Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Ariel 1715]

This was my thought too. That's one way to reduce the number of people coming.

Ok, I must have missed something how do we know value and mods are going to be upset?

 

[Sandiz08]

If values and mods are gonna be upset it can only mean one thing. That they will have to pay the rack rate to move resorts on their dates and not getting moved to a DVC with no charge.

Or only a couple of those would be open, leaving the rest out to pay for the upgrade.

 

[SarahC97]

Ok, I must have missed something how do we know value and mods are going to be upset?

Based on this...he had previously said value and mod guests will likely be upset.

.

But I was more talking about the forthcoming announcements. I actually think that Deluxe guests will fare decently, but three previously mentioned groups may find themselves more disappointed. That's all I feel comfortable saying right now, as things are changing so quickly.

 

[Dulcee]

Ok, I must have missed something how do we know value and mods are going to be upset?

All just conjecture at this point. I still think people here are GREATLY overestimating the number of people who have actually kept or even plan to keep reservations for July/August/September.

 

[Sunnywho]

Value and mods who have not yet booked would be upset if those hotels were closed for the rest of 2020 as rumored, even if people who booked are still moved at no cost.

 

[ryanpatricksmom]

I'm a value guest and a deluxe guest this summer so I have a feeling that I'm going to feel pretty conflicted when this all shakes out

I'm very happy that I have a backup stay at shades for my value stay right now though... just in case.

I'm a moderate guest with an AP. I should just start taking valium now.

 

[andyman8]

So basically everyone will get screwed?

So this may be an . . . if you've upset everyone, then you're doing it most fairly . . . situation?

So far Values are faring pretty decently with reassignments—we will take our chances. What’s your crystal ball telling you?

I'm a deluxe guest with an AP...so I'll do both good and bad? Be happy and upset? LOL

The decisions being made are not really about fairness but are purely business-minded (i.e. what can the business handle and how we can maximize what we've got). That's something I think most of us can agree on. Believe it or not, that's also something of a departure for Disney. We (myself included) hound them for things like the cabana tents in Tomorrowland, but at the same time, most other amusement/theme park operators with the sort of lines WDW sees would have started charging for a queue bypass option years ago. With Disney, it's always been this delicate balance between business and what guests perceive as fairness. Due this severe interruption, that balance has shifted for the moment. They're not trying to upset guests; they're trying to make the logistical needs meet with the business needs meet with the Guest Experience. That's going to mean disappointment, but if you go in with an open mind (understanding you may not stay at the resort you want or even your second choice, you may not go a park everyday, you may not dine where, when, or how you want, you may not have everything offered you want and what is offered might cost more etc...), it is my understanding you'll be fine. That's all I feel comfortable saying at the moment.

 

[Krandor]

I think people are grossly overestimating the amount of money that Disney is making here.

I used a figure of $1k per room per day for the teams to include rooms, food, & convention/facility space (counting when family arrives) + another $200K a day total for league spend (league employees, referees, limited number of media), and I came up with between $75-80M the league was paying Disney. Round it up to $100M to be safe

Disney World was losing somewhere around $40M in revenue a day according to an Orlando Business Journal estimate

At the low end of my estimate, these three months are making up for 2 days of lost revenue. Even if I’m off my high end estimate of $100M by 50%, these three months are making up for 5 days of lost revenue

in other words.....If it was strictly about the money, Disney would open up every room to you and me, rather than have the NBA there

Every if everything was open disney isn't getting back to the $30-40M mark for a while. Right now they are just trying to cover all their fixed costs and incremental variable costs so it is not fair to compare it to the $30M-$40M because they are just not possible right now at all.

However you are only looking at one part of the money picture.

NBA is also renting space at WWoS for their games. They are going to be paying for the use of those facilities. That is more money coming in.
Then for the games, Disney is going to be doing all the filming, production, and sending of the game to whoeve is broadcasting it. That isn't coming free either.
Then for the games on ESPN/ABC and especially the NBA finals on ABC disney gets the advertising reveue from broadcasting them.

Last year, ads for the NBA finals were $700-900k.

There is a lot more money in the mix here then just the resort money.

 

[OKW Lover]

Also, just because I’ve been on a lot of WDW wedding forums lately, what about the wedding pavilion this summer? I know they’ve cancelled all of July, but I would have to assume now that other months are at risk as well because of the NBA at GF?

I can't imagine how having the NBA at the GF would have any impact on the wedding pavilion. Its not part of the GF. It has its own entrance and there is a further buffer in that the VGF are between it and the main part of GF.

 

[SarahC97]

The decisions being made are not really about fairness but are purely business-minded (i.e. what can the business handle and how we can maximize what we've got). That's something I think most of us can agree on. Believe it or not, that's also something of a departure for Disney. We (myself included) hound them for things like the cabana tents in Tomorrowland, but at the same time, most other amusement/theme park operators with the sort of lines WDW sees would have started charging for a queue bypass option years ago. With Disney, it's always been this delicate balance between business and what guests perceive as fairness. Due this severe interruption, that balance has shifted for the moment. They're not trying to upset guests; they're trying to make the logistical needs meet with the business needs meet with the Guest Experience. That's going to mean disappointment, but if you go in with an open mind (understanding you may not stay at the resort you want or even your second choice, you may not go a park everyday, you may not dine where, when, or how you want, you may not have everything offered you want and what is offered might cost more etc...), it is my understanding you'll be fine. That's all I feel comfortable saying at the moment.

Thanks for sharing. It's nice to think that if you can have an open mind, then the vacation can happen. I think for me at this point my biggest worry is simply that I won't be able to take the vacation. If I can, then I'm willing to roll with everything else.

 

[Eric Smith]

Correct...and I’m adding in (this may have been said already, this thread moves so quick!) so round 1 starts 8/17 (16 teams) then round 2 starts 9/1 which is only 8 teams. At that point (9/1) I wonder if all players will be at GDT. Disney said they’d reevaluate to free up cash rooms for regular guests. 9/15 is conference finals (only 4 teams).

I think I saw a statement yesterday that they will consolidate the teams down to two resorts and then one resort as the need for rooms decreases. That would also make sense as it probably doesn't make sense to tie up three resorts through this whole time period if most of the rooms aren't being used.

 

[hollyhap]

I think that most of us are expecting to not stay at our top resort choices at this point. Ha. I am supposed to checkin to FQ one month from today. We would rather stay at FQ than most deluxes and now with people saying CBR will be open, I assume we will move there which is fine! I just need to know! We will however cancel if we cant get into a park every day but before they shut down the reservation system I was checking availability daily and there was a TON of availability in all room categories (except Contemporary and CSR were showing completely full). I just dont see Disney maxing out when Universal wasn't even close. People don't want to wear masks in that heat. I think the first few days will be busier and then drop off. I'm in a ton of Disney mom facebook groups and for every 1 going, 10+ cancelled.

 

[merry_nbright]

Just a quick thought, I’m booked at Beach Club the first weekend in September. Am I looking too far into things in thinking that that’s why Storm Along Bay isn’t opening right away? Have I just simply lost my mind in this mess?

 

[Anthony Vito]

I think I saw a statement yesterday that they will consolidate the teams down to two resorts and then one resort as the need for rooms decreases. That would also make sense as it probably doesn't make sense to tie up three resorts through this whole time period if most of the rooms aren't being used.

I think it's also not just to not tie up the resorts, but it's more cost efficient to consolidate rather than the cost of using more than one site with twice the staffing, etc., when one site would suffice.

 

[Eric Smith]

When do you guys think they will realistically start taking new resort/package reservations?

I wouldn't hold my breath. When are you looking to go? Depending on how restricted park capacity is, it may be difficult to get a new reservation even in the fall.

 

[SierraT]

I don’t want to requote long posts but thanks Andyman for the rumored information and while I haven’t been reading here for very long it sounds like you’ve been right from the beginning. I think most of us know what’s going to happen now and the rumors from way back (that only certain types of resorts will be open) sounds more and more likely.

Good news is Disney isn’t going anywhere and maybe people will have opportunities to visit other places or plan to visit Disney World when it’s back to a somewhat typical environment. The whole thing makes me more sad than mad actually.

 

[Krandor]

Just a quick thought, I’m booked at Beach Club the first weekend in September. Am I looking too far into things in thinking that that’s why Storm Along Bay isn’t opening right away? Have I just simply lost my mind in this mess?

IMO due to the cost of running SAB they won't open it until both YC and BC are fully open to guests. When that will be is anybody's guess.

 

[CastAStone]

Every if everything was open disney isn't getting back to the $30-40M mark for a while. Right now they are just trying to cover all their fixed costs and incremental variable costs so it is not fair to compare it to the $30M-$40M because they are just not possible right now at all.

If I understood Chapek right, they aren't even trying to cover *all* their fixed costs. Just as much as they can. As soon as they cover incremental variable costs every additional dollar they take in is 1 less dollar than they are losing right now.

 

[Eric Smith]

The decisions being made are not really about fairness but are purely business-minded (i.e. what can the business handle and how we can maximize what we've got). That's something I think most of us can agree on. Believe it or not, that's also something of a departure for Disney. We (myself included) hound them for things like the cabana tents in Tomorrowland, but at the same time, most other amusement/theme park operators with the sort of lines WDW sees would have started charging for a queue bypass option years ago. With Disney, it's always been this delicate balance between business and what guests perceive as fairness. Due this severe interruption, that balance has shifted for the moment. They're not trying to upset guests; they're trying to make the logistical needs meet with the business needs meet with the Guest Experience. That's going to mean disappointment, but if you go in with an open mind (understanding you may not stay at the resort you want or even your second choice, you may not go a park everyday, you may not dine where, when, or how you want, you may not have everything offered you want and what is offered might cost more etc...), it is my understanding you'll be fine. That's all I feel comfortable saying at the moment.

The only thing in that list that would really bother me is not being able to go to a park everyday. I wouldn't mind if we couldn't get our first choice for every day, but I would really have a hard time justifying a trip and sitting around in the resort for a decent part of it.

 

[CastAStone]

I don’t want to requote long posts but thanks Andyman for the rumored information and while I haven’t been reading here for very long it sounds like you’ve been right from the beginning. I think most of us know what’s going to happen now and the rumors from way back (that only certain types of resorts will be open) sounds more and more likely.

Good news is Disney isn’t going anywhere and maybe people will have opportunities to visit other places or plan to visit Disney World when it’s back to a somewhat typical environment. The whole thing makes me more sad than mad actually.

andyman has been giving the inside scoop here for many years. You can trust that what he says is something real - but as any WDW insider will remind you, just because something was the plan yesterday doesn't mean it's still the plan today!