Cruises set to sail December 2021

[JanetRose]

Do you know or believe if Disney will full the ship to capacity?

 

[Cheburashka]

Do you know or believe if Disney will full the ship to capacity?

No one knows that at this point.

 

[Clojel]

Do you know or believe if Disney will full the ship to capacity?

No one knows....but my guess is that IF they sail, they won’t be at 100% capacity. Personally, I think we see covid numbers plummet early summer and DCL is cruising by September at 50% occupancy and then gradually increasing. But, that’s just my gut feeling

 

[soniam]

No one knows....but my guess is that IF they sail, they won’t be at 100% capacity. Personally, I think we see covid numbers plummet early summer and DCL is cruising by September at 50% occupancy and then gradually increasing. But, that’s just my gut feeling

That would be great, and actually not too far fetched. But what's out of the realm of possibility these days

 

[Jim Libasci]

Do you know or believe if Disney will full the ship to capacity?

impossible to know for sure. There's no way that it won't be a Modified experience. What are the odds that Florida will be vaccinated to 90% by then?

 

[Momtotwogirls]

impossible to know for sure. There's no way that it won't be a Modified experience. What are the odds that Florida will be vaccinated to 90% by then?

Considering Florida (I live in South Florida) is now open to 16+, hopefully it will be around 75-80%. Not everyone is going to choose to get vaccinated. I do agree, the ships are going to have a modified experience. We are rescheduled for Thanksgiving week and I have my doubts that will sale. Hopefully it will, but who knows at this point.

 

[re3mom]

If they sail at reduced capacity, how will they determine who goes? By booking date? Every other stateroom? Or are they only opening up reservations for a certain number per cruise ship at this point?

 

[DisneYE]

If they sail at reduced capacity, how will they determine who goes? By booking date? Every other stateroom? Or are they only opening up reservations for a certain number per cruise ship at this point?

I think once DCL announces sailings with masks, social distancing, restriction on ports, kids clubs, shows, pools, etc , a natural selection of sorts will take place. Many ppl will cancel/change their itineraries once they publish the new guidelines for sailing.
For example, if they announce no kids clubs we'll insta-cancel. even our DD isn't interested in sailing w/o clubs.
ppl we know have said they'll cancel if shows or pools are limited capacity... others if they can't explore the ports on their own... you get the idea.

 

[auntlynne]

The title of this thread is cruises set to sail December 2021. Is that a statement or just a tease?

 

[Jim Libasci]

If they sail at reduced capacity, how will they determine who goes? By booking date? Every other stateroom? Or are they only opening up reservations for a certain number per cruise ship at this point?

There's going to be a lot of people that going to cancel on their own. Might be enough. Most people need Kids stuff to be running. I'd love to see a no kids-Mandatory Vaccination cruise to nowhere, but I don't think they'd make any money on it.

 

[Cheburashka]

I'd love to see a no kids-Mandatory Vaccination cruise to nowhere, but I don't think they'd make any money on it.

Agreed, because Castaway Cay is a huge draw for most Disney cruisers, I don't think a Castaway-free cruise with no other ports would sell well at all.

 

[mab2012]

I don't know the answer any more than anyone else, but if they introduce a 100% vaccination requirement (as is being discussed on another thread with regards to NCL), I don't see why they wouldn't run at full capacity, restriction free.

If literally everyone is vaccinated, you could reasonably assume there is herd immunity in that environment. Even if a vaccinated person comes onboard with an active infection, it'll have a hard time transmitting. And anyone who does catch it might not even realize it, since the vaccines typically reduce he severity of symptoms.

Of course, if vaccination isn't a requirement then the picture changes completely, and IMO what precautions or restrictions are in place at that point is anyone's guess.

 

[Cheburashka]

I don't know the answer any more than anyone else, but if they introduce a 100% vaccination requirement (as is being discussed on another thread with regards to NCL), I don't see why they wouldn't run at full capacity, restriction free.

Because no one yet knows how long vaccine effectiveness will last. That's why they can't base their precaution procedures for future cruises on whether or not everyone will be vaccinated. That, plus the fact that DCL is a family-oriented line, and children under 16 are not yet approved for vaccination, and no one knows when they will be.

 

[Joe Brig]

The deck parties are the only time that people are close together by design. Might have to skip a seat in the theater and add another showing, other then that crowds are manageable.

Virtual muster drills can replace in person.

 

[hrhdhd]

There's going to be a lot of people that going to cancel on their own. Might be enough. Most people need Kids stuff to be running. I'd love to see a no kids-Mandatory Vaccination cruise to nowhere, but I don't think they'd make any money on it.

Cruises to nowhere (leaving and returning to U.S. ports on foreign-flagged ships) aren't legal.

 

[mab2012]

Because no one yet knows how long vaccine effectiveness will last. That's why they can't base their precaution procedures for future cruises on whether or not everyone will be vaccinated. That, plus the fact that DCL is a family-oriented line, and children under 16 are not yet approved for vaccination, and no one knows when they will be.

I didn't say that DCL will require vaccines, only that if they do, it could plausibility be restriction-free. And I really don't think anyone is going to be keeping restrictions in place indefinitely, "just in case the vaccines wear off".

That said, the timeline for this thread is December. By then it's likely that vaccines will be available to school-age children, at least. And NCL is also pretty family-oriented, so if they're planning to require vaccines for all ages, I don't think we can assume that DCL will do otherwise.

I'm trying (and failing) to understand how that would work. If other cruise lines are requiring full vaccination, where does that leave DCL? Is Disney going to say "yes, we know that requiring everyone to be vaccinated provides the safest operating environment, and that's what other cruise lines are doing, but we don't want to leave out the kids, so we're willing to settle for the dubious protection of reduced capacity and masks"? I don't think that's likely.

I've been arguing since the beginning that cruises would not resume in any meaningful way until there was some fundamental shift either in our ability to prevent or treat COVID, or in our willingness to accept its risks. Like it or not, vaccination is the only way we get there in the foreseeable future.

So to stay on-point to the thread: it could go either way, but I think it's possible that cruises will run at full capacity by December, if vaccinations are required.

 

[MickeySwirl]

The deck parties are the only time that people are close together by design. Might have to skip a seat in the theater and add another showing, other then that crowds are manageable.

Virtual muster drills can replace in person.

The dining rooms also put people quite close together. The space between one table and another is sometimes only a few inches.

 

[Husker Mike]

Here's how I think about it: COVID-19 caused schools, businesses and life in general to shut down, out of fear that so many sick people would overwhelm our health care system. Things have gradually reopened in a phased manner, but the bottom line is being able to manage the sickest people. That means we've got to do what we can do to keep the spread of this disease in check. Things that stayed open required social distancing and masks. Now vaccinations are helping tremendously.

But because not everyone can be vaccinated (especially much of Disney's target audience), all of these restrictions are likely to remain in place until the spread drops precipitously. We're improving, but only to the point of where we were last summer, when many things were still shut down. The real impact of vaccinations is still yet to be felt; five weeks ago, pretty much only retirees and essential workers could get shots. Since then, age requirements have dropped and now seem to be gone everywhere. The number of people getting vaccinated each day has doubled over the last month, which is great news. But those people just now getting immunized aren't clear yet; most of them will need another month-plus to get to the point where they are protected. Plus, now that the Pfizer tests on 12-16 have finished, I suspect that we'll see those age groups will start getting immunized later this year. (I'm hopeful that early this summer.)

And that's why public health authorities aren't ready yet to remove all of the restrictions. If everything goes as it seems, we should start seeing rates falling over the next month. When we get to the stage where very few people are becoming ill, all of these mask ordinances and social distancing rules will start being loosened. But we're not there yet. People are missing the reason that these restrictions were put into place in the first place: It is all to manage the spread of the illness. Once the spread of the illness becomes minimal, all of these restrictions can go away. The vaccines are a big part of making that spread disappear, but since not everyone can get vaccinated yet, it's too soon to remove those restrictions.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

I'd love to see a no kids-Mandatory Vaccination cruise to nowhere, but I don't think they'd make any money on it.

Cruises to nowhere (leaving and returning to U.S. ports on foreign-flagged ships) aren't legal.

Well, they are legal. What happened was the determination that cruises to nowhere were considered employment "within the US". That means that the visas/paperwork necessary for those foreign nationals that work onboard the ships was different than on a cruise that actually stops at a foreign port (a cruise that's considered a "foreign" cruise). That paperwork is more costly and involved (for the employer) and most cruise lines opted not to have to deal with it, and stopped doing cruises to nowhere.

 

[DVCkidsMOM]

...
Virtual muster drills can replace in person.

Oooof, I didn't even consider how they'd do muster drills - if they must be required in-person before resumption of cruising this could cause another layer to the delay. I so badly want to be on a ship in the blue ocean, with music, and beverages, and allergy friendly food. At this point I don't even care about ports other than CC. I would love on-board shows somehow. That's my wish list - all else I can handle - I just really want to be able to cruise from the US as safely as reasonable as soon as possible...