Crowd Outlook

[Suger Mag]

Really hoping that 4 day ticket deal gets extended through Dec... doubt it, but hoping

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I did our dining reservations today for our Oct trip, and was able to snag CRT, Artist Point, Be our Guest, and Cali Grill, they all had pretty open availability. For me in the past those were all pretty difficult. We also got a cabana rental at GF and I’ve never been able to grab one. It’s just spelling out a light fall season at least so far imo

 

[Minnie1222]

I stand corrected. For some reason I thought that was almost never offered. The sheer length of discounts this year seems to be notable

We always had some type of AP room discount pre-Covid. Sometimes it was just a lowly 10-15% in late December, but many other times it was 35-40%.

 

[Minnie1222]

They are also higher in most cases. Up to 40% off is the highest they have ever had.

Is the 40% for the remaining of this year? I'm in need of a room in late September and mid-December.

 

[wabbott]

I saw a piece several days ago about why the author thought spending had been staying strong all year, despite interest rate increases. Said it was due to YOLO spenders: You Only Live Once. But even that sooner or later runs up against the hard reality of only so much money go around. Over the years, I've kinda paid attention to Siegel - he has a touch of common sense.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yolo-spenders-propping-economy-says-111451321.html

‘YOLO’ spenders are propping up the economy, says Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel—but they’re about to run out of cash
Eleanor Pringle
July 12, 2023

When the warm weather vanishes at the end of this summer season, it could take the economy’s unexpected buoyancy with it.

According to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, the U.S. economy appears to be “progressing smoothly, with a resilient consumer impervious to the impact of higher borrowing costs.”

These spenders are the “YOLO (you only live once) consumers” who, Siegel believes, are spending the last of their cash reserves on traveling and enjoying the summer.

However, the Russell E. Palmer professor emeritus of finance warned that this could signal “the last good stretches for the economy before the summer ends and credit card bills come due.” He added that in the past, when students return to school in September and October, this has previously made for some “dicey periods for the markets.”

Professor Siegel also issued a warning to the Fed, to which he has previously appealed to pause rate hikes. The finance and economics expert said it would be a “mistake” for the Fed to wait until it saw a downturn in the jobs market before it began easing rate hikes.

“The Fed needs to only look back at its own experience calling inflation transitory to see how long it could take for inflation to turn around—and once a weakening in the economy kicks in, it could come fast,” professor Siegel wrote in his weekly WisdomTree note.

Yet Siegel believes there will neither be crisis or complete calm on the markets, saying: “I do not think the second half of the year will be a great time for the markets, but I don’t see it deteriorating dramatically either.

“There will be a battle in the market dynamics between recession fears and a slowdown, with thoughts the Fed will respond by bringing in more accommodation and lowering rates.”

‘The Bond King’ agrees

Legendary billionaire investor Bill Gross has also said he believes the coffers of American consumers will run dry by the end of the year.

Bill Gross
@real_bill_gross

It’s fiscal policy not just monetary policy — stupid.4 trillion of Covid spending still dripping into economy with consumers still spending their last 500 billion or so.The trick is when to time the end of it. 4th quarter is best guess.

1:26 PM · Jul 10, 2023

Experts have long believed the Fed was going to push the public to the “point of pain” in order to get demand-driven inflation under control, with Bank of America analysts predicting in March that “the Fed might have to raise rates closer to 6% to get inflation back to target.”

Currently inflation stands at 3.1%—the lowest since March 2021—after the Fed has hiked rates to the 5.00% to 5.25% range, with warnings it may push through two more 25-basis-point hikes before the year is out.

And the theory of Gross—known as “the Bond King” for having cofounded fixed-income giant Pimco before managing its flagship bond fund—fits with that timeline.

The Wall Street titan reportedly worth $2.6 billion tweeted Monday: “4 trillion of COVID spending still dripping into economy with consumers still spending their last $500 billion or so. The trick is when to time the end of it.
“Fourth quarter is best guess.”

Gross isn’t the only one warning of a cash crunch. Back in October, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon also warned that consumer spending would run out this summer, after being battered by inflation from volatile energy prices and ongoing uncertainty arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, has been warning of a consumer recession for more than a year, initially predicting the slowdown would fall during Christmas of 2022.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Id love to see free dining come back. Id book a trip for next year if they offered it then.

We're debating on doing disney or going back to NYC again next year. Free dining will get us to Disney next year.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Id love to see free dining come back. Id book a trip for next year if they offered it then.

We're debating on doing disney or going back to NYC again next year. Free dining will get us to Disney next year.

just wondering, if they offered a room discount equal to the dining plan would you take that?

 

[ChipnDale79]

just wondering, if they offered a room discount equal to the dining plan would you take that?

probably not, but here's why, i have a family of 4, with 4 disney adults. I think the only way that would happen would would be a deluxe resort, and i believe the total price would be way more. so honestly, i'm not sure a room only discount would save us money over free dining.

We either stay at a value or a moderate. Every time ive done the math, the dining plan saves us more money.

if it were apples to apples and the trip was the same price, i really dont care what discount i picked. for my family, the dining plan is such a cost savings.

 

[RichVIII]

It seems like the margins on a hotel room versus “free” dining would be better given the rising costs of food. Of course the Mouse always makes money.

 

[katyjeka]

A little of subject but we just got back from Yellowstone/Grand Teton (July)and was surprised at the lack of crowds. Our previous trip was June 2022 and Yellowstone was packed. We were able to get the hotels we wanted and was able to extend a couple at the last moment. The bartender at Old Faithful Inn told us it was the slowest he remembered in quite a few years. I work one day a week at a Hilton property.I'm responsible for making group reservations and billing and have seen a big decrease in sales.People who would normally spend the weekend for a wedding are now reducing the stay to one night.The Pittsburgh Steelers training camp is a mile from our property and we are usually sold out at a crazy price.Not this year. I do believe people are traveling but I think they have reduced the length of their trip or are staying closer to home.I'm just starting to plan our September 2024 trip to WDW. I'm hoping the crowd trend stays as is... We sure would appreciate free dining but we will be going regardless.I can't wait for the MNSSHP, its our favorite event at Disney.

 

[wabbott]

Everyone (including us) went to Europe this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/travel/overcrowded-europe-summer.html

Going to Europe This Summer? You’re Not Alone.

After three years of pandemic restrictions, travelers are flocking to Europe in record numbers, despite high airfares, limited accommodations and crowded sites. Here’s what you might encounter.

By Ceylan Yeginsu, Anna Momigliano and Joe Orovic
June 27, 2023

Between the time that Aiden Judson and his wife, Laura, picked Sicily as their honeymoon destination and their actual trip in early June, something significant happened: the second season of “The White Lotus.”

The New York couple had imagined a quiet getaway, hiking across the nearby Aeolian Islands and plunging into the crystal turquoise waters of the Tyrrhenian Sea, far from crowded Italian beach destinations like Capri and the Amalfi coast.

But then HBO released the second season of its hit show, set mainly in San Domenico Palace, a Four Seasons hotel and former Dominican monastery in the cliff-top town of Taormina. While the luxury hotel may be out of reach for tourists on a budget, the show’s idyllic Sicilian setting made the Italian island one of the most sought-after destinations in 2023.
“When we watched the show, we were so excited, like ‘wow, that’s going to be us,’ and didn’t realize that it would mean everyone and their mom would be going to Sicily this summer,” said Mr. Judson, 37, who returned from the island earlier this month. “It was still stunning and we had some special moments, but it was crazy busy with loud and sweaty tourists packed into narrow streets. It made it difficult to feel the Italian charm.”

Sicily isn’t the only European destination bustling with tourists ahead of the peak summer season in July and August. After three years of pandemic restrictions, travelers are flocking to Europe in record numbers, despite high airfares, limited accommodations, sweltering heat and crowded sites.

Among American travelers, Europe is the most popular destination this year, according to Hopper’s “Summer Travel to Europe” report. Demand has already outpaced 2019 levels, according to the report, even as hotel prices surge and airfares are the highest in five years. London, Paris, Rome, Lisbon and Athens are among the most booked cities on the Hopper travel app, and the Sicilian city of Palermo, which is also featured in “The White Lotus,” is among the top trending destinations.

“We have to make up for the lost time,” said Elizabeth Hughes, 44, an occupational therapist from Chicago, who made a scrapbook of places she wanted to visit in Europe during the height of the pandemic. She is currently in London, starting a four-week itinerary in eight countries, including France, Italy and Greece. “I had to sell my car to pull this off, but if I’m traveling this far, I’m going to see everywhere,” she said.

Demand has been so high that many travel advisers have had to turn away clients looking to book vacations in popular European destinations in July and August because of a lack of availability.
“Two weeks ago I had a last-minute request for Greece and I reached out to my suppliers to see if there was any way to accommodate them. But there was nothing, so, unfortunately, I had to turn down business,” said Abby Lagman, the founder of the Blissful Travel Company, a U.S.-based travel agency.

Ms. Lagman has been encouraging her clients wanting to visit European hot spots to postpone to the fall, when there is more availability and fewer crowds.

International tourists aren’t the only ones behind the spring and early summer rebound. This year, most Europeans are planning to travel before August, the busiest vacation month, to get ahead of rising travel costs and extreme weather conditions, according to a survey carried out by the European Travel Commission. Attractions such as the Louvre in Paris and the Vatican in Rome are already teeming with tourists who had to wait an hour or more in line to get inside. Many hotels are already full, according to online booking sites, and cafes and restaurants in popular cities are overflowing.

In June, Italy saw an estimated 8.6 percent growth in the number of foreign visitors arriving by plane, compared to the same period in 2019 (one of the busiest years ever for Italian tourism), with Americans making up the largest nationality among international visitors, according to the country’s Ministry of Tourism. Italians celebrating a series of national holidays in recent months contributed to the pre-summer frenzy; overall they account for half of the country’s tourists.
Stephanie Geddie, a 36-year-old nurse from Tulsa, Okla., visited Italy with her husband during the shoulder season in late April. She had hoped to dodge the summer crowds, but Florence and Rome were even more packed than they were in the summer of 2008 when Ms. Geddie studied in Italy.

She knew the Colosseum would be crowded, but made sure to prebook to avoid waiting in line. But when they actually got in, they could barely move through the shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. “It was a sea of people and any picture you took had 75 strangers in it,” she said. “It was a bit disheartening.”

Times travel reporters. When our writers review a destination, they do not accept free or discounted services or, in most cases, reveal that they work for The Times. We want their experience to be what you can expect.
Did you find this information helpful?

Venice, which attracts large numbers of tourists year round, is even more crowded than usual, according to local travel industry members. What has been most striking is that areas outside of tourism hot spots like St. Mark’s Square are now filling up with visitors.

On a recent day, the Ponte de San Paternian — a lesser-known bridge in the St. Marks area — was packed with tourists taking selfies. The two-euro (just over $2) gondolas known as traghetti, one of Venice’s last-kept local secrets, had a line of tourists waiting to board in the San Polo district.

“Venice is used to mass tourism, but what I’m seeing right now is something new — places that hardly used to be crowded are now crowded. Weekdays that used to be quiet are now busy almost like the weekends,” said Guido Moltedo, who has lived in Venice 12 years and manages the local magazine Ytali.

“There are places like Campo San Giacomo that are packed with tourists drinking spritz,” he said, referring to the square that is known to locals as the “campo of the Venetian people” for its lack of tourists. “Venice is close to saturation, if it’s not saturated already,” he added.

The Croatian city of Dubrovnik, its white ramparts best known as King’s Landing in the HBO show “Game of Thrones,” is another destination that is grappling with the issue of overtourism. In the first five months of 2023 it saw a 46 percent increase in arrivals compared to the same period last year. It recently surpassed Venice as the most “over-touristed” city in Europe, according to a report published by Holidu, the online vacation home rental agency.

Marija Grazio, a 58-year-old pianist and occasional tour guide, lives next to St. Blaise’s Church within Dubrovnik’s old city walls, one of the most popular tourist areas.

“It’s impossible to create a normal, organized life,” she said, recalling a time two years ago when her mother fell sick, and the emergency services were unable to get to her apartment.

“It’s as if you are in the jungle, you wonder if you will stay alive,” she said. “Imagine 8,000 tourists, what if something happens? Dubrovnik needs to be looked at like a stadium hosting a major event. There are only two emergency exits.”

She also complained about the noise, saying that she had invested in triple-paneled wooden windows and shutters in the last two years to help keep out the racket. “I live like a hamster. I can’t sleep with the window open at night,” she said.

Tourists have also been flocking to the Croatian city of Split and its surroundings, known for its azure shores. The return of crowds means Croatia’s southern Dalmatian coast has restarted its ongoing battle with young and sometimes reckless partygoers. Recent headlines showcase various incursions into local life, from climbing onto public monuments to drunk guests stumbling along cobblestone streets and relieving themselves in public. In response, Split’s City Council has passed a slew of fines. Disorderly behavior — drinking close to schools, climbing on monuments, bathing in fountains, defecating and sleeping in public areas — now carry a 300-euro fine, about $327. Vomiting on public surfaces costs half as much.

Yet despite the issues that overcrowding and reckless behavior can bring to local communities, many people across Europe are happy and relieved to have tourists back.

“The city was so dead and depressing without tourists, the energy was completely off,” said Melissa Cruz, a bag designer and tour guide in Lisbon. “I’ve never seen the streets as full as they are now, the city is completely alive.”

While some tourists have been surprised and frustrated by the crowds, especially those who tried to beat them by coming in the spring or early summer, others are grateful for the opportunity to travel again, with or without throngs of visitors.

“When you visit London, you have to expect crowds at the Tate, or the British Museum or the London Eye,” Ms. Hughes, the occupational therapist from Chicago, said, referring to some of the city’s main attractions. “But there’s also a lot of opportunities to find the lesser-known places. It’s a huge city, you just need to budget some time to explore.”

 

[Smugpugmug]

Everyone (including us) went to Europe this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/travel/overcrowded-europe-summer.html

Going to Europe This Summer? You’re Not Alone.

After three years of pandemic restrictions, travelers are flocking to Europe in record numbers, despite high airfares, limited accommodations and crowded sites. Here’s what you might encounter.

By Ceylan Yeginsu, Anna Momigliano and Joe Orovic
June 27, 2023

Between the time that Aiden Judson and his wife, Laura, picked Sicily as their honeymoon destination and their actual trip in early June, something significant happened: the second season of “The White Lotus.”

The New York couple had imagined a quiet getaway, hiking across the nearby Aeolian Islands and plunging into the crystal turquoise waters of the Tyrrhenian Sea, far from crowded Italian beach destinations like Capri and the Amalfi coast.

But then HBO released the second season of its hit show, set mainly in San Domenico Palace, a Four Seasons hotel and former Dominican monastery in the cliff-top town of Taormina. While the luxury hotel may be out of reach for tourists on a budget, the show’s idyllic Sicilian setting made the Italian island one of the most sought-after destinations in 2023.
“When we watched the show, we were so excited, like ‘wow, that’s going to be us,’ and didn’t realize that it would mean everyone and their mom would be going to Sicily this summer,” said Mr. Judson, 37, who returned from the island earlier this month. “It was still stunning and we had some special moments, but it was crazy busy with loud and sweaty tourists packed into narrow streets. It made it difficult to feel the Italian charm.”

Sicily isn’t the only European destination bustling with tourists ahead of the peak summer season in July and August. After three years of pandemic restrictions, travelers are flocking to Europe in record numbers, despite high airfares, limited accommodations, sweltering heat and crowded sites.

Among American travelers, Europe is the most popular destination this year, according to Hopper’s “Summer Travel to Europe” report. Demand has already outpaced 2019 levels, according to the report, even as hotel prices surge and airfares are the highest in five years. London, Paris, Rome, Lisbon and Athens are among the most booked cities on the Hopper travel app, and the Sicilian city of Palermo, which is also featured in “The White Lotus,” is among the top trending destinations.

“We have to make up for the lost time,” said Elizabeth Hughes, 44, an occupational therapist from Chicago, who made a scrapbook of places she wanted to visit in Europe during the height of the pandemic. She is currently in London, starting a four-week itinerary in eight countries, including France, Italy and Greece. “I had to sell my car to pull this off, but if I’m traveling this far, I’m going to see everywhere,” she said.

Demand has been so high that many travel advisers have had to turn away clients looking to book vacations in popular European destinations in July and August because of a lack of availability.
“Two weeks ago I had a last-minute request for Greece and I reached out to my suppliers to see if there was any way to accommodate them. But there was nothing, so, unfortunately, I had to turn down business,” said Abby Lagman, the founder of the Blissful Travel Company, a U.S.-based travel agency.

Ms. Lagman has been encouraging her clients wanting to visit European hot spots to postpone to the fall, when there is more availability and fewer crowds.

International tourists aren’t the only ones behind the spring and early summer rebound. This year, most Europeans are planning to travel before August, the busiest vacation month, to get ahead of rising travel costs and extreme weather conditions, according to a survey carried out by the European Travel Commission. Attractions such as the Louvre in Paris and the Vatican in Rome are already teeming with tourists who had to wait an hour or more in line to get inside. Many hotels are already full, according to online booking sites, and cafes and restaurants in popular cities are overflowing.

In June, Italy saw an estimated 8.6 percent growth in the number of foreign visitors arriving by plane, compared to the same period in 2019 (one of the busiest years ever for Italian tourism), with Americans making up the largest nationality among international visitors, according to the country’s Ministry of Tourism. Italians celebrating a series of national holidays in recent months contributed to the pre-summer frenzy; overall they account for half of the country’s tourists.
Stephanie Geddie, a 36-year-old nurse from Tulsa, Okla., visited Italy with her husband during the shoulder season in late April. She had hoped to dodge the summer crowds, but Florence and Rome were even more packed than they were in the summer of 2008 when Ms. Geddie studied in Italy.

She knew the Colosseum would be crowded, but made sure to prebook to avoid waiting in line. But when they actually got in, they could barely move through the shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. “It was a sea of people and any picture you took had 75 strangers in it,” she said. “It was a bit disheartening.”

Times travel reporters. When our writers review a destination, they do not accept free or discounted services or, in most cases, reveal that they work for The Times. We want their experience to be what you can expect.
Did you find this information helpful?

Venice, which attracts large numbers of tourists year round, is even more crowded than usual, according to local travel industry members. What has been most striking is that areas outside of tourism hot spots like St. Mark’s Square are now filling up with visitors.

On a recent day, the Ponte de San Paternian — a lesser-known bridge in the St. Marks area — was packed with tourists taking selfies. The two-euro (just over $2) gondolas known as traghetti, one of Venice’s last-kept local secrets, had a line of tourists waiting to board in the San Polo district.

“Venice is used to mass tourism, but what I’m seeing right now is something new — places that hardly used to be crowded are now crowded. Weekdays that used to be quiet are now busy almost like the weekends,” said Guido Moltedo, who has lived in Venice 12 years and manages the local magazine Ytali.

“There are places like Campo San Giacomo that are packed with tourists drinking spritz,” he said, referring to the square that is known to locals as the “campo of the Venetian people” for its lack of tourists. “Venice is close to saturation, if it’s not saturated already,” he added.

The Croatian city of Dubrovnik, its white ramparts best known as King’s Landing in the HBO show “Game of Thrones,” is another destination that is grappling with the issue of overtourism. In the first five months of 2023 it saw a 46 percent increase in arrivals compared to the same period last year. It recently surpassed Venice as the most “over-touristed” city in Europe, according to a report published by Holidu, the online vacation home rental agency.

Marija Grazio, a 58-year-old pianist and occasional tour guide, lives next to St. Blaise’s Church within Dubrovnik’s old city walls, one of the most popular tourist areas.

“It’s impossible to create a normal, organized life,” she said, recalling a time two years ago when her mother fell sick, and the emergency services were unable to get to her apartment.

“It’s as if you are in the jungle, you wonder if you will stay alive,” she said. “Imagine 8,000 tourists, what if something happens? Dubrovnik needs to be looked at like a stadium hosting a major event. There are only two emergency exits.”

She also complained about the noise, saying that she had invested in triple-paneled wooden windows and shutters in the last two years to help keep out the racket. “I live like a hamster. I can’t sleep with the window open at night,” she said.

Tourists have also been flocking to the Croatian city of Split and its surroundings, known for its azure shores. The return of crowds means Croatia’s southern Dalmatian coast has restarted its ongoing battle with young and sometimes reckless partygoers. Recent headlines showcase various incursions into local life, from climbing onto public monuments to drunk guests stumbling along cobblestone streets and relieving themselves in public. In response, Split’s City Council has passed a slew of fines. Disorderly behavior — drinking close to schools, climbing on monuments, bathing in fountains, defecating and sleeping in public areas — now carry a 300-euro fine, about $327. Vomiting on public surfaces costs half as much.

Yet despite the issues that overcrowding and reckless behavior can bring to local communities, many people across Europe are happy and relieved to have tourists back.

“The city was so dead and depressing without tourists, the energy was completely off,” said Melissa Cruz, a bag designer and tour guide in Lisbon. “I’ve never seen the streets as full as they are now, the city is completely alive.”

While some tourists have been surprised and frustrated by the crowds, especially those who tried to beat them by coming in the spring or early summer, others are grateful for the opportunity to travel again, with or without throngs of visitors.

“When you visit London, you have to expect crowds at the Tate, or the British Museum or the London Eye,” Ms. Hughes, the occupational therapist from Chicago, said, referring to some of the city’s main attractions. “But there’s also a lot of opportunities to find the lesser-known places. It’s a huge city, you just need to budget some time to explore.”

The insane crowds European sites had this summer convinced me to always go during the off season and never during the summer months. If I'm going to Italy, it'll be in like October or something.

 

[Moliphino]

Everyone (including us) went to Europe this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/travel/overcrowded-europe-summer.html

Going to Europe This Summer? You’re Not Alone.

After three years of pandemic restrictions, travelers are flocking to Europe in record numbers, despite high airfares, limited accommodations and crowded sites. Here’s what you might encounter.

By Ceylan Yeginsu, Anna Momigliano and Joe Orovic
June 27, 2023

Between the time that Aiden Judson and his wife, Laura, picked Sicily as their honeymoon destination and their actual trip in early June, something significant happened: the second season of “The White Lotus.”

The New York couple had imagined a quiet getaway, hiking across the nearby Aeolian Islands and plunging into the crystal turquoise waters of the Tyrrhenian Sea, far from crowded Italian beach destinations like Capri and the Amalfi coast.

But then HBO released the second season of its hit show, set mainly in San Domenico Palace, a Four Seasons hotel and former Dominican monastery in the cliff-top town of Taormina. While the luxury hotel may be out of reach for tourists on a budget, the show’s idyllic Sicilian setting made the Italian island one of the most sought-after destinations in 2023.
“When we watched the show, we were so excited, like ‘wow, that’s going to be us,’ and didn’t realize that it would mean everyone and their mom would be going to Sicily this summer,” said Mr. Judson, 37, who returned from the island earlier this month. “It was still stunning and we had some special moments, but it was crazy busy with loud and sweaty tourists packed into narrow streets. It made it difficult to feel the Italian charm.”

Sicily isn’t the only European destination bustling with tourists ahead of the peak summer season in July and August. After three years of pandemic restrictions, travelers are flocking to Europe in record numbers, despite high airfares, limited accommodations, sweltering heat and crowded sites.

Among American travelers, Europe is the most popular destination this year, according to Hopper’s “Summer Travel to Europe” report. Demand has already outpaced 2019 levels, according to the report, even as hotel prices surge and airfares are the highest in five years. London, Paris, Rome, Lisbon and Athens are among the most booked cities on the Hopper travel app, and the Sicilian city of Palermo, which is also featured in “The White Lotus,” is among the top trending destinations.

“We have to make up for the lost time,” said Elizabeth Hughes, 44, an occupational therapist from Chicago, who made a scrapbook of places she wanted to visit in Europe during the height of the pandemic. She is currently in London, starting a four-week itinerary in eight countries, including France, Italy and Greece. “I had to sell my car to pull this off, but if I’m traveling this far, I’m going to see everywhere,” she said.

Demand has been so high that many travel advisers have had to turn away clients looking to book vacations in popular European destinations in July and August because of a lack of availability.
“Two weeks ago I had a last-minute request for Greece and I reached out to my suppliers to see if there was any way to accommodate them. But there was nothing, so, unfortunately, I had to turn down business,” said Abby Lagman, the founder of the Blissful Travel Company, a U.S.-based travel agency.

Ms. Lagman has been encouraging her clients wanting to visit European hot spots to postpone to the fall, when there is more availability and fewer crowds.

International tourists aren’t the only ones behind the spring and early summer rebound. This year, most Europeans are planning to travel before August, the busiest vacation month, to get ahead of rising travel costs and extreme weather conditions, according to a survey carried out by the European Travel Commission. Attractions such as the Louvre in Paris and the Vatican in Rome are already teeming with tourists who had to wait an hour or more in line to get inside. Many hotels are already full, according to online booking sites, and cafes and restaurants in popular cities are overflowing.

In June, Italy saw an estimated 8.6 percent growth in the number of foreign visitors arriving by plane, compared to the same period in 2019 (one of the busiest years ever for Italian tourism), with Americans making up the largest nationality among international visitors, according to the country’s Ministry of Tourism. Italians celebrating a series of national holidays in recent months contributed to the pre-summer frenzy; overall they account for half of the country’s tourists.
Stephanie Geddie, a 36-year-old nurse from Tulsa, Okla., visited Italy with her husband during the shoulder season in late April. She had hoped to dodge the summer crowds, but Florence and Rome were even more packed than they were in the summer of 2008 when Ms. Geddie studied in Italy.

She knew the Colosseum would be crowded, but made sure to prebook to avoid waiting in line. But when they actually got in, they could barely move through the shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. “It was a sea of people and any picture you took had 75 strangers in it,” she said. “It was a bit disheartening.”

Times travel reporters. When our writers review a destination, they do not accept free or discounted services or, in most cases, reveal that they work for The Times. We want their experience to be what you can expect.
Did you find this information helpful?

Venice, which attracts large numbers of tourists year round, is even more crowded than usual, according to local travel industry members. What has been most striking is that areas outside of tourism hot spots like St. Mark’s Square are now filling up with visitors.

On a recent day, the Ponte de San Paternian — a lesser-known bridge in the St. Marks area — was packed with tourists taking selfies. The two-euro (just over $2) gondolas known as traghetti, one of Venice’s last-kept local secrets, had a line of tourists waiting to board in the San Polo district.

“Venice is used to mass tourism, but what I’m seeing right now is something new — places that hardly used to be crowded are now crowded. Weekdays that used to be quiet are now busy almost like the weekends,” said Guido Moltedo, who has lived in Venice 12 years and manages the local magazine Ytali.

“There are places like Campo San Giacomo that are packed with tourists drinking spritz,” he said, referring to the square that is known to locals as the “campo of the Venetian people” for its lack of tourists. “Venice is close to saturation, if it’s not saturated already,” he added.

The Croatian city of Dubrovnik, its white ramparts best known as King’s Landing in the HBO show “Game of Thrones,” is another destination that is grappling with the issue of overtourism. In the first five months of 2023 it saw a 46 percent increase in arrivals compared to the same period last year. It recently surpassed Venice as the most “over-touristed” city in Europe, according to a report published by Holidu, the online vacation home rental agency.

Marija Grazio, a 58-year-old pianist and occasional tour guide, lives next to St. Blaise’s Church within Dubrovnik’s old city walls, one of the most popular tourist areas.

“It’s impossible to create a normal, organized life,” she said, recalling a time two years ago when her mother fell sick, and the emergency services were unable to get to her apartment.

“It’s as if you are in the jungle, you wonder if you will stay alive,” she said. “Imagine 8,000 tourists, what if something happens? Dubrovnik needs to be looked at like a stadium hosting a major event. There are only two emergency exits.”

She also complained about the noise, saying that she had invested in triple-paneled wooden windows and shutters in the last two years to help keep out the racket. “I live like a hamster. I can’t sleep with the window open at night,” she said.

Tourists have also been flocking to the Croatian city of Split and its surroundings, known for its azure shores. The return of crowds means Croatia’s southern Dalmatian coast has restarted its ongoing battle with young and sometimes reckless partygoers. Recent headlines showcase various incursions into local life, from climbing onto public monuments to drunk guests stumbling along cobblestone streets and relieving themselves in public. In response, Split’s City Council has passed a slew of fines. Disorderly behavior — drinking close to schools, climbing on monuments, bathing in fountains, defecating and sleeping in public areas — now carry a 300-euro fine, about $327. Vomiting on public surfaces costs half as much.

Yet despite the issues that overcrowding and reckless behavior can bring to local communities, many people across Europe are happy and relieved to have tourists back.

“The city was so dead and depressing without tourists, the energy was completely off,” said Melissa Cruz, a bag designer and tour guide in Lisbon. “I’ve never seen the streets as full as they are now, the city is completely alive.”

While some tourists have been surprised and frustrated by the crowds, especially those who tried to beat them by coming in the spring or early summer, others are grateful for the opportunity to travel again, with or without throngs of visitors.

“When you visit London, you have to expect crowds at the Tate, or the British Museum or the London Eye,” Ms. Hughes, the occupational therapist from Chicago, said, referring to some of the city’s main attractions. “But there’s also a lot of opportunities to find the lesser-known places. It’s a huge city, you just need to budget some time to explore.”

We've been picking Europe over Disney since fall 2021. This year we were a bit ahead of the summer crowds for Spain (April/May - though I did notice way more Americans in general on this trip) and hopefully missing them on the other end in October in Switzerland.

 

[wabbott]

The insane crowds European sites had this summer convinced me to always go during the off season and never during the summer months. If I'm going to Italy, it'll be in like October or something.

I think that's a wise choice. It was crazy hot when we were there in mid-July, in addition to the crowds. We visited since we had scheduled a Rhine River cruise during the warmer months, and then went to Switzerland and Italy afterwards. The temperatures kinda took away from the Venice visit, but I'm glad we went. Tons of history there.

Being from the South, the temps were something we deal with every year, but you could tell the locals were miserable.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I think that's a wise choice. It was crazy hot when we were there in mid-July, in addition to the crowds. We visited since we had scheduled a Rhine River cruise during the warmer months, and then went to Switzerland and Italy afterwards. The temperatures kinda took away from the Venice visit, but I'm glad we went. Tons of history there.

Being from the South, the temps were something we deal with every year, but you could tell the locals were miserable.

i wonder what European crowds will end up looking like this fall? will they be elevated from normal or fall back into their old patterns?

 

[Smugpugmug]

I think that's a wise choice. It was crazy hot when we were there in mid-July, in addition to the crowds. We visited since we had scheduled a Rhine River cruise during the warmer months, and then went to Switzerland and Italy afterwards. The temperatures kinda took away from the Venice visit, but I'm glad we went. Tons of history there.

Being from the South, the temps were something we deal with every year, but you could tell the locals were miserable.

European cities in the fall and winter are beautiful and are way more tolerable weather wise. Germany in particular is stunning in the autumn with the foliage. Just avoid Oktoberfest and you're good. Czech Republic is also beautiful in the fall though Prague can still be busy. Not shoulder to shoulder crowds though.

 

[wabbott]

i wonder what European crowds will end up looking like this fall? will they be elevated from normal or fall back into their old patterns?

https://www.reuters.com/business/ri...-not-appear-be-curbing-wanderlust-2023-08-09/

Rising prices for travel yet to curb wanderlust
By Joanna Plucinska, Rajesh Kumar Singh, Doyinsola Oladipo and Priyamvada C
August 9, 20239:32 AM CDT

LONDON/CHICAGO/NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The post-pandemic travel boom and the high ticket prices that come with it show no signs of slowing well into next year, despite economic uncertainty and dwindling household savings.

While questions linger about how much longer consumers will continue to indulge, airlines, hotels and analysts say travel has remained a top priority instead of the "nice to have" purchase as in years past.

International travel reached around 90% of pre-pandemic levels this year, according to the International Air Transport Association. The rebound was led by visitors to Southern Europe from cooler climates despite soaring temperatures and included swaths of American tourists flying overseas.

TUI (TUI1n.DE), one of the world's biggest holiday firms, on Wednesday reported its first post-pandemic net profit on the back of robust bookings and travel demand in the three months to the end of June.

"In the wake of the pandemic, a number of folks have reset their priorities and have focused on splurging on travel," said Dan McKone, a senior partner at strategy consultancy L.E.K. Consulting.

That desire may even strengthen next year, according to travel tech firm Amadeus, whose recent survey showed that 47% of respondents said international travel was a high-priority discretionary spending category for 2023 and 2024, compared with 42% who ranked it as such the previous year. Amadeus sampled travelers from Britain, France, the United States, Germany and Singapore.

Those trends lifted quarterly earnings of travel companies, with cruise operators like Royal Caribbean (RCL.N) reporting record results in recent weeks. Travel operators Booking Holdings (BKNG.O) and Airbnb (ABNB.O) said revenue was up 27% and 18%, respectively, and air carrier Delta (DAL.N) and hotel giant Marriott International (MAR.O) forecast strong future demand.

German carrier Lufthansa LHAG.DE said bookings for the rest of the year currently exceed 90% of the pre-pandemic level and the summer season extending into October. United Airlines (UAL.O) is expanding Pacific coverage this autumn with new flights to Manila, Hong Kong, Taipei and Tokyo.

Overall, global passenger demand is estimated to grow 22% year-on-year in 2023 and 6% in 2024, Moody's investor service said on Tuesday. Ticket prices, which in some cases have increased by double-digit percentages since the pandemic, are unlikely to plummet.

"Everyone is pricing against demand and this is the basic economic equation," Jozsef Varadi, CEO of budget carrier Wizz Air (WIZZ.L), told Reuters. "We are in a high-input cost environment. So, that puts pressure on pricing."

Travelers to Europe and Asia are not expected to see substantial price relief this autumn, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at online travel agency Hopper.

She expects air fares on long-haul international routes to remain high until supply outpaces pre-pandemic levels, demand normalizes and jet fuel prices decline further.

The weak spot is U.S. domestic travel, as the end of COVID-19 testing restrictions has unleashed pent-up demand by Americans to take vacations overseas.

"They said earlier in the year, 'Look, I'm going to do that international trip that we've been meaning to do,' and that's created a lot of crowded places with Americans in Europe," Booking Holdings (BKNG.O) CEO Glenn Fogel told Reuters.

International inbound travel to the United States in May rose 26% year over year to 5.37 million visitors but is still about 20% lower than pre-pandemic visitor volumes reported in May 2019, according to the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office.

International inbound vs outbound in the U.S this year
Average domestic airfare is currently $246 round-trip, down 8% from 2022, according to travel booking app Hopper.

Executives said U.S. hotel rooms may become more expensive due to lack of supply, but softening demand may moderate that effect.

"Growth is expected to remain higher internationally than in the U.S. and Canada, where we're seeing a return to more normal seasonal patterns," said Marriott CFO Kathleen Oberg.

Looking ahead, some airline groups like British Airways owner IAG (ICAG.L) said it is unclear whether demand can be sustained. Analysts have said dwindling consumer savings could cause a downturn in spending if inflation fails to let up.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Ok here we are, mid/late august. Do we think we can draw any inferences from MNSSHP party still only having October 31st sold out, and openings in September still?

 

[Upatnoon]

Looks like they priced it too low. As hot as it has been in August, you'd think there would be less crowds.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Looks like they priced it too low. As hot as it has been in August, you'd think there would be less crowds.

View attachment 787060View attachment 787050

Comparative to where they sold out last year, they are actually running pretty far behind. I think most dates will sell out, it’s just a question of when.

Just my take, but the busier Disney is the faster the dates would sell out