Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Krandor]

I think that window closed around August/September. There was still a tiny bit of hope in early October, but even then it was very optimistic hope. The reality is the best case now is when the vaccine is widely available, so around July-August at the earliest. Even if things get better in February, I think Newsom is going to want to air on the safe side and wait it out until a vaccine, which might ruffle some Disney and Universal feathers again.

The good part is we have some viable vaccines that seem to work really really well. UK has already approved one and US will likely follow in the next week or two I'd bet and then it becomes a supply/distribution issue. There is light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel is still longer then many (like myself) wish it was.

I speculated this on the rundisney forum earlier so I'll add it here to but it wouldn't shock me that in Q3/Q4 or 2021 things try to go back to normal but require proof of vacination. I could see rundisney wine & Dine being in that category... run the race but only with people with proof of vaccination. Sporting events and the like I could see do the same.

 

[KBoopaloo]

It won't be that long at all as others have said. Australia had a rugby match with a full house of a couple of weeks ago, almost 50,000 fans. The situation is obviously better there, but people will come back sooner than later. Definitely looking forward to those days again at Disney.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-of-origin-sporting-event-crowd-b1724931.html

Australia has had something like 27,000 cases total nationwide since January. We had over 200,000 TODAY. While I agree that things like sporting events and concerts will ramp up again quickly once a vaccine is widely available sometime next year, using an example from a country that never came close to having the kind of outbreak we’ve had is not at all comparable.

 

[Krandor]

Australia has had something like 27,000 cases total nationwide since January. We had over 200,000 TODAY. While I agree that things like sporting events and concerts will ramp up again quickly once a vaccine is widely available sometime next year, using an example from a country that never came close to having the kind of outbreak we’ve had is not at all comparable.

I am going to get the vaccine as soon as I can as long as the scientists like Fauchi say it looks safe and good to go. At that point I'm fine going back to crowded locations after I get that done.

But yes australia is not at all the same. Of course Xuxa is also one that though Disney was only going to require masks for a short period of time and the pressure from CMs and he public would end that really really quickly. Yet here we are and masks are still required and don't look to be going away soon.

 

[rteetz]

https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/ab...-adapt-to-changes-in-our-business-1234846110/

 

[andyman8]

https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/ab...-adapt-to-changes-in-our-business-1234846110/

Yes, the 4k additional layoffs from the SEC report seem to be mostly from areas outside of DPEP. ESPN has seen layoffs, various divisions of ABC/Walt Disney Television (including the aforementioned ABC News) are starting to see some and expecting more, and Walt Disney Studios will supposedly see some early next year.
It is worth noting that Disney has been sort of unusual in that, up until now, the (drastic) layoffs have been concentrated in the parks business. Other companies have opted to do more widespread reductions (like 10% of overall workforce). ABC News is also certainly not the only broadcast news organization to see layoffs as a result of COVID-19.

 

[Krandor]

https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/ab...-adapt-to-changes-in-our-business-1234846110/

Sucks for all involved. I hope and think things will improve next year but there are jobs that will be lost that are never coming back.

 

[xuxa777]

Australia has had something like 27,000 cases total nationwide since January. We had over 200,000 TODAY. While I agree that things like sporting events and concerts will ramp up again quickly once a vaccine is widely available sometime next year, using an example from a country that never came close to having the kind of outbreak we’ve had is not at all comparable.

Which is why I said the situation is better there.

 

[Mit88]

The good part is we have some viable vaccines that seem to work really really well. UK has already approved one and US will likely follow in the next week or two I'd bet and then it becomes a supply/distribution issue. There is light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel is still longer then many (like myself) wish it was.

I speculated this on the rundisney forum earlier so I'll add it here to but it wouldn't shock me that in Q3/Q4 or 2021 things try to go back to normal but require proof of vacination. I could see rundisney wine & Dine being in that category... run the race but only with people with proof of vaccination. Sporting events and the like I could see do the same.

I think we’re looking at a pretty long line ahead of Gen Pop receiving the vaccine. Why it’s even an argument that the priority list is the way it is is beyond me, but that’s a whole different conversation. I think MAYBE in the April-May-June area it’ll be widely distributed in the US, and that might even be hopefully optimistic. And then of course you need a certain % of the population to take it in order to get things really rolling again. As I’ve said before, I’m personally not afraid of a vaccine, but if I’m being honest, it’s a little sketchy that this all came together in a matter of 8 months. So many other things are still lingering out there decades later with no vaccine or cure. So I wouldn’t blame people for being weary at first, even if it means a slower return to normalcy, there could be long term effects that are catastrophic. I’ll feel a little better if by April/May, those that have taken it are healthy and experiencing no side effects, but that doesn’t mean the health and safety of those that take it are out of the woods. It could be years before we see any side effects.

Agreed on proof of Vaccination though. Theme park and Hotel use might be a little tough to require vaccination proof, but they absolutely could for RunDisney events, and they’d still sell out immediately. Same for sporting events and concerts (I know Ticketmaster plans on utilizing that)

 

[Mit88]

Oh no...Shuri

 

[MickeyWaffles]

I think we’re looking at a pretty long line ahead of Gen Pop receiving the vaccine. Why it’s even an argument that the priority list is the way it is is beyond me, but that’s a whole different conversation. I think MAYBE in the April-May-June area it’ll be widely distributed in the US, and that might even be hopefully optimistic. And then of course you need a certain % of the population to take it in order to get things really rolling again. As I’ve said before, I’m personally not afraid of a vaccine, but if I’m being honest, it’s a little sketchy that this all came together in a matter of 8 months. So many other things are still lingering out there decades later with no vaccine or cure. So I wouldn’t blame people for being weary at first, even if it means a slower return to normalcy, there could be long term effects that are catastrophic. I’ll feel a little better if by April/May, those that have taken it are healthy and experiencing no side effects, but that doesn’t mean the health and safety of those that take it are out of the woods. It could be years before we see any side effects.

Agreed on proof of Vaccination though. Theme park and Hotel use might be a little tough to require vaccination proof, but they absolutely could for RunDisney events, and they’d still sell out immediately. Same for sporting events and concerts (I know Ticketmaster plans on utilizing that)

Not to mention they need to do the adolescent age 12-17 trials followed by the under 12 trials. What if it doesn’t get approved for adolescents or the younger set?

Vaccine is a bright light in the distance to help provide a path to normalcy. I am pro vaccine. I’m cautiously optimistic about this. I like seeing good news about it. But it’s going to be a while before all adults can get it, even longer before kids can (hopefully it will be safe and get approved for them.)

 

[Mit88]

Not to mention they need to do the adolescent age 12-17 trials followed by the under 12 trials. What if it doesn’t get approved for adolescents or the younger set?

Vaccine is a bright light in the distance to help provide a path to normalcy. I am pro vaccine. I’m cautiously optimistic about this. I like seeing good news about it. But it’s going to be a while before all adults can get it, even longer before kids can (hopefully it will be safe and get approved for them.)

I thought they had the 12-17 age range and it was just 12 and under than remained. I must have misheard

 

[MickeyWaffles]

I thought they had the 12-17 age range and it was just 12 and under than remained. I must have misheard

You’re right! I was the one who misheard. Pfizer apparently started 12-17 in October.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I think we’re looking at a pretty long line ahead of Gen Pop receiving the vaccine. Why it’s even an argument that the priority list is the way it is is beyond me, but that’s a whole different conversation. I think MAYBE in the April-May-June area it’ll be widely distributed in the US, and that might even be hopefully optimistic. And then of course you need a certain % of the population to take it in order to get things really rolling again. As I’ve said before, I’m personally not afraid of a vaccine, but if I’m being honest, it’s a little sketchy that this all came together in a matter of 8 months. So many other things are still lingering out there decades later with no vaccine or cure. So I wouldn’t blame people for being weary at first, even if it means a slower return to normalcy, there could be long term effects that are catastrophic. I’ll feel a little better if by April/May, those that have taken it are healthy and experiencing no side effects, but that doesn’t mean the health and safety of those that take it are out of the woods. It could be years before we see any side effects.

Agreed on proof of Vaccination though. Theme park and Hotel use might be a little tough to require vaccination proof, but they absolutely could for RunDisney events, and they’d still sell out immediately. Same for sporting events and concerts (I know Ticketmaster plans on utilizing that)

Also I just heard from a friend who works at a university who was informed that even after the vaccine is widely available they they will still be maintaining social distancing and requiring masks, b/c the vaccine doesn't make you immune, it just lessens the chance of getting it and lessens the symptoms but even with the vaccine that if you have it you can still pass it to others

Just made me think that it make sense - not like the regular flu shot makes you completely immune to the seasonal flu - but also that is another reason Disney may require masks and stuff for a lot longer than people might think they need to

 

[Farro]

Guys, all I'm going to say about the vaccine is that please read official/verified/ information about it from trusted sources. Not hearsay.

There is already a lot of misinformation going around - I see it even on these boards already - and it's so, so important that people get this vaccine. It wasn't rushed if you research how it came about. We all listen to Fauci, so listen to him now.

I will purposely stay out of this conversation because it's something I'm super passionate about.

 

[osufeth24]

Also I just heard from a friend who works at a university who was informed that even after the vaccine is widely available they they will still be maintaining social distancing and requiring masks, b/c the vaccine doesn't make you immune, it just lessens the chance of getting it and lessens the symptoms but even with the vaccine that if you have it you can still pass it to others

Just made me think that it make sense - not like the regular flu shot makes you completely immune to the seasonal flu - but also that is another reason Disney may require masks and stuff for a lot longer than people might think they need to

It's not true though

"
Asked someone who's in biomedical about it and this was the response

"

expand...

The current seasonal flu vaccine is one of the worst vaccines for efficacy, it usually provides between 40-60% protection. This is due to so many strains and mutations, however better universal flu vaccines are coming that should have much better protection and not be needed each year.

COVID vaccines using mRNA are looking at 94+% effective and may be close to 100% effective at preventing severe disease. Also the MOA of mRNA and the relative stability of COVID means vaccination should last for several years or longer.

 

[Farro]

Oh no...Shuri

That was disappointing to say the least...

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It's not true though

"
Asked someone who's in biomedical about it and this was the response

"

The current seasonal flu vaccine is one of the worst vaccines for efficacy, it usually provides between 40-60% protection. This is due to so many strains and mutations, however better universal flu vaccines are coming that should have much better protection and not be needed each year.

COVID vaccines using mRNA are looking at 94+% effective and may be close to 100% effective at preventing severe disease. Also the MOA of mRNA and the relative stability of COVID means vaccination should last for several years or longer.

Interesting - he works at a major, major university and this is what they were informed and that masks and social distancing would be in place for at least all of 2021

 

[mattpeto]

Also I just heard from a friend who works at a university who was informed that even after the vaccine is widely available they they will still be maintaining social distancing and requiring masks, b/c the vaccine doesn't make you immune, it just lessens the chance of getting it and lessens the symptoms but even with the vaccine that if you have it you can still pass it to others

Just made me think that it make sense - not like the regular flu shot makes you completely immune to the seasonal flu - but also that is another reason Disney may require masks and stuff for a lot longer than people might think they need to

That makes sense, but I think the reality is going to be different and accelerated.

I will commend colleges, schools and businesses for taking the long approach, but Disney is still a tourist destination. It's going to be interesting to see what happens to people when they actually have the vaccine. It's hard to imagine that people with the vaccine won't feel a degree of invincibility and will accept masks wearing for a longer period of time.

My prediction: The social distancing protocols and masks will fade away at Disney World by the end of 2021.

 

[osufeth24]

Interesting - he works at a major, major university and this is what they were informed and that masks and social distancing would be in place for at least all of 2021

I mean that part could easily be true. But I'm just saying it won't be because of the effectiveness of the vaccines

 

[Farro]

I mean that part could easily be true. But I'm just saying it won't be because of the effectiveness of the vaccines

It will be in effect until enough people get vaccinated. Or if we see deaths and hospitalizations drop (which is the hope with vaccinating long term care residents first), then masks/etc could drop sooner.