Hard to tell.... For good or bad, I don't think the decision will be solely based on the pandemic figures. These will be going up again. White House model predicts an increase somewhere between 1,800 to 3,000 deaths per day as soon as June 1. Businesses are reopening regardless of the pandemic numbers at this point.
Considerations to reopening:
First, not all counties in FL have started to open, including Miami/Dade, the largest population area in FL - this would go against Disney reopening
Second, Economics - the entire reason states like FL are reopening has to due with money (just stating a fact). With the theme parks being huge revenue generators for the state, I am sure there is pressure to reopen. - this would go towards Disney re-opening.
Third, Logistics - Disney needs time to get all their systems in place to handle the changes. For example, the reservation system, dining reservation system and park entry system needs to be updated for the new capacity limitations. Any new virtual queues are also big changes. These are IT projects that require coding and testing. Other areas are easier to change, such as taping off 6 ft. intervals and queuing changes. Disney will not reopen until these are in place.
Forth, Disney Springs - as many have stated, Disney Springs will probably open first. I think that announcement might come fairly soon. But keep in mind that bars cannot open under FL Phase I.