Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[HuskieJohn]

Well, Gov. Newsom has spoken, and it's pretty confusing in terms of "when";
Newsom Plans for lifting lockdown
Includes these six criteria which leaves it really open ended;


He's also said, check back in 2 weeks. Let the speculation begin...

After reading that it doesnt seem like DL will open before WDW.

 

[MichelinMan]

The IHME model predicts the peak for Florida will be May 3rd, how will Disney open on May 19th or even June 1st according to that?

Because that IHME model isn't that great. For example, it was predicting peak for the UK in another 5 days time at one point, when in reality we have already peaked.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

Because that IHME model isn't that great. For example, it was predicting peak for the UK in another 5 days time at one point, when in reality we have already peaked.

Have we? I apologise if this is a stupid question, but how do we know that we have peaked until we start coming down consistently?

 

[Lumpy1106]

After reading that it doesnt seem like DL will open before WDW.

I would agree, and in fact, I think WDW is better suited for the kind of measures that need to be taken. For example, you could, once testing is more readily available, test everyone before they enter "the bubble" and control who gets in. DL is wide open to all of So Cal, and is mostly attended by AP's, not visitors. i.e., there is no real bubble. Of course, FL is about 2 weeks behind CA peak-wise so there is that. To that end, I think it will be on Disney to figure this out, not FL.

 

[Jroceagles]

Yeah, I may keep my 2020 tickets now, and replan for spring 2021...I have an email where they promised a refund, but I still have never been to Hershey, and do still want to see the whole area for a few days...

Funny enough, I suggested this plan to them on their Facebook page 6 weeks ago...guess it takes awhile to face reality...

Well that's good news. Love Hershey!

 

[LSUmiss]

People pass out from the heat, or the masks are rendered useless because they’re soaked through with sweat (masks have to be dry to work).

And am I supposed to get my 2 yr old to wear a mask??? Good luck with that!

 

[fsjking]

And am I supposed to get my 2 yr old to wear a mask??? Good luck with that!

I want to see the pile of masks under all of the roller coasters.

 

[rteetz]

Just a reminder this is not a place to debate models.

 

[fsjking]

Just a reminder this is not a place to debate models.

Good thing too. Models just want to debate about which mascara and hair care products are better anyway.

 

[Vern60]

Sorry to bringing up 9/11 and starting this rabbit hole. My statement was more related to the drop in travel post 9/11. The US may implement a 14 day quarantine for international travelers, so that would definitely impact # of guests visiting Disney parks. But it would be interesting comparing post 9/11 attendance numbers and post covid attendance numbers. If only Disney released attendance stats ):

Honestly, I think I would rather fly now than just after 9/11. Somehow getting a virus with very good odds of surviving doesn't seem as frightening as slamming into a building at 500 mph.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

And am I supposed to get my 2 yr old to wear a mask??? Good luck with that!

Besides the fact that I know my youngest would not keep a mask on (he won’t even let me try the Mickey mask on that my MIL made for him), one of my favorite things about Disney trips is my kids’ smiles & reactions to everything. As sappy as that sounds ...

 

[Vern60]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1250139611810185222

That sounds encouraging! I just made reservations for August, about the latest we can go in the summer before band camp starts. I am feeling guilty though, wishing for diminished crowds and a free dining plan!!

 

[Brianstl]

Wearing mask at the parks isn't going to be practical.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Not the place for the facemask debate, so I'll just say I'd be much more open to a scenario where everyone is tested and given a wristband to show they are negative before entering "the World", then require everyone to use hand sanitizer before entering any cue, similar to what they do when you get on a cruise ship.

 

[Brianstl]

People have to stop thinking about the parks reopening with a set up that will stop anyone from getting the virus. That isn't going to happen. The same when it comes to opening up society again. You will have to take into count your risk factors before you go to the parks. If you are among the most vulnerable, you will still have to isolate yourself from everyone if you don't want to get the virus.

 

[e_yerger]

I think a test before you come onto WDW property has a 50/50 chance of being a requirement.

Similarly to Shanghai's QR code system

 

[Spridell]

Interesting piece of information just now at the Florida Daily Press Conference. Don't know if it's been mentioned here...

Disney asked the State of Florida to classify some employees as essential so things can be maintained around all the properties.

Agricultural was one of them

 

[Krandor]

I've been doing a lot of statistical analysis on the raw data (my area of expertise is applying statistical techniques to risk and reliability), and UK has definitely peaked. We will probably get a spike in numbers tomorrow, due to delays in the data over the Easter weekend, as there is always a weekend effect, but if you analyse the trends, then we have peaked - and now the IHME model agrees with that (but that is stating the obvious - easy to update the model when something has actually occurred!). I'm not sure that the USA has actually peaked yet from my statistics - I think it possibly has, but need a few more days of data to be certain. Today is likely to be a big spike - which is what I was warning people about over the weekend - due to the weekend effect on statistics.

I think that the IHME models are far too pessimistic on the growth in countries - but then conversely far too optimistic on how quickly the numbers come back down, if Italy is anything to go by.

For Florida, the IHME model just looks plain wrong. I think Florida is showing signs of peaking already - but I need another 3-4 days of data to be absolutely sure. Florida hasn't been following the same curve as most other countries. The reason I think that Florida has peaked is the number of new cases, using a 7 day average, has been dropping for a number of days now. Even accounting for the weekend effect, it is looking more and more like Florida might have peaked already. If I am correct, then that is a game changer for Disney. I am getting increasingly optimistic that Florida - and hence Disney - might be open for business much sooner than I expected.

What I will say is that if I have done this number crunching, then you can bet that Disney, who will employ statisticians and researchers more intelligent than myself, will be doing similar. And maybe why they are aiming for that 1st June date. I still think it is a bit early - but now not outside the realms of possibility like I thought last week.

I still think mid-june is most likely but I do agree the numbers are looking better. the danger of course if to open things in general too early and get a new spike so likely are going to want to see a bit on the downward side of things before large scale things like disney, sports, theaters open up. But things definitely appear to be getting better.

 

[MichelinMan]

Honestly, I think I would rather fly now than just after 9/11. Somehow getting a virus with very good odds of surviving doesn't seem as frightening as slamming into a building at 500 mph.

Really? I'm the complete opposite. The one part of our trip which is filling me with dread is the fact I will have to spend 8 hours in a metal tin can knowing that at least some of the passengers are likely carrying the virus. Being at Disney would be the least of my worries.

 

[Aurora0427]

Disneyland is not going to open this summer, I can almost guarantee it.

Newsome’s exact quote when asked about opening larger places:
“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to herd immunity and until we get to a vaccine. So large scale events that bring in hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of strangers... is not in the cards based on our current guidelines and current expectations."

Attached are 6 things that must be met in order to lift the stay at home order.