Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Farro]

I've been the optimistic one, but the variants and their possible resistance to the vaccines have me very concerned right now. It goes way beyond my hopeful Disney trip in December. If the pandemic is still around (and we have to wear masks and it still fees like a partial Disney experience) the trip will get bumped.

Best case scenario: the vaccine distribution ramps up and the pandemic basically comes to an end in the summer time or fall time.

Worst case scenario: The variants pose too resistant to the vaccines and even worse, can cause reinfection. This would mean we are years away from normalcy.

Often cases, most of what you think is probably down the middle somewhere. For me it's about being honest with myself, I just know all scenarios could end up happening.

All testing/reporting thus far is going against your worst case variant theory. And boosters are already being worked on.

Worst case is people may have to get a (booster) shot every year to protect against new variants - to which I say - big deal.

 

[skeeter31]

This thread really misses Rteetz deleetz. And oh how I wish there were some actual cruise or theme park related news.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Hey guys, this isn’t the vaccine thread, remember?

 

[SaintsManiac]

This thread really misses Rteetz deleetz. And oh how I wish there were some actual cruise or theme park related news.

JINX

 

[Farro]

This thread really misses Rteetz deleetz. And oh how I wish there were some actual cruise or theme park related news.

Hey guys, this isn’t the vaccine thread, remember?

What shall we discuss?

 

[IceSkatingPrincess]

This thread really misses Rteetz deleetz. And oh how I wish there were some actual cruise or theme park related news.

Rteetz Deleetz would be having a June/July level field day with all of this right now!

 

[Farro]

Bunch of tattletales!

 

[rpb718]

Hey guys, this isn’t the vaccine thread, remember?

We know - but if I don't have at least one post deleted this week I'll go into withdrawal.

 

[helloconnie]

Some of that was states getting their admin in gear...VA had an amazing week, and it wasn't b/c they gave more doses than the last weeks, but that they finally recorded those doses when hiccups were found...

Not sure if that also plagued other states, but you may not see growth in numbers for Feb that you saw in Jan...especially since no new vaccine supply is really coming online with the J&J news...

PS - I've said elsewhere I see July as the goal month for normalcy - an Independence Day of sorts...so I'm not that unoptimistic, just cognizant of some of the hiccups that will likely plague rollouts (heck, even snow in the NE is gonna play a role this week)...

I think all the states were slow in getting their own plans organized and implemented. Some states are doing better than others. There are a couple of websites tracking by state. I think that once the states get their own bumps ironed out, the rate should increase and stabilize.

Really, the weakest link is the manufacturers. Both Pfizer and Moderna have had supply chain issues and are behind in shipments. They both promised 100 million doses each by the end of March. They would each need to deliver 7.5 million doses a week now to meet that commitment. Right now they are each delivering about 4.3 million doses a week. Hopefully, now that the Defensive Production Act has been invoked, the supply chain will catch up.

 

[mattpeto]

All testing/reporting thus far is going against your worst case variant theory. And boosters are already being worked on.

Worst case is people may have to get a (booster) shot every year to protect against new variants - to which I say - big deal.

Well the variants are definitely more resistant to the vaccines. J&J trial did better in the US then it did in South Africa.

But yep, if it's annual booster shot - that would be good too.

Covid-19 is more of a dangerous version of the common cold, which has been impossible to produce a vaccine.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

What shall we discuss?

Florida residents can receive a discount of 25% on food and beverages at Paddlefish and Terralina Crafted Italian at Disney Springs in Walt Disney World.

Big Discount for FL Residents at Two Disney Springs Restaurants (wdwinfo.com)


(that's all I got)

 

[mattpeto]

All fairness, we probably always needed a dedicated coronavirus thread in this area of the forum.

A place to yell each other about masks, politics (okay maybe not) and how these things directly impact WDW.

 

[skeeter31]

All fairness, we probably always needed a dedicated coronavirus thread in this area of the forum.

A place to yell each other about masks, politics (okay maybe not) and how these things directly impact WDW.

There’s the barren wastelands of the Community forum for that. Some interesting threads there.

 

[Farro]

Well the variants are definitely more resistant to the vaccines. J&J trial did better in the US then it did in South Africa.

But yep, if it's annual booster shot - that would be good too.

Covid-19 is more of a dangerous version of the common cold, which has been impossible to produce a vaccine.

All fairness, we probably always needed a dedicated coronavirus thread in this area of the forum.

A place to yell each other about masks, politics (okay maybe not) and how these things directly impact WDW.

So we don't become the least liked members of this board (if not already ) - this is a good, informative thread with a LOT of information and it discusses exactly what you are concerned about. (just click, it's a link the community board - it's a good thread)

https://www.disboards.com/threads/c...distribution-as-soon-as-late-october.3812104/

 

[mattpeto]

So we don't become the least liked members of this board (if not already ) - this is a good, informative thread with a LOT of information and it discusses exactly what you are concerned about. (just click, it's a link the community board - it's a good thread)

https://www.disboards.com/threads/c...distribution-as-soon-as-late-october.3812104/

Thanks!

 

[TheMaxRebo]

All fairness, we probably always needed a dedicated coronavirus thread in this area of the forum.

A place to yell each other about masks, politics (okay maybe not) and how these things directly impact WDW.

it's tough as, at least I think, the focus of this thread is to be about how the parks are operating once reopening and how things develop with vaccines and regulations and stastics, etc. impact how the parks *might* be - and that inmpact planning future trips (or moving them, or how they might be, etc.)

so hard to not talk about it at all, but obviously easy to talk in circles too

 

[zumfelde]

I love these posts that really think 100+ million doses of vaccine as well as the number of people able to administer said doses will miraculously show up all at once when they open up the vaccine to everyone. I expect by summer, everyone who want to get the vaccine will be able to try to get at least one appointment sometime during the later half of 2021. Most should be able to get both appointments for their follow-up shot.

Don't forget the 25+ million people that are immune because they have had covid. I had it 8 months ago and still have tested positive for anybodies.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Ok- Strickly tongue and cheeck. The next moderator of this forum needs to delete every post that has the word mask in it. Open a new forum with the heading of Everything Masks. That way I will know not to go on that thread because it only frustrates me and I can come on this thread without getting frustrated with mask comments--LOL.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I am tracking this myself. As of Saturday, January 23, we had administered approximately 20,500,000 doses.
As of yesterday, that number has increased to 31,123,299. That is a HUGE jump in one week and averages OVER 1.5 million per day. Seems to me the new administration is already making a difference with their COVID vaccination plan. And don't forget, 38 states are now using the National Guard to help administer the shots.

The math makes it very possible for the 60% of Americans who said they will get vaccinated to have their first shots by the end of April. (as long as the supply chain from Pfizer and Moderna hold)

Adults of 18 in US = 209,128,094
60% who said they would get vaccinated = 125,476,856
Doses administered as of 1/31 = 31,123,299 (with 49,933,250 being distributed)
If vaccinations happen at goal rate of 1,500,000 per day (150,0000,000 in first 100 days) = approximately 92,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30
If vaccinations happen at rate of 2 million per day = approximately 114,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30

These are all without the J&J vaccine. J&J is behind in production. They pledged 12 million doses by the end of February and up to 100 million by the end of June, in their contract. Now they are saying they will deliver 60 million by the end of April.

So by the end of May, you could have 152 million - 174 million adults vaccinated.

The 174 million is 83% of all adult Americans but the big question is what about the 39-40% that have said they would not get the vaccine? You can't force them to get it but I would think that there will be a big Public Service Campaign to convince them to get the shot. I am betting that in the end, about 33% of adults will refuse the vaccine. That would mean 67% would get it. That number would be approximately 140,116,000 people. So if J&J delivers at least 30 million vaccines by the beginning of April, we will get the 67% vaccinated by the end of April.

If I was Disney, I would be making plans to return to somewhat normal operations by mid-May, but would not announce anything until the beginning of April sometime when we should know it these numbers will become reality.

Great analysis, the problem is math seems to be more scary than Covid. I am a mortgage underwriter by trade an have been trained to always trust the math.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Blue Man Group ending their show at Universal Orlando