portfolio...and just got scared off thinking maybe it's just a little more prudent to hold on to cash right now. And this could all be a nothing burger and a temporary blip but...welll...you know how human psyche works.

But IF prices drift down a considerable amount then I'm thinking Poly will be had cheap as that's been the most inflated and probably has the farthest to fall. 125 pp? I'd be all over it!

 

[atthebeachclub]

I feel ya! In fact it literally affected me directly today. After months and months of low balling I finally got very close to a fully loaded contract at a very attractive price. The agent was gently nudging me to come up slightly to close the deal and I looked at my portfolio...looked at the contract...looked at my portfolio...and just got scared off thinking maybe it's just a little more prudent to hold on to cash right now.

This is the best human explanation of exactly how recessions start. My spouse today even mentioned that I should start hanging on to my cash (Funny thing since we just bought and sold a DVC contract). Feelings = the economy! It’s all about the vibes. And the vibes are not good.

I’m just thankful that my job is traditionally recession proof, but I feel like nothing is predictable now.

 

[Girlstar30]

This is the best human explanation of exactly how recessions start. My spouse today even mentioned that I should start hanging on to my cash (Funny thing since we just bought and sold a DVC contract). Feelings = the economy! It’s all about the vibes. And the vibes are not good.

I’m just thankful that my job is traditionally recession proof, but I feel like nothing is predictable now.

I have been thinking this too. Am I crazy for spending this much when there's so much unpredictability going on right now? But then my mind is happy cuz if other people are scared then direct prices may go down

 

[TheDailyMoo]

This is the best human explanation of exactly how recessions start. My spouse today even mentioned that I should start hanging on to my cash (Funny thing since we just bought and sold a DVC contract). Feelings = the economy! It’s all about the vibes. And the vibes are not good.

I’m just thankful that my job is traditionally recession proof, but I feel like nothing is predictable now.

I'm not in panic mode or overly worried and I think there's a LOT of dust that has to settle and I too am rather recession proof at work but on the other hand...

I have a decent amount of points in what is a very frivolous area to spend money... our family goes to Disney a LOT to the point that family and friends don't hold back groans and incredulous looks when we mention we're going again. And it does bring us a lot of intrinsic joy so it's totally worth it but again...I have to stop myself recently and say do I really NEED another contract. Is it worth laying out more cash when the prudent thing to do is hold tight for a while and see which way the winds are blowing. I figure worse comes to worse prices won't go up. All I'll really miss out on are the free paid for points on a loaded contract. If that's the hedge I'm ok with in my mind then so be it.

 

[maui22]

No clue where things are going, but I know a lot of people who only look at their portfolios quarterly.

 

[glencoe]

I am in for the long haul, I did get my resale contracts at amazing prices years ago (3 are grandfathered and I will never sell those), however for awhile it seemed resales were out of control and not that far from direct-they seem to be normalizing again.
It does concern me that WDW is struggling and many die hard fans are claiming to never return, but there seems to be enough "once in a life time"/international visitor people to keep the crowds huge (and the rental market for DVC seems very strong?). I never have extra points to rent but it seems many do or are in it as a business.
I don't get it-they claim attendance is down yet, I go to the parks about every 4-6 weeks and they seem to be always crowded! Where did the slow times go??? So many thoughts on that.....
Once the refurb is done at BLT and the new lands are complete in MK I expect both BLT and POLY to jump in value?
GF seems to stay strong also. The 2042 resorts I expect will drop as that time nears and with the disaster with OKW expiration dates (the two different expiration years I am referring to) that seems to be a forcasted disaster.
I have "heard" Vero and HH might just be sold off by Disney when they reach their expiration years-
Who knows...a change in leadership can upset the apple cart completely as we have learned (cough-cough Chapek)

 

[Brian Noble]

No clue where things are going, but I know a lot of people who only look at their portfolios quarterly.

Until my pending divorce, I rarely even opened the quarterly statements. Money goes in, get spread across a handful of index funds, and is more or less set-and-forget. I am getting a little bit better about annual re-balancing, but that's about it. I'm not quite a Boglehead, but I'm a spiritual cousin. I'm pretty close to a straight-up Index Card person.

If I could predict the future I wouldn’t be on this message board.

Me too.

It is fun to speculate about what might happen in the resale market, but I really don't have any clue. Instead, I would make any DVC buy/sell decisions based on my own needs and circumstances. Do I need more points, and have the cash on hand to buy them? Then now is a good time to buy. Do I have too many, or do I need to cut discretionary expenses over the medium-to-long term because of retirement or a career change? Then now is a good time to sell.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

I am speculating that rofr would slow down with stocks down. Direct sales might slow down with a weaker economic backdrop. There might be some Canadians selling their dvc contracts to protest the trade dispute - but a strong usd makes it attractive for them to sell the contract and vacation where the currency is weaker.

I am hoping this opens up some fire sale direct dvc opportunities. Maybe a repeat of their VGF or OKW sales, either at these locations or in spirit resorts in active sales.

Disney is likely in a cash raising mode to buy back shares vs buying/holding dvc contracts.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think they will go down. Economy too unstable