Crowd level calendar increase

[ttbell]

The numbers went up for April in some areas. We are there from the 19th-27th, and some of the hours changed. However, other factors still seem to indicate that during that period it won't be as bad as the week preceeding it.

I don't have all the answers!!! I am simply reporting why they said they recomputed the numbers, and why so late. I DON'T KNOW why May is expected to be crowded.

Someone had questioned earlier why don't we contact touringplans.com and you had said that you had already answered that question. But I am still questioning their answer, which you posted, because it doesn't reconcile the 2nd week in May.

I don't think people are expecting you to have all of the answers. It sounds as if people are just questioning why...and it's possible someone else might know.

 

[ttbell]

I will be there the same time as you. I also noticed that our hours haven't changed, nor have they added any shows/fireworks/parades, etc. And, like I said before, there is resort availablility EVERYWHERE. I even checked by trying to book the 4/3 deal online, just to see. The only place not available for that deal for my dates was Pop, and when I dropped a day, it became available. So I'm not freaking out at all.

I just can't see that particular week getting as crowded as a Spring Break week, or Easter, or after school lets out the end of May.

I grew up near Disneyland, so that's my only perspective of crowds at Disney....so I'm used to crowded. I'll expect that and if it's lower, it will be a pleasant surprise!!

 

[jfelcie]

We will be there Apr. 18th. - 26th. That is our spring break in CT. My daughter has gone the week after Easter before and said that she remembers having late hours and more parade and spectromagic times that week. Two weeks ago I was able to book a one bedroom at BCV so that I could join my daughter and her family. No problem getting a reservation. I am hoping that they are over compensating!!!

 

[oasispaul]

Don't forget, several people have posted that UG's (Touringplan's) crowd estimator formula also takes into account the wait times at the MK's "Big Three" (Space Mountain, Splash Mountain & Big Thunder Mountain).

Space Mountain is scheduled to close for it's rehab on April 19, I believe. Once it's closed, I imagine we'll see a related increase in the wait times for Splash Mountain and Big Thunder Mountain - as the people who would normally be riding/waiting in line for Space Mountain will be dispersed throughout the MK and many would be riding/waiting in line for the 2 other mountains.

Of course, that only takes MK into account, but still, if it's part of their crowd estimator formula, it makes sense.

So it sounds like it's a combination of Disney underestimating the success of the 4/3 deal and adding shows/increasing park times at the last-minute. As a result, the UG (Touringplans) sees that what they predicted to be 6's and 7's were actually 8's, 9's and 10's. And they update the rest of their numbers accordingly.

I am also under the belief that May won't be nearly as bad as the new numbers indicate. I'm confident the combination of Spring Break and the success of the 4/3 deal is what has been driving the crazy crowds the past few weeks. Spring Break is the multiplication factor in that formula. Once you remove it (i.e. late April/May), the effects shouldn't be as staggering.

However, I do believe the low May numbers we were originally going off of probably were too low and needed to be updated. I agree with some of the previous posters who said the UG might now be overestimating these crowds a bit to try to "cover their butts" (even though, as someone mentioned, they can't predict WDW crowds correctly when Disney can't predict them correctly themselves, so it's really no fault of their own).

Bottom line, I'm expecting 6's, 7's and 8's during most of May. Maybe an occasional 9 on the weekend. Granted, I'm not a professional and the forumula I'm using is "historical information + gut reaction".

 

[rapriebe]

The numbers went up for April in some areas. We are there from the 19th-27th, and some of the hours changed. However, other factors still seem to indicate that during that period it won't be as bad as the week preceeding it.

I don't have all the answers!!! I am simply reporting why they said they recomputed the numbers, and why so late. I DON'T KNOW why May is expected to be crowded.

I DIDN'T EXPECT you to have all of the answers. My post was going out to anyone for their opinion.

Someone had questioned earlier why don't we contact touringplans.com and you had said that you had already answered that question. But I am still questioning their answer, which you posted, because it doesn't reconcile the 2nd week in May.

I don't think people are expecting you to have all of the answers. It sounds as if people are just questioning why...and it's possible someone else might know.

Exactly.

 

[Luvamouse]

Agree. While this does stink for those of us who are going down then (me included!)--what was touringplans.com supposed to do? They had their information based on Disney's original hours and parade schedules. They even stated that if they knew about the hours and additional parades they would have been spot on predicting 9's these past weeks. Even Disney didn't even know that it would be this crowded apparently! So, while these crowds will be bigger than we all thought I suppose we "can't shoot the messenger" in this case.

I agree! It's not like it is Diwsney or UG's fault that the crowds are bigger. Blame tall the people who are going to WDW! Originally, our dates of April 11-17th were 9's, then they dropped to 7's -- maybe a couple of months ago? . If I had never looked at the UG crowd calendar since I had originally booked the trip, I wouldn't be unhappy that the crowd predictions went up! That being said, I would much rather go expecting HUGE crowds and either 1) Find just that or 2) Find it LESS crowded than I expected than I would be to go expecting it to be not so bad and having it mobbed! Hope for the best, expect the worst!

If I never saw the UG, I would have simply assumed Easter= Mob Scene. Done deal, be early, tour wisely, rest in the afternoon. Gee, sounds just like what we'll be doing

 

[familyatdisney]

A while back there was someone who had written to the creator of the crow calculator and asked for an explanation as to why one day the first week of May was a 9 and the next was a 4. (Obviously before the numbers changed.) This person received a reply and posted it on a different thread. Has anyone tried to contact the creator again and ask what is behind the huge number increase?
I am very upset about this because I read and re-read the number information before deciding on a week late last year. My whole purpose was to avoid terrible crowds. I wish now that we had went with our other choice which was early November.

I know it is Disney & we will have a good time, but when you have to save for three years to make one trip, you want your money's worth....not to be standing in line and only seeing half of what you could when the crowds are manageable.

Yes, I emailed him again and here is his response. I had the edit both emails to remove crowd numbers:

My email to Fred:
What happened? Go to check the crowd calendar hoping to see May 7th dropped and everyday went up in the month of May? What is the reasoning: 4/3 deal, Space Mountain being down, both or is this just a cruel joke, which would actually be pretty funny. How is the week of April 19th lower crowds when there is very limited Disney resorts available (I checked) but multiple resorts available the week of May 2nd? Sorry to be a pain but like everyone else, I booked this week in May hoping for managable crowds. Thanks,

Fred's Response:

Hi, thanks for using the site and the Unofficial Guide. Crowds are rising bigtime this Spring. Disney was planning for low crowds and now they are panicking by extending park hours and adding fireworks and parade performances. Our new estimates are a reflection of all the new information that we are collecting, including the factors you mentioned like the Disney promotions and the closing of Space Mountain. Surprisingly, Disney resort occupancy numbers aren't a great indicator of crowd size. Off-site occupancy, local attendance and weather all have major affects as well.
Fred Hazelton, Statistician, Unofficial Guides


I still think and hope they are overestimating early May but I will go with a plan and hope for the best. Arrive early, use fastpass and take breaks if too crowded.

 

[NeverBeen2DW]

We went last year around the April 17th date and it was spring break for some parts of the east coast. It was not to bad. I would not stress to much. We had a great time. Compared to going in late march or early April like we are doing now it was much more relaxed. If you look at my siggy went 3/19 in 2007 and that was much more crowded then when we went on 4/17/2008/ April was much less crowded. Now this year we are going April 1st so I am keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[doconeill]

I DIDN'T EXPECT you to have all of the answers. My post was going out to anyone for their opinion.

Sorry...I was being bombarded with questions in a number of threads...

 

[kennezgirl]

Yes, I emailed him again and here is his response. I had the edit both emails to remove crowd numbers:

My email to Fred:
What happened? Go to check the crowd calendar hoping to see May 7th dropped and everyday went up in the month of May? What is the reasoning: 4/3 deal, Space Mountain being down, both or is this just a cruel joke, which would actually be pretty funny. How is the week of April 19th lower crowds when there is very limited Disney resorts available (I checked) but multiple resorts available the week of May 2nd? Sorry to be a pain but like everyone else, I booked this week in May hoping for managable crowds. Thanks,

Fred's Response:

Hi, thanks for using the site and the Unofficial Guide. Crowds are rising bigtime this Spring. Disney was planning for low crowds and now they are panicking by extending park hours and adding fireworks and parade performances. Our new estimates are a reflection of all the new information that we are collecting, including the factors you mentioned like the Disney promotions and the closing of Space Mountain. Surprisingly, Disney resort occupancy numbers aren't a great indicator of crowd size. Off-site occupancy, local attendance and weather all have major affects as well.
Fred Hazelton, Statistician, Unofficial Guides


I still think and hope they are overestimating early May but I will go with a plan and hope for the best. Arrive early, use fastpass and take breaks if too crowded.

THANK YOU very much for re-posting this. I missed it the first time and that was all I was wanting to know. Have a wonderful day!

 

[pwdebbie]

When we went in 2007, the bathrooms were empty, literally. How will the bathrooms be with a "7" or "8" crowd level?

 

[The Iron Giant]

We're going April 27 - May 4 and I agree... the numbers are really weird.

Its all 8's,9's, and 10's for April until the last week which drops to some 5's and then right back up to the 4th of July crowd levels.

I'm waiting for that last week of April to catch up to the rest of the weeks.

 

[styron]

What's grad night again? Sorry for the newbie question.

 

[ShuisFan584]

This news really upsets me. We were looking forward to it being pretty slow this trip because we figured no one would be going on vacation because of the recession.

We went three years ago the end of May to June. While it was obviously more crowded than January (our favorite time to go) it was still manageable and not bad at all. I'm so upset knowing that end of May to beginning of June is supposed to be all 8's and 9's! I've never been during super busy times (Easter, Christmas, middle of summer, etc) because I wouldn't have the patience for the crowds. And now I'm scared knowing that it will be just like going in July!

 

[dbprimeaux]

well...if this means anything.... I just made a reservation for DD at BBB at MK on the exact day and time I was wanting!!! YEA!!! June 1st at 8AM!!!!

 

[styron]

pwdebbie - Thank you SO much for this information. So grad night is only for a specific park? That would be a relief.

>>There is something going on 4/24-27 called Cheerleading Worlds. The application form shows them being roomed at the All Stars and CBR. They have DHS on Sunday night (and Friday and Saturday nights are Grad Nights for DHS). I'm sure this event has played into the increased crowd levels.

 

[delmar411]

This news really upsets me. We were looking forward to it being pretty slow this trip because we figured no one would be going on vacation because of the recession.

We went three years ago the end of May to June. While it was obviously more crowded than January (our favorite time to go) it was still manageable and not bad at all. I'm so upset knowing that end of May to beginning of June is supposed to be all 8's and 9's! I've never been during super busy times (Easter, Christmas, middle of summer, etc) because I wouldn't have the patience for the crowds. And now I'm scared knowing that it will be just like going in July!

Well part of the problem in your timeframe is that they moved Star Wars Weekend to start in May. So you're getting hit by those crowds as well.

 

[Wunderkind]

Done deal, be early, tour wisely, rest in the afternoon. Gee, sounds just like what we'll be doing

^^^I keep reading this same advise everywhere. If everyone follows this advise, then it stands to reason that the afternoons will be less crowded as everyone will be hitting the parks early, resting in the afternoons, then going back to the parks later in the day. Oops did I just throw a monkey wrench in the mix?

 

[ShuisFan584]

Well part of the problem in your timeframe is that they moved Star Wars Weekend to start in May. So you're getting hit by those crowds as well.

I thought Star Wars weekends were always in May? I know that was going on when we went 3 years ago in May.

 

[Colleen27]

^^^I keep reading this same advise everywhere. If everyone follows this advise, then it stands to reason that the afternoons will be less crowded as everyone will be hitting the parks early, resting in the afternoons, then going back to the parks later in the day. Oops did I just throw a monkey wrench in the mix?

Most Disney visitors will never visit the DIS or other planning sites, and thus won't even read that advice. And some who do read that advice just won't do it. We fall into that category. We know the most efficient approach to touring is to be there for rope drop every morning, but getting up that early just isn't a vacation for us so we generally don't do things that way.