Considering DVC purchase, 2nd opinions wanted

[OlieRow]

I've casually considered DVC and followed the threads here off and on for the past few years and think I'm finally to a spot where buying in makes sense. I guess I'm looking for input on what others would do. After thinking things over and over and over on my drive up 95 today, it's hard to look at things objectively...

I have an AP, live 6-7 hour drive away and have been going 4-6 times/yr for for the past 5-6 years. Trips are frequently for runDisney weekends and with a running buddy friend or 2-3 other girlfriends. I've got younger nieces/nephews and ideally could treat family every couple of years but otherwise would likely usually stay in studios. I like staying deluxe when the budget allows (aka when splitting costs with someone else + 25-30% discount) but my trips over the last 2-3 years have been at Coronado/Boardwalk (rental), Rivera (rental), Contemporary, Pop x 2, Swan, and an off site condo. Having a kitchen was great but I did kinda miss the bubble! Yea... I'm gonna stay in a 1BR and get hooked! Looking at my 2022 and ideal 2023 travel, I'd need 410-420 points but would start with 150-200 and supplement DVC trips with moderate resorts or maybe Pop. I see why add-on-itits is real!

As far as a home resort, I'm primarily interested in either the monorail or Epcot resorts. IMO, the convenience of walking to the parks can't be beat. I also prefer somewhere that has an advantage of the 11mo booking window (aka standard view rooms at BLT or BWV vs Poly studios being available more frequently at 7mo) although I do realize that runDisney weekends are going to be tough at the 7mo mark and likely impossible for a studio. I like the points charts of BLT and BWV but having 2 beds in the VGF resort studios makes me want to consider VGF more than I had previously. Ideally, I'd have a studio (or 1BR) with 2 real sleeping surfaces (ie RR, SSR, VGF, PVB) but I guess BLT and BWV will get them eventually. My friends and I are kinda past sleeping on sofa beds. The 2042 contract at BWV isn't a huge drawback (I don't think?) given the points chart and that nieces and nephews will be grown by then and I'll likely be running less at 57. I love PVB but not sure I want to own with essentially only studios so I think there's a very good chance I add on there when the new tower opens.

Based on the incentives for VGF and likely not wanting to wait until 2024, I think buying in the next year makes sense. I was told on a very recent tour that to qualify for current owner incentives you had to own for a year. If it goes on sale in early/mid 2024, I'd probably want to own by early 2023.

-- What use year would you recommend for someone traveling in Jan/Feb/March and October/November usually runDisney weekends but occasionally over the summer with nieces/nephews? August/September/October? Is there one that is more common if I'm looking to add on down the line?

-- In terms of direct vs resale, is there really much of a benefit direct for a single person (aka just 1 AP worth of savings unless I can add nieces/nephews somehow)? I know about the Moonlight Magic/being able to stay at RR/DLT/etc but if I'm likely buying PVB2, I'd get blue card perks with that. Upcoming trips penciled in on the calendar are 5-7 days in early Sept and/or 3-4 days in early December, 6 nights for Marathon 2023, 3-4 nights for Princess 2023. Maybe (a very loose maybe) family trip over the summer before neice turns 3 and likely Wine & Dine 2023. Availability for Sept/Dec/Marathon/Princess (at least for the rooms we'd want) is questionable, even if I bought direct today. Does DVC have any ability to create availability for a "welcome home" trip? If not, I'm not sure there's any benefit to buying direct now vs the very end of May before current incentives expire.

In terms of finances, I got a very large tax return and will be getting some bonus pay in October that combined could very realistically cover the purchase costs. The only potential curveball is some family drama resulting in my providing some financial assistance for the past several months. I'm hopeful that things will be improving significantly by the mid/late summer. My budget for the year did include the family financial support but did not include the tax return/bonus. I don't love the idea of financing a luxury purchase and chipping away at potential savings. The guide I met with noted that with 50% down and the other 50% paid off in 1 year would be 5.45% although I'd ideally pay it off in October. I think I'd be comfortable with that but not financing much more/much longer term.

So current options I've been weighing...
A) Buy 150-200 points direct at VGF (now vs late May)
B) Buy 150-200 points resale at BLT/BWV (likely starting to look now, making some lower offers and seeing how it goes)
C) Hold until closer to the end of the year knowing direct prices will go up and the 11mo window for possible 2023 summer and/or Wine & Dine trips will be harder for a resale contract but gives more time to make sure family drama settles down and likely allows me to pay fully in cash.

 

[RoseGold]

Sounds like you don’t plan to own this forever, or at least want some options to sell in the near future. That leans heavily to resale IMO.

Just in math, I’d pick Poly or BLT resale as sleeparound points right now. BLT seems to tick all your boxes, plus BLT has a great chart compared to VGF/RIV/probably Poly2.

BW resale is more expensive, but you can balance that to some degree with value booking category, which is impossible to get without BW points. It still might be worth paying more for BW if you really like it. I think BW will hold value better than most think, because I think there will be demand for a 10 year contract, just like you are considering right now. Cheaper contract with less points needed might be able to eliminate financing. That’s a MAJOR cost.

I also think you might be a candidate for RIV resale. It’s not even half sold and there are plenty of buyers underwater. I would expect to see motivated RIV sellers in coming years, and if that chart works for you, you might be able to pick up RIV cheaply. Obvious major drawback of being stuck in RIV, like cogsworth, which is why RIV resale might be low demand.

The cool thing about resale is I don’t view it as so much risk and commitment. If your nieces decide they are allergic Florida in a few years, you sell.

A 100 point BW resale contract that you don’t have to finance might be a great dip in the waters and would cover some of your trips. Sure, not the absolute best value, but it sounds like you would really use the priority and those points go a long way at BW. As someone who goes as much as you do, I value math over UY. Sounds like eventually you need two UYs anyway.

Edit to add: I think you need to consider the real possibility that APs can’t be renewed, are ridiculously expensive, or are heavily blacked out. That would seriously cramp RunDisney multiple times a year. You need to think about that risk before putting five figures into this. Chapek was clear that they want better guests, which means more $$$.

 

[Wedgeout]

I’d establish a membership with resale. There is no minimum amount of points required for that. The Aug/Sept/or Oct UY, I’d focus my searching on. Do best to avoid financing. Knowing that resale can take a few months from start to finish, continue your current pattern of resort stays while having a savings plan established to buy into the upcoming Polynesian resort direct with member pricing. They will match your membership UY.

 

[Sandisw]

To clarify the whole own for a year. That is only to qualify for the better interest rate for financing. The member incentives for pricing f will apply sooner than that.

In terms of resort, I’d go with VGF or RIV based on what you said. RIV gives you better access to SV rooms as an owner which helps with the point charts there. Easy access to Epcot to via Skyliner

But, VGF is also a great choice given it’s price direct and having the new resort studios seem to be just what you would want to be able to book. Close to a park too!

MFs are less at VGF and if you want to trade out at 7 months, I think that helps with them being points to use elsewhere but gives you a home resort at a popular resort.

Going direct also allows you to qualify for whatever membership benefits are offered. Since you have an AP, you’d be able to renew it as the Sorcerer pass.. Your points bought direct would also be good at all resorts including future ones.

With the new announcement of Poly tower, but no decision on whether it will be restricted from resale points bought now, it’s something to think about if you would want to stay there.

Good luck!

 

[UofMGuy423]

Regarding your question about DVC having availability to create a "welcome home" trip, that would require buying Direct from Disney. Purchasing resale would not get you a Welcome Home trip. From recent experience, I was able to get my Welcome Home trip at Riviera just 60-days ahead of my dates during this past Run Disney weekend. The Member site had it completely booked, but DVC pulled a room out for us.

For us, we bought Direct as I wanted unrestricted points and have no interest in selling or paying attention to the resale market. I rented for nearly 15-years and was back and forth about direct vs the resale market.

Also, you get all the points the same day you pay your deposit regardless of how far out your closing date is, which is a nice perk.

Good luck!

 

[OlieRow]

Thanks for the feedback. I guess it's comforting to see different opinions meaning there isn't one right way of going about purchasing.

Sounds like you don’t plan to own this forever, or at least want some options to sell in the near future. That leans heavily to resale IMO.

Just in math, I’d pick Poly or BLT resale as sleeparound points right now. BLT seems to tick all your boxes, plus BLT has a great chart compared to VGF/RIV/probably Poly2.

BW resale is more expensive, but you can balance that to some degree with value booking category, which is impossible to get without BW points. It still might be worth paying more for BW if you really like it. I think BW will hold value better than most think, because I think there will be demand for a 10 year contract, just like you are considering right now. Cheaper contract with less points needed might be able to eliminate financing. That’s a MAJOR cost.

I also think you might be a candidate for RIV resale. It’s not even half sold and there are plenty of buyers underwater. I would expect to see motivated RIV sellers in coming years, and if that chart works for you, you might be able to pick up RIV cheaply. Obvious major drawback of being stuck in RIV, like cogsworth, which is why RIV resale might be low demand.

Not sure that I'd plan to sell but for VGF/BLT/Poly1 or 2, I'd be in my 70s by the time they expired, that's a lot of life ahead of me so there's a decent chance I'd sell before they expired. In 2042, the kiddos in my life will be grown so probably need for fewer points by that point. The resale restrictions at RR aren't my favorite and probably have kept me from really considering it although I have rented there and it was beautiful.

BLT does check all the boxes but BWV has such a great points chart. Deciding between the two would be tough and could very well depend on which resale contract seemed to fit the best.

A 100 point BW resale contract that you don’t have to finance might be a great dip in the waters and would cover some of your trips. Sure, not the absolute best value, but it sounds like you would really use the priority and those points go a long way at BW. As someone who goes as much as you do, I value math over UY. Sounds like eventually you need two UYs anyway.

Edit to add: I think you need to consider the real possibility that APs can’t be renewed, are ridiculously expensive, or are heavily blacked out. That would seriously cramp RunDisney multiple times a year. You need to think about that risk before putting five figures into this. Chapek was clear that they want better guests, which means more $$$.

Could you explain why you think I'd eventually need 2 UYs? The UY is the one place I feel a bit weak in my DVC knowledge.

To clarify the whole own for a year. That is only to qualify for the better interest rate for financing. The member incentives for pricing f will apply sooner than that.

Thanks for the clarification on this and sorry for any confusion for people following!

In terms of resort, I’d go with VGF or RIV based on what you said. RIV gives you better access to SV rooms as an owner which helps with the point charts there. Easy access to Epcot to via Skyliner

But, VGF is also a great choice given it’s price direct and having the new resort studios seem to be just what you would want to be able to book. Close to a park too!

MFs are less at VGF and if you want to trade out at 7 months, I think that helps with them being points to use elsewhere but gives you a home resort at a popular resort.

Going direct also allows you to qualify for whatever membership benefits are offered. Since you have an AP, you’d be able to renew it as the Sorcerer pass.. Your points bought direct would also be good at all resorts including future ones.

With the new announcement of Poly tower, but no decision on whether it will be restricted from resale points bought now, it’s something to think about if you would want to stay there.

Good luck!

Do we think that the current new-buyer incentives at VGF are still really great? It's hard to know what they were initially for add-on contracts and not be a tad disappointed. Just like knowing people got BLT for $125/pt or BWV for $110s during COVID makes me annoyed looking at current prices!

I hadn't thought about using my initial points potentially at the new Poly but I guess that's something to consider. With you and RoseGold suggesting RIV, I guess I should include that in my spreadsheet of DVC maths...

Regarding your question about DVC having availability to create a "welcome home" trip, that would require buying Direct from Disney. Purchasing resale would not get you a Welcome Home trip. From recent experience, I was able to get my Welcome Home trip at Riviera just 60-days ahead of my dates during this past Run Disney weekend. The Member site had it completely booked, but DVC pulled a room out for us.

For us, we bought Direct as I wanted unrestricted points and have no interest in selling or paying attention to the resale market. I rented for nearly 15-years and was back and forth about direct vs the resale market.

Also, you get all the points the same day you pay your deposit regardless of how far out your closing date is, which is a nice perk.

Good luck!

Good to know. If they could swing a resort studio for Marathon week, that could be pretty tempting. I'm generally busy/work a crazy schedule flipping between days/nights and the convenience of direct is appealing but at my core I like a deal. Decisions, decisions!!

 

[Sandisw]

Thanks for the feedback. I guess it's comforting to see different opinions meaning there isn't one right way of going about purchasing.




Not sure that I'd plan to sell but for VGF/BLT/Poly1 or 2, I'd be in my 70s by the time they expired, that's a lot of life ahead of me so there's a decent chance I'd sell before they expired. In 2042, the kiddos in my life will be grown so probably need for fewer points by that point. The resale restrictions at RR aren't my favorite and probably have kept me from really considering it although I have rented there and it was beautiful.

BLT does check all the boxes but BWV has such a great points chart. Deciding between the two would be tough and could very well depend on which resale contract seemed to fit the best.



Could you explain why you think I'd eventually need 2 UYs? The UY is the one place I feel a bit weak in my DVC knowledge.




Thanks for the clarification on this and sorry for any confusion for people following!



Do we think that the current new-buyer incentives at VGF are still really great? It's hard to know what they were initially for add-on contracts and not be a tad disappointed. Just like knowing people got BLT for $125/pt or BWV for $110s during COVID makes me annoyed looking at current prices!

I hadn't thought about using my initial points potentially at the new Poly but I guess that's something to consider. With you and RoseGold suggesting RIV, I guess I should include that in my spreadsheet of DVC maths...



Good to know. If they could swing a resort studio for Marathon week, that could be pretty tempting. I'm generally busy/work a crazy schedule flipping between days/nights and the convenience of direct is appealing but at my core I like a deal. Decisions, decisions!!

Both RIV and VGF are my top two resorts. I did add on points at VGF as a member abs got a great price.

While the current incentives aren’t as great as they were for owners, I don’t think they will be better and for either of those resorts, for direct points, it’s a nice price.

To be fair, I don’t do resale anymore because I want points good everywhere, especially RIV and future resorts.

But I personally don’t think the current savings is enough to give up the potential extras with direct.

 

[CarolMN]

Could you explain why you think I'd eventually need 2 UYs? The UY is the one place I feel a bit weak in my DVC knowledge.

If you haven't already, spend some time with this thread - it will answer most use year questions -

Understanding Use Year

 

[Her Dotness]

The best way is whatever suits you.

I'm sure plenty would think us ill-advised for buying in direct to VGF at the off-sale price 5 years ago and adding a small direct contract a couple years later. We knew we wanted only VGF and were disinclined to hassle with the wait and possible ROFR.

We bit on a VGF resale in mid-February even though we knew direct sales would reopen soon. Got the contract for $10 less per point than buying at member direct rate with incentives.

So, calculate as suits you and buy wherever and whatever feels good to you. Otherwise, it's easy to over-complicate the matter.

 

[redboat45]

I'd get a September Use Year at whatever resort you want. The Boardwalk point chart is hard to beat I'd buy there resale now and then you can possibly add Poly in a couple of years if you still want that blue card.

 

[Royal Consort]

I did add on points at VGF as a member abs got a great price.

I wish I got abs for being a member

 

[Sandisw]

I wish I got abs for being a member

Hahaha…I hate when I type that!,, but I wish i had them too!