Cost of resale if they build new villas?

[vbalacek]

Lately there has been a lot of speculation on a new contemporary or animal kingdom villa-- both of which seem to generate a lot of interest, at least on these boards. One poster mentioned they expected an announcement next month (again not sure if its true, but fun to think about).

If the rumors are true, and if either a CV or AKV is announced in the next month, how would you expect the resale market to react? Do you think prices of current DVCs would decrease (maybe because there would be so much demand for new villas, demand would drop for old villas), increase (maybe because prices have been increasing for the past years notwithstanding new growth), or remain about the same?

 

[Master Mason]

With the ROFR, Disney is able to keep the prices higher...

 

[JimMIA]

As Master Mason says, Disney artificially keeps resale prices at a level which will not detract from their "new" sales.

I don't know about the impact of a new resort, because I haven't been here long enough to see a new resort introduced. I have seen a number of promotions and price increases at SSR...the resort they are currently selling.

The effect of those price increases on resales has been an initial stabilization of prices as existing deals work their way through the ROFR process, and then a gradual tightening to raise the resale prices overall.

Because Beca/vascubaguy's ROFR thread is such a long-running thread, you can go back several years and read the history. That thread is essential reading for anyone considering resale.

 

[shellbelle1971]

I wonder whether we may begin to see "tiers" in the levels at which DVD exercises ROFR. (To some extent it already exists, with resales at HHI, for instance, costing significantly less per point than resales at BCV.)

It would make sense to me that perhaps DVD would be quicker to exercise ROFR on the 2054 resorts than the 2042 resorts. This could be a way for Disney to "prop up" the market value of their current sales without costing them an arm and a leg.

OTOH, ROFR is already lower on the "condo-style" resorts (OKW, SSR) than on the "hotel" resorts (BCV, VWL). So I don't know.

I guess like in everything, the free market will win out. As long as there are people willing to buy X resort from DVD, they will exercise ROFR agressively so they can turn a profit on it. But if they're only exercising ROFR on X resort to artificially inflate the value at which they can sell Z resort...they may look for a way to stop doing it.

 

[CarolA]

I think you already see tiers.... Disney lets sales for HH and VB go for cheaper then BCV for example

Personally I am hoping this releases some of the BCV demand. The resale price there seems to be in the 90's before closing... just a little too rich.