Contracts drying up??

[CastAStone]

my theory has always been that if Disney has a hard enough time selling it's own hotel inventory, it's going to start to squeeze commercial renters (who are its only competition for on site hotels with perks).

There’s not enough like buttons for this comment.

 

[CastAStone]

I think a lot of the traffic slowdown at WDW is cyclical and related to the pandemic.

Everyone has their own patterns of domestic travel vs foreign travel, big trips vs small, and they’re typically cycled around so it might be my big domestic year but your easygoing trip to Cancun year and my neighbors year off.

In 2021 and 2022 it was EVERYONE’s big domestic year. We all didn’t want to deal with Covid passports and almost all of us had money from the government.


The ripples from that are still here and it’s just not people’s WDW cycle. I think in 2025 or 2026 we will see another wave; things will probably level out mostly after that barring another crisis.

 

[New Mouse]

What does WDW even have in the works for 2025, 2026, 2027 at this point to entice people to come back?

Test Track Refurb is the only thing that comes to mind.

When is the Animal Kingdom stuff slated for? Even the major attraction there is going to be a rehash of a ride that's been available since 1995.

At the speed they build, anything major would have needed to start already.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

What does WDW even have in the works for 2025, 2026, 2027 at this point to entice people to come back?

Test Track Refurb is the only thing that comes to mind.

When is the Animal Kingdom stuff slated for? Even the major attraction there is going to be a rehash of a ride that's been available since 1995.

At the speed they build, anything major would have needed to start already.

2025- Starlight Parade, end of year Test Track?
2026- Maybe we start to get Tropical Americas by EOY?
Not sure when the new lands announced for MK and DHS are supposed to arrive.

We'll have visited 2-4x a year in 2022, 2023, and 2024, we are planning on banking or renting 80-90% of our 2025 WDW points, depending on how many MM visits we can make work, and those will be shorter trips (really only need 2 days to do our favorites and hopefully enjoy the new night parade). Our family loves Cosmic Rewind, but once it goes off VQ, it's going to be hard to do it more than once a day, maybe twice if we time it right...we'll stick with DLR and save our vacation days for international travel.

 

[VGCgroupie]

2025- Starlight Parade, end of year Test Track?
2026- Maybe we start to get Tropical Americas by EOY?
Not sure when the new lands announced for MK and DHS are supposed to arrive.

We'll have visited 2-4x a year in 2022, 2023, and 2024, we are planning on banking or renting 80-90% of our 2025 WDW points, depending on how many MM visits we can make work, and those will be shorter trips (really only need 2 days to do our favorites and hopefully enjoy the new night parade). Our family loves Cosmic Rewind, but once it goes off VQ, it's going to be hard to do it more than once a day, maybe twice if we time it right...we'll stick with DLR and save our vacation days for international travel.

Maybe a good time to start cruise swapping..

I joined this DVC Interval International FB group and there are some crazy good deals even though everyone says interval is a bad use of points. I didnt dive into it much since Im still a noob to DVC it was very confusing to me at a glance and Ive done spent almost all my points I have so far.

 

[juliebee]

Does a resale broker have to disclose if they are the owner of the contract? I believe in housing real estate that it's standard to disclose that right on the listing in my state at least.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Maybe a good time to start cruise swapping..

I joined this DVC Interval International FB group and there are some crazy good deals even though everyone says interval is a bad use of points. I didnt dive into it much since Im still a noob to DVC it was very confusing to me at a glance and Ive done spent almost all my points I have so far.

I can’t believe that the Interval exchange would be worth anywhere near the $18-20/pt you can get from renting the in demand resorts but I would be very interested to be proven wrong.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Does a resale broker have to disclose if they are the owner of the contract? I believe in housing real estate that it's standard to disclose that right on the listing in my state at least.

This is a great question.

 

[TinkAgainU]

Thanks!

I could see it being attractive to some to buy at an agreed price now, but then have a couple months before they have to write the final check!

Keep in mind, if prices drop significantly, and You decide to cancel during that long wait, you lose your deposit. If prices go up, the Seller can refuse to sign the final paperwork and tell you "so sue me." I don't think it would be that easy to enforce against the Seller - but for you, your deposit money is already in escrow tied up under the contract terms. P.S. Deposits are negotiable.

 

[BrianLo]

It would become disclosed when sending off to ROFR as their names would be on it.

Don’t people here basically scrape all the posted deeds? Wouldn’t we know the frequency of DVCRM buying/selling?

 

[ocdb8r1]

Maybe a good time to start cruise swapping..

I joined this DVC Interval International FB group and there are some crazy good deals even though everyone says interval is a bad use of points. I didnt dive into it much since Im still a noob to DVC it was very confusing to me at a glance and Ive done spent almost all my points I have so far.

Be careful and II is showing you the discount you get off what is effectively the rack rate for any cruise. Savvy travelers know that cruise travel agents often have access to much better rates and often rebate a portion of their commission (sometimes as high as 10% of the cruise fare) to clients. I have never seen a cruise deal on II that made sense even valuing my DVC points at $10/point.

I can’t believe that the Interval exchange would be worth anywhere near the $18-20/pt you can get from renting the in demand resorts but I would be very interested to be proven wrong.

Agreed.

 

[ocdb8r1]

Only if they execute it at the same time. For example, one time is "the market appears to be softening"


...and maybe this is one such example. After all, if this is true:


(I have no reason to believe it or disbelieve it) then D*C rentals should also be seeing a slowdown in traffic. I have heard similar things from some of the larger (not-necessarily-D*C) renters on TUG. A large-scale renter would see that slowdown faster than someone who rents onesies-twosies.

-----
Edited to add: I moved to using D*C because I'm annoyed at the DISboards Advertisinator.)

It's only a small sample, but I keep a regular eye on the "Open Listings" that dvcrentalstore.com posts for owners to "claim" requested reservations they have not been able to fill. That list is actually (presently) the longest I have seen it this year. That said there are a LOT of listings for requests within the next 7-months (which they only pay $14/point for).

Does a resale broker have to disclose if they are the owner of the contract? I believe in housing real estate that it's standard to disclose that right on the listing in my state at least.

I would have thought so....but to think of it, has there ever been a thread where someone has indicated one of the Broker's is their counterparty? I would have thought this is something we'd have seen discussed given the "Instant Purchase" offer dvcresalemarket.com offers. Certainly they must have had some of the massive number of posters on this board as counterparties?

It would become disclosed when sending off to ROFR as their names would be on it.

Don’t people here basically scrape all the posted deeds? Wouldn’t we know the frequency of DVCRM buying/selling?

I guess this assumes they are using an entity we are familiar with. I guess they could be titling anything they own in a completely different entity name. I perhaps a follow-on to the above question is whether an "affiliate" of a resale broker is under any obligation to disclose such affiliation.

One other thought to ponder as I type this out. If any of the brokers out there do run a big operation of renting out their own points, certainly they MUST be keeping those contracts in multiple entities. We all know DVC dings anyone with over 20 reservations in a 12 month period....so I would assume any large rental operation (if it does exist) would need multiple entities holding the contracts to avoid running afoul of that restriction.

 

[Mikey15]

When is the Animal Kingdom stuff slated for? Even the major attraction there is going to be a rehash of a ride that's been available since 1995.

At the speed they build, anything major would have needed to start already.

Indy’s a retheme but I think the Encanto attraction is the main new addition in Tropical Americas? Either way yeah, that’s 2-3 years away. That area will be a great place for a proper Up! attraction eventually too.

Work at MK / Frontierland seems to be getting ready to move though. BTMRR is going down for all of 2025 as they work on the Rivers of America area. Definitely not a great time to reduce your rides at your flagship park, but short term pain…

 

[WinterSolider]

It may be a slowdown in travel to WDW, or Orlando, or even generally.

We've been seeing TV ads for DCL lately, which I don't recall ever seeing before.

 

[WinterSolider]

Does a resale broker have to disclose if they are the owner of the contract? I believe in housing real estate that it's standard to disclose that right on the listing in my state at least.

I don't know if they have to, but some of them definitely do. I've seen in the notes "owner-broker" or something along those lines.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Be careful and II is showing you the discount you get off what is effectively the rack rate for any cruise. Savvy travelers know that cruise travel agents often have access to much better rates and often rebate a portion of their commission (sometimes as high as 10% of the cruise fare) to clients. I have never seen a cruise deal on II that made sense even valuing my DVC points at $10/point.


Agreed.

Sorry I wasnt talking about II for cruising. But for international travel.

Cruise swapping is with Davids or the Board Sponser.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I don't know if they have to, but some of them definitely do. I've seen in the notes "owner-broker" or something along those lines.

ahh yes I have seen that notated on some listings.

 

[RoseGold]

Does a resale broker have to disclose if they are the owner of the contract? I believe in housing real estate that it's standard to disclose that right on the listing in my state at least.

I rented from a real estate company that clearly owned a whole lot. It was one of many, many related LLCs. Even if the broker does "own" it, it's likely in a complicated structure of many other companies.

This is also why it doesn't really matter if Disney restricts how many points or rentals or whatever per "owner." They have a whole lot of "owners."

 

[BrianLo]

I guess this assumes they are using an entity we are familiar with. I guess they could be titling anything they own in a completely different entity name. I perhaps a follow-on to the above question is whether an "affiliate" of a resale broker is under any obligation to disclose such affiliation.

One other thought to ponder as I type this out. If any of the brokers out there do run a big operation of renting out their own points, certainly they MUST be keeping those contracts in multiple entities. We all know DVC dings anyone with over 20 reservations in a 12 month period....so I would assume any large rental operation (if it does exist) would need multiple entities holding the contracts to avoid running afoul of that restriction.

I posited the question and realize I probably bought my first contract from one of DVCRM’s holding companies and it wasn’t really disclosed to me. At least the transaction was smooth.

MMSM HOLDINGS LLC

 

[juliebee]

MMSM HOLDINGS LLC

That appears to be an Indiana company with a contact name of Timothy H. Button who appears to be an attorney specializing in contract drafting, asset purchases, commercial and residential real estate, land use matters, etc.

I recall that shows from DVCRM have mentioned being headquartered in Indiana.