crowd calendar

[friendoffigment]

Does anyone still trust crowd calendars. If so which one do you consider the most reliable.

 

[scrappinginontario]

I use Touring Plans. Have for years and still find them well worth the small cost for all they offer.

 

[stinkpickle]

They can be close, but actual crowd levels and "feels like" crowd levels can vary widely.

 

[juxtapose]

I feel like they're all pretty good at large crowd weeks (Christmas/New Years, spring break, etc) but they all aren't that great at finding the crowds during non-major holidays and just seem to guess. I think with Disney's pricing, and crowd calendars, the crowds are more evening spread out throughout the year. Touringplans is probably the best, but I think most crowd calendars underestimated January crowds this year so we'll see how the rest of the year goes.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

For me, it's not a matter of trusting or not trusting crowd calendars. I have a tough time understanding the difference between a 4/10 versus a 7/10 on the crowd level meter. I don't attend the parks frequently enough to say to myself, "Thank goodness today is a 4/10 versus a 7/10." The WDW parks just feel crowded whenever I attend.

 

[mackaylc]

I also still subscribe to Touring Plans, and enjoy looking at previous years data comparing what they predicted to what they actually saw. I also go to the free calendars wdw prep and disney tourist blog and compare. I am a bit of a data nerd though! In general they has been pretty accurate for what I have used them for.

 

[ucf_knight]

Does anyone still trust crowd calendars. If so which one do you consider the most reliable.

Its always busy. I'll never understand why people look at crowd calendars, you'll only end up disappointed when the calendar says 4/10 and end up waiting 95 min. for an attraction. Just go when its best for your schedule.

 

[PaladinButters]

Its always busy. I'll never understand why people look at crowd calendars, you'll only end up disappointed when the calendar says 4/10 and end up waiting 95 min. for an attraction. Just go when its best for your schedule.

The best they can do for you is highlight holidays and events to avoid (Run Disney weekends, Soooo many cheerleaders). Any one of us can tell you August / September is the slower season and Christmas week is nuts. No need for a calendar for that stuff.

 

[gottalovepluto]

I like the narrative month by month a disney tourist blog does. For instance here is april 2024.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I like the crowd calendars, but often find them not to be particularly accurate, but it gave me something to plan around when making park reservations. Now I suppose you can just hop straight away if a park is busier than you through it would be!

 

[_19disnA]

I think they are useless and you may as well just pick a number out of a hat. No 3rd party can predict how busy a park will be 4 months in advance. Even Disney has no idea how many locals with AP's will just show up some day when the weather is good. I doubt Disney shares future reservations info with 3rd parties and clearly many guests stay at non-Disney hotels.

I think that one site has some mumbo jumbo that indicates crowd figures aren't the same as how many people are there or something like that. Peak times at the parks are historically around major holidays, so there is really no magic to 'predict' that.

I would never pay for any 3rd party just to see their 'forecast' of the future for either parks or rides.

 

[Upatnoon]

Does anyone still trust crowd calendars. If so which one do you consider the most reliable.

Disney offers a crowd calendar as they charge more for tickets on more popular days. They also block out more periods from most annual passes.

In the end, how you tour the parks is much more important than when your visit is.

Having a strategy for your visit makes the difference between "getting a lot done" vs. just winging it or looking at a number on a chart.

 

[Chili327]

I like the crowd calendars, but often find them not to be particularly accurate, but it gave me something to plan around when making park reservations. Now I suppose you can just hop straight away if a park is busier than you through it would be!

Disney offers a crowd calendar as they charge more for tickets on more popular days. They also block out more periods from most annual passes.

In the end, how you tour the parks is much more important than when your visit is.

Having a strategy for your visit makes the difference between "getting a lot done" vs. just winging it or looking at a number on a chart.

Yep, I’m finding 2 very different predictions, so I’ll just have to plan accordingly… err I mean wing it. lol
Touring Plans says one thing and Underc0ver Tourist says another.

Also, I see the marathon is Jan 8-12, but does anyone know if that would have much effect on a Wednesday (8th?)

 

[lentesta]

Yep, I’m finding 2 very different predictions, so I’ll just have to plan accordingly… err I mean wing it. lol
Touring Plans says one thing and Underc0ver Tourist says another.

Also, I see the marathon is Jan 8-12, but does anyone know if that would have much effect on a Wednesday (8th?)

The 2024 Marathon Weekend was January 3 - 7, so a week before 2025's, and coming off New Year's Day, which may have influenced crowds.

TouringPlans' crowd level for Wednesday, January 3 was 9 out of 10 (predicted 8). The MK and DHS were 10/10.

Thursday 1/4 was 9 (predicted 8)
Friday 1/5 was 9 (predicted 8)
Saturday 1/6 was 4 (predicted 6) with thunderstorms that cut the Half Marathon short
Sunday 1/7 was 4 (predicted 5)

TP's crowd levels are based on Disney's posted wait times at key rides. Posted wait times are often wrong.

 

[Tom_E_D]

The 2024 Marathon Weekend was January 3 - 7, so a week before 2025's, and coming off New Year's Day, which may have influenced crowds.

TouringPlans' crowd level for Wednesday, January 3 was 9 out of 10 (predicted 8). The MK and DHS were 10/10.

Thursday 1/4 was 9 (predicted 8)
Friday 1/5 was 9 (predicted 8)
Saturday 1/6 was 4 (predicted 6) with thunderstorms that cut the Half Marathon short
Sunday 1/7 was 4 (predicted 5)

TP's crowd levels are based on Disney's posted wait times at key rides. Posted wait times are often wrong.

And in 2024, the Orlando public schools were still on Winter Break until January 9 (after Marathon weekend). That certainly affected 2024 early January crowds. In 2025, they will have resumed school on January 7 (before the Marathon).

 

[SquashBanana]

I don't put too much stock in crowd calendars, but I do like Thrill Data's crowd calendar. Also, I look at things such as LL availability and ADR availability. Rating a predicted crowd a certain number out of 10 has never really been beneficial for me.

 

[Keladry84]

Does anyone still trust crowd calendars. If so which one do you consider the most reliable.

Personally I feel like crowd calendars to predict crowds isn't all that useful anymore - most people have internet access and if the majority of people look at them to plan their trips.....poof, low crowd day is suddenly busy, high crowd day surprisingly empty - which anecdotally does seem to be happening more and more. The last several years seem to be bucking historic trends for low vs. peak crowds and I think a lot of it has to do with more and more people trying to 'beat' them - but when everyone is doing it, it no longer works. You really need to zig when others zag, and the best way to do that is to plan your own thing, not the 'listed/advertised' thing.

For me, I'm limited in when I can vacation, so I choose the dates I want to go regardless of possible predictions. Then plan my day as if there will be high/dense crowds, which lately seems to be more often than not, and then can be pleasantly surprised if its not. And if it is high crowds, I'm not disappointed because I was expecting it and planned accordingly. The secret to a good trip is to have realistic expectations going in, and anything over that is bonus/sugar on top.

 

[Chili327]

Thanks all, I agree predictions can only be so accurate, and lower numbers can create busy days.
My dates are set, and my park days are planned, but could change if something tells me so.