There are a number of variables that might not be immediately apparent that we also have to consider here.
First, as you mentioned, I think 25% of
maximum capacity (which I'm almost certain is the metric Chapek is using) is a much higher number than most might assume. Contrary to popular belief, MK almost never actually hits maximum capacity. It may have happened once or twice many years ago on rare occasions, but these days, Disney establishes barriers to entry (Resort Guests only, PH or AP tix only, only reservation-holders within an hour, etc...) at any point when attendance is getting remotely close to maximum capacity. As a result, they're able to slow new Guest entry to balance out with Guest exits. And these days (with all the expansions and the like), there are only a handful of days (usually one day around Easter, Fourth of July, and two or three days around Christmas and NYE) that MK actually even implements that protocol. The park never actually hits that true 100% capacity, so, yes, some of us (myself included) may have seen MK at 98% capacity but I'm fairly confident none of us (except potentially very long-time WDW visitors) have seen MK at a true 100% capacity.
With that in mind, we need to reconsider what 25% actually is within this context. If MK's maximum capacity is around 90k Guests, 25% of that would be 22.5k Guests. An "average" MK is just north of 55k Guests with very few days each year dipping below 50k. To put that number in context, a "busier" day (like Memorial Day for example) might be between 65k and 68k Guests with true holiday crowds getting closer to (but not hitting) 90k (so they'd be in the 70s and 80s I'd imagine). So what we're seeing now is roughly 1/3 of "busier" crowds (like Memorial Day) or just under 1/2 of an "average" or "slower" day. You take away parades, fireworks, character greetings, shows, and many QS locations, and I absolutely buy that that's where we're at right now. In other words, MK at 50% capacity isn't super social distancing-friendly, especially without these other experiences.
In terms of the queues themselves, I cannot emphasize this point enough: these long physical lines are not just due to social distancing or reduced ride capacity. Certainly, those changes play a part but you have to remember that through March anywhere from 25% to 60% of an attraction's capacity was being taken up by the (faster-moving) FP/FP+ queue. So you essentially had the attraction's total "queue" split amongst two physical lines. While there are still some Guests (really just
DAS and VIP tours at this point) using the general queue bypass, almost all of each attraction's capacity is coming from one single queue. That in and of itself has the potential to double the length of the physical queue and then those other factors exacerbate it even more. It's interesting though because, while the physical queues are longer, the actual waits (as we've discussed, posted waits at this point are just serious ballpark estimates) are still shorter or, in extreme cases, on par with what you'd get on an average or slightly below average MK day. With the reductions in capacity and lack of other experiences, that doesn't surprise me at all at 25% capacity. And, to be honest, I'm not sure how much filling more space would help. I think the primary reason most of us "feel" these waits now is because there isn't a FP/FP+ alternative (plus we're seeing almost obnoxiously long physical lines that only exacerbate that feeling).
Now, above all, Disney has gotten much better at allocating reservations as well as some (though not a lot) are getting more comfortable traveling to Florida specifically. Most of the increase in crowds can be attributed to the former. So while visitation has certainly increased, capacity actually hasn't. It's possible that Disney may have set capacity at 25% (and placed markers and implemented protocols to accommodate that capacity) but not filled it all the way there (by not releasing every cancelation, not accounting for no-shows, or even holding spots back for "later," etc...). It may even be as simple as Disney setting capacity at 25% but initially capping it a bit lower and steadily increasing it to that 25% "capacity" incrementally over time like they did in Shanghai. That said, I'd bet the drastic changes in visitation we're seeing are more a result of better algorithms to allocate reservations. They now know Guest patterns in this new environment, so they have adapted their systems to them.
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